Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

The LIVE Squiggle
It'd be cool to have a pre-season prediction squiggle. Have a squiggle essentially "predicting" the entire year before round 1 then compare at the end of the year?
 

AlibiMonday

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By the way, I'm taking suggestions on how to improve/modify that thing over the off-season.

I think the squiggle's largely fine as it is. The predictor is the killer app for me - it's elegant and based off sound fundamentals.

If you're looking for a couple of suggestions, here's some:
  • I think a nice supplement to the squiggle would be a table which adds defence and offence together. This would essentially symbolise a form ladder/strength ranking.
  • A tweak of the algorithm to progressively dilute the defence explosion that can happen when a team keeps it opposition to a minimal score. While mathematically winning 50pts:10pts is the same ratio as 250pts:50pts. The former seems to have a radical impact on the chart compared to the latter.
  • I'm a big fan of Champion Data's 3300 rule, which essentially weighs every game evenly. If there was a way to adjust the algorithm to avoid point inflation and take it back to a zero-sum, that would be good. I'm assuming this would enable even greater comparisons between seasons.
  • Some exotic selections would be interesting - largest movement per week/YTD (for/against), most stagnant, quarter-by-quarter sets,
  • Personally, I would love ISTATE 91-12 (and any other models) tip data available for the year. Unfortunately, we lose access to it at the end of the week :(
I'm sure I could dream up loads more suggestions, but that will do for now.

Thanks for being the best poster on BF.
 

JZTIME!

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Round 22, 2014

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Interactive squiggles!

Since it's late in the season and there are SQUIGGLY LINES EVERYWHERE, I have tried to clean up the chart a little.

North is hidden behind Geelong and Port at the moment.

Here is a version that draws a straight line from a team's starting position before Round 1 and now:

From pre-season to Round 22:
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On thing this highlights is how much ground GWS and Melbourne have made up over the course of the year. They are still bad (especially Melbourne), but there is no longer an enormous gap between those two teams and everyone else. We are getting back to something resembling a normal competition, where the worst teams are at least competitive.

Sydney's year is amazing. That's a very large gain, shifting into very impressive territory.

But it's hard to ignore all those premiership cups around Hawthorn. The Hawks have moved to their flag-winning position of 2013 like it's magnetic.
i like this version, clearly shows the emphasis we have put on defence this year. Being nearly the only side to change that way so much may explain some of the inconsistency. Good to see we have moved into the position of competing with Geelong and Port who have regularly been talked up as flag hopefuls. I think its where we go from here next year that could have us either competing for the top 4 or staying around the bottom of the 8
 

MagpieJo

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Ah well I guess we are toast now.

Enjoy the finals those that are left.

Freo is least painful option for me, takes it a looooong way away, and I don't know even 1 Freo supporter!
For footys sake, I'll say go Hawks! But s**t that hurts! Cheers
 
Apr 2, 2013
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Ah well I guess we are toast now.

Enjoy the finals those that are left.

Freo is least painful option for me, takes it a looooong way away, and I don't know even 1 Freo supporter!
For footys sake, I'll say go Hawks! But s**t that hurts! Cheers

Reckon Hawks had a good night last night. Didn't rock up early, Pies skills meant the lead didn't blow out, saw it was dangerous to flirt with the form, Pies were too stuffed to turn it into a real scrappy grind so had a nice tune up and will be set to go next Friday.

Given it is a very open year and you will need to win 3 finals against quality Hawthorn are the favourites imo. At their best near unstoppable and unless they have a bad day (possible) I just don't see any of the contenders going with them.
 

Cynic

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Reckon Hawks had a good night last night. Didn't rock up early, Pies skills meant the lead didn't blow out, saw it was dangerous to flirt with the form, Pies were too stuffed to turn it into a real scrappy grind so had a nice tune up and will be set to go next Friday.

Given it is a very open year and you will need to win 3 finals against quality Hawthorn are the favourites imo. At their best near unstoppable and unless they have a bad day (possible) I just don't see any of the contenders going with them.

If we beat Geelong we're a good shot. If not we're not going to beat Sydney or Fremantle at home.
 
Apr 19, 2013
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If we beat Geelong we're a good shot. If not we're not going to beat Sydney or Fremantle at home.
Depends on injuries but I'd be inclined to agree. The biggest final is without a doubt, Hawks vs Cats, because the winner will be almost guaranteed a finals spot, and will play either Port or Fremantle (Assuming Swans & Port win). I would say that any top 4 team at home should win their final regardless who they play.

It was interesting in 2012 finals series that the semi's and prelim's were really close, and same for the semi's last year, regardless the teams or odds.
 
Sep 11, 2008
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That's what the interactive squiggle is! Click the "Start" button then "Next Round" repeatedly to play through the season.

By the way, I'm taking suggestions on how to improve/modify that thing over the off-season.

Include a 6 day break disadvantage of 3-6 points, and back to back 6 day break of 9-12 points or something along those lines would be good. Would be interesting to see if it improved the tipping results or not
 

Final Siren

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End of Home & Away season, Round 23, 2014

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Interactive squiggle!

A very attacking round, with many teams sliding upward and left. (Only two went rightwards any distance: Richmond and Hawthorn.)

Geelong, Port Adelaide, Fremantle, and North Melbourne all hustled a little closer to the premiership cup cluster. So they're like, "We're coming," and the Hawks are sitting there surrounded by cups, all like, "Bring it."

I'll break out some individual squiggles a little later.
 

MC_9

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If I am not mistaken, the Squiggle now rates Sydney and Hawthorn equally.
 

Final Siren

Mr Squiggle
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Squiggly Finals Preview!


Hawks vs Cats
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The Hawks have been the squiggle's darlings all year, not only charting in the perfect area, but staying there all year and being the only team to do so. In 2013, the Hawks held a less defensive position, sitting just to the left of the Kangaroos 1999 premiership cup before heading rightwards in the finals. And that's how 2014 started for the Hawks as well, until Round 7 when they demolished the Saints 175-30 and zoomed upwards and right. Since then they've fallen, but only to the same area they finished after last year's flag, which is a truly excellent place to be. It usually takes a team all year to reach there, and they do it in a victorious Grand Final: the Hawks have made it a Home & Away camp site.

The Cats have stayed thereabouts throughout 2014, despite a mid-season slump that saw them lose to Gold Coast and (even worse, from the squiggle's point of view) struggle to beat Carlton, Essendon, the Bulldogs, and the Giants. Geelong seem to have a knack for falling over the line in close games against poor opposition, though, so the question is whether they take the foot off the pedal, and if so, how much. The squiggle assumes all teams are trying equally, and will underrate a team that coasts to wins.

Squiggle tip:
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Hawthorn 104 - 79 Geelong
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For finals, I've also rounded up my 10 best-performing algorithms of the year (including ISTATE-91:12) for tipping. None of these are actually geared to finals in particular, or take into account any extra data; they just do different things with it. The best-tipping algorithm for the H&A season in 2014 was BOUNCE-91:12 (discussed earlier in thread) with 145 correct tips. ISTATE-91:12, which is the regular squiggle algorithm, finished the H&A season with 138 tips.

Top 10 algorithms: 10 Hawks (margin ranging from 13 to 28pts), 0 Cats.

Swans vs Dockers
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After a poor start, the Swans ignited in Round 5 and rocketed into good territory over the next few rounds. They've done everything right as far as the squiggle is concerned except kick big scores. Whether this matters remains to be seen; it's a defensive season, and finals are often low-scoring. Certainly the Swan's defence is amazing, with opponents almost always held to around 10 goals.

The Dockers have followed their 2013 script, hanging around in the 55-60/75-80 area for most of the season and heading northwards late. Despite a few extreme results (the Saints loss, keeping Brisbane to 22 points), it's been a consistent year for the Dockers, with no real trend in any direction.

Squiggle tip:
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Sydney 79 - 63 Fremantle
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Top 10 algorithms: 10 Swans (margin ranging from 8 to 19pts), 0 Dockers.

Roos vs Bombers
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North Melbourne have shown a convincing ability to defy the squiggle at every turn, so I may have no insight to share. But they began the year with a firm shift toward the defensive, then circled the same general area despite losing all the games they should have won and winning all the games they should have lost. The Roos don't look to be genuine flag contenders yet, and the squiggle doesn't think they've improved all that much from last year, despite a far better ladder position.

The Bombers started a long way back, due to their horrendous end to 2013. They've displayed a clear trend towards a more defensive game during the year, although the last few weeks have not been good. They are the lowest-ranked of the top-8 teams, and the only finalist to sit outside the squiggle's top 8 teams (at 10th, below Adelaide and West Coast). An interesting question, though, is what kind of attitude the Bombers bring this week, having being denied finals in 2013: the squiggle doesn't measure motivation or emotion but the Dons may have plenty.

Squiggle Tip:
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North Melbourne 85 - 74 Essendon
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Top 10 algorithms: 10 Roos (5-20 points), 0 Bombers.

Power vs Tigers
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With one of the year's most interesting squiggles, the Power zoomed upwards early, becoming a high-scoring team. Then the wheels fell off, and they regressed almost exactly along the same path. The last few weeks, though, have shown a dramatic change, as Port kept the opposition to very low scores (Sydney 84, GC 47, Carlton 37), then put in a highly competitive effort against Fremantle. In fact, the squiggle thinks the Power would have beaten the Dockers had last weekend's match been held in a neutral venue. Three or four weeks isn't really enough to confirm a trend, but the downward spiral has certainly been broken, and the Power are in a pretty good place.

Ah, Richmond. What can I say about you that hasn't been screamed in anguish by a hundred thousand tortured fans. The Tigers were never that bad this year, according to the squiggle, with a series of close losses and honourable defeats. But they were never that great, either. The 9-win streak has displayed an improved defence, but for a team in the midst of a history-making revival, it's not a huge amount of movement. What's really been missing for the squiggle is a thumping: it would have liked to have seen the Tigers put someone away, rather than just fall over the top of them.

Squiggle tip:
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Port Adelaide 85 - 67 Richmond
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Top 10 algorithms: 10 Power (12-25 points), 0 Tigers.
 

Final Siren

Mr Squiggle
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Final Siren is there an algorithm that gives Sydney a 1 or 2 goal disadvantage for playing in the wet and also at ANZ? ;)
ANZ: Yes, there are VENUE algorithms that consider this. They analyze the difference between the expected and actual result and assume that some of it is due to the venue. But it's not enough to convince them to tip Freo.

Weather: No, none of the algorithms consider this.
 
Oct 4, 2005
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Interesting. In terms of offence Hawks are killing it, but they are on the lower edge of the premiership cup field defence wise.

Similarly, in terms of defence Freo and Sydney are killing it, but are on the lower edge in terms of offence.

Geelong are on lower edge for offence and defence.

No team is really in the sweet spot yet.
 
Apr 19, 2013
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Weather: No, none of the algorithms consider this.
Weather introduces too much bias and there's too much error in forming an educated analysis. You would have to develop some sort of trend of team vs team at a venue with specific weather conditions to be able to objectively analyze it. This is only possible in retrospect, not so useful in forecasting, unless of course you use Roby's method of "make the s**t up as you go". Also, the data will be irrelevant, because you're only looking at the last 1-3 years, and some teams don't play at venues (eg. Swans don't play Freo at Subi & vice-versa at ANZ, Pies @ SCG).
 
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