Skippos's 2015 Draft Resource

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I'm back again this year - except six weeks earlier! You can find last year's effort here. As always, happy to answer/explain/justify any questions/queries/feedback/statements about anything draft related. Hopefully I can provide another new perspective on how things are shaping up. This is my seventh year following the draft and the third year I've followed it very heavily. I'm based in SA but try to expose myself to the Victorian and WA prospects a little each year.

I don't particularly like calling it a phantom as these threads have become so much more than phantom drafts - personally, the phantom/mock drafting is a chore that I find a little pointless; it's not like anyone on here has any inside information so we're likely to be worse than EQ/Cal Twomey et al at projecting how the cards fall. However, Last year my phantom draft statistically considered the most accurate of all the amateur scouts - with only EQ and Cal Twomey recording a better hit rate. That said, trust them over me if you're looking for mail on who your club will pick! My strengths lie with identifying the talent, not projecting where they will go!

At the moment it's just power rankings. I'll edit in a top 20 mock later this week and start gradually doing profiles over the next 2-3 months. Last year I rewrote each profile three times and I'd like to avoid that this year!

I'm currently working on developing a draft website which I hope to launch in the near future. It's not going to be like BFGN/Mad Monday or any of the facebook pages/draft columns you've seen, instead I intend to model it on the American NBA style draft websites - very content heavy but concise and user friendly with videos and images. Not as many articles and reports but more individual scouting pages and numerical ratings for different skills (which I intend to incorporate into this thread!) - which I think the general public find much easier to digest than a paragraph explaining strengths and weaknesses. If this interests you shoot me a message as I'm keen to involve a few interested parties in the development!

Index:

Post 1 - Power Rankings
Post 2 - Mock Draft
Post 3 - A+ Tier Profiles (Work in progress)
Post 4 - A Tier Profiles (Work in progress)
Post 5 - B Tier Profiles (Work in progress)
Post 6 - C Tier Profiles (Work in progress)
Post 7 - D Tier Profiles (Work in progress)
Post 8 - E Tier Profiles (Work in progress)
Post 9 - F Tier Profiles (Work in progress)
Post 10 - Rookie/Fringe Tier Profiles (Work in progress)
Post 11 - Miscellaneous

Overview of the Draft:

Contrary to other draft followers, I think this is an excellent draft. If you're looking for a franchise forward perhaps it's a little weak, but in every other regard I think it's excellent. It's Vic Country's best crop in a long time and I'm particularly bullish about SA's crop. Last year I wasn't but this year I think it's their best in a long time too (as you'll see from the power rankings. It's loaded with them). The strength of the crop very much rests on whether my assessment of the South Australian talent is correct or not. If I've overrated them, then it reverts back to an average crop. If you're looking for key defenders, small forwards or any type of midfielder - this crop is stacked with them. If you possess a top 20 pick, you're very likely to get a great piece to work around. I think the top 20 are relatively even, with the 21-30 range being more like the late first round types of previous years. In terms of depth - it does drop off a little after 35-40, but it's still relatively deep and there will definitely be some gems to be found.


Power Rankings:

1. Jacob Weitering - VC (195.0 cm, 90.0 kg - Key Defender)
2. Darcy Parish - VC (181.0 cm, 73.0 kg - Outside Leaning Midfielder)

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3. Callum Mills - NSW (188.0 cm, 78.0 kg - Inside Leaning Midfielder - Sydney Academy)
4. Luke Partington - SA (182.0 cm, 75.0 kg - Outside Leaning Midfielder)
5. Josh Dunkley - VC (189.0 cm, 85.0 kg - Inside Midfielder - Sydney F/S)
6. Rhys Mathieson - VC (185.0 cm, 79.0 kg - Inside Midfielder)
7. Ryan Clarke - VM (186.0 cm, 84.0 kg - Outside Leaning Midfielder)
8. Ben Keays - QLD (183.0 cm, 78.0 kg - Balanced Midfielder/Small Forward - Brisbane Academy)
9. Aaron Francis - SA (192.0 cm, 89.0 kg - Key Defender/Utility)
10. Darcy Tucker - VC (184.0 cm, 78.0 kg - Small Defender/Outside Midfielder)
11. Jacob Hopper - NSW (186.0 cm, 82.0 kg - Inside Midfielder - GWS Academy)
12. Ryan Burton - SA (191.0 cm, 83.0 kg - General Forward)

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13. Joshua Schache - VC (199.0 cm, 96.0 kg - Key Forward)
14. Riley Bonner - SA (191.0 cm, 79.0 kg - General Utility)
15. Will Combe - SA (182.0 cm, 78.0 kg - Inside Leaning Midfielder)
16. Charles Curnow - VC (191.0 cm, 95.0 kg - General Utility)
17. Greg Clark - WA (193.0 cm, 82.0 kg - Balanced Midfielder)
18. Nick O'Kearney - VM (181.0 cm, 71.0 kg - Balanced Midfielder)
19. Matthew Nunn - SA (181.0 cm, 73.0 kg - Outside Midfielder
20. Wayne Milera - SA (184.0 cm, 74.0 kg - Small Forward/Outside Midfielder)
21. Sam Skinner - VC (197.0 cm, 96.0 kg - Key Utility)
22. Harley Balic - VM (186.0 cm, 80.0 kg - Small Forward/Outside Midfielder)
23. Kade Stewart - WA (180.0 cm, 70.0 kg - Inside Midfielder)
24. Brendan Dew - SA (181.0 cm, 72.0 kg - Balanced Mid/Small Forward)
25. Stephen Tahana - SA (183.0 cm, 79.0 kg - Small Defender)
26. Callum Ah Chee - WA (182.0 cm, 71.0 kg - Small Forward)
27. Tony Olango - NT (200.0 cm, weight unknown - Ruckman)

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28. Maris Olekalns - SA (182.0 cm, 72.0 kg - Outside Leaning Midfielder/Small Forward)
29. Matthew Kennedy - NSW (187.0 cm, 84.0 kg - Inside Leaning Midfielder - GWS Academy)
30. Kieran Collins - VC (193.0 cm, 94.0 kg - Key Defender)
31. Bailey Rogers - WA (184.0 cm, 80.0 kg - Inside Leaning Midfielder)
32. Harry McKay - VC (200.0 cm, 85.0 kg - Key Forward/Ruck)
33. Tom Cole - VC (185.0 cm, 76.0 kg - Small Defender/Balanced Midfielder)
34. Kyle Presbury - SA (182.0 cm, 73.0 kg - Balanced Midfielder)
35. Harrison Cross - SA (184.0 cm, 77.0 kg - Small Defender/Outside Leaning Midfielder)
36. Jordan Dawson - SA (187.5 cm, 80.0 kg - General Forward)
37. Gach Nyuon - VC (198.0 cm, 81.0 kg - Ruckman)
38. Bailey Rice - VC (184.0 cm, 81.0 kg - Inside Midfielder/Half Back - StK/Carl F/S)
39. Jade Gresham - VM (177.0 cm, 74.0 kg - Balanced Midfielder)
40. Tom Bennett - WA (184.0 cm, 77.0 kg - Outside Midfeilder)
41. Kyle Broadwood - SA (195.0 cm, 84.0 kg - Key Defender)
42. Mabior Chol - QLD (198.0 cm, 78.3 kg - Key Forward - Brisbane Academy)
43. Nate Dennis - QLD (201.0 cm, 87.5 kg - Ruck/Key Utility - Brisbane Academy)
44. James Parsons - VM (189.0 cm, 79.0 kg - General Defender/Midfielder)
45. Sam Weideman - VM (196.0 cm, 91.0 kg - Key Forward)

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46. Mark Quinn - SA (180.0 cm, 72.0 kg - Inside Leaning Mid/Small Forward)
47. Keiran Agius - SA (189.0 cm, 84.0 kg - General Utility)
48. Matthew Allen - SA (193.0 cm, 97.0 kg - Key Forward/Inside Midfielder)
49. Brayden Fiorini - VM (186.0 cm, 76.0 kg - Outside Midfielder)
50. Bruno Laguda - VM (185.0 cm, 71.0 kg - Small Defender
51. Jake Sushames - TAS (185.0 cm, 65.0 kg - Outside Midfielder/Small Forward)
52. Chad Daniels - WA (182.0 cm, 83.0 kg - Small Forward/Midfielder)
53. Jack Watson - WA (191.0 cm, 81.0 kg - Key Defender)
54. Cameron Hewett - SA (189.0 cm, 76.0 kg - Inside Leaning Midfielder/General Forward)
55. Tim Sullivan - SA (198.0 cm, 90.0 kg - Ruckman)
56. Mitch Antonio - WA (187.0 cm, 75.0 kg - Small Forward/Outside Midfielder)
57. Eric Hipwood - QLD (197.0 cm, 82.0 kg - Key Position Utility - Brisbane Academy))
58. Karl Brown - VM (192.0 cm, 90.0 kg - Key Forward
59. Will Snelling - SA (175.0 cm, 76.0 kg - Inside Midfielder)
60. Dylan Atkins - VM (199.0 cm, 88.0 kg - Key Utility)
61. Dylan McDonald - NSW (183.0 cm, 70.0 kg - Outside Midfielder - GWS Academy)
62. Corey Wagner - QLD (180.0 cm, 71.0 kg - Half Back/Outside Midfielder - Brisbane Academy)
63. Isaya McKenzie - SA (181.0 cm, 72.0 kg - Small Forward/Balanced Midfielder)
64. Jack Agostino - SA (180.0 cm, 72.0 kg - Small Defender)
65. Jordan Snadden - WA (190.0 cm, 79.0 kg - General Utility)
66. Hugh Haysman - SA (177.0 cm, 72.0 kg - Outside Midfielder)

Others - Grouped by state, not ability:

Ryan Hearn - VC (197.0 cm, 90.0 kg - Key Utility)
Jake Lovett - VC (182.0 cm, 81.0 kg - Inside Midfielder - Melb F/S)
William Sexton - VC (175.0 cm, 76.0 kg - Small Utility)
Lachie Tardrew - VC (182.0 cm, 70.0 kg - Inside Leaning Midfielder)
Josh Minogue - VC (189.0 cm, 80.0 kg - General Forward)
Aidyn Johnson - VC (184.0 cm, 75.0 cm - Balanced Midfielder)
Kyle Galloway - VC (206.0 cm, 104.0 kg - Ruckman)
Yestin Eades - VC (183.0 cm, 80.0 kg - Small Utility)

Luke Sheppard - WA (189.0 cm, 82.0 kg - Small Defender)
Blair Della Franca - WA (198.0 cm, 90.0 kg - Ruckman/Key Forward)
Jesse Micro - WA (190.0 cm, 90.0 kg - Key Utility)
Marshall Jones - WA (188.0 cm, 84.0 kg - General Forward)

Thomas Cameron - VM (187.0 cm, 70.0 kg - Small Defender)
Bryce Batty - VM (183.0 cm, 80.0 kg - Inside Midfielder)
Nick Pavlou - VM (174.0 cm, 75.0 kg - Small Forward)
Tom Wallis - VM (182.0 cm, 74.0 kg- Outside Midfielder)
Blake Hardwick - VM (181.0 cm, 78.0 kg - Small Forward)
Hisham Kerbatieh - VM (177.0 cm, 77.0 kg - Small Forward)
Dan Houston - VM (187.0 cm, 83.0 kg - General Forward)
Matthew Stillman - VM (181.0 cm, 78.0 kg - Outside Midfielder/Small Defender)
Ben Crocker - VM (185.0 cm, 81.0 kg - Balanced Utility)
Jordan Matera - VM (182.0 cm, 82.0 kg - Small Forward - WCE F/S)
Theo Thompson - VM (186.0 cm, 82.0 kg - Inside Midfielder)

Luke Surman - SA (195.0 cm, 94.0 kg - Key Utility)
Mason Redman - SA (187.0 cm, 76.0 kg - Balanced Midfielder)
Harrison Westhoff - SA (197.0 cm, 85.0 kg - Key Defender)
Campbell Wildman - SA (189.0 cm, 79.0 kg - Small Defender/Midfielder)
Andre Parella - SA (203.0 cm, 104.0 kg - Ruckman)

Jock Cornell - NSW (186.0 cm, 81.0 kg - Small Forward/Outside Midfielder - GWS Academy)

Nick Dodge - TAS (182.0 cm, 80.0 kg - General Forward)
Jordan Hayden - TAS (185.0 cm, 79.0 kg - Outside Midfielder)
Logan Reynolds - TAS (180.0 cm, 67.2 kg - Small Defender)
Skippos great post mate, I look forward to reading your future threads. Like you I think this years draft has some real quality and evenness from 1-30. I believe this draft is the year of the utility and think players 190+ that can play both ends of the ground will be favoured by clubs. From what I've seen (SA only) Francis is the stand out and could go top 5, he has exception speed and his contested marking is elite. Current form for West Adelaide's league side is solid and he is holding his own against men in a key position role. Curnow has the speed, size and athletic ability but I've seen no footage of him. Bonner I like and is all class, he has an elite left leg and his right is better than most. He runs and carries the ball and sets the play up. Can play HB, HF and MID. Skinner is a player from what Ive seen, tall and quick and could possibly play as a key back? Agius is the one im uncertain on, he seems lethargic and un interested most times but as we know can turn the switch on when ready. I'd like to see him play up forward as that's where he played his best footy as a junior.

Thoughts?
 

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Skippos great post mate, I look forward to reading your future threads. Like you I think this years draft has some real quality and evenness from 1-30. I believe this draft is the year of the utility and think players 190+ that can play both ends of the ground will be favoured by clubs. From what I've seen (SA only) Francis is the stand out and could go top 5, he has exception speed and his contested marking is elite. Current form for West Adelaide's league side is solid and he is holding his own against men in a key position role. Curnow has the speed, size and athletic ability but I've seen no footage of him. Bonner I like and is all class, he has an elite left leg and his right is better than most. He runs and carries the ball and sets the play up. Can play HB, HF and MID. Skinner is a player from what Ive seen, tall and quick and could possibly play as a key back? Agius is the one im uncertain on, he seems lethargic and un interested most times but as we know can turn the switch on when ready. I'd like to see him play up forward as that's where he played his best footy as a junior.

Thoughts?

Honestly mate I think you're spot on with everything here. I've seen enough of Curnow to be intrigued but not sold. I expect we will gain some clarity as his performance sample size increases.
 
Just a few questions.

1. Are you going to constantly adjust your mock in versions 1, 2, 3, 4... or update this thread?
2. Is your mock draft going to attempt to match how the real draft will end up or how you personally rank the players?
EDIT: I just checked your 2014 version and reading your OP it seems you aim to mimic the real draft.

It is always good reading some mock drafts and I look forward to your twitter updates. I should be at the WA games, so if you need me to look at anyone, drop me a message and I will attempt to take notes on them.
 
Just a few questions.

1. Are you going to constantly adjust your mock in versions 1, 2, 3, 4... or update this thread?
2. Is your mock draft going to attempt to match how the real draft will end up or how you personally rank the players?
EDIT: I just checked your 2014 version and reading your OP it seems you aim to mimic the real draft.

It is always good reading some mock drafts and I look forward to your twitter updates. I should be at the WA games, so if you need me to look at anyone, drop me a message and I will attempt to take notes on them.

This thread will be the hub. It's far neater and less egotistical. Nobody's draft opinions are worth 7 threads in a year.

The mock draft early on will be a balance of what I think might happen combined with who I think will go high. Towards the draft it narrows in on being a projection. My own personal rankings will be the power rankings in the first post. They're the most important part to me - as that's what you get judged on - hence post one.

Thanks for the kind comments. I might just take you up on that as I'm far less exposed to the WA lads this year compared to previous years as I haven't been able to get there and watch them.
 
There's a clear anti academy agenda creeping into popular sentiment and I just feel that people are tending to overrate academy prospects as it suits their anti-academy agenda.

Excellent point, I have been feeling this way as well. Although I am not in as good a position to judge this as yourself and others, you can absolutely sense this sentiment coming through in the media and on bigfooty.
 
198/78 so not as bad - these Sudanese kids often are stringbeans at that age and bulk up through the 20s. Mabior is a Sudanese KPF/Ruck with some real athleticism and a surprisingly high footy IQ given his background in the game. He's very draft able for mine - has that extra height on the Daw types but also better leading patterns. 198cm is the perfect height for modern day key forwards too - they're tall enough to often be a relief ruck if needed and physically dominant against most comers and not too tall that their mobility suffers as a result. It also leaves the option of being converted to a KPD with the 6'6 key defenders the 'in' thing at the moment - especially ones with athleticism. If Chol doesn't make the grade as a forward he's a good shot of making it as a back; he's certainly got everything Aliir Aliir has (who I think is going to make the grade) and more - height/skills the big one. I'm very bullish about Mabior - in fact i should probably have him higher.
Great to see more Sudanese boys playing football at the elite junior levels.

There's a a lad i've seen running around in north adelaide's u18's side he's around the 196cm mark, very athletic and has exceptional skills on both sides of the body, his name's is Chol Anyang only saw him once on the north team sheet which was in round one but i havn't seen much of him, would be handy this weekend against the likes of gameu, broadwood, hoare and baqeri as north do not have many talls.

Have you heard or seen much of him?
 
Interesting to see how you rate Ah chee.

Very interested to hear your write up on him. Everywhere I have seen him written up as a top 15 pick, and some talk that west coast should look closely at him. Without ruining your write ups Skippos, can you shed some light on your opinion of him? is it just that you dont see him translating into a midfielder full time at afl level, or just rate others much higher?

Really enjoyed your work last year, so very much looking forward to reading this years!
 

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Great work skippos ...matthew Flynn nsw/act could be the best pure ruckman this year

You're not the first to tell me that. I'll be watching him closely.

@everyone else, I'll get back to you over the weekend and update the mock. Computer battery died so need to get a new one this weekend to access all my notes and all that.
 
When will the phantom be up by Skippos?

It's tonight & tomorrow, tonight, Skippos. ;)

C'mon, I told the Mrs to go to bed.

Is tonight or tomorrow like Neil Balme's 2 weeks

C'mon mate the suspense is killing me...like having no presents under the Xmas tree

Okay okay I'm a fixer, I fix things.

Phantom Draft

I've done the first round with very brief profiles and why I think they'll go there as well as a second round without details just to appease the masses. I don't expect to update it until post-champs, with my current focus on nailing down specific and detailed individual profiles as well as ensuring my power rankings are spot on. Happy to answer any questions in here about comparisons/styles/mocks etc. though!
 
Great to see more Sudanese boys playing football at the elite junior levels.

There's a a lad i've seen running around in north adelaide's u18's side he's around the 196cm mark, very athletic and has exceptional skills on both sides of the body, his name's is Chol Anyang only saw him once on the north team sheet which was in round one but i havn't seen much of him, would be handy this weekend against the likes of gameu, broadwood, hoare and baqeri as north do not have many talls.

Have you heard or seen much of him?

Yeah I've seen him once. You're not the first new poster to mention him on here which is a little strange for a kid who hasn't played much junior footy or garnered any attention. There's a lot to like but I'm unsure of his personal or school situation which may limit his commitment to football. At this stage he's too far gone to be considered barring an incredible return to organised football and form streak.
 
Hey mate, seen much of Wallis? I have a feeling he's a rookie prospect, same with Harvey Daniher.

No I haven't on both counts. I haven't heard much to indicate either are ND prospects so I'd be approaching them as fringe rookie types for now who require further observation. I'd probably put them in a similar basket to Long, that said - I've not seen either so I'm going purely on the little I've heard about Wallis.
 
Interesting to see how you rate Ah chee.

Very interested to hear your write up on him. Everywhere I have seen him written up as a top 15 pick, and some talk that west coast should look closely at him. Without ruining your write ups Skippos, can you shed some light on your opinion of him? is it just that you dont see him translating into a midfielder full time at afl level, or just rate others much higher?

Really enjoyed your work last year, so very much looking forward to reading this years!

Honestly, and I'm going to get the 'PC police' onto me for saying this - but part of my concern is his Indigenous heritage.

It's just a case of the attrition rate being far too high - much too high to ignore, and by extension, indigenous players proving too risky for me to be game to select in the first round. With picks that are less valuable and more designed at taking punts on potential - sure. But not with picks that are designed to build a side. Josh Simpson is a classic example - Fremantle essentially lost a first round pick and the resources invested in Simpson and his wellbeing for nothing.

That said, from all reports Ah Chee is a grounded and fine gentleman so I look forward to more examples of him being no different to a normal player, along with Milera and Agius who are both exceptional talents. Last year I approached Garlett and Pickett with the same cynicism but through following them all year I realised that there wasn't the same level of risk with them. Still a risk though, it's just culture shock.

If this offends anyone, I apologise - I'm aware it's pigeon holing and lumping in the good with the bad, but unfortunately the attrition rate is something you just can't ignore, and I expect clubs won't 'ignore' it either for fear of being racist - a club won't select a player that comes with more risk over a similar level player who doesn't. With these players psych profiles and home visits are integral and given I'm not privy to that, I begin the year cynical and as I learn more, my opinion progresses - so far I've seen enough of Milera to be confident that he'll be one that gets the best out of himself.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

With regards to Ah Chee as a player - like Pickett last year, I'm not sold. Rioli's defensive pressure is next level and rare for a player of his type. Pickett last year had very little defensive running and forward pressure and I haven't seen that high level pressure in Ah Chee yet, likewise I haven't seen any indication of Ah Chee being a midfielder. To me he's a stay at home forward and will remain that way his whole career. Given that, the need to work both ways is imperative for him. Likewise with the game moving towards a more closed and flooded playing arena I favour forwards who can win their own ball instead of flanking and being fed it - like Ah Chee does. I think he'll probably make the grade but for now I'm just not sold that he's the complete product - and aside from one academy game - his production doesn't seem to indicate that either. I also rate this crop much higher than most by virtue of my love for this south australian crop. I suspect my assessment on Ah Chee isn't far off from others, it's just that I rate those around him as better prospects than others; it's all a bit relative. As, inevitably, I cool on some of these South Australians, I expect him to rise up to 13-20.
 
On an individual basis think you are doing Ah Chee an enormous disservice. You seriously think a 15 year old capable of giving an interview like this on his background and family history is a risk of being a dickhead? In terms of personality, he's streets ahead of his contemporaries regardless of whether their skin is black or white. He also has an older brother who knows the AFL system well and is very highly regarded for his level headed personality at Port. He's been in 'the system' all the way through and knows what will be expected of him from next year onwards.



I would go as far as to say that I'm more convinced of his qualities of a person than as a footballer, and that says something given his talent. I have not been able to catch him in any games this year, but my impressions from last year were that I thought he suffers a little bit for being a bit too versatile. I felt he needed a lot of space to gain the advantage over his opponent when playing as a key forward which is obviously a luxury at the professional level and as a midfielder he wasn't quite there yet in terms of having a consistent impact. Those impressions were made with him being an underager, so reading too much may be a bit harsh perhaps.

To go back to your original point about the risk of aboriginal recruits, I think whilst it should be acknowledged that there has been some bad cases in the past, but to automatically presume guilt is a dangerous attitude to take when you look at how impressive and considerate a guy like Ah Chee comes off in that interview. Dayle Garlett has a lot to answer for.
 

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