Syria 2014 - The Year Assad "Wins"?

[little graham]

Considering that nearly all of those fighting the government forces are foreigners, the number of foreigners fighting for Assad or against the insurgents must be huge?

 

[MaddAdam]

Considering that nearly all of those fighting the government forces are foreigners, the number of foreigners fighting for Assad or against the insurgents must be huge?

That's simply not true. Syrians remain by far the biggest element of the opposition.

It is just that many, many Syrians also still support Assad.

 

[little graham]

That's simply not true. Syrians remain by far the biggest element of the opposition.
.

Wikileaks put me on to some media that state otherwise.That most of the opposition fighters are foreigners, brought in by NATO and there unofficial friends.

 

[MaddAdam]

Wikileaks put me on to some media that state otherwise.That most of the opposition fighters are foreigners, brought in by NATO and there unofficial friends.

Yeah, Wikileaks.

ISIS are almost all foreign but the majority of the fighting is being done by Syrians opposed to the regime.

Worth nothing though that Assad is increasingly reliant on foreign assistance on the ground, from Lebanese Hezbollah, to Iranian and Iraqi Shia.

It is truly a regional war now, but the reality is it is still largely Syrians killing other Syrians.

 

[blackcat]

Yeah, Wikileaks.

ISIS are almost all foreign but the majority of the fighting is being done by Syrians opposed to the regime.

Worth nothing though that Assad is increasingly reliant on foreign assistance on the ground, from Lebanese Hezbollah, to Iranian and Iraqi Shia.

It is truly a regional war now, but the reality is it is still largely Syrians killing other Syrians.

and Qatari and Saud monies

 

[MaddAdam]

and Qatari and Saud monies

Qataris and the Sauds are at each others throats now, Sauds declararing the MB to be terrorists but Qatar still supporting them.

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

Maybe this starts a reversal of fortunes for Saudi Arabia. They were on a roll earlier with the invasion of Bahrain, absolute success in Libya and then early successes by their extremist proxies in Syria. I believe they also had a hand in the Washington-blessed coup against the democratically elected Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt.

Their interests are getting rolled back a tad now.

 

[MaddAdam]

Maybe this starts a reversal of fortunes for Saudi Arabia. They were on a roll earlier with the invasion of Bahrain, absolute success in Libya and then early successes by their extremist proxies in Syria. I believe they also had a hand in the Washington-blessed coup against the democratically elected Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt.

Their interests are getting rolled back a tad now.

It depends. There's a theory the Saudis are playing both sides - happy to fund the Islamic Front to be seen to be the leader of Sunni Muslims, but also happy for ISIS to continue as it distracts the jihadi attention from, well, overthrowing the House of Saud.

 

[MaddAdam]

Regime forces take back Krak De Chevaliers

Assad is winning

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014...urce=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&dlvrit=992637

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

I wonder what shape the old fortress is in right now? This is what it used to look like;

There are photos of it being shelled.

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

Some before/after shots of the Krak;

 

[MaddAdam]

That is horrible, but not as bad as what I feared. As you well know from the other place, I have been to Syria and the main reason I went was to visit Krak. All those places pictured I have seen up close. It really is an amazing place.

Here's a pretty sweet video. What happens when you stick a GPro on the front of an Assad regime tank. Looks like the world's most realistic FPS video game

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

There's going to be nothing left of that country by the time the war is finished. All those shattered neighbourhoods...

 

[Dont be a lemon]

Why does much of the population support Assad? Did they support him right from the beginning of the war?

 

[MaddAdam]

Why does much of the population support Assad? Did they support him right from the beginning of the war?

A variety of reasons that can be boiled down to two key elements - the jihadis and Iraq.

Syria's very sizeable religious minorities like the Alawites, the Christians and the Druze know perfectly well what would happen if Assad fell. And there's many many Sunni who don't want to live in a kind of real life horror fantasy where 18 year olds from Saudi enforce their "vision" of what life in the 6th century was like.

Then there's Iraq. There's lots of Syrians who would have liked reform but look at what happen in Iraq when Hussein fell and fear the same would happen to Syria.

As Robert Fisk - one of the few Western journos to report both sides - points out here, the Syrian Army is still majority Sunni and there have been no major defections or mutinies.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...my-syrias-war--the-generals-view-9206169.html

 

[Hap Hapablap]

it'll be a stalemate, as long as all these proxies and mercenaries are heavily involved syria will never be at peace.

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

it'll be a stalemate, as long as all these proxies and mercenaries are heavily involved syria will never be at peace.

Unfortunately I think you're right. Rebels/insurgents/terrorists (depending on your point of view) will keep bobbing up no matter how much territory they lose or how many of their leaders are slain.

 

[MaddAdam]

it'll be a stalemate, as long as all these proxies and mercenaries are heavily involved syria will never be at peace.

I don't know about that. There's suggestions now the jihadis themselves see it as a waste of resources and think Yemen is the better opportunity.

 

[Hap Hapablap]

I don't know about that. There's suggestions now the jihadis themselves see it as a waste of resources and think Yemen is the better opportunity.

The jihadists are heavily supported by the saudi and qatari regimes who in turn are supported by the usa

No chance theyd bail on it

 

[MaddAdam]

The jihadists are heavily supported by the saudi and qatari regimes who in turn are supported by the usa

No chance theyd bail on it

ISIS aren't. Saudi supports the Islamic Front, who are fighting ISIS.

Qatar is playing a very weird old game at the moment - paying $100m (so go the stories) to free the nuns in Yabroud, which helped Assad.

The jihadists in ISIS realise that Syria is unwinnable and even their closest local allies in Jabhat have turned against them.

And there's always the great debate in jihadist circles about whether the fight should be about taking on the infidels and apostates and heretics like Americans and Iranians and Jews, or whether it should be about overthrowing the traitor regimes at home.

Yemen would allow them gto directly take on the KSA - the ultimate jihad to many, liberating the two holy places etc etc.

 

[Unstable]

Here is a map of Southern Syria. Assad has basically won this region and it is a matter of time before he fully consolidates it.

 

[Unstable]

http://www.syrianperspective.com/2014/03/new-map-of-aleppo-offensive-2.html

Map of Aleppo. Pro-Assad source but most experts acknowledge SAA inroads into the City.

 

[Freo Big Fella]

Yemen would allow them gto directly take on the KSA - the ultimate jihad to many, liberating the two holy places etc etc.

Could they seriously tangle with the Saudis and hope to come out on top? I thought the argument was that post-Osama and KSM they didn't really have the expertise to take on a seriously western-backed and armed government. Too many up and comers being getting their experience through incestuous bloodletting in Syria and Somalia as opposed to proper guerrilla warfare like Afghanistan, Bosnia and Kosovo were to the previous generation.

 

[MaddAdam]

Could they seriously tangle with the Saudis and hope to come out on top? I thought the argument was that post-Osama and KSM they didn't really have the expertise to take on a seriously western-backed and armed government. Too many up and comers being getting their experience through incestuous bloodletting in Syria and Somalia as opposed to proper guerrilla warfare like Afghanistan, Bosnia and Kosovo were to the previous generation.

Idea - I'm not in the jihadi high command though - would probably be to entangle the Sauds in a conflict in Yemen itself.

 

[blackcat]

logic flaw

one does not win the 38th Parallel innit
#armistice_come_internecine