Preview Round 17 Early Thoughts: Swans vs Carlton

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Round 17 Top of the Table Sydney vs Carlton


When: Saturday July 12 7.40pm start


Where: SCG (thank god)


Ins and Outs: Probably the only inclusion will be Tippett for Rohan as a straight swap given Tippett's knee was only a precaution last Sunday. Jones looked ok on the bench during the last quarter and stood with the team after the game so again the assumption is he will be ok to play


Last Year: Corresponding game last year was the first official game of AFL played underwater. The Swans came out 65-43 winners in a game made memorable for the defence of the Swans in the first half in particular nearly keeping Carlton goalless but for the most ridiculous umpiring decision seen for quite a while when Mal was called for deliberately rushing a behind with a player elbow deep in him whilst offering to light his smoke. The highlights of Tim Watson reeling in four flathead in the forward pocket will stick in the mind for a few years yet and that time the shark took out the umpire in the third still is a knee slapper.




The other meeting is fondly remembered when in a semi final the Swans lost both Tippett and Mitchell in the first quarter but still managed a 86-62 victory with the scoreline not reflective of the ultimate dominance of Sydney. Macca played the game of his career with a lazy 42 possessions. It was one of the proudest wins I can recall in a long list overcoming a restricted bench and lack of a true target forward to, in reality, thrash the Blues,


Current Form: The Swans are on a streak unlike any in the clubs history and have beaten every side in the top 5 in the streak. Enough said.


Carlton meanwhile have been struggling all season losing the last 5 on the trot until flogging the Saints. Given how the Saints have been going this year the result must be viewed with a raised eyebrow or 2 but you can only beat what you face and they did it in apparent style.


Against the top 8 this season Carlton have not won a game losing to Port by 37, Collingwood by 34 and 15, Geelong by 5 and the Hawks by 28. Losses have included horrible results against the teenage Lions and GWS to name a few.


The Game: Both teams played last Sunday with the Swans having a slogfest in the wet at Pattersons with the sub being forced on them in the first quarter. Carlton had a bruise free encounter against some witches hats. This is merely noted with no excuses being offered in advace.


Key matchups will be Rowe and Jamison on Tippett and Buddy with Teddy and the AA ready Grundy looking to stop Henderson and Casboult. It will be interesting to see the Goodes/Reid match ups with a Swan favourite Everiit sure to grab one or both at different times. I have a feeling Bird will go to Murphy and McBabe or possibly Harry to play on Gibbs who is in a purple patch of form but having watched Cotchin rack them up for free in a weird half of footy who knows what Horse will do at the start.


All in all this should be a regulation win for the Swans. Top three offensive and defence vs bottom 5 offence and defence. Carlton are a club out of sorts still coming to terms with Mick and his style and while they have talent with first round picks on all lines they are yet to click as a unit and will meet a Swans team on top of the table at home in front of 35,000 plus fans looking to maintain the streak.


Carlton face a twofold problem in not having the artillery to score enough against the statistically second best defence in the league or the defence stopping arguably the best forward line in the game when they are on the field scoring.


Prediction: A 6 goal win to the Swans that look simply a better side on form playing on their favourite patch of dirt.

Oh by the way THIS IS NOT A DANGER GAME!!
 
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IN: Mitchell, Tippett
OUT: B. Jack, Jones
Not sure if Mitchell is fit. Same with Hanners. Would rather see Hanners in if he is fit. Don't want to see Jones out unless he can't play. Gonna be a good kid.

If Tippet doesn't play we need Derrixks in. Mainly so Reid can play full-forward and Franklin can take the best defender.

Our big forwards should squash Carlton
 
Not sure if Mitchell is fit. Same with Hanners. Would rather see Hanners in if he is fit. Don't want to see Jones out unless he can't play. Gonna be a good kid.

If Tippet doesn't play we need Derrixks in. Mainly so Reid can play full-forward and Franklin can take the best defender.

Our big forwards should squash Carlton

Hanners still a couple weeks away. Hopefully with the extra week off with the bye he should be right for the Hawthorn game.
 
Hanners still a couple weeks away. Hopefully with the extra week off with the bye he should be right for the Hawthorn game.
Jones will hopefully keep his spot (assuming he is right to play). Can only see BJ or Rohan going out for Tippet and someone if Jones if he isn't OK
 
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