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Tigers and Hawks Season 2014 – Great Expectations
Both Richmond and Hawthorn entered season 2014 with lofty expectations - Great Expectations - from supporters, many sections of the media, and no-doubt, from within each respective club. Hawthorn looking to repeat last year's Premiership and Richmond looking to go further into September than Elimination Final week. 5 rounds into the season and Hawthorn look to be on track for a top 4 position undefeated in preseason games and a single loss in the season proper. Richmond, on the other hand, have stumbled in the first rounds losing to teams they would expect to defeat and find themselves attempting to stabilize their season. The challenge for the Tigers is the stabilization plan now encounters top 4 aspirants Hawthorn and Geelong. The task, while daunting, could possibly be a great opportunity for Richmond to show the type of resolve they will need this year to make progress and meet their, and their supporters, expectations. Recent history says the challenge of beating the Hawks this round is not insurmountable.
Hawthorn – A Fortunate Life
Until the most recent round Hawthorn's premiership defense had started off in ominous fashion. A comfortable win over the Lions, thrashings of the Suns and, impressively, Fremantle, and a hard fought win over Essendon. Round 5 resulted in a narrow loss to fellow top echelon side Geelong to once again ignite the embers of the smoldering, however not extinguished, Kennett curse. The defection of Buddy Franklin to Sydney seems to have no material impact to the Hawks ability to score, in fact, statistically seems to have created a more potent forward line that is more difficult for teams to combat.
Richmond – Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde
The hallmark of Richmond’s season thus far has been inconsistent football with a Jekyll and Hyde like compulsion to come out as a different football team after half time. Richmond's loses have included a less than robust showing against the Suns in round 1, another bad defeat by the dogs in round 3 with Richmond playing poorly in the first half, and a rather routine and disappointing showing against Collingwood. Richmond's round 2 win over Carlton played out in an all too familiar manner with the Tiges opening up a commanding lead in the first half which was almost pulled back in the second half.
Despite this indifferent start the Tigers find themselves 2 and 3 and still in contact with the top 8.
Recent History – A Tale of Two Cities
Very recent history, encouragingly, has Richmond outpointing Hawthorn. Season 2013 had the Tiges victorious by 41 points with Cotchin racking up 34 possessions and Jack kicking 3 goals. In 2012 the Tigers defeated the Hawks by 10 goals with Jack kicking 6. Richmond entered each of these games clear underdogs however were able to overcome a more powerful, on paper, Hawks outfit. Prior to 2012 Hawthorn had Richmond’s measure easily apart from, again, strangely in a way, the Hawks 2008 Premiership year where the Tigers were victorious by 6 goals.
Player Watch – Through the Looking Glass
Injury Concerns - Things Fall Apart
A significant factor in outcome of this game will be the ability for each side to overcome injuries. Hawthorn look to be relatively injury free to key players with Brian Lake looking set for return this week. Other Hawks injuries concerns would be questionable best 22 with the possible exception of Brad Swell. Richmond have been much harder hit by injuries; a function, in part, of their lesser depth of top end talent. Alex Rance, Brett Deledio, Ivan Maric have had extended absences and will likely miss again, while skipper Trent Cotchin is also under a cloud according to latest reports. Champion Data had only 3 Richmond players ranked as elite last year, these being the injured Deledio, and Rance and the in doubt Cotchin. Hawthorn on the other hand had 6 elite ranked players none currently injured. While certainly a factor, injuries are part of football and Richmond’s brain trust need to plan and execute around these adversities.
Hawthorn has class in all lines. The usual suspects of Mitchell, Birchall, Burgoyne (the Three Musketeers and others) offer run and skill with Roughhead (The Hunchback of Notre-Dame) and Gunston (Kidnapped) constant forward threats and who knows whether Rioli (The Alchemist) will provide a cameo or a lead role in any particular week?
Given the Hawks flexibility it is not enough to hold only these players. Richmond will also have to cover the likes of:
Josh Gibson (Vanity Fair): Having suggested the Hawks are somewhat vulnerable in defense Gibson is the Hawks reining B&F winner having conceded more than 2 goals in a match only twice in 2013. He is also capable of rebound having notched more than 30+ possessions in round 4 2014. If Jack is to play on Gibson he’ll need to have an attacking, and defensive, mindset to maximize his influence and limit Gibson’s.
Paul Pupolo (Persuasion): Unheralded outside of the Hawks Pupolo is very effective in a role of application of forward pressure as indicated by being ranked 2nd in the AFL in pressure acts applied in 2013. The small Richmond defenders and midfield will have their work cut out to negate the influence of Pupolo.
Richmond will look to Cotchin (Charlie …. and The Chocolate Factory – see what I did there?) in the midfield , Jack (Robinson Cursoe) in the forward half and the defense combinations of Astbury, Chaplin, Morris and Houli (Much Ado about Nothing) to generate advantage. Richmond’s most practical path to victory is not necessarily to have Cotchin (if fit) and Jack raise their output from great to outrageous but rather for a step up across the board. For example, lesser likes that could lift are (amongst others) are:
Ben Griffiths (Gulliver’s Travels): A huge opportunity for Ben Griffiths to further progress in 2014 having started from ground zero at the beginning of the season. Geelong exposed the likes of Hawthorn’s Kyle Cheney for size and height, Ben has an opportunity to play a similar role and provide a point of leverage for Richmond and further establish himself as a capable AFL forward.
Sam Lloyd (20000 Leagues Under the Sea): Richmond, despite a spluttering start has uncovered some potential players in 2014. Sam Lloyd, having played for 5 clubs in 5 years before this season, kicked 3 goals on debut in round 4 and was prominent, particularly early, in his follow-up match. Richmond has lacked real x-factor from small forwards in recent years (probably lots longer) with the likes of Nahas (Pinocchio), King (Pride and Prejudice) and Shane Edwards (The Comedy of Errors) having some, but ultimately limited, success. Early indications are Lloyd and fellow small forward Nathan Gordon may be able to provide more sustained, and consistent, offensive options.
Final Thoughts – The Crucible
Richmond is able to win this game if it can, as it has the last 2 times it has played, combat the Hawks strengths and apply scoreboard pressure when it gets its opportunity. The round 5 game against Geelong also suggests Hawthorn is able to be exposed in defense via quality tall forwards supplied by good ball movement.
Hawthorn’s game is built around kicking efficiency allowing the Hawks to control the ball via precise passing leading to high percentage scoring opportunities. If Richmond is able to control the ball they will limit the Hawks own ability to play possession – link-up football. If Richmond’s strategy is single pronged and they *only* attempt to control the ball (via backwards and sideways passing) they will likely be defeated. Richmond does need to highly value possession however they must *also* have the conviction to take the game on and move the ball quickly forward to implement the second strategy of scoreboard pressure. Richmond’s delivery to tall forward options, Jack or Ben Griffiths for example, will be key in attempting to stretch the Hawk’s defense even if Norm Smith Medalist Brian Lake is included.
The crucible around contested ball, winning the contest and setting up scoring chains and/or defensive running (if the initial contest is lost) is key.
Prediction – Taming of the ShrewHead (and tabsports bet) says Hawks, however recent results say a Tigers victory is possible. In a tussle worth of a classic novel, Tigers by 28 points to move in, or within, touching distance of the top 8 with stabilization of the season well underway. Bring on Geelong thereafter!
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