Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Fat Nyfe]

It seems most teams have improved this season except for Freo funnily enough, who finished the H&A season 1st.

 

[inbetween]

Ah, makes sense.

I'd definitely be interested in an all-time squiggle that never resets. Just for curiosity.

A more accurate measure of improvement from a season to season basis is simply compare squiggle positions at the end of one season to the end of the next, and measure the total displacement.

Perhaps Final Siren could prepare a graph for that if he has the time.

 

[DrEvil_]

Funny enough this last round Roby's team strength modifier would work better due to all the resting of players.

 

[sproketman]

This is what the squiggle predicted after round 1:

Hawthorn|2\Sydney Swans|2\Port Adelaide|6\Adelaide Crows|3\Fremantle|4\Richmond|1\West Coast Eagles|5\Essendon|7\North Melbourne|1\Geelong Cats|0\GWS Giants|0\Collingwood|0\Carlton|5\Western Bulldogs|8\Gold Coast Suns|1\Brisbane Lions|1\Melbourne|4\St Kilda|4

My ladder from the start of the season

Swans (3)
Hawks (1)
Port (5)
Freo (3)
North (3)
Dogs (0)
GWS (4)
Geelong (2)

Adelaide (2)
Tigers (5)
West Coast (9)
GCS (4)
Carlton (5)

Collingwood (2)
Melbourne (2)
Essendon (1)
Saints (3)
Brisbane (1)

+55. Underrated West Coast massively. Overrated Port and underrated Tigers pretty majorly.

Happy with the Dogs call. Made it based on their preseason.

 

[Illinois Nazi]

Here is the home & away season in not-so-squiggly lines:

Nathan Buckley printing this out to take to post-season assessment committee.

 

[Millky95]

When the site comes back up, anyone keen to do a graph from this late last year to now?

 

[evo]

very keen to see who squiggle rates the more likely in North v Rich

 

[cosmicr]

I reckon if you draw a line across the fringe of previous premiership winners, dogs, north and freo aren't in contention this year, and port adelaide unlucky.

 

[Rodney Dangerfield]

Amazing.
Freo finish on top and the squiggle makes it look like they can't leave the premiership zone or any where near it quickly enough.

 

[Scotty_WCE]

Back in Round 15 I made this post:

Firstly thanks to Final Siren for the amazing Squiggle, it's absolutely awesome and I've been hooked ever since I first stumbled across it!

I thought I'd plot where the eventual premiers were after Round 15 over the last 20 years, here's what I ended up with:

What interested me the most was:

- The "Round 15 eventual Premier Clump" seems have a similar spread to the "Premiership Clump" and is also trailing behind it. This indicates the premiers seem to really accelerate and hit their top form at the end of the season (yes, this may be obvious but it's good to see the Squiggle confirm it!).

- How far back some premiers came from (especially West Coast in 2006, which is the one just below Geelong currently).

- How rarely teams more defensive than where Richmond are now, at this stage of the season, end up winning the flag.

Anyway, just thought it was interesting

I decided to make the "Post-Home-And-Away-Season" version. Here's where the last 20 premiers were sitting after the last round of the the season:

Things to note:

- The clump seems to be quite biased towards attack, which shifts towards a more even spread after the finals.

- Indeed, Fremantle will have to defy history, as all of the last 20 premiers have had an offence rating of above 60, and 18/20 were above 65, compared to Freo's 57.

- If you're sitting near Hawthorn's 2013 and Brisbane's 2001 cup, you're a great chance. There are three dots right on top of each other, plus two nearby.

- If Hawthorn or West Coast win the flag, they will take second place for overall form on this graph, behind just Geelong 2011. Conversely, Fremantle would be around equal-last.

- I know everyone knows this, but... what a waste of a season for Port.

Let me know if anyone spots anything else interesting

 

[HoneyBadger35]

Funny enough this last round Roby's team strength modifier would work better due to all the resting of players.

Port 254.75
Freo -254.75

So...

 

[Dr Tigris]

Back in Round 15 I made this post:



I decided to make the "Post-Home-And-Away-Season" version. Here's where the last 20 premiers were sitting after the last round of the the season:

Things to note:

- The clump seems to be quite biased towards attack, which shifts towards a more even spread after the finals.

- Indeed, Fremantle will have to defy history, as all of the last 20 premiers have had an offence rating of above 60, and 18/20 were above 65, compared to Freo's 57.

- If you're sitting near Hawthorn's 2013 and Brisbane's 2001 cup, you're a great chance. There are three dots right on top of each other, plus two nearby.

- If Hawthorn or West Coast win the flag, they will take second place for overall form on this graph, behind just Geelong 2011. Conversely, Fremantle would be around equal-last.

- I know everyone knows this, but... what a waste of a season for Port.

Let me know if anyone spots anything else interesting

Putting a 45 degree line across the middle of the red dots = Swans and Tigers are on the upper half, Adelaide just below. Seems to indicate that it wouldn't be a shock for those teams to go all the way. But Hawks and Eagles are obviously way out there. It really looks like a game in 2 by the squiggle. Although they play first week.
Freo is in new territory compared to the red dots!! No chance or just foxing??

 

[Glenno23]

If WC and Hawks had managed to avoid each other in week 1, you could almost lock away that as the GF. It may still happen, but 1 of those teams will have to play 4 finals....

Gonna be an interesting finals series!

 

[Final Siren]

A more accurate measure of improvement from a season to season basis is simply compare squiggle positions at the end of one season to the end of the next, and measure the total displacement.

Perhaps Final Siren could prepare a graph for that if he has the time.

A team's end position is where they were at that point in time, though; it's not a measure of their whole season. For example, Collingwood had a decent 2014 but fell away badly at the end. Their finishing position is low because at that point they were easybeats, but they won 11 games.

 

[The Swans Blog]

I love that Squiggles has Freo going out in straight sets again

 

[TheMcManusNose]

I love that Squiggles has Freo going out in straight sets again

I think by now it's clear that Ross Lyon's ultimate goal is not winning a premiership, but is in fact the destruction of Final Siren's work. Of course the premiership should happen incidentally if this goal is achieved.

Ross Lyon = Roby.

 

[Roby]

I think by now it's clear that Ross Lyon's ultimate goal is not winning a premiership, but is in fact the destruction of Final Siren's work. Of course the premiership should happen incidentally if this goal is achieved.

Ross Lyon ≠ Roby.

EFA

• Fremantle's poor form (and the fact they have lost their first quarter each week in the last six weeks) puts them to their lowest ranking position ever, and nowhere near a flag, at all. Like I said a few weeks back if Freo win the premiership I will stop posting power rankings.

By the way below is the PR current forecast.

Current Finals Forecast

F1

West Coast Hawthorn 3 points

Fremante Sydney 2 points

Bulldogs Adelaide 3 points

Richmond North Melbourne 20 points

F2

Fremantle Richmond 17 points

Hawthorn Bulldogs 33 points

F3

Sydney Hawthorn 19 points

Fremantle West Coast 12 points


F4

Hawthorn West Coast 26 points

 

[Final Siren]

Finals Preview: West Coast vs Hawthorn

Look at those squiggles! Those are powerful, manly squiggles, made by two teams that spent the year hanging around premiership cups like they were full of free beer.

This game has the squiggle's top two teams. This might not sound like much, given the contempt with which the squiggle views Fremantle, but Hawks and Eagles are in extremely strong positions, the kind that are rarely beaten for the flag by an outsider. The winner of this game could do some serious charting, especially if they deliver a thumping.

And on top of that, this match offers excellent pre-game entertainment:

I'll do a lap of Subiaco nude before our home final if we finish in the top four.

Tipping

As discussed last year, I am unable to beat the simple rule of always tipping the home team, which would get you 125/160 correct tips at 78.1% if applied to all finals from 1995-2014 excluding the Grand ones.

By comparison, the usual squiggle algorithm ISTATE-91:12 has performed at 72.5% in those games, about the same as it goes in the regular season.

This year I'll add flagpole tips as well! Flagpole doesn't have a good finals record: only 65.0% for finals of the non-Grand variety (80% in GFs). But let's track it anyway.

SQUIGGLE:

West Coast 93 - 84 Hawthorn

HOMER: West Coast
FLAGPOLE: Hawthorn by 12​

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

Finals Preview: West Coast vs Hawthorn

Look at those squiggles! Those are powerful, manly squiggles, made by two teams that spent the year hanging around premiership cups like they were full of free beer.

This game has the squiggle's top two teams. This might not sound like much, given the contempt with which the squiggle views Fremantle, but Hawks and Eagles are in extremely strong positions, the kind that are rarely beaten for the flag by an outsider. The winner of this game could do some serious charting, especially if they deliver a thumping.

And on top of that, this match offers excellent pre-game entertainment:


Tipping

As discussed last year, I am unable to beat the simple rule of always tipping the home team, which would get you 125/160 correct tips at 78.1% if applied to all finals from 1995-2014 excluding the Grand ones.

By comparison, the usual squiggle algorithm ISTATE-91:12 has performed at 72.5% in those games, about the same as it goes in the regular season.

This year I'll add flagpole tips as well! Flagpole doesn't have a good finals record: only 65.0% for finals of the non-Grand variety (80% in GFs). But let's track it anyway.

SQUIGGLE:

West Coast 93 - 84 Hawthorn

HOMER: West Coast
FLAGPOLE: Hawthorn by 12​

Either or, it is going to be ******* close

 

[Beer n Skittles]

Wow Carlton really suck

 

[The Swans Blog]

Wheres the Freo/Swans squiggle??

 

[evo]

Amazing.
Freo finish on top and the squiggle makes it look like they can't leave the premiership zone or any where near it quickly enough.

one would think the Budwah news changes things a bit.

 

[Dizzy Stuff]

My ladder from the start of the season

Swans (3)
Hawks (1)
Port (5)
Freo (3)
North (3)
Dogs (0)
GWS (4)
Geelong (2)

Adelaide (2)
Tigers (5)
West Coast (9)
GCS (4)
Carlton (5)

Collingwood (2)
Melbourne (2)
Essendon (1)
Saints (3)
Brisbane (1)

+55. Underrated West Coast massively. Overrated Port and underrated Tigers pretty majorly.

Happy with the Dogs call. Made it based on their preseason.

Your Dogs call is certainly impressive. I don't think a single person on our board seriously had us making finals.

 

[Paul Kersey]

Swans with no Parker, Jack, Franklin and Smith. Squiggle predicting a GF appearance. I'm predicting a semi final exit or prelim mauling.

 

[jod23]

Ill say it again.

Squiggle is love. Squiggle is life.