Saudi Arabia and GCC entered Yemen Conflict

Tasmaniac

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http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middl...military-operation-yemen-150325234138956.html

Saudi's and the GCC have been talking for a while about potentially going into Yemen to try and neutralise the Iranian backed Houthi movement's advances.

Looks like they're actually started with airstrikes. I wonder how significant the intervention will be?

From memory, a few years ago, they did intervene when the civil war fighting threatened to breach their borders (really just gave them an excuse to drop some bombs on the Houthi's to help their Sunni mates).

Further Shiite vs Sunni niggling coming up. They never get sick of it.
 

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http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middl...military-operation-yemen-150325234138956.html

Saudi's and the GCC have been talking for a while about potentially going into Yemen to try and neutralise the Iranian backed Houthi movement's advances.

Looks like they're actually started with airstrikes. I wonder how significant the intervention will be?

From memory, a few years ago, they did intervene when the civil war fighting threatened to breach their borders (really just gave them an excuse to drop some bombs on the Houthi's to help their Sunni mates).

Further Shiite vs Sunni niggling coming up. They never get sick of it.
I don't think the Saudis actually have many mates in Yemen. This is lunacy, are they trying to unify Yemenis here or something?
Nothing good can come of this.
 

Tasmaniac

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I don't think the Saudis actually have many mates in Yemen. This is lunacy, are they trying to unify Yemenis here or something?
Nothing good can come of this.

I don't know the exact demographic %'s, but a very large chunk (probably greater than 50% are Sunni). So when push comes to shove vs Shiite's, they are all Saudi's 'mates', including elements of AQ and at least a handful of militants who identify with ISIS.

Lot's of factions/tribes/militant groups, and that's just on the Sunni side of things. They would prefer to spend their times dragging each other down, but when the Shiites get too big for their boots (according the Saudi's), they tend to work together (somewhat), and if/when they push the Houthi's back a bit, the factions will go back to dragging each other down.
 

carnthemlions

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I don't know the exact demographic %'s, but a very large chunk (probably greater than 50% are Sunni). So when push comes to shove vs Shiite's, they are all Saudi's 'mates', including elements of AQ and at least a handful of militants who identify with ISIS.

Lot's of factions/tribes/militant groups, and that's just on the Sunni side of things. They would prefer to spend their times dragging each other down, but when the Shiites get too big for their boots (according the Saudi's), they tend to work together (somewhat), and if/when they push the Houthi's back a bit, the factions will go back to dragging each other down.
This is more about Yemen than sectarian squabbles- the Saudis getting involved is more likely to remind everyone that they hate the Saudis more than they hate each other. Not your traditional Iranian backed Shia group vs Saudi/GCC backed Sunni group sorta thing.
 

blackcat

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This is more about Yemen than sectarian squabbles- the Saudis getting involved is more likely to remind everyone that they hate the Saudis more than they hate each other. Not your traditional Iranian backed Shia group vs Saudi/GCC backed Sunni group sorta thing.
just add the advanced war materiel technology seeping into what was once just sectarian squabbles. all those arms that come from Libya, and other conflicts that the americans have confected and pump primed with their best ground weapons for their militants, for our militants.

yemen's biggest war is drinking water. and getting enough water. their war is with the sand, and their own geography. A James Bond film about a decade ago had this resource as the thematic scaffolding
 
I don't think the Saudis actually have many mates in Yemen. This is lunacy, are they trying to unify Yemenis here or something?
Nothing good can come of this.

When you've got that much money, you've got 'mates' everywhere....
 
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with current conflicts in the area this was inevitable anyone thinking this isn't a sunni v shia issue hasn't been paying attention to anything coming out of Riyadh over the last for years.

the framework for a new united sunni front has been laid out of the last few years, hell the divide between them has been largely over religious political groups.

the current saudi king and turkish administration have had a vested interest in kicking this into gear for years as they want to keep the religion first party's rather than nation first out of power. the new egyptian authorities now want this too as they are pushing (at least publicly) national unity.

focusing on yeman just makes sense, they're easy targets. it distracts from the Issue of how to deal with IS, dissuades anyone else in the region from relying on iran and drives support for the sunni coalition. but still it boils down for the people to sunni vs shia.

with the US starting to take a back seat in the region lending only a supportive role to regional powers, conflicts will start to develop on multiple fronts across the region.

It's not something thats good, but it is necessary one hopes it doesn't blow up into a full scale conflict. but the "arab spring" is far from over, the conflicts just evolved.

bahrain is another one thats going to flair up sooner or later, people won't keep taking s**t forever.
 

little graham

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Posted before, well worth the watch. Saudi's marched in with their tanks to protect the sunni minority dictatorship. Americans rewarded both Bahrain and Saudi Arabia with a big arms deal. America has a large naval base here.




A few weeks ago the American drone operators/spies were run out of Yemen.
 

blackcat

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with current conflicts in the area this was inevitable anyone thinking this isn't a sunni v shia issue hasn't been paying attention to anything coming out of Riyadh over the last for years.

the framework for a new united sunni front has been laid out of the last few years, hell the divide between them has been largely over religious political groups.

the current saudi king and turkish administration have had a vested interest in kicking this into gear for years as they want to keep the religion first party's rather than nation first out of power. the new egyptian authorities now want this too as they are pushing (at least publicly) national unity.

focusing on yeman just makes sense, they're easy targets. it distracts from the Issue of how to deal with IS, dissuades anyone else in the region from relying on iran and drives support for the sunni coalition. but still it boils down for the people to sunni vs shia.

with the US starting to take a back seat in the region lending only a supportive role to regional powers, conflicts will start to develop on multiple fronts across the region.

It's not something thats good, but it is necessary one hopes it doesn't blow up into a full scale conflict. but the "arab spring" is far from over, the conflicts just evolved.

bahrain is another one thats going to flair up sooner or later, people won't keep taking s**t forever.
nah, the Saudis are an American puppet. The Americans still have special forces, JSOC, drones, JDAMs on the ground/in the region. It is like game theory in Economics, it is the same, but we get a different slant on it. like "the surge is working" "the surge worked", like paying off sunni insurgents, until you stop paying them off.
 
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nah, the Saudis are an American puppet. The Americans still have special forces, JSOC, drones, JDAMs on the ground/in the region. It is like game theory in Economics, it is the same, but we get a different slant on it. like "the surge is working" "the surge worked", like paying off sunni insurgents, until you stop paying them off.

once again taking complex regional issues and trying to boil them to a few things.
no the regional issues were there long before the yanks went anywhere near it.

the regional issues are the very reason the russians got into bed with the Iranians was because the Irainians hated the Saudis and Russians didn't want the US controlling the Oil.

ever since then both iran and saudi arabia have enjoyed backing of their main clients because they forged strong political ties to ensure the relationship remained strong. today whats good for one is good for the other.
Russia will always back Iran and the US will always back the Saudis.
inversely Iran will always back Russia and the Saudis will always back the US.

neither is a puppet of the other there relationship is always mutually beneficial. trying to lay blame for the Saudis strengthening their regional ties and focusing on old conflicts on the US, isn't just ignorant it pretends the region isn't capable of having its own political sphere.
 

blackcat

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once again taking complex regional issues and trying to boil them to a few things.
no the regional issues were there long before the yanks went anywhere near it.

the regional issues are the very reason the russians got into bed with the Iranians was because the Irainians hated the Saudis and Russians didn't want the US controlling the Oil.

ever since then both iran and saudi arabia have enjoyed backing of their main clients because they forged strong political ties to ensure the relationship remained strong. today whats good for one is good for the other.
Russia will always back Iran and the US will always back the Saudis.
inversely Iran will always back Russia and the Saudis will always back the US.

neither is a puppet of the other there relationship is always mutually beneficial. trying to lay blame for the Saudis strengthening their regional ties and focusing on old conflicts on the US, isn't just ignorant it pretends the region isn't capable of having its own political sphere.
it is what Zbigniew Brzezinski said about Central Asia and the ME. Control that strategic asset, you control, or obtain world hegemon.

Saudi Arabia's status is nothing like Iran and Russia. Saudi Arabia are very much a puppet, albeit, the Americans do stay out of their business, besides keep their stocks full of materiel and fighters(jet aircraft), albeit, with less technology and combat dogfight tricks than the ones the Israelis get. I am not even completely sure of how much access the troops in Saud have to their quartermaster munitions, just incase they decide to toss the royals.

As soon as China got interested in the oil in Iran, America were willing to listen to the concerns that Israel had about the persians being a threatening regional power. Before, the Americans were quite willing, to let them just go about their way, with no influence in Iraq and the sunni states.

When China's appetite struggles to be met, and they cannot get full access to Iran's oil, then we are likely to see the conflagration and s**t hit the fan. Then the Israelis might have to take a bite, because a degree of power will shift over the next century from the US sphere to China. I would be seriously interested to see how the Israelis play that, because they have a symbiotic relationship with the US, not those other states you say where this is the give-take symbiosis. Not many recognise the value the Israelis have to offer to the Americans. Usually all you hear is they are an anchor, a lead weight for America. Not so, they provide intelligence (spook definition), plus weapons technology and a partner to the arms industry. It will be interesting to see how they uncouple when push comes to shove with China over 5 decades out from now.
 
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Not many recognise the value the Israelis have to offer to the Americans. Usually all you hear is they are an anchor, a lead weight for America. Not so, they provide intelligence (spook definition), plus weapons technology and a partner to the arms industry.

Either they aren't good at gathering or aren't great at sharing given consistent US intelligence stuff ups in the ME. Or just blame Rodham?
 

blackcat

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Either they aren't good at gathering or aren't great at sharing given consistent US intelligence stuff ups in the ME. Or just blame Rodham?
brinksmanship and horse-trading. they try to get more and rent-seek, helped by Adelson and Saban and AIPAC. Its simple negotiation strategy101, you dont have to like it. I can see where resent would come from those outside the beltway and the MIC. or congressional MICC. They do pump prime the economy with the technology advances. but now I will stop being a shill and hasbarim.
 

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http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middl...military-operation-yemen-150325234138956.html

Saudi's and the GCC have been talking for a while about potentially going into Yemen to try and neutralise the Iranian backed Houthi movement's advances.

Looks like they're actually started with airstrikes. I wonder how significant the intervention will be?

From memory, a few years ago, they did intervene when the civil war fighting threatened to breach their borders (really just gave them an excuse to drop some bombs on the Houthi's to help their Sunni mates).

Further Shiite vs Sunni niggling coming up. They never get sick of it.


https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/09SANAA2186_a.html#efmAjaAmV
 

awaremind

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it is what Zbigniew Brzezinski said about Central Asia and the ME. Control that strategic asset, you control, or obtain world hegemon.

Saudi Arabia's status is nothing like Iran and Russia. Saudi Arabia are very much a puppet, albeit, the Americans do stay out of their business, besides keep their stocks full of materiel and fighters, albeit, with less technology and combat dogfight tricks than the ones the Israelis get. I am not even completely sure of how much access the troops in Saud have to their quartermaster munitions, just incase they decide to toss the royals.

As soon as China got interested in the oil in Iran, America were willing to listen to the concerns that Israel had about the persians being a threatening regional power. Before, the Americans were quite willing, to let them just go about their way, with no influence in Iraq and the sunni states.

When China's appetite struggles to be met, and they cannot get full access to Iran's oil, then we are likely to see the conflagration and s**t hit the fan. Then the Israelis might have to take a bite, because a degree of power will shift over the next century from the US sphere to China. I would be seriously interested to see how the Israelis play that, because they have a symbiotic relationship with the US, not those other states you say where this is the give-take symbiosis. Not many recognise the value the Israelis have to offer to the Americans. Usually all you hear is they are an anchor, a lead weight for America. Not so, they provide intelligence (spook definition), plus weapons technology and a partner to the arms industry. It will be interesting to see how they uncouple when push comes to shove with China over 5 decades out from now.
Agree but I think the next 5 years more than the next 5 decades will have some major developments in balance of power.
 

blackcat

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Agree but I think the next 5 years more than the next 5 decades will have some major developments in balance of power.
not in the ME. The Israelis will be the hegemon, and I am fine with that, its how it should be. I cant see anyone overtaking them in the next century. It will be up to the Sinos and the Indians and how they tip geopolitik[sic] scales. I think the Israelis are fine being little bro with uncle Sam in the next half century, then it will be interesting to see how the Sinos and the Indians do business with the Israelis. One thing in their favour, as long as technology stays the driver of the economy, I cannot (warning double negative), I cannot see how the Israeli's are not a key driver in world economy, and indispensable. Their susceptibility will be how the intellectual and technological drivers of those economies progress(india/china). There are about half a dozen IIT's, indian institute of technology(ies), that have a competitive position with MIT and Caltech. This has been the driver in Bangalore. I think China are a step behind. Peking Uni is the harvard, but I hear anecdotally, they are not with the indians in their tech academy.

The fact that they steal and rip-off so much IP, does not steel them well for future innovation. manufacturing will always be a lowest common cost denominator, cost input, price strategy, cost structures. Not a way to build a future economy, you leave that to Cambodia and Vietnam and Bangladesh and Egypt. see: the evolution of Taiwan.
 
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blackcat

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ps. i like korea. i think they will slingshot alot of nations. even if samsung suffers like nokia, sKorea have a sweet spot, large population but NOT unwieldy like China/India/Brazil/Russia, and they have the tech gene. They will fly by Japan in the next decades. kimchi ftw, who said they did not like cured cabbage

obvious susceptibilty is the North
 
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