Prediction So, where do we end up for season 2015?

Jul 28, 2012
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Really? Ouch!
Sorry to say we're not much chop, simply not competitive at times last week and when you start losing games by 7 goals at home the writing is well and truly on the wall. We all knew this was coming and we are going to hit the ground with a huge thud before getting back up again, expect some almighty big thumping's this year. If they pick up 7 or 8 wins then they will be doing very well indeed. Currently we are probably on a par with Carlton.
 

Farmer2Goggin

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 17, 2009
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If we get on top of the suns this week early, we need to go in for the kill. There should be no reason for complacency anymore, we are well and truly not good enough for that and our credits have expired. The next month will be telling

At this stage I'll take a win by less than a goal , as long as we get the 4 points:p

You would hope that what we are dishing up now is not how we will play for the majority of the Season.

The reality is that our Age Profile is finally catching up with us , we did so well last season but the signal to me was the poor H&A percentage and the straight sets exit. This Season is a bridge too far and to make the bottom part of the 8 would be very commendable.
This will be a huge test for our veterans , we are going to struggle and I'm interested to see if they knuckle down or become petulant........if I'm being honest I wonder whether the hunger and resolve from the old guys will be there if we start getting pumped.

Having said that if we start using the ball better and develop our forwardline strategy we can still kick big scores. Lot has to go right though , starting with a more effective midfield and a defence that can get the ball out of D50. Do we have the cattle though? :confused:
 
3 Points to make to this as I don't agree that simply because we cant win the flag that we should not worry about winning as many games as possible

1.We have played 2 games this year with cockatoo,lang and Gregson being played in both, so we are already playing the kids. Going to an extreme and playing only the kids may result in significant psychological damage to the club as winning and losing can both be a habit.
2.Finishing as high as possible gives as the best possible chance of attracting free agents.
3.Making a semi final would be a great experience for our younger players
1. I have never said choose to lose. Just my preference as a frustrated supporter that our drafting is always hampered by our high finishes, and if the kids are played all year, chances are they get experience, but we finish down.
2. Money, $, money- that's what will attract FA's. And if Kelly, Boris, Bartel etc all retire sooner than later , we will be in the market. Not because of a top 8 finish.
Where did Boyd end up?
Where did Mummy end up?
Where is GAJ?
3. IF we made a final, would not the temptation be to try and win it? Not sure the kids would get that experience, but as you say, it would be good experience, not great necessarily. Elim finals are not that edifying if it's a massive interstate loss, but a win, on the other hand....
 
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Footy Smarts

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Jun 19, 2006
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Agree on Carlton, not so sure about Richmond. They're way more even than us and much younger.

Don't know about that. Of course we've got a lot more old players that skews our statistics but we've also got a lot more young players. Their team on the weekend had only 3 players under 23 (Ellis, McIntosh and Vlastuin) while ours had 8 (Smedts, Guthrie, Caddy, Horlin-Smith, Bews, Lang, Gregson and Cockatoo).
 

Lana

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Jul 23, 2010
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Don't know about that. Of course we've got a lot more old players that skews our statistics but we've also got a lot more young players. Their team on the weekend had only 3 players under 23 (Ellis, McIntosh and Vlastuin) while ours had 8 (Smedts, Guthrie, Caddy, Horlin-Smith, Bews, Lang, Gregson and Cockatoo).

They have a younger average age but our team's age has a higher standard deviation.
 

Commando

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Apr 6, 2010
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Sorry to say we're not much chop, simply not competitive at times last week and when you start losing games by 7 goals at home the writing is well and truly on the wall. We all knew this was coming and we are going to hit the ground with a huge thud before getting back up again, expect some almighty big thumping's this year. If they pick up 7 or 8 wins then they will be doing very well indeed. Currently we are probably on a par with Carlton.

You guys are going way too hard on us, we are definitely NOT on a par with Carlton
 

Footy Smarts

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 19, 2006
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They have a younger average age but our team's age has a higher standard deviation.

Yeah absolutely. But everyone knows that a 19 year old and a 32 year old will be much further from their peak than a pair of 26 year olds. Richmond should be facing massive questions since they're playing almost no young players and not many inexperienced players but they're just not performing at all. The next 3 years should be their window but when it gets a bit tough they just don't look like it. Unless they can improve a lot in the next year or 2 they're going to be back for another rebuild because at the moment their current list doesn't look to be premiership contenders.
 
Jan 13, 2006
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1. I have never said choose to lose. Just my preference as a frustrated supporter that oir drafting is always hampered by our high finishes, and if the kids are played all year, chances are they get experience, but we finish down.
2. Money, $, money- that's what will attract FA's. And if Kelly, Boris, Bartel etc all retire sooner than later , we will be in the market. Not because of a top 8 finish.
Where did Boyd end up?
Where did Mummy end up?
Where is GAJ?
3. IF we made a final, would not the temptation be to try and win it? Not sure the kids would get that experience, but as you say, it would be good experience, not great necessarily. Elim finals are not that edifying if it's a massive interstate loss, but a win, on the other hand....

1.I understand what you are saying about the draft picks but the reality is that the side who finishes last on the ladder only gets 1 extra pick on the side who finishes fist .Bottom side gets pick 1, premiers get pick 18, bottom side gets pick 19.To make it worth whiled we would have to trade for 1 or 2 top 20 draft picks.

2.True some do leave for money but others for success , surely if we can offer both it will help ?

3.We need to persist with a balanced team that plays as many young players as possible but still with a chance of competing. Don't forget about those 22-23 years olds who are still a work in progress and would deeply benefit from another finals campaign.
 
Oct 5, 2013
9,443
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I think we finish 6th. Reckon we beat Suns comprehensively and we beat North Melbourne to get back upto 2-2 for the first month.
Tigers have always been our bitches even at the worst of times while Collingwood, Carlton and West Coast are a little below our level. Should be right amongst the pack by the midway mark of the year.

Having said that, we are merely making up the numbers, just as the rest of the competition is excluding Sydney, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide and Fremantle.

Be interesting to see how Hawthorn cope now they have a couple of major injuries and a pretty old core of senior heads. They have tended to struggle without Sam Mitchell in that team.
 

CharacterFirst

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Feb 25, 2011
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I'm not a Geelong supporter so excuse the intrusion but personally I think $13-1 for you guys to make the Top 4 is great value in terms of betting. It's a long, long season, and if you can win the 50/50 games against the Norths and Bombers, etc., it isn't out of the realm of possibility. Thoughts?
Save your money.

No point throwing good dollars after bad.

We will not finish top 4 - that much is certain.
 
Aug 2, 2012
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1. Last week we had 10 players out of 22 who are new to the side or playing new roles, and sometimes both. It will take time for them to gel, to get used to each other and to the gameplan. Just one notable example of this unfamiliarity was the number of players who were flatfooted when they received handpasses.
2. We have played 2 good sides who have both played close to their best, and each of which are very strong in areas where we are noticeably weak - Hawthorn's style is guaranteed to exploit our weak F50 defensive pressure and outside run, and Fremantle again exploited our weak and under-strength midfield.
3. I don't know where we'll end up this season, it's simply too soon to tell.
4. Given point 1 above, there's going to be more pain against the top sides, and probably against other sides as well.
5. We'll probably know better by the end of the season whether the pain is going to be worth it in the longer term; but maybe it will still be a work in progress at that stage.
 

wcadams88

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Feb 27, 2012
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1. Last week we had 10 players out of 22 who are new to the side or playing new roles, and sometimes both. It will take time for them to gel, to get used to each other and to the gameplan. Just one notable example of this unfamiliarity was the number of players who were flatfooted when they received handpasses.
2. We have played 2 good sides who have both played close to their best, and each of which are very strong in areas where we are noticeably weak - Hawthorn's style is guaranteed to exploit our weak F50 defensive pressure and outside run, and Fremantle again exploited our weak and under-strength midfield.
3. I don't know where we'll end up this season, it's simply too soon to tell.
4. Given point 1 above, there's going to be more pain against the top sides, and probably against other sides as well.
5. We'll probably know better by the end of the season whether the pain is going to be worth it in the longer term; but maybe it will still be a work in progress at that stage.

The most balance and precise points I have seen so far.
 
Jul 28, 2012
11,008
10,326
Melbourne, the lost City.
AFL Club
Geelong
Other Teams
QPR, Buffalo Bills
You guys are going way too hard on us, we are definitely NOT on a par with Carlton
This weeks game is critical, if they lose to the Suns and get thumped by North the following week then we are way behind the Blues. Currently the team has slipped alarmingly since last year, we probably have the worst midfield in the competition and for the first time in a very long time the Cats are uncompetitive against the top 4-6 teams. It will take a miracle to make the 8.
 

00VicWard001

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Sep 3, 2011
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1.I understand what you are saying about the draft picks but the reality is that the side who finishes last on the ladder only gets 1 extra pick on the side who finishes fist .Bottom side gets pick 1, premiers get pick 18, bottom side gets pick 19.To make it worth whiled we would have to trade for 1 or 2 top 20 draft picks.

2.True some do leave for money but others for success , surely if we can offer both it will help ?

3.We need to persist with a balanced team that plays as many young players as possible but still with a chance of competing. Don't forget about those 22-23 years olds who are still a work in progress and would deeply benefit from another finals campaign.

Even if we fall this year, we have established a certain reputation for success that will draw not only the ones seeking $, but the ones seeking success too. We aren't going to become the bulldogs or melbourne in one year. Players and fans will assume that it's a momentary dip, and there will be an upswing once we hit that sweet spot of ten 24-27 year olds. And we still have Taylor, Selwood, Hawkins.
 

BIGANT

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Jan 19, 2006
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Going back to pre-season predictions of where most of us thought (off the top of our heads, and some deeper) where we would, could be after the first 5-8 rounds...has any one changed their split of w/l's. And w the way we've lost in the first two, has that dramatically changed your preditions of where the cats will finish at the end of the yr ?
 

Commando

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Apr 6, 2010
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This weeks game is critical, if they lose to the Suns and get thumped by North the following week then we are way behind the Blues. Currently the team has slipped alarmingly since last year, we probably have the worst midfield in the competition and for the first time in a very long time the Cats are uncompetitive against the top 4-6 teams. It will take a miracle to make the 8.

Ok let's review in a month.....
 

Scottland2007

Premiership Player
Feb 7, 2011
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Sorry to say we're not much chop, simply not competitive at times last week and when you start losing games by 7 goals at home the writing is well and truly on the wall. We all knew this was coming and we are going to hit the ground with a huge thud before getting back up again, expect some almighty big thumping's this year. If they pick up 7 or 8 wins then they will be doing very well indeed. Currently we are probably on a par with Carlton.
I agree. Lucky to beat Carlton twice last year. I can see us losing the close ones. We'd be Lucky to beat Carlton, Richmond, Adelaide and Brisbane this year. If that happens we won't play finals.
 
Oct 5, 2013
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I agree. Lucky to beat Carlton twice last year. I can see us losing the close ones. We'd be Lucky to beat Carlton, Richmond, Adelaide and Brisbane this year. If that happens we won't play finals.

of course, we aren't factoring in any major improvements made by younger players which is why most of us are worried as of right now.
Who knows, by the end of the year, we could seriously have found a few players who have revitalized the team and have us pushing as an outside smokey again.
 
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