- Aug 18, 2009
- 4,229
- 17,495
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Thread starter
- #1,926
Preliminary Finals Preview (2014)
Two teams that are almost identical on the ATTACK axis but very different in terms of DEFENCE. This means that the Roos and Swans tend to kick similar scores, but the Swans hold their opposition to less.
That's on average. In terms of individual results, both teams have been all over the place, creating very long squiggles. In Sydney's case, it's not hard to understand: there's a poor start to the season followed by a form surge, and thereafter they chart in a fairly consistent area. North, though, seem to change from week to week; for example, holding St. Kilda to 3 goals one week then the next allowing through 16 from Carlton.
But North Melbourne's last month or two has been solid - they're on a 6-game winning streak - and, for North, consistent, with big wins over the weaker teams (beating GWS by 75, the Bulldogs by 50, and Melbourne by 30) and small wins over the stronger ones (beating Adelaide by 7, Essendon by 12, and Geelong by 6).
But it will take another level to overcome Sydney. The Swans haven't pulled out a really top performance for a while, but during the home & away season they showed plenty.
Squiggle tip:
Sydney 92 - 66 North Melbourne
Top Algorithms: If the game were in Melbourne, it'd be a tough call. But at ANZ Stadium, it's 10 tips for the Swans (by 18-36 pts) and no love for the Roos.
A playoff between the two most attacking teams in the comp, which should make for a spectacle. Port are in blistering form, mounting a huge resurgence from their late-season slump, while Hawthorn have been unmovable, occupying the same area of the chart since Round 8 - very similar to what they did last year, en route to winning the flag.
Both teams are in prime squiggle territory, which means they're displaying the kind of form that has won the most flags since 1994. In fact, only a handful of teams have finished around here and not won the flag. Unless Port get blown away, and pushed out of the area, there will be one more after Saturday.
Where North and Sydney are similar in terms of ATTACK, the Hawks and the Power have similar DEFENCE scores. This means that they tend to hold their opponents to the same kind of scores, but the Hawks kick more themselves.
By the way! Anyone walking to this game from Flinders St station, if you see a 9-year old busking with the violin, that's my daughter! Stop and say hi to us.
Squiggle tip:
Hawthorn 103 - 84 Port Adelaide
Top Algorithms: It's unanimous for Hawthorn, by 11-25 points, although Grand Final specialist OFFDEF-75 likes Port (by 12). That algorithm isn't included in the top bunch, though, since it hasn't been great outside of Grand Finals. What it means, though, is that Port can justifiably be considered the form team of the finals right now.
Swans vs Kangaroos
Two teams that are almost identical on the ATTACK axis but very different in terms of DEFENCE. This means that the Roos and Swans tend to kick similar scores, but the Swans hold their opposition to less.
That's on average. In terms of individual results, both teams have been all over the place, creating very long squiggles. In Sydney's case, it's not hard to understand: there's a poor start to the season followed by a form surge, and thereafter they chart in a fairly consistent area. North, though, seem to change from week to week; for example, holding St. Kilda to 3 goals one week then the next allowing through 16 from Carlton.
But North Melbourne's last month or two has been solid - they're on a 6-game winning streak - and, for North, consistent, with big wins over the weaker teams (beating GWS by 75, the Bulldogs by 50, and Melbourne by 30) and small wins over the stronger ones (beating Adelaide by 7, Essendon by 12, and Geelong by 6).
But it will take another level to overcome Sydney. The Swans haven't pulled out a really top performance for a while, but during the home & away season they showed plenty.
Squiggle tip:
Top Algorithms: If the game were in Melbourne, it'd be a tough call. But at ANZ Stadium, it's 10 tips for the Swans (by 18-36 pts) and no love for the Roos.
Hawks vs Power
A playoff between the two most attacking teams in the comp, which should make for a spectacle. Port are in blistering form, mounting a huge resurgence from their late-season slump, while Hawthorn have been unmovable, occupying the same area of the chart since Round 8 - very similar to what they did last year, en route to winning the flag.
Both teams are in prime squiggle territory, which means they're displaying the kind of form that has won the most flags since 1994. In fact, only a handful of teams have finished around here and not won the flag. Unless Port get blown away, and pushed out of the area, there will be one more after Saturday.
Where North and Sydney are similar in terms of ATTACK, the Hawks and the Power have similar DEFENCE scores. This means that they tend to hold their opponents to the same kind of scores, but the Hawks kick more themselves.
By the way! Anyone walking to this game from Flinders St station, if you see a 9-year old busking with the violin, that's my daughter! Stop and say hi to us.
Squiggle tip:
Top Algorithms: It's unanimous for Hawthorn, by 11-25 points, although Grand Final specialist OFFDEF-75 likes Port (by 12). That algorithm isn't included in the top bunch, though, since it hasn't been great outside of Grand Finals. What it means, though, is that Port can justifiably be considered the form team of the finals right now.
