Syria 2012 - the year of blood

[Geelong_Sicko]

so, p'raps it did not "achieve" anything, but p'raps this is the incorrect question. It became resonant in the West, so it was validated in success and failure on this meta level, completely divorced from facts on the political ground. It may have highlighted the American doctrine of freedom and democracy, are not a linear progression and can be developed with a whitepaper from the state department or pentagon. perhaps freedom and democracy, is not the ultimate priority for some under repression from the state, the priority is merely to revoke the yoke of oppression...

Yeah, I think 'success' means different things in the eyes of individual beholders, for sure. As does 'repression'. For me, I was thinking along the lines of what the ordinary man or woman on the ground gets out of it. In Egypt we saw the Muslim Brotherhood briefly come to power before the military rolled in with more undemocratic dictatorship that the U.S is silent about.

In Bahrain we saw people pissed off in the streets before being crushed by troops from a neighbouring country, restoring the undemocratic nature of that nation. Which the U.S was also silent about.

Yemen - I'm still trying to work it out.

 

[MaddAdam]

Everyone should read The Crossing by Samar Yazbek.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/28/samar-yazbek-syria-the-crossing-interview

In it she makes very clear, as do the people on the ground she talks to, that Assad deliberately stoked the fires of the jihadis to make it a religious war.

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

Everyone should read The Crossing by Samar Yazbek.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/28/samar-yazbek-syria-the-crossing-interview

In it she makes very clear, as do the people on the ground she talks to, that Assad deliberately stoked the fires of the jihadis to make it a religious war.

You only got that from the piece? To me this bit;

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/28/samar-yazbek-syria-the-crossing-interview

...Yazbek makes the point that this is only partly about geopolitics – from Isis to US foreign policy, Syria is being used as a laboratory for experiments in how to destroy a nation. On the ground, as she explains in The Crossing, the result is to break human beings, literally and metaphorically, into pieces: “Syria will never be the same again,” she writes in the epilogue. “It has been hung, drawn and quartered...”

is more telling. Of course the Assad family wouldn't be the kind of people I'd want in charge of my life or indeed, my nation, but the "cosy" Syria of Ms Yazbek's childhood

...This is where I had grown up. I spoke the languages, I knew the people. What did frighten me as time went on, and as I made more trips, was the way everything I had once known in Syria was being turned into something else, something I didn’t quite recognise. This had once been a cosy place, a place of traditional loyalties and hospitality. But now the people have been scarred and mutilated...

was still the world of Hafez al-Assad, the 'Butcher of Hama' amongst other things as well as being father of today's President Bashar al-Assad.

Outside influences have prolonged the Syrian conflict, in my opinion. Each side is filthy and there are no 'good guys' fighting for control. No matter who takes power or holds power, there will be tides of revenge killing in the aftermath of this war.

 

[MaddAdam]

You only got that from the piece? To me this bit;

I read the whole book. The general agreement, especially from the first wave of fighters who were generally Islamic in religion but wanting a relatively secular state, that Assad freed jihadis and aided jihadis in order to turn the conflict into a religious war is pretty universal.

Of course they also complain about regional powers using them as pawns, the difficulty in getting arms and money when the hardcore Islamists have lots.

 

[blackcat]

You only got that from the piece? To me this bit;



is more telling. Of course the Assad family wouldn't be the kind of people I'd want in charge of my life or indeed, my nation, but the "cosy" Syria of Ms Yazbek's childhood



was still the world of Hafez al-Assad, the 'Butcher of Hama' amongst other things as well as being father of today's President Bashar al-Assad.

Outside influences have prolonged the Syrian conflict, in my opinion. Each side is filthy and there are no 'good guys' fighting for control. No matter who takes power or holds power, there will be tides of revenge killing in the aftermath of this war.

the father the father au pere[sic]

how about a determinism for bashar. not an apologia, but he inherits a regime, and the tyrannical totalitarianism of a mature infrastructure and its repressive interior ministry. his game may be less about saving the syrian people, but more saving his own @rse. if he moves left to release reins on the population, after his father died and he was the optometrist or eye surgeon in london, then his henchmen will move on him and assassinate him or hide him in a dank cell, or show trial[sic/verb] him.

#MichaelGlennondoublegov't

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

I read the whole book. The general agreement, especially from the first wave of fighters who were generally Islamic in religion but wanting a relatively secular state, that Assad freed jihadis and aided jihadis in order to turn the conflict into a religious war is pretty universal.

Of course they also complain about regional powers using them as pawns, the difficulty in getting arms and money when the hardcore Islamists have lots.

I seem to remember political prisoners being released in an attempt to placate the protesters

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...-on-protesters/2011/03/26/AFFoZDdB_story.html

Assad freed even more as part of a commitment to the Arab League in 2012, as far as I understand;

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2012-01-05/syria-political-prisoners/52387422/1

He was freeing members of the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood as far back as 2000

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2000/nov/17/brianwhitaker

BUT, I can definitely see how 'exploitable' releasing hardline Islamists into a general atmosphere of dissatisfaction and protest in an attempt to make that dissent appear more 'terroristic' (if that's a word) would be if you were organising a brutal response to those actions.

 

[MaddAdam]

the father the father au pere[sic]

how about a determinism for bashar. not an apologia, but he inherits a regime, and the tyrannical totalitarianism of a mature infrastructure and its repressive interior ministry. his game may be less about saving the syrian people, but more saving his own @rse. if he moves left to release reins on the population, after his father died and he was the optometrist or eye surgeon in london, the his henchmen will move on him and assassinate him or hide him in a dank cell, or show trial[sic/verb] him.

#MichaelGlennondoublegov't

His brother was always meant to take over from Dad.

The lisping opthamologist with the hot Brit wife was never in calculations.

Until the brother died.

He was slowly liberalising the place too. I mean, it was never going to be a Switzerland style direct democracy, but he was moving it away from a full police state into something that would better reflect democracy.

Which of course the US and especially the Gulf gangster states could never allow.

I always find it hilarious that the two only genuine democracies in that part of the world are Israel and Iran.

 

[MaddAdam]

I seem to remember political prisoners being released in an attempt to placate the protesters

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...-on-protesters/2011/03/26/AFFoZDdB_story.html

Assad freed even more as part of a commitment to the Arab League in 2012, as far as I understand;

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2012-01-05/syria-political-prisoners/52387422/1

He was freeing members of the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood as far back as 2000

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2000/nov/17/brianwhitaker

BUT, I can definitely see how 'exploitable' releasing hardline Islamists into a general atmosphere of dissatisfaction and protest in an attempt to make that dissent appear more 'terroristic' (if that's a word) would be if you were organising a brutal response to those actions.

I posted a piece by Chulov recently where a jihadi talks about how they were very obviously released in order to "infect" the revolution.

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

...f he moves left to release reins on the population, after his father died and he was the optometrist or eye surgeon in london, the his henchmen will move on him and assassinate him or hide him in a dank cell, or show trial[sic/verb] him.

Yeah, the Assad 'inner circle' seem to be a shadow government unto itself with its own plans.

http://www.thearabweekly.com/?id=201

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-13216195

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

I posted a piece by Chulov recently where a jihadi talks about how they were very obviously released in order to "infect" the revolution.

Maybe there's a few 'subjective' truths being thrown around the place. I mean, in January 1972 terrified elements of the British 1st Battalion, Parachute Regiment, returned fire from armed assailants callously using protesters as human shields in Londonderry, Northern Ireland AT THE EXACT SAME TIME said paratroopers opened fire without warning on fleeing, unarmed Civil Rights protesters in Derry, Northern Ireland.

Only the death toll stayed constant at fourteen.

Politics and its attendant sensibilities makes parallel realities an actuality. Events seem true that aren't in one instance, or exaggerate things in another. Perceptions shift. Outright fabrication makes things real if enough believe the lie.

I don't like what the Assad family has done is Syria. But I don't trust any of the Syrian opposition either. The jihadi might say anything that sows further seeds of doubt, though in fairness an Assadi will say the same from their perspective too.

The only constant are the dead, and their bodies say this s**t has gone on far too long.

 

[MaddAdam]

Maybe there's a few 'subjective' truths being thrown around the place. I mean, in January 1972 terrified elements of the British 1st Battalion, Parachute Regiment, returned fire from armed assailants callously using protesters as human shields in Londonderry, Northern Ireland AT THE EXACT SAME TIME said paratroopers opened fire without warning on fleeing, unarmed Civil Rights protesters in Derry, Northern Ireland.

Only the death toll stayed constant at fourteen.

Politics and its attendant sensibilities makes parallel realities an actuality. Events seem true that aren't in one instance, or exaggerate things in another. Perceptions shift. Outright fabrication makes things real if enough believe the lie.

I don't like what the Assad family has done is Syria. But I don't trust any of the Syrian opposition either. The jihadi might say anything that sows further seeds of doubt, though in fairness an Assadi will say the same from their perspective too.

The only constant are the dead, and their bodies say this s**t has gone on far too long.

Agreed. But some facts are facts regardless of the perception.

But Assad released the jihadis in order to turn the conflict religious and the jihadis were very happy to do so.

Doesn't mean the jihadis don't want to overthrow Assad, of course they do.

He's just betting they won't be able to.

With the Russian move, his bet looks very much like its paid off.

 

[MaddAdam]

I'd also say that Assad is very skilfully playing, or more likely he's being directed to, play the classic Russian/Putinist and also Iranian game or perpetual strategic ambiguity.

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

But Assad released the jihadis in order to turn the conflict religious and the jihadis were very happy to do so.

Doesn't mean the jihadis don't want to overthrow Assad, of course they do.

He's just betting they won't be able to.

With the Russian move, his bet looks very much like its paid off.

The bolded is the only bit I'm undecided about. 'Al Qaeda in Iraq' as it was then had already turned its attention to the protests/insurrection

https://www.aei.org/publication/intelligence-report-shows-obama-asleep-at-the-switch/

with this being the leaked (and heavily redacted, therefore almost useless) DIA report.

https://www.aei.org/publication/intelligence-report-shows-obama-asleep-at-the-switch/

Saudi and Gulf Monarchy interests (dunno if Turkey is directly allied) GUARANTEED that the Tehran-Damascus 'axis' would continue becoming as isolated as possible through sponsorship of militant Salafism/Wahhabism and the constant flow of arms.

Direct Russian intervention (boots on the ground) is now a game-changer, as you said.

 

[blackcat]

Agreed. But some facts are facts regardless of the perception.

But Assad released the jihadis in order to turn the conflict religious and the jihadis were very happy to do so.

Doesn't mean the jihadis don't want to overthrow Assad, of course they do.

He's just betting they won't be able to.

With the Russian move, his bet looks very much like its paid off.

the yanks did the same in abu ghuraib no? ok, some would have been anti-Baathist political prisoners, but there would have been both sunni and shia religious nutters that Sadaam had locked up. this is not an anti-US screed, this is just noting some very simple truths in repression of domestic dissidents (why? releasing them? well no you goose <generic>)

 

[blackcat]

The bolded is the only bit I'm undecided about. 'Al Qaeda in Iraq' as it was then had already turned its attention to the protests/insurrection

if the jihadis take ascendancy over the native internecine rebellion, and start spotfires everywhere with the domestic rebels, then the focus on the putsch of Assad loses what momentum it has, anti-insurgency101

 

[MaddAdam]

if the jihadis take ascendancy over the native internecine rebellion, and start spotfires everywhere with the domestic rebels, then the focus on the putsch of Assad loses what momentum it has, anti-insurgency101

Also gives him international "legitimacy" and allows Rusia/Iran to turn the US "terror" narrative against them.

 

[medusala]

I'd also say that Assad is very skilfully playing, or more likely he's being directed to, play the classic Russian/Putinist and also Iranian game or perpetual strategic ambiguity.

It helps when the western leader trying to unseat you is a couple of sixpacks short of a slab. Putin must be very chuffed with himself, first the Ukraine debacle now running rings around the US in Syria.

Also some news reports have China sending its navy to assist Assad.

In Bahrain we saw people pissed off in the streets before being crushed by troops from a neighbouring country, restoring the undemocratic nature of that nation. Which the U.S was also silent about.

Fifth fleet.

 

[blackcat]

#proxywar
#Brzezinski
#grandchessboard #Mackindergeopolitics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geographical_Pivot_of_History

 

[medusala]

#proxywar
#Brzezinski
#grandchessboard #Mackindergeopolitics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geographical_Pivot_of_History

He has a point. UK the same. Immigration has made foreign policy bloody difficult now due to a fifth element.

"Moreover, as America becomes an increasingly multi-cultural society, it may find it more difficult to fashion a consensus on foreign policy issues, except in the circumstance of a truly massive and widely perceived direct external threat."

 

[MaddAdam]

It helps when the western leader trying to unseat you is a couple of sixpacks short of a slab. Putin must be very chuffed with himself, first the Ukraine debacle now running rings around the US in Syria.

Also some news reports have China sending its navy to assist Assad.



Fifth fleet.

I'd suggest Obama is reasonably bright for not wanting to get heavily embroiled in a sectarian war in Syria.

 

[medusala]

I'd suggest Obama is reasonably bright for not wanting to get heavily embroiled in a sectarian war in Syria.

He has seen Ukraine dismembered and now has seen Russian troops stationed in the ME. That is hardly something the US wants. May not have had a great hand but played it very badly.

As you mention above, it now looks like Russia are the ones actually fighting terrorism whilst the US prevaricates. The US is in a no win situation now.

 

[MaddAdam]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34371501

Amid recent geopolitical machinations, one simple reality appears to have been forgotten or purposefully ignored: Assad is not and should never be seen as a better alternative to IS.

From the very first days of the revolution, Assad and his intelligence apparatus have consistently facilitated the rise of jihadists. This policy of aiding and abetting jihadist militants and manipulating them for Damascus' policy interests is a well-established Assad family practice, dating back at least to the 1990s.

By releasing dozens of al-Qaeda prisoners in mid-2011, Assad helped give birth to a thriving Islamist insurgency, including an al-Qaeda affiliate. By then adopting a deliberate policy of not targeting IS, Assad directly facilitated that group's recovery and explosion into the transnational "Caliphate" movement it claims to be today.

 

[blackcat]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34371501

the problem is when Assad was part of our triumvirate triptych whichever else ^3 synonym you wish

talk em in riyadh
disapprear em in cairo
torture em in damascus

Assad was #Ourbastards singular. Then the US put their PNAC american enterprise institute the world is your oyster manifest destiny plan into action

#fullspectrumdominance

 

[blackcat]

I'd suggest Obama is reasonably bright for not wanting to get heavily embroiled in a sectarian war in Syria.

maybe joint chiefs had him over a barrel tho. they never wanted to be drawn into iran even with dick cheney pretty keen, bush, to his credit, pulled them back "i am the decider"

 

[medusala]

maybe joint chiefs had him over a barrel tho. they never wanted to be drawn into iran even with dick cheney pretty keen, bush, to his credit, pulled them back "i am the decider"

You read "the Gamble" re Bush going against brass advice?