Analysis St Kilda: Where are they at with the rebuild?

[Persevering Saint]

This is a thread specifically about our list, and specifically about each of the players on the list.

My question is: Where do you see each remaining player on the list, in terms of potentially playing in a Top-4 team? Who are the certainties? Who are the 50/50s? Who are a long way off?

Kinda tied to that, is who have cemented themselves as part of the rebuild? Whose development this year indicates that they are part of the future for this club? Essentially, who do you think are part of our, say, 2017 best-22?

 

[felsty]

This is a thread specifically about our list, and specifically about each of the players on the list.

My question is: Where do you see each remaining player on the list, in terms of potentially playing in a Top-4 team? Who are the certainties? Who are the 50/50s? Who are a long way off?

Kinda tied to that, is who have cemented themselves as part of the rebuild? Whose development this year indicates that they are part of the future for this club? Essentially, who do you think are part of our, say, 2017 best-22?

1. Hickey - 90% - think he is good enough, got the tools, and creates a point of difference with Longer. Will be very interesting to see what happens next year as we haven't really seem them play together yet.
2. Siposs - 50% - no doubt he needs a big year this year. Think we need to give him one more and a chance for him to make or break.
3. Steven - 100%
5. Savage - 85% - another who I think needs a big year. I would want to see him play out of the midfield and not just find it easy coming off the flanks. He needs to challenge himself.
6. Ross - 80% - I tend to think he is at 100% but he obviously needs to fill the void left by Lenny and show us what he has got. Definitely a late bloomer but I think he has the tools to make it. I would almost be inclined to slim him down a bit and get him a running coach to try and change his running style.
7. Dunstan - 100%
8. TDL - 0%
9. Lee - 75% - needs a big year but think he can make it as that flexible third tall. He could be an extremely dangerous player in that position.
10. Markworth - 70% - needs to get out on the park! Another who could provide a dangerous matchup forward of centre.
14. Geary - 70% - if we become a better side he needs to be overtaken by the youngsters, but I see him as a small defender, allowing players such as Webster and Wright to move into the midfield.
15. Billings - 100%
16. Newnes - 100%
17. Roberton - 80% - perfect for that third tall role but will be in and out of the side based on matchups.
18. Longer - 80% - has shown heaps this year, my only reasoning is that we haven't seen how he and Hickey will be playing together. I feel like they compliment each other nicely but the proof will be in the pudding.
20. Armitage - 100% - critical for us as that midfield leader. May not get heaps of possessions but provides an enormous presence.
21. Delaney - 100%
22. Ray - 80% - possibly a bit like Geary but think his leadership may be important, especially when Montagna leaves us.
23. White - 70% - only two games so far and shows he can match it but needs greater fitness to get to more contests. Will come with greater preseasons.
24. Dempster - 60% - critical in the defence, much like Armitage in the centre, could actually replace Geary saw I think Dempster is more important. Should only play on smalls though.
26. Curren - 60% - think he is an out and out ball winner and needs to be played as one.
27. Bruce - 100%
28. Stanley - 100% - so important structurally for us as that back-up ruck
29. Webster - 100% - however I see him primarily as a defender, is just so good one on one. May push to a wing.
30. Murdoch - 100% - some might not agree but I think he is the perfect inside outside prototype footballer. Will be extremely good in the guts!
31. Simpkin - 0% - love the bloke but hope he is moved on. Is handy depth ATM, and I hope he does succeed as a KPD.
34. Wright - 95% - Geary replacement. Will be solid without being great.
35. Saunders - 95% - love him but really just adds to our small midfield department, which is huge ATM! Is a class above VFL which suggests he has the tools to make it, as well as providing pace that we lack.
38. Dunell - 0% - Gone
39. Shenton - 0% - gone.
40. Acres - 100% - will be another handy inside out mid and important for the future.
41. Minchington - 100% - has shown more than enough to be a part of the team going forward.
42. Pierce - 80% - very very handy ruck depth. Unsure whether he will be moved on, tried, etc.
43. Templeton - 100% - has shown heaps me will be upgraded within the next year.
44. Weller - 80% - will definitely make it but like Curren is a ball winner and needs to be played as one.
45. Holmes - 70% - has improved out of sight, but unsure where he fits with all our ruck depth.

My team full of youngsters?

FB: Geary, Delaney, Roberton
HB: Webster, Bruce, Wright
RR: Hickey, Dunstan, Ross
MF: Savage, Armitage, Steven
HF: Billings, Stanley, Templeton
FF: Minchington, White, Lee
IC: Murdoch, Acres, Weller, Newnes
E: Saunders, Curren, Longer, Siposs, Markworth

 

[hayes]

FB: Wright Delaney Dempster/Fisher replacement

HB: Savage Bruce Webster

C: Murdoch Dunstan Newnes

HF: Billings White Stanley

FF: Eli Lee Saad

R: Hickey Steven Ross

I: Acres Weller Markworth Saunders

That's not a bad start. Add in some high draft picks in the next couple of years and one or two gun free agent top ups and we'll be in business.

I'd keep Savage at HB until we find another elite ball user to replace him in the backline. His kicking is too important in the back half to take him out.

I also think Saad will be back.

 

[Rors]

Persevering Saint, where are you at?

Seriously, i think we are in for a world of hurt next year. We are vulnerable across the board, there is not one part of the ground that doesnt need significant improvement.

1. The midfield is the worst by far - our own run & carry & spread is non-existent - then we also get absolutely burned when the opposition does their spread.

2. Defense - we need a good key defender over 194cm, like the titanic needs to avoid an iceberg. We do not need anymore Half Back Flankers....

3. Offence - We need decent running & hit-up half fowards & at least another 1-2 game-breaking KPFs.

TBH, I believe already we have all the blue-collar types we need for an assault on the top 4 in coming years. We really need some bloody classy types - Billings & Acres should help that cause, as should a few more kids this draft. But i still think we'd need to recruit at least 2 awesome Free Agents beyond 2015 to really be a threat

 

[HayesTheChamp]

Persevering Saint, where are you at?

Seriously, i think we are in for a world of hurt next year. We are vulnerable across the board, there is not one part of the ground that doesnt need significant improvement.

1. The midfield is the worst by far - our own run & carry & spread is non-existent - then we also get absolutely burned when the opposition does their spread.

2. Defense - we need a good key defender over 194cm, like the titanic needs to avoid an iceberg. We do not need anymore Half Back Flankers....

3. Offence - We need decent running & hit-up half fowards & at least another 1-2 game-breaking KPFs.

TBH, I believe already we have all the blue-collar types we need for an assault on the top 4 in coming years. We really need some bloody classy types - Billings & Acres should help that cause, as should a few more kids this draft. But i still think we'd need to recruit at least 2 awesome Free Agents beyond 2015 to really be a threat

We've got a bulk of much higher quality likely bottom 6-12 players that would do very well in a premiership contending squad. Just need the cream on the top IMO.

 

[Persevering Saint]

On the outside, categorically agree with you, Rors. We are severely beaten in that regard. On the inside, though, I gotta say I think we're doing okay. Sure, Lenny is gone, but Armo, Steven, Ross, Weller, and to a lesser extent Curren, Murdoch, Saunders, all look like a handy engine room. Minch could be a bit of a wildcard in that regard next year, too.

The problem is that, with the exception of Steven, none of those have any outside of note. I think Murdoch CAN, but we'll have to wait and see. Of those on our list right now, there's Newnes, Savage, Joey and Acres that might help there next year: Newnes has had a great year, but largely off half-back, Savage obviously kinda similar though both could make it in to the midfield next year. Joey should be better after he fixes that injury. Acres could really be the wildcard in that regard. Then there's Gilbert if he gets fit, Markworth if he stops walking under ladders with a black cat.

But yeah, I would love us to find some really special outside mids, and soon.

 

[Persevering Saint]

The other factor is that, we cannot discount the significance of the extra load the young players have had this year.

I think by about the middle of the year, if not earlier, the club shut-up-shop on winning games, no matter what they said. We've heard reports that training got a lot harder, and that was largely on the back of the young guys requesting it. They were preparing for next year, not focussing on this year. That means that this year they have looked worse than they really are at points, and I suspect that has particularly effected them in their ability to run hard and spread.

On the upside, though, it should reap dividends next year, for two reasons. Firstly, because they'll be far fitter and stronger than they would otherwise be next year, which can only be good. But secondly, because during pre-season, coaches have to decide which of two things they'll work on: fitness or skills & strategy. Clearly, they worked on fitness last year, because Watters had given the kids a little too much of a cuddle in his approach. But this coming pre-season, if they've already done a lot of fitness work, that may give the coaches space to ramp up the skills & strategy training.

 

[IllBeTheJudge]

As mentioned in another thread, I think we will have a poor wins / loss record next year and feel as though, despite the already significant changes in our list this season, we could cut pretty deep still.

TDL, Lee, Fisher, Schneider, could all quite possibly be let go. Not a lot of trade value in anyone there.

Simpkin, Siposs, Roberton, Saunders all with a question mark, though I think a case could be built for probably all of them. Mostly I think there are question marks as none of these players have been able to hold down a spot in the senior side.

 

[Moral Decay]

Persevering Saint, where are you at?

Seriously, i think we are in for a world of hurt next year. We are vulnerable across the board, there is not one part of the ground that doesnt need significant improvement.

1. The midfield is the worst by far - our own run & carry & spread is non-existent - then we also get absolutely burned when the opposition does their spread.

2. Defense - we need a good key defender over 194cm, like the titanic needs to avoid an iceberg. We do not need anymore Half Back Flankers....

3. Offence - We need decent running & hit-up half fowards & at least another 1-2 game-breaking KPFs.

TBH, I believe already we have all the blue-collar types we need for an assault on the top 4 in coming years. We really need some bloody classy types - Billings & Acres should help that cause, as should a few more kids this draft. But i still think we'd need to recruit at least 2 awesome Free Agents beyond 2015 to really be a threat

Can't like this enough, we have to be brutally honest; it isn't just what we have and will try to get but what the opposition already have and will get. in terms of talent we are behind the GCS and GWs 8 balls, whoever we get in we'll have to have the best development in the league to be competitive at the top end in 6 years time. I think we've got 2 more years of pain and every chance of being a bottom of the 8 team unless the new franchises implode.

 

[Defacto]

Persevering Saint, where are you at?

Seriously, i think we are in for a world of hurt next year. We are vulnerable across the board, there is not one part of the ground that doesnt need significant improvement.

1. The midfield is the worst by far - our own run & carry & spread is non-existent - then we also get absolutely burned when the opposition does their spread.

2. Defense - we need a good key defender over 194cm, like the titanic needs to avoid an iceberg. We do not need anymore Half Back Flankers....

3. Offence - We need decent running & hit-up half fowards & at least another 1-2 game-breaking KPFs.

TBH, I believe already we have all the blue-collar types we need for an assault on the top 4 in coming years. We really need some bloody classy types - Billings & Acres should help that cause, as should a few more kids this draft. But i still think we'd need to recruit at least 2 awesome Free Agents beyond 2015 to really be a threat

couldnt agree more. we have the GOPs, we have the role players. time to start adding the class.

also we need some quick elite runners that can help that run and spread and not turn it over as soon as they get it

 

[Manimal_Dunstan]

We'll be in for more pain next year but it'll still be good to watch the development of the youngsters.

I think we'll be in fine it's just going to take a few years and hopefully blood more young guns next season.

 

[Sir Skid]

couldnt agree more. we have the GOPs, we have the role players. time to start adding the class.

also we need some quick elite runners that can help that run and spread and not turn it over as soon as they get it

Agree. Then we should trade Faz this year. Turnover king.

 

[Persevering Saint]

Agree. Then we should trade Faz this year. Turnover king.

Yes, I'm surprised that there haven't been more calls for that, to be honest.

 

[Sir Skid]

Yes, I'm surprised that there haven't been more calls for that, to be honest.

Would make more sense to me than trading Steven or Armo that's for sure.
Faz overrated IMO

 

[Plugger35]

We'll be in for more pain next year but it'll still be good to watch the development of the youngsters.

I think we'll be in fine it's just going to take a few years and hopefully blood more young guns next season.

Yeah I can't see us bolting up the ladder in the next year or two, we'll probably still be around the bottom 4 but hopefully avoid another spoon.

Just need to keep developing the youngsters we've got and draft/trade in some more good talent, in a few years time we should start to reap the benefits and have a team in finals contention again.

 

[NarklesHelmet]

The question for me is, have we hit rock-bottom yet - that point where we know things are at their lowest ebb and we will start improving from there? It is hard to tell to be honest. I hope that we have hit rock bottom now but logic tells me next year could be even worse than this year with Lenny gone etc. and the classy young players getting second year blues. So I would say next year, 2015 will be the year we completely bottom out. 2016 we will start seeing the younger guys on our list blossoming more and then in 2017 we can start enjoying going to the footy again knowing we can compete against anyone again with an assault on the flag from 2018 onwards. We are in for a nasty year next year though I fear, all of the poor list management decisions from the past will come home to roost. We just have to keep the faith. It was never going to be easy to get back to the top but I believe we have a plan in place to do just that. Bring on the draft.

 

[Mowman]

We are in for a world of pain next year again, going to get worse before we get better. Can only see us winning 2 - 4 games next year and another pick 1 on its way

 

[Rors]

The question for me is, have we hit rock-bottom yet - that point where we know things are at their lowest ebb and we will start improving from there? It is hard to tell to be honest. I hope that we have hit rock bottom now but logic tells me next year could be even worse than this year with Lenny gone etc. and the classy young players getting second year blues. So I would say next year, 2015 will be the year we completely bottom out. 2016 we will start seeing the younger guys on our list blossoming more and then in 2017 we can start enjoying going to the footy again knowing we can compete against anyone again with an assault on the flag from 2018 onwards. We are in for a nasty year next year though I fear, all of the poor list management decisions from the past will come home to roost. We just have to keep the faith. It was never going to be easy to get back to the top but I believe we have a plan in place to do just that. Bring on the draft.

It's easy to be optimistic, but surely this year, with the horrendous run of injuries, has meant that this is rock bottom. I can't see us having that much bad luck, injury wise, in the foreseeable future. I mean, we had about 3 blokes fracture a bone in their leg, 4 long term shoulders, 4 long term foot, Eli's bizarre broken humerus, Markworth tearing his hammy off the bone & Hickeys mystery patella knee injury.

If just half these blokes stay injury free, next year our efforts should be a lot more consistent

 

[NarklesHelmet]

It's easy to be optimistic, but surely this year, with the horrendous run of injuries, has meant that this is rock bottom. I can't see us having that much bad luck, injury wise, in the foreseeable future. I mean, we had about 3 blokes fracture a bone in their leg, 4 long term shoulders, 4 long term foot, Eli's bizarre broken humerus, Markworth tearing his hammy off the bone & Hickeys mystery patella knee injury.

If just half these blokes stay injury free, next year our efforts should be a lot more consistent

Yeah reckon (hope) you're right in that injuries made this year even worse than it would have normally been. I think next year, with our older group from the Grand Final tilts either having retired or their output lessened through age and our young classy players not having had enough experience to impact games, will be when our list is at its lowest ebb from a balance point of view. God help us if we cop anything like the injuries we received this year.

 

[sverik25]

It's easy to be optimistic, but surely this year, with the horrendous run of injuries, has meant that this is rock bottom. I can't see us having that much bad luck, injury wise, in the foreseeable future. I mean, we had about 3 blokes fracture a bone in their leg, 4 long term shoulders, 4 long term foot, Eli's bizarre broken humerus, Markworth tearing his hammy off the bone & Hickeys mystery patella knee injury.

If just half these blokes stay injury free, next year our efforts should be a lot more consistent

I agree. I'm not expecting many if any more wins next year, but hopefully, we can put in some more consistent performances and not get thrashed so often. Obviously as you said that depends heavily on the number of injuries we have. We must be due for a good run with injuries soon though right?

Also, hopefully the AFL will give us an easier fixture next year. This year according to a lot of the experts our fixture was middle of the range in difficulty. A few more games against fellow strugglers and we might well avoid the spoon.

 

[hayes]

I don't know if I could handle a season worse than this one. For about three months our games were over at quarter time and we were basically uncompetitive. If that isn't rock bottom I'm scared to see what is!

 

[sammm]

The question for me is, have we hit rock-bottom yet - that point where we know things are at their lowest ebb and we will start improving from there? It is hard to tell to be honest. I hope that we have hit rock bottom now but logic tells me next year could be even worse than this year with Lenny gone etc. and the classy young players getting second year blues. So I would say next year, 2015 will be the year we completely bottom out. 2016 we will start seeing the younger guys on our list blossoming more and then in 2017 we can start enjoying going to the footy again knowing we can compete against anyone again with an assault on the flag from 2018 onwards. We are in for a nasty year next year though I fear, all of the poor list management decisions from the past will come home to roost. We just have to keep the faith. It was never going to be easy to get back to the top but I believe we have a plan in place to do just that. Bring on the draft.

If thats the case you have to wonder whether Richardson will last the 3 years. the jungle drums will start beating if 2 years in a row they get the wooden spoon and little development is seen by outsiders.

 

[sverik25]

If thats the case you have to wonder whether Richardson will last the 3 years. the jungle drums will start beating if 2 years in a row they get the wooden spoon and little development is seen by outsiders.

The club will just have to trust in the program they are implementing and give him time. The last thing we need is another sacked coach and further set back to our development.

 

[gringo2011]

Would make more sense to me than trading Steven or Armo that's for sure.
Faz overrated IMO

We do need some senior around the kids. Even Gold Coast and GWS want to bring in older players to set the training standards and look after the kids. Faz was never my favourite player but he has swayed me this year. One of our most consistent players all year.

 

[Rors]

We do need some senior around the kids. Even Gold Coast and GWS want to bring in older players to set the training standards and look after the kids. Faz was never my favourite player but he has swayed me this year. One of our most consistent players all year.

I'll back you on that. Faz is my smokey to make the top5 in our B&F. He's been very consistent this year