Round 5 2014- Sydney Swans v Fremantle Dockers - SCG

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Grape Bear

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 12, 2012
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Middle of Nowhere
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Fremantle
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The beleaguered Sydney Swans host the Fremantle Dockers in a must-win game for both teams at the newly renovated SCG at 240pm WST today.

Teams

Sydney
B - Rampe, Richards, N Smith
HB - Malceski, H Grundy, R Shaw
C - Kieren Jack, Kennedy McVeigh
HF - McGlynn, LRT, Jetta
F - Parker, Franklin, B Jack
Fol -Pyke, Hannebery, Cunningham
I/C - Bird, Derickx, Laidler, Lloyd

Current Form - Sydney - L (GWS), L (Collingwood), W (Adelaide), L (North)

The Swans have been at the epicenter of media and fan criticism from late last year, when news of Buddy Franklin's defection to the Sydney club for a whopping (speculated) sum of $10 million for 10 years broke out. Many were baffled at how such a big name signing would affect the famed "Bloods Culture," which was built on a never-say-die spirit regardless of opposition and the collective team being more than the sum of its parts. Since then, the former 2012 premiers have been under the microscope, with every negative whisper from Sydney fanned up to a massive flame throughout the pre-season. Apart from this, due to their high profile acquisition, the Swans shot up to Top 4 favoritism long before a single shot had been fired for the 2014 season.

Unfortunately, this favoritism has not translated to on-field success in the first 4 rounds of the season. Following a shock loss to the reigning wooden spooners in GWS, the Swans have lost 3 of their first four games in the 2014 season - against teams that they needed to beat to make top 4. The Swans are beset by injury, down on form, and are still trying to get their heads around a game plan with Buddy as their spearhead. The AFL media have stuck the boot in for better or worse, and the drums are beating over at Sydney. The players know that they are now playing for their individual seasons today, and a loss today would have their campaign hopes for a 2014 premiership dashed.

The odds are historically stacked against them if they cannot make the Top 4. With games against fellow contenders still to come, their chances look improbable. But they have dug themselves out of similar holes years before - and went on to win the flag. No one is writing off the Swans just yet, and they are still a very good chance to beat the Dockers during this game.


Fremantle
B - Dawson, McPharlin, Spurr
HB - Suban, Johnson, Duffield
C - Suttcliffe, Crowley, Mundy
HF - Fyfe, Pavlich, DeBoer
F - Ballantyne, Clarke, Mayne
Foll - Sandilands, Mzungu, Hill
I/C - C Pearce, D Pearce, Neale, Taberner

IN - Mayne, Fyfe
OUT - Crozier, Simpson

Current Form - Fremantle - W (Collingwood), W (GCS), L (Hawthorn), W (Essendon)

The Dockers' Cinderella run into last year's Grand Final and failure to close it out with a win against the Hawks has set the tone for this year's early season narrative. Finally gaining recognition as a legitimate contender, the Dockers were touted to use their burning desire for redemption to go one better in 2014. Top ups to strengthen the list in Colin Sylvia through free agency and Scott Gumbleton only firmed the Dockers into serious contention for a top 4 spot and a berth to the last day in September.

Losses to the Eagles in the pre-season quickly had some bandwagoners jumping off. An early injury to Gumbleton and Sylvia's lacklustre pre-season debut have added tarnish to the fairy tale. The Dockers' 70 point demolition of Collingwood in Round 1 was seen to be the signs of good things to come from the men in Purple. However, an undermanned Hawthorn's annihialation of RTB's touted defensive game plan on the expanses of the MCG has shaken belief in the Docker's top 4 credentials despite its dismantling of Essendon in Perth the following week.

Hit by suspension and injury to key players so early in the season, Fremantle's depth and the systems RTB has in place are facing a very serious challenge. The supporting players who have stepped up to the plate are still finding form, building chemistry, and learning not to get in each others' way, much like the Swans. Big inclusions this week in Mayne and Fyfe are both coming in down on match fitness and back from injury. The pressure to build is squarely on the Dockers as they go through a tough first section of the draw with consecutive 6 day breaks versus quality opposition.

Fremantle are under no illusions - this is a must-win game.

Last 5 encounters
2PF, 2013, Fremantle 14.15 (99) d Sydney Swans 11.8 (74) at Patersons Stadium
R8, 2013, Sydney Swans 11.14 (70) drew Fremantle 9.16 (70) at the SCG
R2, 2012, Sydney Swans 14.10 (94) d Fremantle 12.9 (81) at the SCG
R17, 2011, Fremantle 15.8 (98) d Sydney Swans 13.9 (87) at the SCG
R20, 2010, Sydney Swans 14.12 (96) d Fremantle 13.9 (87) at Patersons Stadium

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Whilst the Dockers clinically demolished the Swans during last year's final series at Paterson's Stadium, it must be emphasized that nothing (literally!) separated these two teams during their last encounter at the SCG. Ross will be the first to say that the past counts for nothing, but he and the team will likely draw confidence from the fact that the Dockers historically play well at the SCG. Nat Fyfe in particular.

Last year at the SCG, the Swans got the jump on the boys in Purple early in the game, with Hanneberry, in particular, tearing Freo a new one. He slipped his Crowley manacle again and again as Sydney murdered the Dockers on their famed slingshot throughout the second and the third. It didn't help the Dockers losing their most potent forward in Walters early on. But the Purple Haze showed their mettle by fighting back despite being down 27 points with 10 minutes to go in the final quarter to almost pinch the win. Only a match saving mark on the goal line by Sydney's Reid prevented Fremantle from stealing all 4 points from the Swans.

The Swans are down on form and are still learning how to play together after all the changes in their line up. However, a cornered enemy is a dangerous enemy, and the Swans are a dangerous side during the best of times. They will come out breathing fire and should not be underestimated. As our favorite wise man loves to say, "Things are never as good or as bad as they seem." If the Dockers do not bring their A game to the party, the Bloods will have them right where they want them - and storm home with the 4 points.

Luckily, the bosses at the Freo helm will be the last people to underestimate the Sydney Swans - the model of the on-field playing culture and hardworking ethos that the WA club has been instilling in its playing group for the last 2 years. The Dockers will have a point to prove themselves that their depth and their systems can stand up to personnel losses and that they continue to be an "Anywhere, anyone, anytime" club, especially with their tough start to the season. Big inclusions in Nat Fyfe and Chris Mayne are welcome ones, though, and may prove to be the difference this game.

Tip: Fremantle by 6 points in an instant classic.
 
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Last 5 encounters
2PF, 2013, Fremantle 14.15 (99) d Sydney Swans 11.8 (74) at Patersons Stadium
R8, 2013, Sydney Swans 11.14 (70) drew Fremantle 9.16 (70) at the SCG
R2, 2012, Sydney Swans 14.10 (94) d Fremantle 12.9 (81) at the SCG
R17, 2011, Fremantle 15.8 (98) d Sydney Swans 13.9 (87) at the SCG
R20, 2010, Sydney Swans 14.12 (96) d Fremantle 13.9 (87) at Patersons Stadium


Tip: Fremantle by 6 points in an instant classic.
Going by the past few encounters that seems a reasonable tip. The largest and most recent margin was 25 points. However, Sydney were in ordinary form then.

They're in ordinary form now, but I feel they'll want to make a statement.
 
Tippett still 1 week out from return.
Sydney outs: O'Keefe, Rohan, Mitchell, Cloud
Ins: Bird, B. Jack, Lloyd(debut), Sunshine

All I want is a 4-quarter effort from us today even if we fall short. Freo by 10.
 
Tippett still 1 week out from return.
Sydney outs: O'Keefe, Rohan, Mitchell, Cloud
Ins: Bird, B. Jack, Lloyd(debut), Sunshine

All I want is a 4-quarter effort from us today even if we fall short. Freo by 10.
Why was Mitchell and Rohan omitted? Is Mitchell injured and Rohan just in poor form?
 

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Johnson and Mcpharlin to rebound off Franklin.
 
Freo by 8 goals, swans in big trouble.
 
The last time Sydney beat a top 8 side was Adelaide in Round 11 last year.

(Not counting Carlton in that final since they only made the 8 by default)

Could be wrong on that stat but as far as I can tell, it's accurate.

EDIT: Corrected below. They beat Richmond in Round 18.

Correct stat: One win over a top 8 side since Round 10 2013.
 
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