Analysis Season 2015

[Tairy Greene]

Gatorade? You bet.

Yes mum.

 

[POBT]

Yes mum.

Gatorade and speedballs.

Better?

 

[Panthera]

True b

True but having 2 games in Melbourne in the first 10 would more than make up for it. Would be great for membership engagement.

2 out of first 5 in Melbourne

 

[Paul D]

Burpengary, Coffs Harbour and Gold Coast. Not too much travel during the Pre-Season which is nice.

Wonder which venue will get the customary washout? Seems to happen every year.

 

[Caiphus]

It's a nice 4.5 hour drive to coffs. About my limit for driving vs ******* around with airports.

 

[augie]

There was a bit of discussion floating around a few threads on our chances for next season and also where our goals are going to come from. Thought I might start a new one to get it all in one place.

For mine I would be ok with next season if we got 10-12 wins and a percentage around 100. We're still young at either end of the ground but of course our midfield now bats a lot deeper and has more topline talent as well.

Just on the goals front, I can see goals coming from our midfield/smalls something like the below

Green - 40
Beams - 20
Zorko - 30
Rockliff - 20
Rich - 20
Hanley - 20
Christensen - 20
Mayes - 15-20
Taylor - 15-20
Aish - 10

Thats about 220 goals from our midfield which would pretty much equal our output in total from this year. If you then add in our tall forwards we should certainly be able to increase our goal output this season hopefully closer to 300 which would sit us about mid table. Now I know a few in that list would have to have seasons best goals but I see scope for that given we will have a much larger rotation of our midfield stocks through our forward line and should be winning a bit more ball than we did this year. Of course its not guaranteed but I certainly see scope for our scoring to improve significantly without having that 50 goal forward.

I know Collingwood fans are delusional, but gee you are pushing yourself up there with them. Not just a few who need to have seasons bests, pretty much every player on that list is going to kick more goals than they ever have before.

I understand you don't have a forward line, and so you have to invest your hope in your midfield, but if you think this is going to happen you are in for a disappointing time in 2015.

 

[Fatcat08]

I know Collingwood fans are delusional, but gee you are pushing yourself up there with them. Not just a few who need to have seasons bests, pretty much every player on that list is going to kick more goals than they ever have before.

I understand you don't have a forward line, and so you have to invest your hope in your midfield, but if you think this is going to happen you are in for a disappointing time in 2015.

A few might not reach those exact numbers but as a general trend I don't think that's way out of the realms of possibility.

1. Yes most of them are going to have to have personal bests but given they're all around that 25/26 or under age then I'd be pretty disappointed if they all didn't have improvement in them. We're not talking about 28-30 year olds here.
2. In the last few years we've still been pretty shallow depth wise in our midfield, meaning our mids have had to play the majority of their games in the midfield. When they didn't we got smashed and the ball never got forward. We've certainly improved our midfield options therefore each player will spend more time forward of centre, and when they do we have better quality still there winning the ball meaning it will get forward more often.
3. If you had watched us in the second half of last year our gameplan was adjusted slightly to take advantage of quick ball movement and we kicked a large percentage of our goals from running into 50 with handballs. Given the makeup of our list I don't see this strategy changing, if anything we're probably going to go further down this path. That's going to create goalkicking opportunities for our mids and half forwards.

Obviously there will be injuries along the way and the numbers probably won't quite reach those levels. Some will go under some will go over but I don't think the final number of goals from our mids and smalls will be too far off. Will revisit and see at the end of the season I guess. If you're going to come on another teams board and then try to pick me apart at least provide some reasoning back the other way rather than simply saying "we'll they'll all need to kick more than they ever have before" and ignore all the reasons why i stated it was possible.

And finally don't sit there on our board and lump me in with some of the crap going on on yours. At least I took the time to put in a reasoned argument and outlined the thinking and reasoning behind my thoughts. Sure it might be a tad optimistic but its a heck of a lot better than some of the single line bullshit that's flying around over your way.

 

[matwt73]

This year I think we were a side in the 10-14 range who got a tough draw and finished 15th.

Next year I think we will be a side in the 10-14 range who should have an eiser draw and will finish 9th.

I anticipate that we will be a better side next year, If Dayne Beams, Redden and Rich all play full years we are Automitically a better side. With another year into Clarke and Gardiner (and Cutler) I think we will be better physically down back, though what we lose in Joel going will be telling. I think our backline has the pieces but needs that development.

I see two risks
- stalled progress, and not from the younger players but from our established players. Hanley and Rockliff had career best years last year. Hanley has had career best years every year for the last three, i hope it continues but at some point his development may plateau. We are always talking about how well rich will do if other players are getting tagged, that is not necessarily a given. Can Zorko or Green play any better than they did this year?
- a lack of key forward. I love almost everything about Michael Close, but that doesn't mean I am convinced he is the answer to our forward line issues. Likewise McStay or jono. I don't expect that we will have three players kick 50 goas. 3 x 50 is finals form. But 3 x 30 and a couple in the 20's would be a start.

 

[Skoob]

A few might not reach those exact numbers but as a general trend I don't think that's way out of the realms of possibility.

1. Yes most of them are going to have to have personal bests but given they're all around that 25/26 or under age then I'd be pretty disappointed if they all didn't have improvement in them. We're not talking about 28-30 year olds here.
2. In the last few years we've still been pretty shallow depth wise in our midfield, meaning our mids have had to play the majority of their games in the midfield. When they didn't we got smashed and the ball never got forward. We've certainly improved our midfield options therefore each player will spend more time forward of centre, and when they do we have better quality still there winning the ball meaning it will get forward more often.
3. If you had watched us in the second half of last year our gameplan was adjusted slightly to take advantage of quick ball movement and we kicked a large percentage of our goals from running into 50 with handballs. Given the makeup of our list I don't see this strategy changing, if anything we're probably going to go further down this path. That's going to create goalkicking opportunities for our mids and half forwards.

Obviously there will be injuries along the way and the numbers probably won't quite reach those levels. Some will go under some will go over but I don't think the final number of goals from our mids and smalls will be too far off. Will revisit and see at the end of the season I guess. If you're going to come on another teams board and then try to pick me apart at least provide some reasoning back the other way rather than simply saying "we'll they'll all need to kick more than they ever have before" and ignore all the reasons why i stated it was possible.

And finally don't sit there on our board and lump me in with some of the crap going on on yours. At least I took the time to put in a reasoned argument and outlined the thinking and reasoning behind my thoughts. Sure it might be a tad optimistic but its a heck of a lot better than some of the single line bullshit that's flying around over your way.

Right on.
Those figures aren't beyond the realms of possibility at all.
We have had some awful luck with injury:

Tom Cutler (groin) 2 weeks

Matthew Leuenberger (Achilles) test

Patrick Wearden (quad) 4 weeks

Brent Moloney (Achilles) test

Jack Redden (ankle) season

Daniel Rich (knee) season

Brent Staker (foot) season

Trent West (knee) season

Luke McGuane (knee) season

That list (after round 17) doesn't include Brown, who had retired by then, nor does it include guys who had been out and back in by then.
For years we have had an unfair quantity or quality of players out for long stints or the season. Ignore the fact that some of those won't be there next year, it is representative of our state of affairs, any given week over the last few years. Even back in 2010, we were top of the ladder after 4 rounds before Brown was out with a smashed scone and Fev was struggling with his groins. 2 spearheads, buggered for most of the season.
If we can get/stay fit, our new look/refreshed midfield will make a big difference to the team as a whole and each of those Fatcat08 listed are a good chance to achieve career best scoring stats.
Fatcat08 's goal projections/wishlist, it is easy to see a long list of names kicking a goal or 2 per game and make the mistake of thinking each is expected to kick their average each game. That's not the case though augie. Each of those are capable of those suggested totals.
Some may be optimistic, but we've got every reason to be.

 

[Bucking Beads]

A weekend at Coffs Harbour in March to watch the Lions play the Swans could be good.

 

[Dylan12]

No pre-season training camp at altitude for Lions

AFTER sending players to Arizona for the past three seasons, the Brisbane Lions have decided not to train at altitude overseas this pre-season. The club sent five senior players to Arizona in 2011, 18 in 2012 and the entire playing group, excepting those yet to be drafted, last season. Lions football manager Dean Warren told AFL.com.au that those trips had been successful but because of the changing list profile it was time for the club to take a different tack. "This year we're going to do it later and do it with the whole group when the whole group is together," Warren said. "[This camp will be] more around team building and leadership and giving back to the community."

The Lions intend to spend a week at Noosa from December 3-7 in a camp geared towards achieving team building rather than conditioning outcomes. Other clubs criticised the Lions' decision to travel to Arizona last season during the equalisation debate given their parlous financial condition. However Warren said in reality that trip was funded through corporate sponsorship and player contributions rather than money that would otherwise have improved the club's bottom line. He said that the main impetus for the first camp in 2011 was to give veterans such as Jonathan Brown and Simon Black something new to stimulate their training. "Arizona gave us a good kick start to the pre-season from a training and altitude point of view but it was probably just as important for us to provide a different training stimulus for our players," Warren said.

 

[Dylan12]

Mitch Robinson? Jesse Stringer? Clubs weigh up which delisted players are worth a punt

"Better the devil you know" is an idiom that might be occupying the minds of more than a few AFL list managers at the moment. Football clubs take many calculated risks over the course of a year, but perhaps none so obvious as the decisions taken in October and November. After a year's worth of intensive scrutiny of young talent, do they back their judgments on prospects likely to be taken only lower in the draft pecking order? Or roll the dice on players they've already watched go around for a rival at AFL level? It's no easy call, that between a kid with talent but still to prove he can survive the rigours of the AFL system, and a more seasoned player out-of-favour at his previous home but who has at least already done the developmental hard yards.

Carlton, for example, has jettisoned three players who'll all have some appeal elsewhere. The interest of the Brisbane Lions and Richmond in Mitch Robinson is entirely understandable. The Lions have, in one off-season, put together a midfield with some serious depth and talent via the addition of Dayne Beams and Allen Christensen. Add the return of Daniel Rich to the establishment of Tom Rockliff, Jack Redden, Pearce Hanley, Dayne Zorko, James Aish and Sam Mayes, and a player like Robinson becomes more icing on the cake, free to parade his bull-at-a-gate enthusiasm with far less pressure than he dealt with at times at Carlton.

 

[Dizzle]

Second year in a row I reckon we have 'Won' the offseason. Albeit last year was won in retrospect once we realised that we turned the F*** off 5 into something potentially far greater.

This offseason we retired 2 club greats (Brown & McGrath) gracefully and recent addition Beamer also. All 3 were automatic inclusions in their prime but the fact was their respective primes were long since gone. With those three and some delistings and trades we lost 1,076 games (by my calcs) from the senior list, with only Patfull being capable of a walk up start in 2015. But we even allowed him to exit gracefully to GWS, and managed to improve our midfield in the process.

Now with Beams, Christensen and (gulp) Robinson we have three automatic first 22 inclusions (in my opinion), all of whom are younger but already proven in the AFL, having only 275 games between them. All three should have their prime ahead of them if they can stay on the park. With the framework already in place I think we have gotten younger and better. Our starting 22 should be as good as anything we have trotted out since the glory years.

Only the Patfull shaped hole in defence will hurt next year. Our forward line didn't improve yet but we didn't lose anything either (aside from the retirees who could no longer play there) so that will need to develop with experience and hopefully the return of Stakes and/or McGuane.

With Rich, Leuey and Redden also coming back I am quite bullish about 2015. Not Top 8 bullish yet, but 'clearly on the right path' bullish, capable of beating mid-tier teams on our day and starting to frighten the big boys if they sleep on us.

Building a premiership squad in the AFL is about baby steps, but we took a couple big ones in the last 15 months. So like, Yay.

 

[Quigley]

No pre-season training camp at altitude for Lions

I am a bit surprised we haven't followed Port and gone for a heat rather than altitude approach. Brisbane is warmer than the southern states admittedly but even in summer the mornings and afternoons/evenings when most sessions are done warm rather than uncomfortable. A camp up in Cairns (GC territory admittedly) or Darwin would be a test and especially in Darwin I would expect it to be very well received.

 

[whatboutbob]

I am a bit surprised we haven't followed Port and gone for a heat rather than altitude approach. Brisbane is warmer than the southern states admittedly but even in summer the mornings and afternoons/evenings when most sessions are done warm rather than uncomfortable. A camp up in Cairns (GC territory admittedly) or Darwin would be a test and especially in Darwin I would expect it to be very well received.

The Noosa sessions I've observed have been uncomfortably hot, and that's just sitting on the sidelines!

 

[carnthemlions]

I am a bit surprised we haven't followed Port and gone for a heat rather than altitude approach. Brisbane is warmer than the southern states admittedly but even in summer the mornings and afternoons/evenings when most sessions are done warm rather than uncomfortable. A camp up in Cairns (GC territory admittedly) or Darwin would be a test and especially in Darwin I would expect it to be very well received.

It's actually not that hot in Dubai in December. It would be hotter(and more humid) in Brisbane to be honest. I think the Port heat training thing has been slightly exaggerated, it's more about training at a comfortable temperature(not above 30 degrees) with reasonably high humidity levels. You want to be able to make things uncomfortable while still being able to do a certain level of training.
Not sure you could do that in Darwin, it's just too hot.

 

[Panthera]

Looking at our 2015 best team; it's probable (barring injury which is highly likely if that makes sense ) that 6 of our best 22, when fit, will be either new to the club or returning from an injury interrupted season. Or both (Christensen). None played more than 12 games for the Lions this year, with none playing more than 3 games together in 2014.

That's a fairly high % for a young team.

The below list has a games average of 90 and includes 2 premiership players, 2 top ten draft picks, potentially the best ruckman in the AFL and player whose career is on the line next year:

1. Dayne Beams
2. Allen Christensen
3. Daniel Rich
4. Stefan Martin
5. Matthew Leuenberger
6. Mitch Robinson

Interesting.

To me anyway.

 

[winged1]

Looking at our 2015 best team; it's probable (barring injury which is highly likely if that makes sense ) that 6 of our best 22, when fit, will be either new to the club or returning from an injury interrupted season. Or both (Christensen). None played more than 12 games for the Lions this year, with none playing more than 3 games together in 2014.

That's a fairly high % for a young team.

The below list has a games average of 90 and includes 2 premiership players, 2 top ten draft picks, potentially the best ruckman in the AFL and player whose career is on the line next year:

1. Dayne Beams
2. Allen Christensen
3. Daniel Rich
4. Stefan Martin
5. Matthew Leuenberger
6. Mitch Robinson

Interesting.

To me anyway.

Jack Redden says hello

 

[snooplions]

Jack Redden says hello

A softly spoken hello

 

[jackess]

#3 – ALLEN CHRISTENSEN (formerly number 28 at Geelong)
Most recently worn by: Brent Moloney
Most games (Club History): Michael Voss – 283

#5 – MITCH ROBINSON (formerly number 12 at Carlton)
Most recently worn by: Jack Crisp
Most games (Club History): John Murphy – 214

#9 – DAYNE BEAMS (formerly number 17 at Collingwood)
Most recently worn by: Ash McGrath
Most games (Club History): Ash McGrath – 214

#19 – JOSH CLAYTON (formerly number 12 at Sandringham Dragons)
Most recently worn by: Jordan Lisle
Most games (Club History): David McMahon – 218

#24 – LIAM DAWSON (formerly number 38 at Aspley)
Most recently worn by: Joel Patfull
Most games (Club History): Joel Patfull – 182

#31 – HARRIS ANDREWS (formerly number 27 at Aspley)
Most recently worn by: James Polkinghorne
Most games (Club History): Bert Clay – 157

Good to see they're leaving number 20 free for Keays.

 

[Simba Moyo]

Really stoked for Dawson inheriting #24. He spoke really highly of Patfull and models his game after him. I love the idea that everytime he runs out as a Lion, he wears the same number as one of his idols and sees Patfull's name engraved on his locker with aspirations of getting his name on there too.

One of those small things in football which makes me happy.

 

[Panthera]

Jack Redden says hello

He missed rd. 16 onwards...our season was done and dusted by the time he checked out, but yes, he'll be a welcome addition come round 1 2015.

 

[pOleK]

IMO I don't really care where we finish. As long as we beat those f***ing magpies

 

[pOleK]

Also, on sportsbet where $3.75 to make the top 8 (tied with carlton) I think we could be higher

 

[singaport]

This year is looking very promising,but i think it will take a few games for all the new combos to click.The big thing port showed was the `100% buy in by the whole football dept ( players inc.) is a massive plus.At the end of the day i hope all involved believe we can win the flag THIS year.
A convincing win over the mystery bags would be a great way to start the season and add the belief of team success. If we aint in it to win we are just making a donation.


Ps probably a 6th to 10th finish would be acceptable if we aren't the premiers.