Analysis Road to 2020

[Barrels]

Rather than clogging up the Draft Megathread, this one is about analysis specific to where our list is at with respect to our stated target of a 2020 flag.

We can be reasonably confident that anyone over 30 already will probably be gone, sadly including our mighty skipper, but we can speculate as to who we can bring in to replace them.

To start off, let's say we manage to entice Dylan Shiel - who's talking as if he's gaaawn - to Moorabbin, and we take Darcy Tucker in the first round (and because I like him, Keiran Collins in a later one) and some reasonable development and improvement takes place... Is this anywhere near a flag side? What does it lack? Who should be in or out of the side?

FB: Webster (25) - Delaney (29) - Roberton (27)
HB: Newnes (26) - Goddard (22) - Savage (28)
CR: Tucker (22) - Shiel (26) - Steven (29)
HF: Billings (23) - White (24) - Membrey (24)
FF: Saad (29) - McCartin (22) - Bruce (26)
RK: Hickey (28) - Weller (27) - Dunstan (24)
IC: Wright (25) Armitage (30) Lonie (22) Acres (23)

EM: Geary (30) Longer (25) Sinclair (24) Templeton (23) Ross (24)

*ages as at the start of season 2020

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

It potentially doesn't lack anything... as long as the kids we have become stars!

 

[Barrels]

I think even modest improvement from some makes that a pretty solid side, but flag-worthy?

 

[crasha301]

Dont think saad would be there. And if he is we havent developed or drafted correctly.

 

[CALL ME SNAKE]

Its going to be one hell of a crappy rd

Lets hope we do the right thing when we get to the destination this time

 

[VDS66]

Rather than clogging up the Draft Megathread, this one is about analysis specific to where our list is at with respect to our stated target of a 2020 flag.

We can be reasonably confident that anyone over 30 already will probably be gone, sadly including our mighty skipper, but we can speculate as to who we can bring in to replace them.

To start off, let's say we manage to entice Dylan Shiel - who's talking as if he's gaaawn- to Moorabbin, and we take Darcy Tucker in the first round (and because I like him, Keiran Collins in a later one) and some reasonable development and improvement takes place... Is this anywhere near a flag side? What does it lack? Who should be in or out of the side?

FB: Webster (25) - Delaney (29) - Roberton (27)
HB: Newnes (26) - Goddard (22) - Savage (28)
CR: Tucker (22) - Shiel (26) - Steven (29)
HF: Billings (23) - White (24) - Membrey (24)
FF: Saad (29) - McCartin (22) - Bruce (26)
RK: Hickey (28) - Weller (27) - Dunstan (24)
IC: Wright (25) Armitage (30) Lonie (22) Acres (23)

EM: Geary (30) Longer (25) Sinclair (24) Templeton (23) Ross (24)

*ages as at the start of season 2020

What about Boyd, Cameron, Patton, Treloar, Dangerfield and all those other players that are going to want to come and play for us?

 

[Rors]

Rather than clogging up the Draft Megathread, this one is about analysis specific to where our list is at with respect to our stated target of a 2020 flag.

We can be reasonably confident that anyone over 30 already will probably be gone, sadly including our mighty skipper, but we can speculate as to who we can bring in to replace them.

To start off, let's say we manage to entice Dylan Shiel - who's talking as if he's gaaawn- to Moorabbin, and we take Darcy Tucker in the first round (and because I like him, Keiran Collins in a later one) and some reasonable development and improvement takes place... Is this anywhere near a flag side? What does it lack? Who should be in or out of the side?

FB: Webster (25) - Delaney (29) - Roberton (27)
HB: Newnes (26) - Goddard (22) - Savage (28)
CR: Tucker (22) - Shiel (26) - Steven (29)
HF: Billings (23) - White (24) - Membrey (24)
FF: Saad (29) - McCartin (22) - Bruce (26)
RK: Hickey (28) - Weller (27) - Dunstan (24)
IC: Wright (25) Armitage (30) Lonie (22) Acres (23)

EM: Geary (30) Longer (25) Sinclair (24) Templeton (23) Ross (24)

*ages as at the start of season 2020

Needs more Jackson Voss & Connor Harvey.....

And Lachie Weller...

 

[holllywood]

Rather than clogging up the Draft Megathread, this one is about analysis specific to where our list is at with respect to our stated target of a 2020 flag.

We can be reasonably confident that anyone over 30 already will probably be gone, sadly including our mighty skipper, but we can speculate as to who we can bring in to replace them.

To start off, let's say we manage to entice Dylan Shiel - who's talking as if he's gaaawn- to Moorabbin, and we take Darcy Tucker in the first round (and because I like him, Keiran Collins in a later one) and some reasonable development and improvement takes place... Is this anywhere near a flag side? What does it lack? Who should be in or out of the side?

FB: Webster (25) - Delaney (29) - Roberton (27)
HB: Newnes (26) - Goddard (22) - Savage (28)
CR: Tucker (22) - Shiel (26) - Steven (29)
HF: Billings (23) - White (24) - Membrey (24)
FF: Saad (29) - McCartin (22) - Bruce (26)
RK: Hickey (28) - Weller (27) - Dunstan (24)
IC: Wright (25) Armitage (30) Lonie (22) Acres (23)

EM: Geary (30) Longer (25) Sinclair (24) Templeton (23) Ross (24)

*ages as at the start of season 2020

Not sure if it is Premiership quality, but that is one tough side. Most of the players there would lay a good tackle or shepard and be able to win their own ball.

It's closer to the Geelong philosophy over Hawthorn in building a team (IMO).

Will need to be special to compete with GWS/GC and also the Dogs.

 

[Barrels]

Dont think saad would be there. And if he is we havent developed or drafted correctly.

Lonie for Saad and one of the emergency mids onto the bench?

 

[Joffaboy]

So Lonie and McKenzie are busts and we don't go for Parish?

 

[God Save Max King]

That team is not premiership quality, compare it to that of GWS or Gold Coast (or even the Bulldogs, Dees and Swans teams) in 5 years and you'll see that we're seriously lacking quality. No knock on our current youngsters, but there's a reason that we, like Bruno Caboclo, are two years away from being two years away.

*A few adjustments on the age, should be accurate to 2020*

FB: Webster (27) - Delaney (31) - ----------
HB: Newnes (27) - Goddard (24) - Savage (29)
CR: Acres (24) - Armitage (32) - Steven (30)
HF: Billings (25) - --------- - Membrey (26)
FF: Lonie (24) - McCartin (24) - Bruce (26)
RK: Hickey (28) - Weller (28) - Dunstan (25)
IC: McKenzie (24) Sinclair (25)^ Ross (27)^ Templeton (25)

^IMO we need to improve in these positions. Either the player gets much better (hopeful of this), or we bring in another player for that role.

Personally think we're a better chance around 2022, but in 2020 we'll have a great, young core, with a huge number of u25s. Like that we kept Armitage, every premiership team has a couple of older, more experienced players, which is what Arma, Delaney, Steven, Savage should be for us.

I've taken out Tucker and Shiel, because after all, we don't have them on our list. Our 1st/2nd round picks in 2015 (23 in 2020), 2016 (22), 2017 (21) and possibly 2018 (20) should really improve the quality of this team.

As for the 3 missing spots, I don't think we have a player on our list that can fill the role required of a 3rd defender in the back pocket, or a CHF. I don't think Goddard is the solution there, as that takes him out of that valuable CHB role. We must see Bruce as a fwd/ruckman, so he stays in the pocket. Think shifting Bruce to CHF, Hickey to the pocket and Longer to ruck is a real possibility (and I don't want to write off Lewis Pierce either), but still a lot to play out in the development of these 3 (or 4). Extra defender - I'll grab Buntine, Marchbank, Plowman or Mohr, thanks Giants.

E: Completely forgot DMac!

 

[Kilroy]

Why not have Bruce at CHF?
I'd back Billy Longer to make it over Spence right now, so maybe Hickey in the pocket. Longer in the ruck.
Otherwise we need more Schache

Edit: like what Rahul said ... But I can only count 2 missing spots

 

[Defacto]

I think even modest improvement from some makes that a pretty solid side, but flag-worthy?

i'm worried we are becoming a jack of all trades but a master of none... no real pointy edge or ability to turn games. the side has plenty of soldiers to quote derm but not enough wow/match winning players who can really own their position

 

[Barrels]

That team is not premiership quality, compare it to that of GWS or Gold Coast (or even the Bulldogs, Dees and Swans teams) in 5 years and you'll see that we're seriously lacking quality. No knock on our current youngsters, but there's a reason that we, like Bruno Caboclo, are two years away from being two years away.

*A few adjustments on the age, should be accurate to 2020*

FB: Webster (27) - Delaney (31) - ----------
HB: Newnes (27) - Goddard (24) - Savage (29)
CR: Acres (24) - Armitage (32) - Steven (30)
HF: Billings (25) - --------- - Membrey (26)
FF: Lonie (24) - McCartin (24) - Bruce (26)
RK: Hickey (28) - Weller (28) - Dunstan (25)
IC: Wright (26)^ Sinclair (25)^ Ross (27)^ Templeton (25)

^IMO we need to improve in these positions. Either the player gets much better (hopeful of this), or we bring in another player for that role.

Personally think we're a better chance around 2022, but in 2020 we'll have a great, young core, with a huge number of u25s. Like that we kept Armitage, every premiership team has a couple of older, more experienced players, which is what Arma, Delaney, Steven, Savage should be for us.

I've taken out Tucker and Shiel, because after all, we don't have them on our list. Our 1st/2nd round picks in 2015 (23 in 2020), 2016 (22), 2017 (21) and possibly 2018 (20) should really improve the quality of this team.

As for the 3 missing spots, I don't think we have a player on our list that can fill the role required of a 3rd defender in the back pocket, or a CHF. I don't think Goddard is the solution there, as that takes him out of that valuable CHB role. We must see Bruce as a fwd/ruckman, so he stays in the pocket. Think shifting Bruce to CHF, Hickey to the pocket and Longer to ruck is a real possibility (and I don't want to write off Lewis Pierce either), but still a lot to play out in the development of these 3 (or 4). Extra defender - I'll grab Buntine, Marchbank, Plowman or Mohr, thanks Giants.

I love you man.

i'm worried we are becoming a jack of all trades but a master of none... no real pointy edge or ability to turn games. the side has plenty of soldiers to quote derm but not enough wow/match winning players who can really own their position

Exactly why I started the thread; aside from Steven, we're relying a lot on Billings and Lonie for our 'dare' - and that's asking a lot of them and taking a huge leap of faith in their continued development - where is our spark? Who are our matchwinners?

I think CHF is a huge hole. I'm hopeful on Spence, but I think we need a more realistic option too. I'm very bullish on Shannon Beks (2017 prospect), but I worry that he's been so good as a junior due to his massive size advantage from a young age (he was 195cm at about 15 near as I can gather). I'll be very interested to see his output this year as an underager, but also his improvement next year in his draft year.

 

[hayes]

If that side isn't premiership quality then I'm not sure what is. If Tucker is as good as everyone's saying then we've got:

Tucker, Shiel, Steven, Billings, Dunstan, Acres, Newnes as midfield guns, some very good flankers in Webster, Savage, Lonie and Eli, good tagger and key positions covered. What more could you want.

 

[Barrels]

If that side isn't premiership quality then I'm not sure what is. If Tucker is as good as everyone's saying then we've got:

Tucker, Shiel, Steven, Billings, Dunstan, Acres, Newnes as midfield guns, some very good flankers in Webster, Savage, Lonie and Eli, good tagger and key positions covered. What more could you want.

CHF is still a hole.

 

[hayes]

Then there's still Sinclair, McKenzie, Wright, Murdoch and I'm sure I'm forgetting a couple of more in the sort've "unknown" category. If we don't have a premiership nucleus in there then we might as well just give up now because we can't develop anything!

 

[hayes]

CHF is still a hole.

In your opinion, yes.

 

[maanco]

The Sides named (i prefer Rahuls) are both missing a second ruck, which i don't think Bruce can become unfortunately. He could be a great Swingman like a Harry Taylor. Hickey and longer could be our 2 rucks hopefully.

Probably need 1 or 2 more players that can break the line.
Need a 3rd Back. Roberton could be it but he is more of a flanker. I really liked his first 2 qrts on the weekend, he could be a good chance to be in the team come 2020.

 

[Kilroy]

... Exactly why I started the thread; aside from Steven, we're relying a lot on Billings and Lonie for our 'dare' - and that's asking a lot of them and taking a huge leap of faith in their continued development - where is our spark? Who are our matchwinners ...

Call me an optimist, but ...
Sinclair, Webster, McCartin and McKenzie have shown the potential to add to those three.

 

[God Save Max King]

If that side isn't premiership quality then I'm not sure what is. If Tucker is as good as everyone's saying then we've got:

Tucker, Shiel, Steven, Billings, Dunstan, Acres, Newnes as midfield guns, some very good flankers in Webster, Savage, Lonie and Eli, good tagger and key positions covered. What more could you want.

Huge hole at CHF IMO (or FF, if we play Paddy at CHF), we don't have Tucker or Shiel yet and we still don't know if Billings, Dunstan, Acres and future firsts will live up to the standards expected of them. I think we're definitely on track to build a team that can contend for a flag, but we'll need a few more guns from the next few drafts. I think this team will be much better in a couple of years when we have a better idea about the ruck situation, have used multiple picks from 2015 and 2016 and are starting to open the war chest.

 

[Barrels]

In your opinion, yes.

So who would you have?

I've got Spence in there because I think he could be an absolute star, but at the moment he's got a high bust potential too.

 

[Mindtraveller]

So who would you have?

I've got Spence in there because I think he could be an absolute star, but at the moment he's got a high bust potential too.

Could White become that Forward Ruck? I think Bruce could make it at CHF, shows a lot of promise up forward already.

 

[Barrels]

Could White become that Forward Ruck? I think Bruce could make it at CHF, shows a lot of promise up forward already.

Not a chance IMO; totally physically unsuited.

 

[cuzo]

I think the club needs to give Spence an extended run at it in the AFL, he just has too much potential to be languishing in the VFL. He's one of those players that would be better off in the AFL with better delivery and more space etc. He could be an absolute superstar if he was given a chance, but like others said he's got high bust potential at the moment