Analysis Rock Bottom; have we hit it?

[Bull3tblitz]

Rock bottom, is what we gave to Freo on the weekend

 

[Falchoon]

If this week is rock bottom, it is a lot more comfortable then I expected.

dead cat bounce?

 

[aussierulesrules]

In a way GWS did them a favour taking Ward, he was easily their brightest young player and they knew they would have to bottom out after that. Pick 6 certainly helps.



Too many questions to assume either way. Can the new draftees make an immediate difference? Will our best veterans fall off a cliff? Will the younger players drop off a little in their second year? It's way too early to tell.

The one nice thing with the injuries this year is that it's happening in a season at the bottom. Suns have been pushed right off the tracks.

Yep, it could certainly go either way, or stay similar, but I think if Lenny is the only big name to depart that the odds would be stacked in our favour to be able to cover for him adequately by then, unless some pretty major things go against us.

 

[Munga]

Need to play 7 games to qualify

QUALIFIED
Jason Holmes - 11
Arryn Siposs - 10
Dylan Roberton - 10
Daniel Markworth - 9
Beau Maister - 8
Brodie Murdoch - 8
Darren Minchington - 8
Sam Dunell - 8
Tom Lee - 7

NOT QUALIFIED
Tom Simpkin - 6
Cam Shenton - 5
Josh Bruce - 5
Seb Ross - 5
Shane Savage - 5
Spencer White - 5
Terry Milera - 5
Blake Acres - 4
Josh Saunders - 4
Mav Weller - 4
Tom Curren - 4
Adam Schneider - 3
Lewis Pierce - 3
Rhys Stanley - 3
Tom Hickey - 3
Jack Billings - 2
James Gwilt - 2
Nathan Wright - 2

WOULD NEED PLAY REMAINING 6 GAMES OF VFL SEASON
David Armitage - 1
Jimmy Webster - 1
Farren Ray - 1

Do you have an update on this list, or a link to it? Thanks.

 

[Persevering Saint]

This from me in another thread:

Okay, let's be silly funny for a second. Given the Freo game, let's re-appraise the remaining games' chances:

1. Suns: Winnable.
2. Doggies: Now that it's officially Lenny's send off game, MUST WIN.
3. Swans: Unlikely, but hey, we said that about Freo (but yeah, unlikely!). Being at the SCG doesn't help.
   
4. Tigers: Winnable.
5. Crows: At Etihad, it'd be winnable - but since it's over here in Adelaide, not very likely.

That's 3 more wins, all going well. That'd be 7 wins for the season. That'd probably get us to 16th, pick #3 - which did alright for us last year.

Now, I just realised, but that would mean we had two more wins than last year, and really three more wins, since the game against Freo was really a charity win. That would suggest we bottomed out LAST year under Watters, and are starting to turn a corner.

Of course, we haven't WON those games yet, but hey.

 

[sverik25]

This from me in another thread:



Now, I just realised, but that would mean we had two more wins than last year, and really three more wins, since the game against Freo was really a charity win. That would suggest we bottomed out LAST year under Watters, and are starting to turn a corner.

Of course, we haven't WON those games yet, but hey.

I'd still have us rank outsiders in all of those matches bar maybe the Bulldogs one, and I wonder if all of the players emotions for Lenny etc. will have either been used up last week or will be saved for his last match against the Crows. To be honest, I'd be happy if we won one more game for the year.

Last year was possibly even more derailed by injuries than this year, we had a number of close losses and were competitive most weeks. You could hardly say that about this year. I'd like to think rock bottom is behind us, but I'm still not convinced.

 

[CALL ME SNAKE]

Starting to think we wont actually get the Wooden Spoon
Its not that after the wonderful Freo win that I now think we are going to go on a 5 game winning streak or anything like that.
But it wouldn't surprise me if we scraped in 1 more win. Meanwhile it looks like GWS are cooked. They have injuries to some of their best players and they have also booked some players in for early season ending surgery.
Ive got a feeling they might catch us in the backwards race to the wrong end of the ladder.
Don't think it would do us any harm though, If GWS come last I still think we would be able to pick up a gun forward. Either from the draft or from them.
Gonna be interesting.

 

[hayes]

TBH I'm expecting a letdown game against the Suns. They're an extremely talented side and the bye can do strange things to results, I think we would've gone into it feeling good about ourselves and there'll be a drop off. Just happens sometimes to young teams.

I really want to win that Bulldogs game though. I think we'll really set ourselves for that one.

 

[Manimal_Dunstan]

TBH I'm expecting a letdown game against the Suns. They're an extremely talented side and the bye can do strange things to results, I think we would've gone into it feeling good about ourselves and there'll be a drop off. Just happens sometimes to young teams.

I really want to win that Bulldogs game though. I think we'll really set ourselves for that one.

Come on mate after that Fremantle game i'm expecting finals this year.

 

[Sir Skid]

IMO we moved to 7am on the premiership clock this week.
We are on the up and up from here lads!
Another 3 first round pics and we'll be starting to head to the promised land

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Yea I can see us sneaking a win maybe two and ending up 16-17 on the ladder. I can also see GWS owning the first 3 picks or 3 of the first 4 picks and taking the best talent again! If Cameron goes to Melb GWS will be compensated at least Melbs first pick and their Frawley compo. So if GWS finish 18 and Melb 17 and the Cameron deal occurs there's GWS with picks 1, 2 and 3.

 

[sverik25]

Yea I can see us sneaking a win maybe two and ending up 16-17 on the ladder. I can also see GWS owning the first 3 picks or 3 of the first 4 picks and taking the best talent again! If Cameron goes to Melb GWS will be compensated at least Melbs first pick and their Frawley compo. So if GWS finish 18 and Melb 17 and the Cameron deal occurs there's GWS with picks 1, 2 and 3.

Well Cameron had better stay then. (Can't believe I just said that ).

 

[Gw1lt4Prezid3nt]

The problem is retaining the good whilst simultaneously attracting players to the club. Lets face it StKilda is possibly the least desirable club (except Brisbane maybe) to play at. The promising players such as Dunstan, Steven, Billings etc. have to be persuaded to stay. We can have all the number 1 draft picks and priority picks in the world but we won't go anywhere if they leave after 3 years of development put into them by the Saints. The vicious cycle needs to be broken...

 

[Sir Skid]

We are also one of the best options for players who are stick in line. Stuck not because of ability or size or attitude but simply because they are behind more senior players at their current club.

 

[Nutsngum]

The problem is retaining the good whilst simultaneously attracting players to the club. Lets face it StKilda is possibly the least desirable club (except Brisbane maybe) to play at. The promising players such as Dunstan, Steven, Billings etc. have to be persuaded to stay. We can have all the number 1 draft picks and priority picks in the world but we won't go anywhere if they leave after 3 years of development put into them by the Saints. The vicious cycle needs to be broken...

This isnt true in the slightest. Our player retention is pretty good and I can only think of Cripps as someone who has gone home in the the last 5 years.

The Seaford s**t is WAY overblown, living bayside is damn nice short of a few crappy areas and its not like they even need to live that close anyway. Also players arent idiots, they know how cyclic the game is and we have literally just come off almost a decade of finals appearances on a lot worse resources then we have now. They can see us making finals in the next 5 years without much issue. Seaford isnt Collingwood level by any means but its still a good training facility.

Above all the people there are more then worth staying for. Billings/Dunstan/Eli etc.. will all be 10+ year players mark my words.

 

[Michaelwebo]

We have hit the bottom but thats nothing to be down about, we are showing really, really promising signs (WE THRASHED FREO!!) but to give some perspective we were at the same point in our football back around 2000 after our squad fell apart after our 1997 Grand Final loss to Adelaide, where by 1999 we finished up 10th and by 2000 we had the wooden spoon.

We built our squad up from scratch well (Like we are today) with first establishing new fresh talent from the draft (Like we are today) held onto a legend Robert Harvey to bring the club he loves to the top (Nick Riewoldt Today) and slowly brought in players from other clubs like The G-Train and Aaron Hamill, we really challenged there in 2004 and we all know what happened from there.

Football is a cycle and for us it's just alot more vicious and tough, we'll get back to where we should be in a matter of time and i look forward to facing The Gold Coast Suns in the Grand Final in 2022

 

[Persevering Saint]

Just for those wishing we got the spoon this year, and hoping we lose against GC, etc. This from the wise kosifantutti on SS:

The last wooden spoon team to go on and win a flag at any time in the future was Collingwood 1999. It only took them 11 years and I don't think Josh Fraser had much to do with it.

 

[VDS66]

Ha ha ha... they just recruited poorly and missed out on Hamill and Gherig IIRC!

 

[Persevering Saint]

Interesting summary of a recent Diamond Members' Night on SS, but Back from the USA (aka saint sational , I think?):

OK I didn't take notes BUT here are things that stood out to me:

Kosi was MC:
- says the older players believe in Richo

Richardson
- losing our mid tier (geary, gilbert, armitage, steven) for huge chunks hurt our results round 6 onwards
- our kids are doing 33% more load during week (to get them up to AFL standards quicker)
- great having experience back in the side (last 2 games started to turn around)
- cohesion takes time (both defensive and attacking)
- keeps out of drafting (leaves it to Trout and his team)
- has input into trades but list management is chaired by Pelch ... with a committee deciding
- everyone in club working together on and off field (he has breakfast with Finnis every 2 weeks)

Finnis
- lobbying for even greater AFL compensation due to poor fixturing, poor stadium deal etc
- our community engagement needs rapid improvement
- sponsorship and sponsorship retention unacceptable (need more members and closer ties to community as sponsors need more value)
- having 30,000 members is completely unacceptable (plan to revise offer and drive for higher numbers)
- attendances unacceptable (plan to improve game day features)
- seaford facilities outstanding for training and administration
- moorabbin funding and plan exciting including our own VFL team (share footy hub facility with Southern Football league, Sandy Dragrons and the Umpires)
- junction oval is an AFL agenda item to clear up MCG for use and we are along for the ride if it comes together (like a free bonus) with Government funding
- new zealand - plan would be to get Auckland involved ASAP (2.3m people and 30,000 in kiwikick vs 400,000 people and 5000 in kiwikick)
- by end of the year the issue of our "home" will be settled but lots of talk re "port melbourne to portsea"
- philosophy at the club is that everyone is there to do a job and part of that job is making everyone elses job easier

All I can remember for now.

 

[Periphery]

by end of the year the issue of our "home" will be settled but lots of talk re "port melbourne to portsea"

So should we take this as the Junction oval decision will be sorted out by the end of the year?

 

[saint sational]

Interesting summary of a recent Diamond Members' Night on SS, but Back from the USA (aka saint sational , I think?):

Nah not me mate

 

[Big Mart]

Hayes, Fisher and Riewoldt gone.... 11 Best & Fairests

Then we'll feel rock bottom

2016

I think we will go up a bit in 2015... We cannot be as unlucky with injury?

But then dip again before a three year climb

 

[holllywood]

Hayes, Fisher and Riewoldt gone.... 11 Best & Fairests

Then we'll feel rock bottom

2016

I think we will go up a bit in 2015... We cannot be as unlucky with injury?

But then dip again before a three year climb

Because between now and then none of our young players will improve across the board?

 

[Persevering Saint]

I'm actually interested to see how Newnes goes this year. I reckon his "quiet achiever" tag is not felt internally, and that he's going to get a fair few votes.

 

[sverik25]

I'm actually interested to see how Newnes goes this year. I reckon his "quiet achiever" tag is not felt internally, and that he's going to get a fair few votes.

I reckon he's a very good chance of finishing top 5 in the B&F. Not many players have played as many games or been as consistent as him.