Racing Form Factors

[Duritz]

OK, let's have a discussion. This was inspired because I was talking with my old man recently about the 1986 Melbourne Cup. I was a 10 year old at the time, and he and I caught a train to the races. On the train, I devised a points allocation method for doing the form. I allocated points for their distance strike rate, track strike rate, track and distance, going, and overall strike rate. I think I also gave points based on their recent finishing positions. Anyway, I totalled them up, and it selected At Talaq on top. I had $10 on him, up he got at 5/1, and the addicted gambling mess you see before you 28 years later is the result of that.

So, what factors do you consider when you're doing the form? Traditionally, the ones I listed above are fairly standard ones. If you look in most form guides they'll readily give you an indication of the horses distance, track, going and overall ability.

But what's the best way to quantify these factors? Is looking at one horse's strike rate above another's a reliable enough method, or not? I would love to have access to the points method I invented all those years ago, if only to see how a 10 year old approached it, but I have a fair idea of what I did, anyway. It was something like 0 to 5 points for each factor, totalled up.

Roger Biggs, and others, use IV (Impact Value) figures to quantify a horses chance given the prevailing conditions.

How do you approach form factors, and how do you quantify them, and what form factors do you find are important?

 

[ricardogp]

You had $10 to punt with when you were 10???

Sent from my HTC One S using Tapatalk

 

[Duritz]

You had $10 to punt with when you were 10???

Sent from my HTC One S using Tapatalk

I had earned it working for dad.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

As OP has mentioned there are many factors.

Speed of the race (speed map) and class drop are two i like to identity that give me the most value i think. Two that jump to mind in such categories that i tipped here were Smokin' Joey in the Goodwood at 40-1 (speed map) and Are There Any this past weekend who should have won by panels if not caught three wide facing the breeze (class drop). Spruik horses and punters favourites are always great to bet against if you can identify their undoing in a particular race.

Tracks can be important: Rail position is obviously a huge factor on certain tracks such as Moonee Valley, Rosehill and Doomben. I've generally stayed clear of on pacers when betting at Flemington (because of the long straight) and that has served me pretty well.

First and foremost though i look for is if the horse is a chance at the distance its is running, you can eliminate 50% of the field sometimes just by doing your research on that.

Track surface is a minor detail for me unless its heavy 8 + ground.

Each to their own, find something that works for you and stick to it, don't let betting drifts worry you, if you have done the work back your judgement.

 

[KardiniaPark]

When racing on the Kensington surface, throw out form guide, crack a tinny and mow the lawns cos you've got no hope!

 

[iluvparis]

Class is my main factor - although obviously very difficult/abstract to quantify numerically.

You can have track, distance, barrier, jockey, trainer, surface going for you but if the horse isn't good enough it won't win.

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

I just look for the fastest horse in the race

 

[Keystone agony]

Class is my main factor - although obviously very difficult/abstract to quantify numerically.

You can have track, distance, barrier, jockey, trainer, surface going for you but if the horse isn't good enough it won't win.

For a novice iluvparis can you explain to me all the types of class ect and what is required to get to each class briefly? Or someone else

Ie: I know there is for example of what im looking for

Maiden races: When all horses are yet to win a race in it
Group 1 - the best horses
Group 2 - slightly worse
G3 - Slightly worse again

 

[Keystone agony]

Distance, Track, Weather, Barrier, Weight, Jockey, Surface are the main ones i consider. But i havnt been able to outside of the MC been able to pick my nose with horses.

 

[iluvparis]

For a novice iluvparis can you explain to me all the types of class ect and what is required to get to each class briefly? Or someone else

Sorry for confusion - when I said class I meant the 'abiility' of the horse.

In terms of the rankings of the different race classes from Best to Worst it is.

Group 1 - open to anyone (sometimes Maidens can't enter - although they do let Maiden cats into races as big as the Cox Plate )
Group 2 - open to anyone
Group 3 - open to anyone
Open - open to anyone
Class 6 - have won at most 6 races
Class 5 - have won at most 5 races
Class 4 - have won at most 4 races
Class 3 - have won at most 3 races
Class 2 - have won at most 2 races
Class 1 - have won at most 1 race
Maiden - have never won a race

For benchmark races - the higher the number the better the class (Benchmark 90 > Benchmark 80).

 

[Keystone agony]

Sorry for confusion - when I said class I meant the 'abiility' of the horse.

In terms of the rankings of the different race classes from Best to Worst it is.

Group 1 - open to anyone (sometimes Maidens can't enter - although they do let Maiden cats into races as big as the Cox Plate )
Group 2 - open to anyone
Group 3 - open to anyone
Open - open to anyone
Class 6 - have won at most 6 races
Class 5 - have won at most 5 races
Class 4 - have won at most 4 races
Class 3 - have won at most 3 races
Class 2 - have won at most 2 races
Class 1 - have won at most 1 race
Maiden - have never won a race

For benchmark races - the higher the number the better the class (Benchmark 90 > Benchmark 80).

Really appreciate that, gonna try and watch a bit more horses and start really small once i start picking a couple.

Does every race have a "Benchmark rating" ? iluvparis

 

[terminators]

Track bias is a big one, aligned with speed map. Barriers also vital, plenty of horses under their true price from a wide gate. A wide gate / apprentice combination recipe for disaster.

In summary, back anything from Shetland pony up trained by Waller

 

[Keystone agony]

Track bias is a big one, aligned with speed map. Barriers also vital, plenty of horses under their true price from a wide gate. A wide gate / apprentice combination recipe for disaster.

In summary, back anything from Shetland pony up trained by Waller

What was Wallers record last spring?

 

[iluvparis]

Really appreciate that, gonna try and watch a bit more horses and start really small once i start picking a couple.

Does every race have a "Benchmark rating" ? iluvparis

Theoretically every race does have a Benchmark rating, although it is often not directly apparent from the form guide. One you get to Listed races and up you don't really need to worry about it too much.

But the ones I was referring to are races which are for horses who have a rating no greater than the number listed (i.e. Benchmark 90 means the highest a horse can be rated to run in the race is 90). Although in some states, if a horse has a rating higher than the maximum, in can still run buit will just carry more weight.

 

[kickazz]

Obviously it is complicated, a few 'different' things I look at:

- Poor Barrier: - less of a problem/potential value if a good jockey on board. If an apprentice, no not touch.
- Fan faves/ spruiked horses: Prices are market driven, so value can often be found going agaisnt a 'false favourite'
- For all factors oulined in OP, go the extra step and look at the horse's half-sibling's records. Especially applicable for the younger horses. It is a bit time consuming though.
- Be careful with horses who have 'just missed' and come a close second a few times and seem primed for a win. I recon there are some that just do not have the 'winning instinct' and perptually finish within half a length or so, munching a lot of punters' dough.
- Don't listen to any tips from the guy coming clear last in iluvparis' weekly horse betting comp.

 

[Hamingja]

Sorry for confusion - when I said class I meant the 'abiility' of the horse.

In terms of the rankings of the different race classes from Best to Worst it is.

Group 1 - open to anyone (sometimes Maidens can't enter - although they do let Maiden cats into races as big as the Cox Plate )
Group 2 - open to anyone
Group 3 - open to anyone
Open - open to anyone
Class 6 - have won at most 6 races
Class 5 - have won at most 5 races
Class 4 - have won at most 4 races
Class 3 - have won at most 3 races
Class 2 - have won at most 2 races
Class 1 - have won at most 1 race
Maiden - have never won a race

For benchmark races - the higher the number the better the class (Benchmark 90 > Benchmark 80).

You've been overseas for a while now if you are talking class 1-6

That's like two systems back now they are phasing out the restricted rating races for benchmarks.

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Have a read of this:

http://www.horseracinginfo.com.au/betting-guide/australian-race-types.htm

 

[Hamingja]

Provincial Ratings Based Races
Open Handicap
0 - 89 (Class 5 or 6 Provincial)
0 - 78 (Class 4 Provincial)
0 - 72 (Class 2 or 3 Provincial
0 - 68 (Class 1 or 2 Provincial)
0 - 62 (Weak Class 1 Provincial)

Yeah they moved from classes to this 0-xx business and now everything is going to move to the NSW style of benchmarks.

I think Queensland still run with classes but they are 20 years behind so don't count.

 

[Jugada]

Class 1, 2, 3 etc was so much better than the ratings and benchmark system

 

[Santoz]

Like the above poster said.

Back anything out of the Waller & Hawkes stable this season.

They've obviously got the best chemist ...

 

[Hamingja]

Or just a *load of horses.

How do you decide which one of the 9 to back that Waller has nominated for the Warwick Stakes, or the 10 he has nominated for the Show County Quality.

 

[rideclutch]

How do you approach form factors, and how do you quantify them, and what form factors do you find are important?

As a rule of thumb, class would be my most important factor.

It's sometimes as easy as saying "Gregers is better than mares grade" and pushing the chips in. But even with limited gallopers, dropping back into a 58 from a 64 is generally a good recipe. Conversely, you can get good overs on those racing in a strong 64 at somewhere like Ballarat/Bendigo but then turning up on a Sunday at Wang/Wodonga in a 70 which is no stronger but you get the weight relief

Horse's level of fitness also more relevant for me at the bush/provincials rather than Metro/Sat grade.

 

[iluvparis]

Agree fitness is also key but I have NFI what a horse is supposed to look like so generally just have to use trainer as a proxy for fitness.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Agree fitness is also key but I have NFI what a horse is supposed to look like so generally just have to use trainer as a proxy for fitness.

NOT a horse :

NOT a horse:

HORSE :

 

[Lensen]

I think Queensland still run with classes but they are 20 years behind so don't count.

you take that back

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