Preview Rd 4, 2015 - Brisbane Lions vs West Coast

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Date - Sunday, April 26
Time – 1:10pm AEST
Venue - Gabba

Preview by Rubix WingMan

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Well, I don’t think anyone could have predicted things to go this bad for us in 2015. Losing key players to injuries, not looking like the same team that finished off last year. Generally, after all good work done by the media in the off-season, it has come crashing down like my GPA in 4h year.

Looking ahead to this game, West Coast fans will be disappointed at last week’s showing against cross-town rivals Fremantle. Regardless of them pulling it back, they barely showed a whimper in the first 3 quarters. Before Fremantle tired allowing the margin to be a bit more respectable. As for the Lions, it’s been a sadder outlook, with a 12 point margin in Round 1 being the closest game we’ve had all season. Thrashings by North and Richmond haven’t made the percentage look too good. Sitting in dead last, this is as rough as it gets. The way I look at it, it can’t get much worse can it?

Last time they met:


Round 17, 2014 @ Gabba – West Coast 11.10 76 beat Brisbane 9.10 64


Forward line
With Close going down to injury in the game against North Melbourne, the forward line is going to have its work cut out with none of the forward line options working out. There’s no doubt that the Eagles’ forward line will pose high problems for the already weakened Lions defence.

Depending on whether the coaching panel decide to bring in Leuenberger, this week will be yet another snapshot into the future of the Lions without Brown. McGovern went down with injury last week, and he’s a solid defender that they would rather have out on the field. This will weaken an already fragile defence line for the Eagles. Essentially, it’ll be the test of both teams’ weakest areas.

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Staker and McStay will continue to be our main targets up forward and may have a young forward in Andrews join them. For us to dominate this facet of the game, the midfield will have to lower their eyes and look for smart options. Simply kicking it long to an outnumbered contest, or kicking it high to Green in a contest won’t do any good for both our tall forwards and crumbers, as the Eagles defence mop up with ease. Our small forwards in Zorko, Christensen, Green and Bewick will have a job to do this week to aid the three forwards in McStay, Staker and Andrews(?). We should be able to force a few goals through forward pressure and keeping it in the forward 50, forcing turnovers and mistakes from the Eagles’ defenders. Forward pressure is key for the Lions this week, and if we can have stoppages near the forward 50, it will go a long way towards winning the game.

Midfield
The midfield stocks will receive a huge boost, not only with how good a player he is, but also the on-field leadership that he provides for the young troops. Rockliff looks to return to the team, with a remarkable recovery after suffering broken ribs barely 3 weeks ago. He will be another big body in the middle.

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There was talk that perhaps Mayes might be on the chopping block after a few average performances. I for one, believe that we still need his elite decision making. It’s obvious he isn’t going too well, but we can’t afford to play more kids when we’ve already got one of the youngest teams in the league. We’ve seen Priddis falter a bit when copping a hard tag, and I’m sure Leppa will be aware of his impact in the game. Hope he has a task for Bewick/Robinson who can tag. Watching last week’s game against Fremantle, the Eagles’ midfielders were found out around the stoppages. They got smashed in the clearances, with Natanui’s taps going down Fremantle’s throats. Sure, people will talk about the Masten and the Gaff, but a very talented player to watch out for is young gun Wellingham. He has had a very solid year so far and the Lions will need to make sure he doesn’t run free.Not many teams could have resisted well against the rampaging Dockers’ midfield. They couldn’t get the hands on the ball, much like the Lions for much of this season, so it’ll be a great contest this weekend.

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The Lions will also need to be at their very best defensively if they want to win this. The 3 R’s, coupled with some handy wingers in Beams and Adcock will look to turn around their form. We’ve seen how effective Rockliff has been when placed in the midfield, amassing massive numbers last year including a few 40+ outings. One can expect him to enjoy short stints in the forward line as a view to rest his ribs. In the ruck, Martin has been in okay form the past few weeks, and will have to face Natanui and Lycett who have been in average form. Will Leuenberger come back into the team to help out Martin, or will it be a solo effort from Martin? It’s only a matter of time until the midfielders start taking advantage of his ruckwork. These days, games are won and lost in the midfield.

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We have a couple of great kicks in Rich and Claye Beams, but the lack of options in our forward line is limiting the chance to use it. Instead we are opting for short kicks along the boundary line which will hurt us on the rebound when we turn it over. We’ll improve when we start to implement the game plan a bit better, the team needs to get some confidence somehow, not only for the players and coaches themselves, but for the supporters and members who have witnessed some shocking displays of football this season so far. Sure, we all have our moments after the match in the vent thread where we go off, but at the end of the day, this is my team, the only team for me and I’ll stand by them till the day I die. So support your team, it’s going to be a bumpy road, but it’ll make the good times even sweeter.

Injury lists for both teams:

Brown (knee) season
Mackenzie (knee) season
Cavka (foot) indefinite
Tunbridge (ankle) 12 weeks
Darling (foot) 5-6 weeks
Selwood (ankle) 4-6 weeks
Ellis (hamstring) 1-2 weeks
Main (back) test
Hutchings (groin) test
Sinclair (finger) test
Waterman (groin) available

Cian Hanley (Knee) - Season
Jonathan Freeman (Glute) - 4-5 weeks
Ryan Harwood (Groins) - 2-3 weeks
Pearce Hanley (Hip) - 10 weeks
Trent West (Knee) - 3-4 weeks
Rockliff (Ribs) - 2-4 weeks
McGuane (Knee) - Test
Paine (Shoulder) - 4 weeks
Smith (Knee) - 4-6 weeks
Close (Knee) - Season
Merrett (Hamstring) - 1-2 weeks

On paper, it’s a mouth watering prospect to see 2 exciting midfield groups go head to head. The added extra of the history and passion between these teams complements the fixture very nicely. Expect a low scoring game with both teams ravaged by injuries this season, they’d both want to make a statement early after a disappointing start to the season for both teams.

Defence
Last week against the Dockers, their big forwards in LeCras and Kennedy looked good. Their presenting to the midfield, marking and agility is something the Lions defenders will want to stop. It’s not enough to quell the attack there. The Eagles are very good at creating pressure in their forward 50 and ensuring the ball stays in. The challenge is on for our defenders to direct traffic through the congestion and get a nice chain of handballs going, you know, that hits the target.

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Our relatively young defence, of whom most are playing in a new position, is going to be tested against one of the better forward lines in the competition, and it will be a good chance for Leppa and co. to observe how this young team will step up under pressure. Expect Clarke to continue his great form and line up on Kennedy while Maguire will most likely take the resting ruckman. Depending on whether Golby comes back in, he might have a date with LeCras. I think we do miss his run and carry from the backline and would love to see him back in the team this week. The other defenders in Paparone and Beams will have their work cut out for them to prevent the dangerous Hill and Shuey from getting off the leash. If they have too much space, they will make you pay with genuine goal scoring chances.

So, what now?
For us to win, we have to have a positive mindset from the get-go and can’t afford to take time to adjust to the conditions and playing style. This is the 3rd week in a row we are facing a team who have lost the previous week and are looking to rebound. For once, I’d like to see us rebound offensively and get to the ball first. Eagles can be a ruthless team and it’s going to take quality to beat them. This is our home game, time to make it sound like one. The Lions have looked threatening and dangerous when they’re willing to support each other, get numbers around the ball and attack the corridor. Our defence has to stand up strong and look for targets instead of hacking the ball out of the area temporarily. The Eagles will make us pay if we do that, and more often than not, a mark inside 50 will be the result.

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It will be great to see these guys in action again. This game is going to require a team effort. This year, it’s been hard to recognise which Lions side is going to turn up. If we take it seriously and are focused to follow the game plan with discipline and back each other up, the Lions could pinch an upset. I feel like Rockliff will lift the Lions again and the team will walk taller with him in. Holding on to that glimmer of hope, I think the Lions will be primed for this. 3rd game at the Gabba this year and it’ll be nice to see if anything has changed from the last two outings. We're going to have to work bloody hard if we want this win, as the record against them hasn't been too flashy of late. Curtail the influence of Kennedy, Natanui and LeCras and it'll go a long way in determining the outcome of the game. Sunday afternoon games usually mean a lack of dew, and it will be perfect conditions for football. Hopefully our boys will be ready. Ready to roar at the Gabba for the first time in 2015 and shut the Eagles up.

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Prediction

Lions by 14
 

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Like St Kilda last year you can't help feel that this is a crucial game to get a result from to at least give us something to build off. Personally I think we just need that 1 quarter early where we convert some of our chances. Whether its some good luck or just someone grabbing a few half opportunities, we just need a launching pad and something to go right early. We've actually been ok at the start of games, however we just haven't finished and then subsequently lose a bit of confidence putting us in a downward spiral.

This game is really our chance to make a mark and with a depleted WC backline is really our best chance for our tall forwards to actually take a few grabs and kick some goals. Midfield wise I think they still have it over us, but much will depend on whether Rocky gets up for it and how fit he is. I give us a genuine chance in this game but its going to hinge largely on if we can tidy up our skills and decision making. WC aren't a real high pressure defensive team which may give us a bit of time and space through the middle of the ground. We're not talking lots of extra time but every tenth of a second helps.
 
The one situation that concerns me a little is Goose matching up on NicNat, if NicNat goes forward.

I think Clarke's attributes are better suited to a forward like Kennedy than some of the huge wrestling types he's had to pick up. Le Cras is a difficult one because he's a smart forward, but I think Gardiner has good defensive awareness and would match up on him pretty well.

NicNat though is too athletic for Goose, and probably too poweful for Paps. I wonder if Stef would more or less go with him, because he's at least a chance of overpowering him. That would leave Andrews or Leuey against Lycett, which isn't ideal, but is (for me) preferable to letting NicNat charge around the forward line getting himself into form.
 
Great preview Rubix WingMan! I thought the "mozzie wings" on Greeny were wooden spoons at first glance though :cry:
 
The one situation that concerns me a little is Goose matching up on NicNat, if NicNat goes forward.

I think Clarke's attributes are better suited to a forward like Kennedy than some of the huge wrestling types he's had to pick up. Le Cras is a difficult one because he's a smart forward, but I think Gardiner has good defensive awareness and would match up on him pretty well.

NicNat though is too athletic for Goose, and probably too poweful for Paps. I wonder if Stef would more or less go with him, because he's at least a chance of overpowering him. That would leave Andrews or Leuey against Lycett, which isn't ideal, but is (for me) preferable to letting NicNat charge around the forward line getting himself into form.
NicNat did kick a couple of goals against Freo, but I found it interesting that he's only taken one mark so far this season. That's terrible for a ruckman- hopefully he keeps it up.
 
Nice preview.
I just re-watched the first and second quarters of last weeks' game. It wasn't too bad. We should have really been up in the second. Heaps of opportunities; just lacking a presence in front of goal. That old chestnut.
 
Really enjoyable preview Rubix WingMan :thumbsu:

Weather prediction is sun, sun, sun til her daddy took the t-bird away. Nice, warm 26 degrees. Sunscreen will be packed and will expect crisp, daytime footy to go with it. By gosh it's been a while.
 
Really enjoyable preview Rubix WingMan :thumbsu:

Weather prediction is sun, sun, sun til her daddy took the t-bird away. Nice, warm 26 degrees. Sunscreen will be packed and will expect crisp, daytime footy to go with it. By gosh it's been a while.

If it rains the blame will sit squarely on your shoulders GG
 

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Gardiner Maguire Adcock
Cutler Clarke Rich
Zorko Rockliff Christensen
Taylor Staker Robinson
Green McStay Andrews
Martin Beams Redden

Aish Bewick Golby O'Brien
 
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Sunny day, perfect for a fast game of footy at the Gabba.

Unfortunately I don't think we're in the correct frame of mind to win this / any game soon.

On paper we should probably win this; we have a deeper midfield and should have more I50 entries to an area where we're missing a tall forward of note and West Coast are the same with their KPD (I think Yeo played CHB in the latter stages last week).

Naitanui can be dangerous, but hasn't really shown much since 2013...but can make space for the likes of Kenndy, LeCras and Josh Hill.

If we let Gaff, Masten and Shuey feed off Priddis and get free; this could get ugly as Kennedy is a flat track bully and we are currently road kill.

WCE by 31pts :footy:
 
Updated injury list

Cian Hanley (Knee) - Season
Jonathan Freeman (Glute) - 3-4 weeks
Ryan Harwood (Groins) - Test
Pearce Hanley (Hip) - 8 weeks
Trent West (Knee) - 3 weeks
Rockliff (Ribs) - Test
Paine (Shoulder) - Test
Smith (Knee) - 4-5 weeks
Close (Knee) - Season
Merrett (Hamstring) - 1 week
 
Harwood, Rockliff, and Paine have all had their injury statuses changed to "test."
Harwood wouldn't be a bad inclusion. I don't mind the idea of chucking Paine into CHF.
 
I'm pretty nervous this week, but I really think we can win this one. We'll be as hungry as anyone, and that is a long way to travel from Perth to play in warm conditions. Just hope the boys are up for this one
 
Top preview, Rubix WingMan

Unfortunately I can't muster up much enthusiasm for our prospects in this game. While last week's game showed the Eagles are a long way behind the top few teams, it also showed that they still have the firepower to hurt teams playing poorly or without intensity.

Updated injury list

Cian Hanley (Knee) - Season
Jonathan Freeman (Glute) - 3-4 weeks
Ryan Harwood (Groins) - Test
Pearce Hanley (Hip) - 8 weeks
Trent West (Knee) - 3 weeks
Rockliff (Ribs) - Test
Paine (Shoulder) - Test
Smith (Knee) - 4-5 weeks
Close (Knee) - Season
Merrett (Hamstring) - 1 week

Unless Leuenberger does something radical, I'd say West is likely to be straight back into the 22 ASAP, maybe after a week in the reserves.

I think Andrews is effectively keeping his spot warm.
 
Harwood, Rockliff, and Paine have all had their injury statuses changed to "test."
Harwood wouldn't be a bad inclusion. I don't mind the idea of chucking Paine into CHF.

Given he hasn't had much pre-season post christmas I'd imagine that he will need to get his fitness up via the reserves first. Still I am one that is looking forward to him being available when he's back fit again.
 
In: Cutler, Golby
Out: Close, Mcgrath

I think we need maturity and Jaden deserves a rest/run in the 2s. I hate to say it as I am loving his efforts, but it may be better for us this weekend. Otherwise I am not opposed to dropping Aish who didn't add much on the weekend but we expect a lot of our 1 - 2 year players so it's hard to fault them too much.
 
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