Skippos's Final 2014 Phantom Draft

May 19, 2009
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If Freo want a midfielder and you're saying Blakely could be best available at 16, wouldn't it stand to reason that we'd take him at 13? Are De Goey and Lamb that much better than Blakely? The "go home factor" would be taken into consideration also I would've thought, so they'd need to be MUCH better?

And if I were Fremantle I'd be heavily considering him at that selection. But I'm not - my power rankings reflect my own opinions, the phantom draft is more a way in which I think it could pan out. The phantom - especially early on, considers what I think *the club* will do, not what I would. I've got to try and separate my own opinions from it to an extent. While I rate Blakely higher, the consensus seems to be that I'm a bit of an outlier there.

On another note, phantom drafting is a completely different art to 'talent scouting' - hence why nearly anyone can do a phantom draft and have it end up realistic. I certainly don't expect my phantom in hindsight to be very correct as quite simply, I'm just taking stabs in the dark. The profiles and power rankings are definitely what I focus more of my time on; identifying the talent as opposed to predicting it.



I would have to say there is little to no chance the Saints will take R.McKenzie and M.Hammelmann in this draft.. We have no CHB atm and got rid of R.Stanley to give Spencer White a crack at FF, we will surely take a KPB but I love Duggan at 22 it would be amazing if he slides that far!!

In the late 30s/early 40s I think Hammelmann might just be one of the better KPDs out there. While he's known as a forward his work in defence has been pretty solid. Blanketed Corey Gault earlier in the year in an AIS game - a pretty good achievement for a 17 year old. Just now has to work on his pace, really.

That said with Stanley and Maister gone, it's Riewoldt + White/Lee and that's it. I wouldn't be surprised if you looked to add two KPFs to replace the two lost ones and then looked towards another in the coming two drafts to replace Riewoldt. Only adding one would mean you're entering 2014 with one less KPF on the list and far more inexperienced ones than '14 too. I do think it all depends on McKenzie being there at 21 though.

Watson, Aylett, O'Brien, Howlett, Hocking, Melksham, Kavanagh, Heppell, Hams and Myers are all inside mids on our list so I think we're good for that position. Another KPF is a need, but I don't really like the look of Reece Mckenzie and there's no other KPF worth considering at 17 or 20. 17 should definitely be spent on someone with an versatility and an outside game (inside as well is a bonus) such as Garlett, Cockatoo, Ellis, Lamb, Duggan, De Goey or Menadue whilst 20 could be used for best available, Mckenzie or another outside mid.

And aside from Watson and Heppell none are very good. Cases can be made for Hocking, Howlett and Myers as handy best 22 players but they're not world beaters. Melksham is truly terrible at times and Aylett/O'Brien/Hams/Kav really haven't impressed much thus far and some could find themselves fighting for their careers in '15.

It's not a pressing need but I do think it's one. Outside speed probably could be improved too, though I think most sides would like more outside speed irrelevant of how much they already have. De Goey would be a solid balanced inside/outside mid who'd fit well but I'm not sure he'll be there for you.
 
Mar 13, 2008
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You're right they've got nothing on Tom Bell or Nick Graham

Have you seen me say that Carlton does not need to recruit inside midfielders?

You're the one attempting to say you don't need inside midfielders because you have a certain list of players and I just personally think all apart from two of them were rather average choices.
 
Have you seen me say that Carlton does not need to recruit inside midfielders?

You're the one attempting to say you don't need inside midfielders because you have a certain list of players and I just personally think all apart from two of them were rather average choices.
Watson and Heppell are guns. Myers just had his best year as an inside mid with a serious weapon in his left peg, and is a B-Grade inside mid at worst. Howlett and Hocking should be fringe players now. Melksham is damn frustrating but if developed correctly could be an excellent tagger. Still only 22. Aylett, O'Brien, Kavanagh are all unproven, but Aylett in particular have shown signs of becoming players.

What Essendon are really missing is a burst away inside mid ala Griffen or Dangerfield. Whilst he probably won't reach that level Alex Browne may be that man. That being said, I definitely wouldn't object to a De Goey at 17.

However I think a bigger issue will be a 3rd key defender or 2nd key forward depending on where Carlisle is settled.
 
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Watson and Heppell are guns. Myers just had his best year as an inside mid with a serious weapon in his left peg, and is a B-Grade inside mid at worst. Howlett and Hocking should be fringe players now. Melksham is damn frustrating but if developed correctly could be an excellent tagger. Still only 22. Aylett, O'Brien, Kavanagh are all unproven, but Aylett in particular have shown signs of becoming players.

What Essendon are really missing is a burst away inside mid ala Griffen or Dangerfield. Whilst he probably won't reach that level Alex Browne may be that man. That being said, I definitely wouldn't object to a De Goey at 17.

However I think a bigger issue will be a 3rd key defender or 2nd key forward depending on where Carlisle is settled.
Agreed, apart from I think Melksham will become more than a tagger if he can improve on his 2013 form. We really need another tall, but look to be too late to get Durdin, Goddard or Marchback and Mckenzie can play back whilst McDonald is a very average forward. I'm praying that one of them slides to 17 then we pick up an outside mid.
 
Watson and Heppell are guns. Myers just had his best year as an inside mid with a serious weapon in his left peg, and is a B-Grade inside mid at worst. Howlett and Hocking should be fringe players now. Melksham is damn frustrating but if developed correctly could be an excellent tagger. Still only 22. Aylett, O'Brien, Kavanagh are all unproven, but Aylett in particular have shown signs of becoming players.

What Essendon are really missing is a burst away inside mid ala Griffen or Dangerfield. Whilst he probably won't reach that level Alex Browne may be that man. That being said, I definitely wouldn't object to a De Goey at 17.

However I think a bigger issue will be a 3rd key defender or 2nd key forward depending on where Carlisle is settled.
The Western Bulldogs??? :)
 
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What eth-dog is trying to say is we have an abundant of inside mids who are still relatively unexposed to AFL football (22 games from Hams, Kavanagh, Browne & O'Brien).

Despite not being rated, we have the talent and players on the list, they need to take that next step. We don't want to end up with an unbalanced list.


We don't partualrly have that burst midfielder in a similar vein to Griffen or Dangerfield. Browne is more a half back flanker who could evolve into a midfielder. We brought in Adam Cooney for this exact reason, to upgrade on Howlett who was playing a similar role to a lesser, inconsistent level.


We will more than likely go insie/outside midfielder + a KPP/utility with picks 17 & 20. Taking two of Jordan De Goey, Connor Blakely, Connor Menadue, Tyler KEitel, Tom Lamb.
 
Sep 27, 2004
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Yeah if I were picking for Carlton I'd be picking Duggan but this isn't as much about who I think they *should* pick but more who I think is likely to be picked at that selection. I could see Carlton going the way of Ellis if he was there - not that I'd advise it.
Hard to see Duggan and Ellis sliding, but I think we'd take the former if he's anything like Docherty on and off the field. You say Cotchin isn't damaging, but he is a jet who didn't the fluke the AFLCA Award and an AA season. Would take a poor man's version. The younger Crouch was a "slider".

Suspect we will go for the 80% talent, 100% commitment type HARKER referred to on our board. A Robinson with his head on straight. A third rounder named Sloane hasn't screwed up after the Crows overlooked him twice. Inexact science with Dumont and Temay rated for their character and ability.

Happy to snap up Ellis if he has upside and talent like Yarran who was pegged as a late first round pick and considered inconsistent.
 
May 19, 2009
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Hard to see Duggan and Ellis sliding, but I think we'd take the former if he's anything like Docherty on and off the field. You say Cotchin isn't damaging, but he is a jet who didn't the fluke the AFLCA Award and an AA season. Would take a poor man's version. The younger Crouch was a "slider".

Suspect we will go for the 80% talent, 100% commitment type HARKER referred to on our board. A Robinson with his head on straight. A third rounder named Sloane hasn't screwed up after the Crows overlooked him twice. Inexact science with Dumont and Temay rated for their character and ability.

Happy to snap up Ellis if he has upside and talent like Yarran who was pegged as a late first round pick and considered inconsistent.

I rate Cotchin - I do. He's classy and rarely makes mistakes. I just think he's at times a very safe user of the ball - lots of chips and high percentage options - (better) but in a similar vein to Jackson MacRae in that regard. Duggan at times can do that - though he's a more gifted kick of the ball so you'd hope he doesn't. Most player comparisons these days are 'poor mans *player x*' really as it's a way of recognising that players are rarely sure bets so projecting them as an A grader is tough - Duggan could still conceivably get to the 'a grade' level.

Enough of that segue though - I do see what you're saying. I reckon at the end of the day the end game will be a bit different - my next update this week will have a different player going there as things up top pan out a little differently.
 

Draft Buster

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Skip, thought you may like this info... surely you could fit Walsh & Hardesty in your Phantom Draft?

18 WA players attended the State Draft Combine held at Revolution Sports in Shenton Park on October 12.
  • Shane Yarran (Subiaco, cousin of Carlton's Chris) won the 20m sprint in 2.82sec. - the second-fastest time this year and equal fifth quickest in draft testing history. Second was Brad Walsh (Peel Thunder, WA under-18 captain) in 2.97sec.
  • Ryan Lim (Midfielder from Claremont) won the agility test in 7.77sec, 0.01sec off Stephen Hill's record. Brad Walsh ran 7.88sec.
  • Cameron Loersch (South Fremantle) finished top in the standing vertical jump with 72cm
  • Adam Creeper (Subiaco) highest in the running vertical jump with 86cm.
  • Jared Hardisty (Claremont) won the beep test with 15.4. Second was Ryan Lim with 14.7, and third Brad Walsh.
 

Hellgood

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Walsh had a really disappointing year, just didn't have the impact expected of him after impressing as an under-ager. I don't know if there were reasons for that (injury?), but clubs won't like that and probably leaves him with being taken in the rookie draft as a best case scenario.

Can't see it happening for Hardisty either. Appearances are certainly deceptive in the case of his fitness and athleticism, but he just seems a long way from the 'type' that AFL clubs are looking for. Not particularly convinced his skills are to the standard required. Think he'll be a guy who in years to come will generate a fair bit of interest from fans for his performances at WAFL level, but one the recruiters for whatever reason avoid (ie. Nelson, Black, Bristow etc).
 
Is Duggan slipping to Pick 22 realistic?

Honestly though, if we snagged Petracca, McKenzie and Duggan I wouldn't give two s##ts who we took at #41, I'd be doing my happy dance by then.
 
May 19, 2009
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Skippos, is there an AFL player you would compare Corey Ellis to? I notice he's one of the few first rounders without a comparison and the descriptions I've read don't sound like any particular player. Is Didak the closest you could think of?

Ellis is someone I'm finding it really difficult to think of a good comparison for. The ones I've read just don't do it for me. When Knightmare says a 'less productive and freakishly talented' version of Didak - that'd be something I agree with. But I also think that a less productive and freakish version is probably a completely different player. There's a little bit of Sidebottom in him but not much and a little bit of Mayes too. The first thing that came to my head was how I'd imagine Luke Breust to play if he were a midfielder. He's a tough one.

Skip, thought you may like this info... surely you could fit Walsh & Hardesty in your Phantom Draft?

18 WA players attended the State Draft Combine held at Revolution Sports in Shenton Park on October 12.
  • Shane Yarran (Subiaco, cousin of Carlton's Chris) won the 20m sprint in 2.82sec. - the second-fastest time this year and equal fifth quickest in draft testing history. Second was Brad Walsh (Peel Thunder, WA under-18 captain) in 2.97sec.
  • Ryan Lim (Midfielder from Claremont) won the agility test in 7.77sec, 0.01sec off Stephen Hill's record. Brad Walsh ran 7.88sec.
  • Cameron Loersch (South Fremantle) finished top in the standing vertical jump with 72cm
  • Adam Creeper (Subiaco) highest in the running vertical jump with 86cm.
  • Jared Hardisty (Claremont) won the beep test with 15.4. Second was Ryan Lim with 14.7, and third Brad Walsh.

Appreciate the information. I'd heard about the sprint results. I believe the track there was faster - all depends on how soft/how much give was in the surface they ran on and it does vary a little between venues. Walsh isn't as slow as some make out but he's still not super quick. He and Lim also very much surprised me with the agility test - I do think something might have effected the results there.

I like Walsh - had him as my tip for the Larke medal this year expecting a really prolific tournament. He just didn't deliver. There are very few small inside mids nowadays, those that are 178-183 odd normally have another string to their bow. Those that don't are normally natural and prolific - something Walsh just wasn't. In general his championships really disappointed me as I had high hopes. That said - I liked that he played senior footy.

In all honesty I still rate him as a 30-60 prospect, I just can no longer justify holding that rating - it's more gut than anything else. I think he might be rookied too but I just can't see a club taking him high in the ND - late rounds is more about guessing than much else. Hardisty in the same boat; deserves to be drafted but at 178cm just doesn't have enough to his game to go before the rookie.

Walsh had a really disappointing year, just didn't have the impact expected of him after impressing as an under-ager. I don't know if there were reasons for that (injury?), but clubs won't like that and probably leaves him with being taken in the rookie draft as a best case scenario.

Can't see it happening for Hardisty either. Appearances are certainly deceptive in the case of his fitness and athleticism, but he just seems a long way from the 'type' that AFL clubs are looking for. Not particularly convinced his skills are to the standard required. Think he'll be a guy who in years to come will generate a fair bit of interest from fans for his performances at WAFL level, but one the recruiters for whatever reason avoid (ie. Nelson, Black, Bristow etc).

Nice post - I agree with most of that.

Is Duggan slipping to Pick 22 realistic?

Honestly though, if we snagged Petracca, McKenzie and Duggan I wouldn't give two s##ts who we took at #41, I'd be doing my happy dance by then.

Do I think it'll happen? Nope. Is it possible? Yep. It just so happened that the way this phantom panned out saw someone selected ahead of Duggan 21 times, I was surprised it happened but it did. In my next update he goes 19 and you get Garlett instead. I'd say on the day Duggan might just go 10-20, but there's a small chance he slips, just like he did here. All it'd take is one pick changing ahead and the next 20 picks could all shuffle though - and with very little information on who's after who being 'leaked' so far, it's tough to accurately predict/model the outcome.
 

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Thanks for the comments Skip.
Walsh actually had a great year in Europe when captaining the AIS and played very well against Collingwood’s strong second side at the MCG. He also won W.A’s MVP for the 18’s carnival, runner up in the Ben Mitchell award and managed to play some league games for Peel alongside many Freo Docker players. It has been a very long year for the AIS boys and even guys like Goddard & Lamb had quiet carnivals but we all know they are very good players.
The biggest problem for the W.A boys was that the overall team was not strong and the coaching was ordinary to say the least, many of the boys that helped win the 16’s state carnival were either injured or not selected, guys like Deluca, Miller – Lewis, Cody Grace and others were all brilliant in the 16’s however injured for the 18’s carnival (So sad to see Rob Wiley not coaching the boys this year as he was such a brilliant coach).
Team selection throughout the carnival was suspect and crucified many players; this was evident in the last game of the carnival when they finally played Walsh in the middle for the full game and had Pickett and Garlett running off half back and let Clem Smith run riot, all of a sudden they looked great and beat Vic Country who were a very good side, if they had kept the structures right from the beginning and selected a few extra hardened players then you would be seeing many more boys from W.A being drafted.
If guy’s like Walsh and Lim slipped and get picked up in the rookie draft then all I can say is the club who selects them have got a real bargain
 

Yabadoo22

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What's the earliest pick you can see tom lamb going at? Is there any chance of his going top 10? Any word on which clubs are interested in him?
 
Thanks for the comments Skip.
Walsh actually had a great year in Europe when captaining the AIS and played very well against Collingwood’s strong second side at the MCG. He also won W.A’s MVP for the 18’s carnival, runner up in the Ben Mitchell award and managed to play some league games for Peel alongside many Freo Docker players. It has been a very long year for the AIS boys and even guys like Goddard & Lamb had quiet carnivals but we all know they are very good players.
The biggest problem for the W.A boys was that the overall team was not strong and the coaching was ordinary to say the least, many of the boys that helped win the 16’s state carnival were either injured or not selected, guys like Deluca, Miller – Lewis, Cody Grace and others were all brilliant in the 16’s however injured for the 18’s carnival (So sad to see Rob Wiley not coaching the boys this year as he was such a brilliant coach).
Team selection throughout the carnival was suspect and crucified many players; this was evident in the last game of the carnival when they finally played Walsh in the middle for the full game and had Pickett and Garlett running off half back and let Clem Smith run riot, all of a sudden they looked great and beat Vic Country who were a very good side, if they had kept the structures right from the beginning and selected a few extra hardened players then you would be seeing many more boys from W.A being drafted.
If guy’s like Walsh and Lim slipped and get picked up in the rookie draft then all I can say is the club who selects them have got a real bargain


Who was the coach?
 
May 19, 2009
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What's the earliest pick you can see tom lamb going at? Is there any chance of his going top 10? Any word on which clubs are interested in him?

Very volatile range here. Very very small chance he goes @ 5 to the Pies while GWS/GC at 6-8 are all small chances. Geelong at 10 another very small chance. After that Fremantle are probably the first real 'maybes' at 13 and while I don't think he'll go there - it's a chance. I'd probably expect him to go 15-22. I doubt Geelong would take him to be honest; very small chance at best - I suspect they're going to look to add some real pace and my mail was that they moved up to give them a chance at Pickett ahead of WCE who were zero chance to let him slip if he made it there.
 
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Skippos can you expand on Lamb's personality issues? Some reckon he has none, others like Dannnnnnnnnn think he has issues. Can anyone expand? I've heard he doesn't defend but neither does Pickett.

It's a strange one. I've heard plenty to indicate that he's just a bit of an average bloke - was apparently expelled from school and in general considered an unsavoury kind of character. But then again, plenty of teenagers are and grow out of it. A regimented and disciplined AFL environment could go some way towards developing and rounding his character.

As far as on field attitude - he's prone to brain fades and some real poor attitude but again, he could mellow out. It's not ideal. He's prone to laziness defensively which is a bit strange considering his endurance; if he's worked so hard to be one of the fittest blokes out, I'm surprised he's not working hard on the field. It's a mental game with Tom.

Apparently the Tigers want Weller>Duggan>Ellis.
Will Weller make it to 12?

Yeah I'm hearing the rumours that they're looking for midfielders too - it's just what they'll do if a high quality tall slides is the question - do they pick best available or still look towards needs?

I think there's a reasonable to strong chance Weller is there at 12. He shouldn't, though. So many of these taller mids are being projected to bolt when there's someone like Weller who isn't despite having a far more rounded outside game, a better inside game than people think and the best kick in the first round as well as borderline elite speed.

Would be very happy with Petracca,McKenzie & Duggan! Don't know much about Hammelmann tbh.

Personally am hoping Touk Miller lasts to pick 41, would be a steal!

My recent update which I'll edit into the thread this week has Garlett going at 22 in place of Duggan. Jaden McGrath at 41 instead of Hammelmann. Touk Miller goes at 40 there, unfortunately! Nice player though.


Strong attempt at a phantom Skippos! Good job well done.

I also like that you've attempted some power rankings and showing the guys you like rather than just purely guessing who gets drafted.

Thanks for the kind words, they really mean a lot, especially coming from someone like you :)
 
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