Analysis Road to 2020

[Kilroy]

My pet hate - the guys name is Jon Peake. He was from geelong and we took him hoping some of Stephen Wells nous and magic would rub off on him. Obviously not. I personally hold him responsible for our deplorable recruiting for those 5/6 years. He finally got the arse after Cripps was recruited but no due diligence was done and we found out afterwards about his asthma. he went back to Geelong with his tail tucked between his legs

I'm not a violent person but I'm not sure if I could control myself if I met him or was introduced to him. I would certainly use every swear word i could think of, (and I can get pretty darn creative let me tell you), and tell him where to go exactly

Sorry to question you on something you obviously feel quite passionate about, Smoke, but I believe Cripps suffers from diabetes rather than asthma.

Unless he's really unlucky and has/gets both. In which case it would be doubly embarassing for John Peake, but I think you'll find it's just one.

 

[Mowman]

Sorry to question you on something you obviously feel quite passionate about, Smoke, but I believe Cripps suffers from diabetes rather than asthma.

Unless he's really unlucky and has/gets both. In which case it would be doubly embarassing for John Peake, but I think you'll find it's just one.

I thought it was diabetes

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Sorry to question you on something you obviously feel quite passionate about, Smoke, but I believe Cripps suffers from diabetes rather than asthma.

Unless he's really unlucky and has/gets both. In which case it would be doubly embarassing for John Peake, but I think you'll find it's just one.

Maybe he's talking about Spencer Cripps?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Lord_Bumfluff]

Rather than clogging up the Draft Megathread, this one is about analysis specific to where our list is at with respect to our stated target of a 2020 flag.

We can be reasonably confident that anyone over 30 already will probably be gone, sadly including our mighty skipper, but we can speculate as to who we can bring in to replace them.

To start off, let's say we manage to entice Dylan Shiel - who's talking as if he's gaaawn - to Moorabbin, and we take Darcy Tucker in the first round (and because I like him, Keiran Collins in a later one) and some reasonable development and improvement takes place... Is this anywhere near a flag side? What does it lack? Who should be in or out of the side?

FB: Webster (25) - Delaney (29) - Roberton (27)
HB: Newnes (26) - Goddard (22) - Savage (28)
CR: Tucker (22) - Shiel (26) - Steven (29)
HF: Billings (23) - White (24) - Membrey (24)
FF: Saad (29) - McCartin (22) - Bruce (26)
RK: Hickey (28) - Weller (27) - Dunstan (24)
IC: Wright (25) Armitage (30) Lonie (22) Acres (23)

EM: Geary (30) Longer (25) Sinclair (24) Templeton (23) Ross (24)

*ages as at the start of season 2020

There is alot of players that will be absolute stars of the competition, Sinclair, Longer, Dunstan, Billings, Tucker (if we get him) Membrey, Acres could be our Fyfe, Weller + possibility of picking up some stars with Free Agency, could be a great team

 

[Smoke_Me_AKipper]

Sorry to question you on something you obviously feel quite passionate about, Smoke, but I believe Cripps suffers from diabetes rather than asthma.

Unless he's really unlucky and has/gets both. In which case it would be doubly embarassing for John Peake, but I think you'll find it's just one.

No not at all mate - my fault totally. You are indeed correct it was diabetes and not asthma. However it still doesn't change my rant/point re the lack of due diligence

 

[ike2112]

Was just having a revised look over the list, and I think if we are talking a flag-challenging side, we are still a little off even if people improve.

FB Line: Back Pocket (small) / Delaney / Back Pocket (3rd tall/intercept)
HB Line: Newnes / Goddard / McKenzie
Middle: Savage / Dunstan / Wing
HF Line: Steven / Bruce / Armitage
FF Line: Sinclair / McCartin / Lonie
Rovers: Longer / Billings / Elite Inside Mid
Interchange: Weller (tagger/defensive mid), Webster (HB/Wing), Membrey, B+grade Mid who can play forward, interchange with Armo, Sinclair, Billings etc

[Note that if it takes us more than 5 years to get these players in, Armitage will be gone and others not far behind]

We’re short of a tall and small at the back, although smaller solid-bodied defenders can come cheaply in the draft, the third tall will be the harder find.
A true outside speed threat – Steven will be slowing and playing more forward in 5 years’ time, think Savage will be on a wing by then, Webster could hopefully do it but ideally we’d have someone really top level if we are saying we’re a flag team.
It would also be great to get another decent tall forward, and give us the depth as well as the option to play Bruce at the back and swing forward, or vice versa.

And this is all really reliant upon a lot of progress from Paddy, Goddard, Sinclair, McKenzie, Dunstan, Delaney, Membrey.

For the rest of the guys who will still be around:
Ruck/3rd Tall option – Hickey (if they drop the sub rule he'll be definitely back playing with Longer)
Depth for small fwd – Templeton
Depth for inside mid – Ross
Depth for half-back/wing - Roberton
Depth for back pocket (small) – Geary
Depth for back pocket/wing - Wright

May make it:
Curren – might still be on list, but as the final mid depth
Murdoch – I don’t think he’s developed enough, will be overtaken
Minchington – will probably be on the list for another year or two, but think he’ll struggle to get a shot unless Lonie and/or Sinclair miss time
Markworth – he’s a long shot now
Pierce – hopefully he’s a serviceable 3rd-stringer, although if Longer and Hickey both turn out to be good, and both stay with us, then Pierce might get us a 2nd rounder if he has shown promise
Holmes – showing great progress but think people underestimate how far back he’s coming from, and winning taps isn’t enough in the modern game.

 

[Lord_Bumfluff]

I'm with you HBP, there's a still a bit of clearing we need to do in regards to the list. I'm a bit concerned that we're too happy to hand out long contracts, Simpkin, Siposs, Milera, Lee, Saunders, Curren, Geary, Murdoch all might have signed on for a bit too long (1 year too long at least).

This year I expect to see Gilbert, Siposs, Simpkin, Shenton off the main list, with one of Pierce and Markworth potentially rookied (6 off main list), Schneider retiring and potentially one of Dempster or Ray retiring. That's 6 spots open on the main list.

1-2 First Round Picks
1 Second Round Pick
1 Third Round Pick
1 Membrey-esque PSD/DFA selection
1 upgrade (Sinclair)

Schneider will retire, not sure about Ray or Dempster. I think Lee, Simpkin, Murdoch and maybe Shenton or Siposs can't think of anyone else lol. Hope they stick with Markworth but

 

[The Punter]

Dempster looks pretty safe if he wants another year right now, but things can change and he may want to give it away.

It all depends on who is out of contract. I know Siposs and Simpkin are, and they look pretty much unsaveable at the moment.

 

[The Punter]

So let's assess the list 6 rounds in. Two criteria - are they (or are we convinced they will be) good enough to be in the best 22 of a premiership team, and will they be at the club (barring injury or a "too-good-to-be-true" trade) in 2020.

Hickey - Very nearly there on the first one, yes to the second
Siposs - almost certainly no on both fronts
Steven - Yes and yes
Templeton - jury out on both
Savage - probably yes to both
Ross - we need to see his production when he comes back. 75% yes on both
Dunstan - very close to yes and yes
Acres - more likely yes than no on both
Lee - depends on what role he plays when he gets into the senior team
Markworth - I have my doubts
Montagna - yes and no
Riewoldt - see Montagna
Schneider - see Riewoldt
Geary - a tough one, but probably just on the side of no on both
Billings - we can move him to yes on both after Saturday
Newnes - unsure on first, yes on second
Roberton - leaning yes on both
Longer - probably yes on both
Gilbert - see Schneider
Armitage - yes on both
Delaney - 75% yes on both
Ray - see Gilbert
White - penny has to drop, but unlikely to be at the club next year me thinks
Dempster - see Ray
Fisher - see Dempster
Curren - leaning no on both, other foot soldiers in front of him
Bruce - yes on both
Membrey - probably yes on both
Webster - probably yes on both
Murdoch - all depends on him finding a position
Simpkin - no on both
Goddard - too early
McCartin - too early
Wright - 50/50 on both
Saunders - 50/50 on both
McKenzie - I'm bullish
Lonie - yes on both
Saad - no on both
Shenton - no on both
Sinclair - probably yes on both
Minchington - leaning no on both
Pierce - no on both
Payne - too early
Weller - leaning yes on both
Holmes - who knows?

So looking at a 2020 GF team, I would think Hickey, Steven, Savage, Ross, Dunstan, Acres, Billings, Newnes, Roberton, Longer, Armitage, Delaney, Bruce, Membrey, Webster, Goddard, McCartin, McKenzie, Lonie, Sinclair & Weller will be around the mark. We could put that side on the park just about this week.

Roberton Delaney Webster
Savage Goddard Newnes
Billings Dunstan Sinclair
Membrey McCartin Ross
Lonie Hickey Bruce
Longer Armitage Steven
Acres Weller McKenzie .........

Now that's not what will happen. But a lot of the hard work, list wise, is just about already done.

 

[Defacto]

i'm with you on mckenzie punter. looks to be an amazing find

 

[12Chill]

I kind of wish Jack Billings, given he's in theory one of our most skilled players and a gun player waiting to happen, had a bit more variety on his kicks. I am not even sure if his right leg can swing forwards. I sort of expected he would be able to kick off his right

Um... Billings can kick on his right foot. Quite well might I add, not like your typical one sided left footer at all.

 

[ike2112]

Um... Billings can kick on his right foot. Quite well might I add, not like your typical one sided left footer at all.

In the Essendon game twice he kicked towards the f50 awkwardly at a difficult angle with his left when he clearly should have used his right.
His left is bloody great though!

 

[God Save Max King]

In the Essendon game twice he kicked towards the f50 awkwardly at a difficult angle with his left when he clearly should have used his right.
His left is bloody great though!

Surely you're joking, Jack's right foot is more than capable.

 

[ike2112]

Surely you're joking, Jack's right foot is more than capable.

I'm sure it is, and I am certain you would know more than me. All I am pointing out is that twice he attempted difficult kicks with his left, which should ideally have been kicked (and were easier kicks) with the right. I have no idea why he would do that.

 

[Cannavaro20]

In my opinion we have quite a good group of players and feel as though we are in a strong position because of the great job the club has done on the rebuild. Assuming no major injuries and improvement on the trajectory that we have been witnessing so far our team could look like below in 2020:

Geary Delaney Roberton
Newnes Goddard Savage
McKenzie Armitage Acres
Billings Bruce Hickey
Lonie McCartin Membrey

Longer Steven Dunstan

Weller Sinclar XXXX YYYY

Players on our list who I think have shown some quality and could be apart of it (I appreciate that Goddard and McCartin still have it all to prove but I think most agree that the signs are there):

Ross
Mincington
Wright
Templeton
Lee (at a stretch, I have always liked him, hopefully defense is his new calling then everyone wins)

Sorry to Saunders and Murdoch, I want you to be there but quite a few are in front of you....

Firstly and Obviously I think that we will need get XXXX & YYYY in but this shouldn't be as hard as we think i.e. Pick 5 and 25 this year (or Shiel & Sloan), Free agents next year etc. Plus if 2020 is our goal, then including this year we will have 10 picks below 36 at a min. plus FA to get in the required players. or obviously one of the Ross's or templeton's could explode in development etc.

Question is that sort of players do we need XXXX & YYYY to be, more mids, outside types? Is Delaney and or Geary good enough to be part of a premiership team (I think so, but I am loving what I am seeing right now), is there anyone else who we feel won't ever be good enough and the weakest link (dare I say it, the eddys/peakes of 2020)

I honestly believe that there is enough quality there and that Richo can extract it all, as he has shown some fruits of the last 1.2 years of work But the finishing of the squad seems to rest on getting two more quality players on the list (this all is based on the notion that the current guys and team will development as we want.

 

[Lord_Bumfluff]

In my opinion we have quite a good group of players and feel as though we are in a strong position because of the great job the club has done on the rebuild. Assuming no major injuries and improvement on the trajectory that we have been witnessing so far our team could look like below in 2020:

Geary Delaney Roberton
Newnes Goddard Savage
McKenzie Armitage Acres
Billings Bruce Hickey
Lonie McCartin Membrey

Longer Steven Dunstan

Weller Sinclar XXXX YYYY

Players on our list who I think have shown some quality and could be apart of it (I appreciate that Goddard and McCartin still have it all to prove but I think most agree that the signs are there):

Ross
Mincington
Wright
Templeton
Lee (at a stretch, I have always liked him, hopefully defense is his new calling then everyone wins)

Sorry to Saunders and Murdoch, I want you to be there but quite a few are in front of you....

Firstly and Obviously I think that we will need get XXXX & YYYY in but this shouldn't be as hard as we think i.e. Pick 5 and 25 this year (or Shiel & Sloan), Free agents next year etc. Plus if 2020 is our goal, then including this year we will have 10 picks below 36 at a min. plus FA to get in the required players. or obviously one of the Ross's or templeton's could explode in development etc.

Question is that sort of players do we need XXXX & YYYY to be, more mids, outside types? Is Delaney and or Geary good enough to be part of a premiership team (I think so, but I am loving what I am seeing right now), is there anyone else who we feel won't ever be good enough and the weakest link (dare I say it, the eddys/peakes of 2020)

I honestly believe that there is enough quality there and that Richo can extract it all, as he has shown some fruits of the last 1.2 years of work But the finishing of the squad seems to rest on getting two more quality players on the list (this all is based on the notion that the current guys and team will development as we want.

That's one thing that still frustrates me about the 09-10 sides, had Robert ******* Eddy being a straight up spud when we had Armo, Jack Steven and a few others that would've done better then him

 

[Munga]

My road to 2017 shows we need a tall athletic defender (Talia type) to get ready to replace Fisher, Dempster and Gilbert, and a couple of mids. We're in pretty good shape.

 

[SK_MD_#7]

My road to 2017 shows we need a tall athletic defender (Talia type) to get ready to replace Fisher, Dempster and Gilbert, and a couple of mids. We're in pretty good shape.

I really like Rory Thompson similar in ways to Talia.

Athletic and very good defender when inform. Only 23/24 to. 25 next year

 

[hayes]

In my opinion we have quite a good group of players and feel as though we are in a strong position because of the great job the club has done on the rebuild. Assuming no major injuries and improvement on the trajectory that we have been witnessing so far our team could look like below in 2020:

Geary Delaney Roberton
Newnes Goddard Savage
McKenzie Armitage Acres
Billings Bruce Hickey
Lonie McCartin Membrey

Longer Steven Dunstan

Weller Sinclar XXXX YYYY

Players on our list who I think have shown some quality and could be apart of it (I appreciate that Goddard and McCartin still have it all to prove but I think most agree that the signs are there):

Ross
Mincington
Wright
Templeton
Lee (at a stretch, I have always liked him, hopefully defense is his new calling then everyone wins)

Sorry to Saunders and Murdoch, I want you to be there but quite a few are in front of you....

Firstly and Obviously I think that we will need get XXXX & YYYY in but this shouldn't be as hard as we think i.e. Pick 5 and 25 this year (or Shiel & Sloan), Free agents next year etc. Plus if 2020 is our goal, then including this year we will have 10 picks below 36 at a min. plus FA to get in the required players. or obviously one of the Ross's or templeton's could explode in development etc.

Question is that sort of players do we need XXXX & YYYY to be, more mids, outside types? Is Delaney and or Geary good enough to be part of a premiership team (I think so, but I am loving what I am seeing right now), is there anyone else who we feel won't ever be good enough and the weakest link (dare I say it, the eddys/peakes of 2020)

I honestly believe that there is enough quality there and that Richo can extract it all, as he has shown some fruits of the last 1.2 years of work But the finishing of the squad seems to rest on getting two more quality players on the list (this all is based on the notion that the current guys and team will development as we want.

There will be no Eddy/McQualter/Peake types this time around. I feel ill at just the thought of it.

 

[The Punter]

Anyone who feels that way about Robert Eddy, please feel free to read any comments about him from the blokes that played with him. Short on talent at AFL level to be sure, but some of the stuff written on here about him is pretty unfair.

 

[VDS66]

I can still see Membrey become a big body mid for us if he can build his endurance.

I would expect Bruce to play FF and Paddy at CHF... too much talent to waste in the goal square.

Hoping that Lee can eventually replace Fisher or Demspter down back.

Would also like to see enough talent brought in to to force out Geary... or at the very least, render him as a fringe player.

 

[Smoke_Me_AKipper]

I can still see Membrey become a big body mid for us if he can build his endurance.

I would expect Bruce to play FF and Paddy at CHF... too much talent to waste in the goal square.

Hoping that Lee can eventually replace Fisher or Demspter down back.

Would also like to see enough talent brought in to to force out Geary... or at the very least, render him as a fringe player.

You'd think with the kids brought in after the 2015 and 2016 drafts plus traded/free agency - that's at least 6 quality players that would change things up....

 

[VDS66]

You'd think with the kids brought in after the 2015 and 2016 drafts plus traded/free agency - that's at least 6 quality players that would change things up....

Well you won't be able to fit everyone in. What I am seeing is that the club is intent on recruiting highly skilled players. This can only mean that lesser skilled players will be forced out.

The more skilled players, the stronger you will be.

Realistically, you won't get 22 A-grade players, but it will always come down to your bottom 6 and how good they really are. It also comes down to midfield depth.

You want everyone to succeed but it just won't happen. Saunders is a classic case. The kid can play and has pace, but he struggles to get a game because we have players with better skills. Curren is the other one that comes to mind. I also have doubts on Wright. Love the way he goes about it, but will near enough be good enough in the future?

As I mentioned t you, the club is well aware of clubs like GWS and their elite talent pool, so they are working to increase our talent pool to try and match them, if we are to be a genuine chance.

 

[The Punter]

The foot soldiers will come in useful at some stage, and Saunders & Wright were drafted in a weak draft.

 

[VDS66]

If you want a real shake, then the foot soldiers have to be B-grade.