List Mgmt. 2014 Draft Trade FA Megathread

[Sunshine Saint]

What did you rate McEvoy?

Less than Hawthorn did. But its a little like how do you rate McDonalds? But then add to that, how do you rate McDonalds if you haven't eaten in four days? Rating can be dependent on a clubs needs,

 

[Highlander35]

Chicken Nuggets and Sweet and Sour sauce are an 8 out of 10 every single day of the week, regardless of time and place. 9 out of 10 if your really hungry.

Everything else varies from 3/10 to 7/10 depending on hunger and item.

 

[Kilroy]

Sure hope none of our players read this stuff. I'm hoping that natural attrition will determine who goes. Obvious underperformers (judged at the end of the year), those excess to needs due to the growing credentials of younger players, and any disenfranchised or home-sick players should account for the room we'll need for the new draft guns we get later this year. As our confidence in the recruiting department is growing by the minute, we could reasonably back them in to choose wisely with whatever round picks they use.
Show loyalty and keep the faith!

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Actually that I think is one way for us to end up gaining some very handy players without giving up much in return - take the excess from teams that are loading up.
Hawthorn are going to have loads of cap room. If they pick up Frawley, does another defender become available? Just like GWS getting Mumford from the Buddy-Swans fallout, there could be opportunities to grab handy players on the cheap.



Surely if I'm apparently off my but for suggesting we'd trade Newnes or Saunders who might be a gun, then the club couldn't be letting Jack Steven go, who IS a gun midfielder that does more or less everything.

Yeah I struggle to think of a good return for Jack Steven. What draft pick would guarantee we got a player as good as him? ( am I delusional or is he better than Scully or Trengrove )?
Would we settle for one early pick? Is there the slightest chance we would get 2?

 

[Manimal_Dunstan]

Jack Steven > Scully and Trengove by a mile. No way are you delusional!!

 

[dewah07]

selling jack steven belongs on the same shelf that has newnes being traded

 

[holllywood]

Something should be said about team cohesion and how this is a super important part of building a successful teams. Just look at Hawthorn and Geelong, their players just know how to play with each other, where to run and how to stick to team structures. This makes them both a better team than the sum of their parts. So as a rebuilding team we should be looking to do something similar, build a healthy core of players who know how to play with each other, know the role, know the game plan and want to play for St.Kilda.

There is no point just trading off players when they have some trade value to get a higher pick unless the trade is too good to refuse or the player wants to leave. Geelong haven't done this because they back their players, along with their development, to become the players they need. They don't trade their young players with value for a pick in the hope to get a better player, they let them develop and become good VFL players ready to take the step up.

And this is the road I hope we take, keeping bringing in talent and back them, and our coaches, along with our current group of young players to develop into players needed to win a premiership.

 

[Sunshine Saint]

Something should be said about team cohesion and how this is a super important part of building a successful teams. Just look at Hawthorn and Geelong, their players just know how to play with each other, where to run and how to stick to team structures. This makes them both a better team than the sum of their parts. So as a rebuilding team we should be looking to do something similar, build a healthy core of players who know how to play with each other, know the role, know the game plan and want to play for St.Kilda.

There is no point just trading off players when they have some trade value to get a higher pick unless the trade is too good to refuse or the player wants to leave. Geelong haven't done this because they back their players, along with their development, to become the players they need. They don't trade their young players with value for a pick in the hope to get a better player, they let them develop and become good VFL players ready to take the step up.

And this is the road I hope we take, keeping bringing in talent and back them, and our coaches, along with our current group of young players to develop into players needed to win a premiership.

True but Geelong have had three huge advantages that allow them to do this. Outstanding recruitment, where they haven't had the complete wipe out years that we have had, great player development, with their own standalone VFL team and incredible father son selections, with Abletts, Scarlett and Hawkins.

GWS have shown that astute trading, stockpiling players and trading to improve their list is an effective strategy (for list improvement, not yet wins). This was shown with last years draft in which they traded Tyson for Kelly, effectively upgrading their list.

 

[holllywood]

True but Geelong have had three huge advantages that allow them to do this. Outstanding recruitment, where they haven't had the complete wipe out years that we have had, great player development, with their own standalone VFL team and incredible father son selections, with Abletts, Scarlett and Hawkins.

GWS have shown that astute trading, stockpiling players and trading to improve their list is an effective strategy (for list improvement, not yet wins). This was shown with last years draft in which they traded Tyson for Kelly, effectively upgrading their list.

Agreed, and as I said if the offer is too good to refuse, for example picking up a player of Kelly's quality while not giving away the house, then of course we should do it. What I am saying is that we shouldn't trade players for the sake of trading them, I.e Newnes for a first rounder because another team is willing to do it.

And yes, Geelong have had those advantages but I see us following a similar path, in that we are pumping games into youngsters, making them play important roles for the teams and we will have a stand alone team in 2016. Obviously they scored a lottery with the FS but even without them they would still be a great side because they are a (cashed up) football factory.

 

[L_W_P]

One advantage Geelong has that never gets talked about is their very unique home ground option.

Far enough away from Melbourne to be a hassle for Vic teams yet not so far they can't occasionally get to Etihad or the G.

They get to play most (all?) their home games against non Vic clubs there as well as the bottom ranked Melbourne teams who might only visit once every 3-5 years.

Very, very good setup that.

 

[bird_man]

No one will want Dunnel, in fact I doubt we will want

Geary Ray and Curren would either be steak knives or an attempt to uprade a pick, neither would demand a first rounder on their own.

We wouldn't get a first rounder for Gilbert or Armitage either. We don't have anyone that would get us a first rounder (besides Steven who is untouchable) so I think 2nd round pick are more likely.

 

[VDS66]

Geelong have the best development academy... their VFL team. when a player debuts, they are mature already. Once again we are seeing their ultimate list transition in progress.

 

[Curious George]

What did you rate McEvoy?

We got more than what I would have expected for him.

 

[Curious George]

No one will want Dunnel, in fact I doubt we will want


We wouldn't get a first rounder for Gilbert or Armitage either. We don't have anyone that would get us a first rounder (besides Steven who is untouchable) so I think 2nd round pick are more likely.

Dunell must have been doing something right, considering he was a rookie and now on the senior list, just can't get a game to prove what his got I guess.

 

[Smoke_Me_AKipper]

Some interesting hypotheticals and that is what they are IMO - hypotheticals.

As someone said we are still building out list and will stick with youth. Newnes, Steven, Webster, Wright, Curren, Hickey, Longer, Billings, Dunstan, Acres, Weller, Ross, Templeton, & Saunders would all be required players you would think, (that is slightly more than a third of the list). Add Roberton, Stanley & Lee to that and you are nearly nudging half the list.

I think players retiring will allow us to top up this year, I mean use our draft picks, and people like Dunell, TDL, & Milera will most likely be in the gun.

I also think you need players like Tommy Simpkin who I like a lot as cover. Remember Fisher, Gwilt, and Dempster are towards the end of their careers. You need players who have the ability to step up.

I think we need at least one key forward (maybe two) as well as more pace through the midfield

Slightly off topic - we got Steven, Newnes, Webster, Stanley, and Saunders all in the pick 37-48 range which is an outstanding performance from our recruiting team. You guys know how much I rate our recruiting team but still it needs to be said.

 

[Curious George]

That would be crazy good, I think you'd need to go first and second.

I think you'll need to go 1st and a young player, from another clubs prospective its too much of a risk to get a 2nd or 3rd pick, and get something good from it.

 

[Smoke_Me_AKipper]

Also guys this draft is meant to be a great draft, a deep draft so it is unlikely we will part with draft picks unless the deal is super good. We would want to use our 1st two draft picks on more elite talent to add to our list, (a key fwd and a mid you would think depending on who is available)

 

[sammm]

Stockbroker is a great analogy.
You buy low (Longer for a mid-20s pick) and then when you have too much invested in a similar spread of assets (2 tap ruckmen in their early-mid 20s, neither of whom can play forward), you sell for a profit (Longer for pick 8, for example).

I think the Longer trade was a bonus for Pelchen and not part of the plan. Now he has 2 chances to end up with a really good young tap ruck. And whichever doesn’t win the starting spot, is great trade currency.

I think people are thinking this is what I’d want to happen. That’s not the case. I’d like Longer to become Dean Cox, Newnes to become Jarrad McVeigh, Saunders to become Gary Ablett Jr. That would do nicely thanks, and then we never need to trade at all.
However it’s foolish to think that every single recruit that St Kilda make will become a cracking player. The boss of player movements has said he wants more picks – a lot more. 18 over four years in the first 3 rounds.

It is more realistic to accept that some players will fail, and that others will want to leave for various reasons.

(Dempster trade was wishful thinking getting that comp!)

PS. Anyone had problems with Tapatalk this week? Keeps not being able to find forum.

No, Tapatalk has been fine for me.

Sent from my GT-I9100T using Tapatalk

 

[hayes]

Working fine for me as well.

 

[sammm]

Top-10 draft picks aren't highly speculative stock, they're what's likely to bring you a truly elite player. Say we draft Brayshaw. You wouldn't give up Newnes and a 2nd rounder to get Durdin or one of the other handful of top KPPs in this draft?



Look disagree with my opinion all you want, I don't mind that (although people outright saying it's crap is a bit needlessly offensive).
But don't give me this pish about me misinterpreting Pelchen.

Here's the letter: http://www.saints.com.au/news/2013-10-11/pelchens-open-letter-to-members
And here's the statement:
"Our strategy includes increasing our draft activity by 50% in the first 3 rounds of the AFL National Draft over the next four years. Initially, our plan was to secure three selections inside 20 at this year's draft - an outcome we remain determined to achieve prior to the end of the 2013 AFL Trade Period."

He only makes reference to the first round when he discussed the initial kick-start, which was 3 first rounders in 2013 which they undoubtedly at the time of writing pretty much knew they'd achieved. The letter hit my inbox barely 24 hours after they traded Big-Boy; they'd have known then that the Hawks deal was including a swap of the additional Buddy comp pick - they would have been pretty certain that Buddy wasn't going to garner top comp (if he did then I think Hawthorn would have arranged the deal to give us something else instead). Remember it was then many days later before it was officially confirmed we got the other 1st rounder, but Pelchen already knew he had it in the bank when he (very cleverly) publicly set himself the aim.
I digress...
Increasing by 50%, first 3 rounds, next four years. So that's 4 drafts x 3 rounds = 12 picks. Increase by 50% = 18 picks.
I'd say for 2013 whilst they only had the 3 picks in that space, I would say Longer counts towards it as an unexpected bonus, and so does Eli since they had him ranked to go in the top 30 or so. So I'd go with saying they bagged 5 of their intended 18 this year.

That means 9 picks left to use in the next 3 drafts at the moment, but their aim is 13 - i.e. they need to find 4 more draft picks from somewhere. Ideally good ones.
Disagree with my opinion but don't make out that I'm outright lying when the facts are there in black and white!

Things do change. If Pelchen doesn't do what's in the letter it may mean the list he has got has gone better then he thought.

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[sammm]

Yeah the old Videovic as Rexy used to call him was underated. Wasn't overly mobile but was extremely physical and held his own at centre bounces.
Poor old Brett Cook was thrown into the deep end and we went into the Granny with our third string ruckman
Oh why did you get me thinking of 97. Now im sad again

like you said we should've won that game if spider had been available.

When spider left I hated him and booed him when he got the life membership. Iam over that now.

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[Richter]

A really interesting discussion. I hope nobody minds if I add some thoughts (originally posted elsewhere) but food for thought anyway...

Our potential team/squad in 2017... (with ages in brackets)...

Gwilt (30) Delaney (27) Geary (28)
Webster (23) Bruce (24) Wright (23)

Armitage (28) Hickey (26) Dunstan (22)
Montagna (33) Steven (27) Newnes (24)

Billings (21) Stanley (26) Templeton (21)
Saunders (22) ????????? ?????????

INT: Gilbert (30), Curren (24), Ray (31), Ross (23)

Defensive depth: Roberton (25)
Midfield depth: Savage (26), Weller (25), Longer (23), Pierce (22), Acres (21)
Forward depth: Lee (26), Markworth (25), White (22)
--------------------------------------
Retired: Hayes, Fisher, Riewoldt, Dempster, Jones, Schneider, Maister
Delisted: Milera, Dennis-Lane, Holmes, Dunell, Simpkin, Shenton, Siposs, Minchington, Murdoch
--------------------------------------

The average age of this squad of 29 players is just over 25 yo. There's a lot of evenness in there in terms of age-mix and quality... but clearly there are some problems...

- there's a big hole in the forward line with not much depth there

We'll be hoping that one (or more) of Markworth, Lee, White and Minchington can become a regular.
TDL or Milera may still be kept for depth... or more likely recycled players traded for and tried instead.
Clearly we'll need to get hold of another quality tall forward either from the draft, say this year, or by trading or free agency in 2/3 years time.

- there are only 4 likely A graders in there (Steven, Billings, Webster (probable IMO), Montagna (ageing))

In particular, whilst there is already a degree of midfield depth, the outright quality looks slim (eg. when matched up against say GC - Martin, Ablett, Swallow, O'Meara, Prestia, Bennell, Kolodjashnij). We'll need to prioritise QUALITY over quantity when recruiting mids.

- there's a lack of depth in the backline

The current starting back 6 (minus the ageing Dempster and Fisher) look good to go for another few years but there isn't much else. This presents an opportunity for the likes of Cam Shenton (still only 23) to step up. Really not sure what has happened to Dylan Roberton this year? Again, the well of the draft, trading and free agency will be looked at.... though IMO we shouldn't look to spend too much in this area as defence is more about a team and effort orientation rather than a search for elite quality.
OVERALL STRATEGY FOR RECRUITING OVER THE NEW 3 YEARS

From the above we can see that we should expect a turnover of around 5 players per year over the next 3 years. This is much less than our average of the last few years (?approaching 10 players per year) In terms of new recruits this equates to a mix each year of perhaps... 2/3 players in the draft, 1/2 from trades/free agency, and 1 new rookie. IMO we can expect to have around 6 picks <30 over the next 3 years which should be used to try to snare 4 mids and 2 tall forwards. The 3rd round pick (around 45-50) can be used to trade for backline or small forward depth.

In terms of trading OUT, my list analysis suggests that the only real area we can afford to let players go is B/C grade midfielders e.g. 1 of Hickey/Longer/Pierce, 1/2 of Armo/Ross/Saunders/Newnes/Curren/Weller. There are significant arguments against doing this. The best reason FOR doing so would be if for instance we could use one of these players to improve our 2nd round pick (around #30) to a mid/late-teen pick or 3rd round pick (#50) to around #30. OR we could look to trade out our first pick for one of the GWS/GC guns as one or other is inevitably forced out by $$ pressure (Swallow, Prestia, Kolodjashnij, Shiel, Whitfield, Greene, Kelly, Patton, Boyd, Cameron). Or even a 2nd rounder for one of Tomlinson, Stewart, Lynch, Lonergan.

We look placed to snag a quality free agent in 2016 (or 2017/18) as over the next 2 years we will lose some well paid players. Dangerfield, Sloane, Rich, Redden, Shuey or Yarran??

 

[Persevering Saint]

Excellent analysis Richter.

 

[adambrown]

For the love of god please don't let us go after Frawley. He is too old, too expensive and doesn't fit anything the club has been saying they will do (FA's from 2016).

I don't see why he would come to us unless no body else is interested, in which case we should take the hint and leave him at the Demons. Hopefully the Hawks go after him so even if we want him we don't get him.

Frawley's not to old, Roo probably has a year left in him after this year and then who do we have as a forward? Lee, Maister, White, Baker-Thomas? If he didn't work as a forward he would be a bloody handy 3rd tall in the back line.
Im not saying move heaven and earth to get him but put an offer to him and if he chooses the Saints well happy days.

 

[hayes]

Wow Gwilt only 30 at the start of the 2017 season? Did not realize that, thought he would've been at least a couple of years older. Definitely have him in the 2017 plans then.