Preview Rd 23: Brisbane Lions v Western Bulldogs

[POBT]

Date: Sunday, 2 September 2012

Time:

4.40pm local time

Venue:

Gabba

Ticket Info:

Here

TV and Radio Coverage:

All areas: Live on Fox Footy
Qld, Regional NT, Remote/Central NSW&SA: Live on 7mate

Social Media:

TBA

Last time they met:

Lions by 58 (Round 13, 2012)

Betting Odds

Lions $1.20: Dogs $4.00

Weather Report
Fine, mostly sunny. Min 10 Max 23

 

[POBT]

Preview by Tom FC

Saturday 17 April 2010 was the last time we hosted the Dogs at the Gabba. We ran out four goal winners to set ourselves up for what was sure to be a great 2010 season. The Dogs had stood between us and a preliminary final the year before, but with Fevola, Raines, Staker and Maguire in the team we were a different proposition, and only goalkicking yips had kept it close at the end. Brennan, Rischitelli, and Johnstone were amongst the best on ground, and even Proud, Selwood and Hawksley contributed. We had four wins from four games, everything was going right, and we were all set for a big season and a bright future.

So much has happened since these two teams last played at this venue that its hard to remember how we all felt that night. Not only did we win just seven of our next 40 games, but many of the players we were staking our future on left for other clubs or just failed to make the grade. In two and a half years, we've gone from jubilation to shock to despair and now, I believe, to some genuine flickers of hope. One thing we can take from round 4 2010 is that you never really know what's in the immediate future, and maybe 2013 will be a very different season from 2012, for whatever reason.

The Stakes

One other thing that's different from the last time these two teams played is the stakes involved. Neither team is getting near the finals, this game will have no impact on the Brownlow or Coleman medals, and by the time the match kicks off at 4.40pm on Sunday the media will be too busy analysing the next week's finals matchups to pay attention to what's happening up in Brisbane. Still, I reckon there's more on the line for us than you might think. Footy clubs ask a lot of their players in the off season and it'll make it that much easier for them to put in the necessary work if they feel that success isn't far off, and winning three straight games at the end of an improved 10-12 season gives us a good case to say that the team is on the right track. It also takes some pressure off the football department, and whatever you think of Voss as a coach, it's got to be better for the team over the off-season if everyone is confident that the same people in charge now will be around at the end of 2013.

I think there's a bit riding on the game for the Dogs as well, for similar reasons. They've had a really tough year, with not much to smile about, only playing the Giants, Suns, Demons and Power once each. It's been a long time since their last win, and while they put in a respectable effort at Kardinia Park last week, this is their last chance to taste victory before the season ends, and build some confidence amongst their young team.

The Game

After watching the way we were belted out of the middle for three quarters last week against the lowly Power, its a bit worrying to think about what a midfield featuring Boyd, Griffen, Cooney and my tip for the rising star Mitch Wallis might do to us, particularly with big Will Minson setting it up in the ruck. The Dogs are likely to see more of the ball than we are, but the problem tends to start once their handful of elite midfielders feed the ball to the kids they have running around. Addison, Wood, Picken, Jong, Howard and Smith are all honest workers, and occasionally capable of good moments, but Voss probably isn't tearing out his thinning hair wondering how he can possibly shut down all those attacking options.

Its down back that we're likely to have a real advantage. The Dogs are seriously lacking a tall option up forward, trying Roughead, Grant, Campbell, and even Williams and Lake up there this season without much success. Giansiracusa has been their leading goalkicker this year, but he picked up a knee injury and will miss. Its fair to say that if we can keep the pressure on the midfield, Hanley, Drummond and Adcock are likely to get a fair few chances to rebound back the other way. And when we get it down there, Brown is likely to make life difficult for Brian Lake, who's been battling with injury. With Lisle our only other real marking option up forward, it'll be crucial to move the ball quickly into the forwardline and find options in space, like we did when we last played the Doggies back in round 13.

I imagine Raines will go to Griffen, who has been the most damaging of the Dogs' midfielders lately. Boyd's possession average this season would make an opening batsman proud, but he won't hurt us as much. The reliable Picken might go to Black, but McCartney might decide that Rockliff or Rich are more of a threat.

The Verdict

Right now you can get $5 on a Bulldogs win, which seems a bit long to me after a pretty indifferent performance by us last week. The Dogs are likely to be fired up, and they probably have the edge out of the middle. The problem is whether they can go with us around the ground. Injuries and inexperience have left them lacking in depth, and its likely that Rich, Zorko, Black and Rockliff will all be able to get free at various times and drive us forward. We've been jumped early a few times this season and it wouldn't surprise me if the same happened on Sunday, but its hard to see the Western forwardline racking up a big enough score that we won't be able to run it down once their kids start to tire.

I think this one might be close for a while, but we should run over them in the end. That'll give us our third win in a row, the first time we've managed that since we last played the Dogs at the Gabba.

The big difference between the Lions of 2011 and the Lions of 2012 is that this year we've won the games we're supposed to win. This game is our chance to put the full stop on a season of solid improvement, and give the club and its loyal supporters reason to think that we're heading towards the future we all dreamed of back in round 4 2010.

 

[POBT]

Cheers Tom FC for the preview. Really finished the season off with a bang.

 

[Haso]

Are those our shortest odds for the year?

 

[POBT]

Are those our shortest odds for the year?

According to the GWS match preview thread, we were $1.14 for that game.

Although, that number came from the old BigFooty Odds page. I've been using the AFL website odds (TABSportsbet) since the change to the new software and, for this week, I used Sportsbet odds as the AFL website didn't have any odds up.

 

[Toffee Lion]

Great preview Tom.

Second week in a row I'm expecting a win from the boys, last chance of the year for some of the kids to stand up once more and prove to Vossy and Co that they have the talent to deliver in 2013 and onward.

Lions by 31 and Beams to have 22 disposals and 2 goals.

 

[Cousin Jed]

Saturday 17 April 2010 was the last time we hosted the Dogs at the Gabba. We ran out four goal winners to set ourselves up for what was sure to be a great 2010 season. The Dogs had stood between us and a preliminary final the year before, but with Fevola, Raines, Staker and Maguire in the team we were a different proposition, and only goalkicking yips had kept it close at the end. Brennan, Rischitelli, and Johnstone were amongst the best on ground, and even Proud, Selwood and Hawksley contributed. We had four wins from four games, everything was going right, and we were all set for a big season and a bright future.

Gosh. Fortunately we aren't playing the Demons next week.

 

[Lace Out]

The last home and away game for the season.

Let's hope it's not 'unusual'.

 

[Harris Specter]

Top preview Tom, a real good match-up, but if our history at the Gabba is anything to go by, we've got this.
But the Bulldogs will be up for a challenge and want to win to cap off a dissapointing season.
Lions by 6 goals

 

[jackess]

The Bulldogs do have 2 guys retiring so that will spur them on. I think this game is 50/50. If we play like we did last week we could lose by 8-10 goals but if we play like we did in the last 3 quarters against the Crows we could win by 10+ goals.

 

[Toffee Lion]

Gosh. Fortunately we aren't playing the Demons next week.

Gosh that game was so depressing to go to.

When we left we just said "Probably just a bad week".

 

[blynd_freddie]

Great preview Tom, $5 odds for the doggies hey? Nup, my money will stay in my sky rocket - the warm glow created by your optimistic preview of not only round 23 but the rounds in 2013 - here's hoping you are spot on.

Gosh. Fortunately we aren't playing the Demons next week.

You sir are a funny man, Carl Jung gave us such words like archetype, synchronicity but it is your ability to round up the boards collective unconsciousness and post it that tickles my fancy - very good!

 

[Whabbaghetti]

I don't see why the Dogs would even suggest bringing Lake back unless they are just trying to make Lions worry about him at team selection. Injury cloud, long trip to Queensland and a rebuilding side in the final round of the season is more then enough reason for him to miss.

Looking forward to cruising down to see this. Have bookmarked this game as a must see for months, mainly to avoid the risk that someone will retire. I missed the final game last season because I was convinced that Luke wouldn't retire and I will not make that mistake again (have seen him play live twice since though).

 

[lions_den]

lions by 18

 

[patfullfankezz]

I think after last weekend the boys will be fired up.

- In front of a home crowd, on Members Appreciation Night of all things
- A chance to win three on the trot
- A chance to cement this season as the season we started turning it around

Lions by 70 in a cracker. Wouldn't be surprised if it really blew out in the last quarter.

 

[Full Wingspan]

Lions by 70 in a cracker.

lolwut?

 

[Full Wingspan]

Ohhh I geddit. It'll be a cracker for Lions fans.

 

[Caiphus]

No Lake? Browny to kick 21 and steal the Coleman then.

 

[lionshine]

Good preview! Cant wait for this final game of the season. I hope there are no injuries and we smash these little Doggies.

GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO LIIIOOOOOONNNNNNNNNNSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[____]

Twilight home game should be interesting, Fingers crossed for a big turnout so we might get less Saturday Night games next year!

 

[Lions_Fan]

Lions by 28. Brown to kick 4, Redden to get 32 possies

 

[PTizzle]

I have rated the Doggies performances the last two weeks, but their total lack of a forward-line is still worrying for them.

Hawkins monstered Roughead and Jordan will probably play on our Jordan. So fingers crossed he can kick a couple.

Midfield battle will be interesting but without Lake we'll have too much quality up forward and down back. Lions by 30, but the Dogs will fight.

 

[alscotoz]

Actually think we can win this by around 10 goals

 

[Balony_pony16]

flying to the GC and will go to the Game live...first Gabba game for at least 5 years for me...cant wait.

On the game, I want to see Voss get a few youngsters in the team for a last/first taste for the rigors of AFL (Docherty/Yeo)...ie. not play last chance salon types like Hawksley.

IN: Docherty, Yeo, maybe Bartlett?
OUT: Hawksley, Bewick, maybe drummond or lestor

Docherty in particular should get a quick taste of the speed of AFL then get ready for a big pre-season

 

[____]

flying to the GC and will go to the Game live...first Gabba game for at least 5 years for me...cant wait.

2nd game in a row for you