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- #101
Normally helps to read the explanation
'Gresham is on the back flank purely cause they'll stick some midfielder there so while it probably won't be him, it'll be someone - to pack in that extra mid.'
Skippos's 2015 Draft Resource
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Normally helps to read the explanation
'Gresham is on the back flank purely cause they'll stick some midfielder there so while it probably won't be him, it'll be someone - to pack in that extra mid.'
Barrels
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I read it Skip, but I just don't reckon he'd be the guy to put there; too small.Normally helps to read the explanation
'Gresham is on the back flank purely cause they'll stick some midfielder there so while it probably won't be him, it'll be someone - to pack in that extra mid.'
Nitpicking though, and meaningless I guess... Like Tucker in the back pocket.
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- #103
If its not too late!
Have a look at how Allen (39) goes in the forward line as it'll be a real test for him. Dawson (35) another fwd who I think is worth a look. Bonner (29) off half back and Partington (12) and Dew (5) the ones I'm very curious to see how they go!
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- #104
Wouldn't be an all Australian team without midfielders on flanks, flankers in pockets and attacking half backs in a back pocket!
I'll give you an update later today. Bonner and Partington are the two impressive ones from that list. I really like the look of Bonner of the HBF.
Chaisa
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If you expect Dawson to be AA, why is he not in your power rankings?
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- #107
#19.
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When do you plan to update your Phantom next Skip after the end of these few championship games?
Really hope the dogs go for one of the talented mids with our first pick and then go and get one of Dylan Smith or Harrison McKay with our second.
Really hope the dogs go for one of the talented mids with our first pick and then go and get one of Dylan Smith or Harrison McKay with our second.
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- #109
After round two. It's often very rash to make assessments based on one game.
I strongly disagree. The value in KPFs is found in round one. Round two and beyond and they're more often than not busts. Only exception is if you rate them a genuine round one prospect and they're still on the board.
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I don't think the KPF's that would be available around our pick are as good as the midfielders at the moment or fit into our side. I rate Skinner, Smith and McKay as KPFs that would fit into what we want to build and think one will be at our second.
I can see what you are saying about how the best KPF's are found in the first round but right now we need a second tall that can keep their defender accountable, kick a goal or two a game and preferably be capable of rucking.
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- Thread starter
- #111
I agree. And you find those in the first round. The second round types you'd be having a 20-40% chance of making the grade. Blokes like Keesten and McBean - both of whom I rated very highly as juniors and are excellent at VFL level are your typical second round forwards. How many good key forwards were taken between picks 20-45?
I'll put it out there for you
Hits: Jake Carlisle (24/2009), Jack Darling (26/2010)
Breakevens/jury still out: Sam Reid (38/2009), Scott Lycett (29/2010), Fraser McInnes (28/2011), Shane Kersten (34/2011)
Busts: Tony Notte (20/2007), Matthew Westhoff (33/2007), Darcy Daniher (39/2007), Jayden Post (26/2008), Shaun Mckernan (28/2008), Jordan Roughead (31/2008), Liam Jones (#32/2008), Aaron Black (25/2009), David Astbury (35/2009), Joel Houghton (36/2009), Sam Grimley (39/2009), Ariel Steinberg (31/2010), Luke Mitchell (42/2010), Todd Elton (26/2011), Sam Rowe (44/2011)
2012- after is too soon to call but lets be fair, of Spencer White (25), James Stewart (27), Tim O'Brien (28), Mason Shaw (30), Michael Close (32) and Liam McBean (33) only Stewart has looked like a long termer thus far either.
To appease fans of Roughead, Astbury, Steinberg, Elton and Rowe, I've called them busts purely because drafted as forward types they failed there and now have found a niche or are trying to find one down back.
In short, irrelevant of how much you like them as juniors, cause they do suck you in hard - I bought into McKernan, Kersten, McBean, Shaw and Stewart as juniors too, there's a statistically significant chance of them busting.
You're essentially giving a second round pick for a 10% chance of securing a long term forward. To me that's just wasting it, you'd be better off playing the odds and filling gaps elsewhere.
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- Thread starter
- #112
If you want a key forward who isn't a stop gap you find them early or through alternative pathways. Look at this - I've listed all the forwards I can remember who are or were once blokes you could work with, not stop gaps. Pretty damning. None were 18 year olds selected after 43, and Goodes is an outlier with Tippett the next at 32. Darling only at 26 because of question marks regarding discipline too.
It's damming. If you want a number two forward who can ruck, you find them early too - and sometimes you've just gotta cut your losses and use your number one forward to do that, as Boyd bloody well can. Plenty of those busts above were number two forwards who could ruck. But those types fail, and there's no point picking someone to fill a need if they're increasingly likely to not make the grade.
In my phantom this year I intend to select kpfs early and that's it. The guys who are second round standard to me are actually late to rookie standard if numbers are anything to go by - you've what? Got a 5-10% chance of grabbing a Tippett or a Dawes? Not worth it. At this stage blokes like Allen, Weideman, Smith, McKay etc are all in that range where they're second round types but don't present value there. If, on draft day, none have proven themselves as first round types, then I don't see much point in them.
Adelaide: Walker (NSW scholarship), Jenkins (mature age), Pods (mature age)
Collingwood: Cloke (F/S)
Essendon: Daniher (F/S + high draft), Carlisle (#24), Hurley (#5)
Fremantle: Pavlich (#4)
Geelong: Hawkins (F/S), Clark (#9)
Gold Coast: Lynch (#12), Dixon (zone)
GWS: Cameron (pre list - 1st rd talent), McCarthy (#14), Stewart (#27), Patton (#1)
Hawthorn: Hale (#7), Roughead (#2)
North: Petrie (#23), Waite (F/S), Brown (mature age)
Melbourne: Hogan (mini draft), Dawes (#28)
Port: Schulz (#12), Westhoff (mature age)
Richmond: Ty Vickery (#8), Ben Griffiths (#20), Jack Riewoldt (#13)
St. Kilda: Nick Riewoldt (#1), Josh Bruce (zone)
Sydney: Lance Franklin (#5), Kurt Tippett (#32), Adam Goodes (#43)
West Coast: Josh Kennedy (#4), Jack Darling (#26)
Western Bulldogs: Tom Boyd (#1), Jake Stringer (#5)
It's damming. If you want a number two forward who can ruck, you find them early too - and sometimes you've just gotta cut your losses and use your number one forward to do that, as Boyd bloody well can. Plenty of those busts above were number two forwards who could ruck. But those types fail, and there's no point picking someone to fill a need if they're increasingly likely to not make the grade.
In my phantom this year I intend to select kpfs early and that's it. The guys who are second round standard to me are actually late to rookie standard if numbers are anything to go by - you've what? Got a 5-10% chance of grabbing a Tippett or a Dawes? Not worth it. At this stage blokes like Allen, Weideman, Smith, McKay etc are all in that range where they're second round types but don't present value there. If, on draft day, none have proven themselves as first round types, then I don't see much point in them.
Adelaide: Walker (NSW scholarship), Jenkins (mature age), Pods (mature age)
Collingwood: Cloke (F/S)
Essendon: Daniher (F/S + high draft), Carlisle (#24), Hurley (#5)
Fremantle: Pavlich (#4)
Geelong: Hawkins (F/S), Clark (#9)
Gold Coast: Lynch (#12), Dixon (zone)
GWS: Cameron (pre list - 1st rd talent), McCarthy (#14), Stewart (#27), Patton (#1)
Hawthorn: Hale (#7), Roughead (#2)
North: Petrie (#23), Waite (F/S), Brown (mature age)
Melbourne: Hogan (mini draft), Dawes (#28)
Port: Schulz (#12), Westhoff (mature age)
Richmond: Ty Vickery (#8), Ben Griffiths (#20), Jack Riewoldt (#13)
St. Kilda: Nick Riewoldt (#1), Josh Bruce (zone)
Sydney: Lance Franklin (#5), Kurt Tippett (#32), Adam Goodes (#43)
West Coast: Josh Kennedy (#4), Jack Darling (#26)
Western Bulldogs: Tom Boyd (#1), Jake Stringer (#5)
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Dannnnnnnnnn
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- #113
Do you have any theories as to why such a pattern exists? While key forwards often take a while to develop it appears that if they're not developed enough to excel in their junior years they probably never will at AFL level - it's a pretty interesting dynamic. You see midfielders, ruckmen, midfielders, general forwards, general defenders and pretty much everything in between develop from little flashes as a junior into very competent AFL players...it's exceedingly rare for key forwards to do the same, as you've highlighted. It's commonly accepted that this is the way it goes but I haven't really been able to come up with, nor heard any reasonable theories as to why it occurs that way. It's always intrigued me.
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- #114
It's a tough one. Not sure it's too important to know why, just that 'it is' - if that makes sense.
That said, I'll theorise.
It's harder to learn how to dominate. Key forward is probably the hardest position on the ground to play well - you've got to be mentally in sync with the game and understand it. You've got to be in the right places, lead to the right places and know when to lead. It's almost an IQ thing - people can grow in height and weight and improve their motor skills but they can't really improve their intelligence to the same extent. You can always learn ways to lead, but it's very hard to learn how to be a natural.
I think key forward requires more 'IQ' than any spot on the ground and as such, we're able to assess that IQ at a junior level. For other positions, there are plenty of other contributing factors - growth, improvement and upside in basic motor skills, fitness, other mental traits; composure, resilience, concentration etc.
Key forwards create their own game, it's not like a midfielder where it's a 'get to the contest and go hard at the ball' or 'get to the contest and flank it for the receive' kind of basic idea, or a 'follow your man and shut him down' or a 'follow your man and run into space when he's out of the play' like defenders, it's a 'run to the spot you think the ball might end up while having someone try to prevent you from doing that' kind of idea - the role itself relies on the player to create every opportunity like no other position.
My guess is that to make it in the AFL as a KPF, you've got to show dominance as a junior - whether that be in creating separation and leading patterns or clean contested/marking ability. The traits required to show that dominance are far more translateable to AFL level and far easier to identify.
At a guess. This mightn't even make sense.
Then you get John Butcher. How he didn't become a franchise key forward I'll never know. I really thought he was special.
Good post. To answer the bolded in one word, I think mentality. With Butcher it became a self eroding confidence slide on the back of his injuries. Self doubt seems to plague him each time he steps out onto the field ever since the hip issue started to manifest itself in mid 2012. Have seen a similar kind of thing happen to the Essendon pair of Scott Gumbleton and Tayte Pears.
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I can see want you are saying I guess it just means that it all depends on how guys are rated by the clubs and hopefully their performance in the national champs/TAC/SANFL/WAFL and how much they are willing to work to be a good AFL player.
Great games this weekend, I made it down to Simonds for the Metro v Country game & there were plenty of impressive players
one that impressed me quite a bit (the first few quarters anyway) was Jarrod Berry, do you know much about him?
one that impressed me quite a bit (the first few quarters anyway) was Jarrod Berry, do you know much about him?
Berry an under ager from Ballarat rebels. Home club the Horsham Saints the same club as Darcy Tucker. fantastic athelete who appears to be still growing and could turn into one of the big body midfielders that all clubs are after. Vic country mvp in national under 16 last year then missed a heap of footy in second half of year due to ankle I think. The kid will get better and would be someone that clubs would already be looking at for high pick in 16 draft.
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- #119
Not really, most of the underagers from interstate are foreign to me at this stage of the year, it's through the champs and towards the back end that I get to know them going into next year.
How did Gresham play. More and more I'm thinking he could be a poor man's Dion Prestia.
He didn't really catch my eye, but it looks like he performed well
I was sitting in front of some scouts & Dean Gore was sitting in front of me
I wrote a little bit once I got back home from the game on the Dogs draft thread, I missed some players for sure
Parish is injured? didn't notice him out there
Loved the way Balic played, see...I knew he had talent (*cough* guessed)
Thanks a bunch for that, there was one moment that I really remember where he scooped the ball off the ground with one hand & baulked a player coming in to tackle him...looked much smaller on the ground
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- #121
Parish is injured, yeah.
I thought Gach Nyuon was poor in the first & really lifted over the next 3 quarters, Metros rucks jumped high & he would jump higher
took a good contested mark as well, in that first quarter he was roaming around in no mans land
what I liked most was when he let his opponent take an easy mark, he ran hard to defend & affected the contest
took a good contested mark as well, in that first quarter he was roaming around in no mans land
what I liked most was when he let his opponent take an easy mark, he ran hard to defend & affected the contest
Top effort mate! Although brissie and carlton at 20 and 21 should be swapped?
Id have us taking Weitering at 1, Jamo and Rowe aint cutting the mustard atm. If we scored Balic at 20 id be stoked!!!
Id have us taking Weitering at 1, Jamo and Rowe aint cutting the mustard atm. If we scored Balic at 20 id be stoked!!!
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- #124
Good call, not that it matters with Brisbane goimg academy at that pick.
More and more Im firming that they'll take Weitering and my next update will reflect that. I hope it allows Jaksch to play forward too as he's better there.
Balic I no longer suspect will be there. I initially got a bit of a Ben Lennon feel with him as that creative and classy half forward who looks good but rarely takes control of a game. The weekend indicated that he can dominate a game a little more that perhaps a Lennon type could and my ratings will develop to include that.
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I think we'll go schache At pick 4 love the romance of the having a father and son play at the same club
