Syria 2014 - The Year Assad "Wins"?

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Smiling Buddha said:
The US supplying TOW missile launchers to the 'rebels'?

http://rt.com/usa/us-syria-moderate-opposition-weapons-921/

MaddAdam
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Anti tank missiles don't mean much. There's still thousands of tanks to be bought around the former USSR and in Russia itself, all of which will be paid for by Russian and Iranian money. Plenty of Assad types to get in them and they can be trained safely in Iran. Also, those things aren't as point and shoot as they're made out to be. But they can and will kill tanks so yes.

The only thing that could possibly change the battlefield situation is a mass drop of latest generation MANPADS. Assad's choppers hover over Aleppo and drop oil drums filled with explosives, complete air supremacy.

But the US has been very clear - and this article proves it - that no such transfer of weaponry can be countenanced. Even by the Gulf states. Even if it was attempted, the Israelis would very rightly sabotage it. And even then, the only real MANPADS of any worth at the moment are Russians - the Igla.

The "rebels" are losing and losing hard.

The way I see it, the fight will go on for another ten years but Assad and Russia will "reverse Dayton" NATO here. Call for peace talks every time the regime makes a serious advance. Look to get temporary peace agreements that "Balkanise" the country. "Agree" that certain areas will be safe havens etc. Then wipe them out one by one. They have the geo strategic wind at their side: they've defined (very shiftily) they fight as one where jihadis are the key opponent, and the West is sick of war.

There will be no interventions. There will be no airstrikes. Syria is broken, but not in the way the US/Israel alliance wanted.

The "other side" has won. The supply lines are still there to Hezbollah. Assad is still there. The strategic depth for Iran is still there. The US has again been shown up in a REAL fight.

The US had the opportunity to use Syria as Iran/Russia's Vietnam/Afghanistan but they have won.
 
I love your optimism. Your posts in this thread have been very informative too, cheers.

Do you follow this topic closely for any particular reason? And are there any good books you can recommend to give somebody a basic grounding in the events taking place over there at present?
 

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Should be added the Assad regime has and already is negotiating peace terms for the least worst of the worst rebels on a neighborhood by neighborhood basis.

Classic CI tactics, same as the Yanks used in Anbar in 06/07 except the Assad people don't have to pay them off.
 
Smiling Buddha said:
I love your optimism. Your posts in this thread have been very informative too, cheers.

Do you follow this topic closely for any particular reason? And are there any good books you can recommend to give somebody a basic grounding in the events taking place over there at present?
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I spent some time in Syria, so am interested for that, but mainly love this stuff - the "great game".

I entirely agree with you when you talk about the US neo con strategy of 9/11sih ... "the road to Tehran runs through Damascus" ... that kind of stuff.

But I don't agree with you on the whole US runs the world thing. FFS, Russia just occupied the Crimea without really firing shot. They may go crazy and actually invade the eastern Ukraine but even then, that proves my point, the US is seen as so weak the Russians will have a go.

In terms of books on Syria, nah, no idea. Twitter is where it is at ... Syria Deeply, Joshua Landis ... and all the crazy links to people on the ground theyv re-Tweet.
 
MaddAdam said:
But I don't agree with you on the whole US runs the world thing. FFS, Russia just occupied the Crimea without really firing shot. They may go crazy and actually invade the eastern Ukraine but even then, that proves my point, the US is seen as so weak the Russians will have a go.
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That is one way of looking at it.

Another is that even with Crimea (which the US would have surely expected the Russians would never give up so easily; the 'annexation' was an obvious outcome of what the US pulled off in Kiev) the Russians have still lost a vast swathe of crucial buffer land. Even if the Russians claim Donetsk and Kharkiv, they have still lost hundreds of kilometres of buffer, and the southern border of Belarus is now entirely vulnerable.

Not to mention that this has put a huge dent in Putin's 'Customs Union' plan, which Hillary said some time ago the US would do all it could to stop.

I have been very impressed with how Russia have played this but I don't see it as the win that you do.
 
Smiling Buddha said:
That is one way of looking at it.

Another is that even with Crimea (which the US would have surely expected the Russians would never give up so easily; the 'annexation' was an obvious outcome of what the US pulled off in Kiev) the Russians have still lost a vast swathe of crucial buffer land. Even if the Russians claim Donetsk and Kharkiv, they have still lost hundreds of kilometres of buffer, and the southern border of Belarus is now entirely vulnerable.

Not to mention that this has put a huge dent in Putin's 'Customs Union' plan, which Hillary said some time ago the US would do all it could to stop.

I have been very impressed with how Russia have played this but I don't see it as the win that you do.
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its ports and zbigniuw brzezinski's grand chessboard. he could check bobby fischer in three moves.

I have a conspiracy for MaddAdam ?

Is Bobby Fischer really Dick (Richard) Fuld of Lehmann bros. They are spitting images. Like the Febey twins, but better affal players.
 
I was in Syria in June 2010. Heres the mentality of the country as I understood it.
There are many factions in Syria. Kurds, Shiaa, Sunni, Catholics, Alawites, Druze. A bit like Iraq.
Why pre 2011 Syria was one of the most strongest and most stable countries was because Asaad like his father before him controled the country. Like a form of dictatorship but it worked for the country.
Like Sadaam had Iraq before the invasion. Sure they do some bad but the country was controlled. When you have so many groups on the brink of wanting to be the 'power' its the only form of governance that will work in the arab world.
Now my takings from when I was there was that the country wanted to become more westernised. More freedom. Generations rebel. Its what young people do. And this is what Syrians wanted. Be more like Lebanon.
Unfortunately when any form of uprising occurs is Al Quaeda and Israel who only have to throw a stone for the ripples to occur.
Blame of bombings on different groups, turning Sunnis against Alawites, Shiaa against Sunni, recruiting young men to fight for a cause, putting a gun in a childs hand.
Bashar was no saint but hes a smart man. He tried to put a hold to it. As usual the West and Israel dont like seeing a strong arab country. See Egypt, Lybia, Iraq, Palestine, Lebanon etc. All weak. Weakness is control. Weakness means no hope. Syria was the next target. Iran will be soon.
Unfortunately what not many realised was how strong Syria was and the links to Russia and China supported that. Bashar is no mug. He is a very intelligent man. A man who lives, not so an honest life, but a life as good as he can for prolonged peace in his country is what a nation like Syria needed. Sure the Sunnis hated an Alawite being in charge of their country but it worked.
Syria will rebuild. Slowly but surely. The issue is though how to weed out all the little factions and spot fires that are now there. Itll take time but the last 3 years have been horrific.
 
yeah, why the salafi wahhabi sunni sect got their back up over the last decade is anyones guess. the twin towers plane bombing might have just been the tipping point, but it took a few decades post the ussr's withdrawal from afghanistan and the first gulf war and bases in saud, for the damn to build, then burst.
 
tazaa said:
I was in Syria in June 2010. Heres the mentality of the country as I understood it.
There are many factions in Syria. Kurds, Shiaa, Sunni, Catholics, Alawites, Druze. A bit like Iraq.
Why pre 2011 Syria was one of the most strongest and most stable countries was because Asaad like his father before him controled the country. Like a form of dictatorship but it worked for the country.
Like Sadaam had Iraq before the invasion. Sure they do some bad but the country was controlled. When you have so many groups on the brink of wanting to be the 'power' its the only form of governance that will work in the arab world.
Now my takings from when I was there was that the country wanted to become more westernised. More freedom. Generations rebel. Its what young people do. And this is what Syrians wanted. Be more like Lebanon.
Unfortunately when any form of uprising occurs is Al Quaeda and Israel who only have to throw a stone for the ripples to occur.
Blame of bombings on different groups, turning Sunnis against Alawites, Shiaa against Sunni, recruiting young men to fight for a cause, putting a gun in a childs hand.
Bashar was no saint but hes a smart man. He tried to put a hold to it. As usual the West and Israel dont like seeing a strong arab country. See Egypt, Lybia, Iraq, Palestine, Lebanon etc. All weak. Weakness is control. Weakness means no hope. Syria was the next target. Iran will be soon.
Unfortunately what not many realised was how strong Syria was and the links to Russia and China supported that. Bashar is no mug. He is a very intelligent man. A man who lives, not so an honest life, but a life as good as he can for prolonged peace in his country is what a nation like Syria needed. Sure the Sunnis hated an Alawite being in charge of their country but it worked.
Syria will rebuild. Slowly but surely. The issue is though how to weed out all the little factions and spot fires that are now there. Itll take time but the last 3 years have been horrific.
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Great post, I was there at almost exactly the same time.

If you asked me what it would be like nearly four years later I would have said, like you, more like Lebanon, or more accurately Dubai ... no elections, but more economic and personal freedom.

Agreed on Bashar. The war is a horrible, horrible dirty thing but if I had to choose a side, I'd say Bashar.

If only because when I was in Damascus, a few times I just went and had a beer or two by myself in this little joint in the Chtistian quarter run by a chick from western Sydney.

She'd be there in just jeans and a tshirt as you would at a bar here. Nobody else in there but me, we'd sit and have a good yack.

If the jihadis of whatever stripe win, there'll be no more uncovered women selling beers to guys who aren't their husband or relative.

That said, I can't see the jihadis winning.

I reckon Assad's next step will be to offer the secular FSA type rebels an amnesty/join forcesd to fight the jihadis. Which the FSA types will accept because at the moment they are getting it both ways from Assad and the jihadis. That won't actually make much a military difference but it will send a huhe psychological message to the rest of the country.

I think you'll see more and more of the very conservative but no Al Qaeda let alone ISIS Sunnis turning on the jihadis too - "sawha" whatever they cal it, "Awakening" like in Anbar in 06/07.

No side will ever be strong enough to win a clear knockout blow like say the Sri Lankans did to the Tamil Tigers, But Assad certainly has the momentum and wiuld be aiming to gain more ground and divide the rebels even further before agreeing to peace talks where'll be able to set the agenda.

All that said, he needs to reduce ghe intensity of the fighting a fair bit and soon. The regular army has worn significant casualties and has been fighting without break for years. Hezbollah have provided invaluable help but they are getting oversretched too. There's a near limitless supply of eager young Iraqi and Iranian Shi'a volunteers but they are no match in quality for regular SAA troops let alone the Hezbollah Special Forces units.

All sides could do with a breather.
 

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MaddAdam said:
Great post, I was there at almost exactly the same time.

If you asked me what it would be like nearly four years later I would have said, like you, more like Lebanon, or more accurately Dubai ... no elections, but more economic and personal freedom.

Agreed on Bashar. The war is a horrible, horrible dirty thing but if I had to choose a side, I'd say Bashar.

If only because when I was in Damascus, a few times I just went and had a beer or two by myself in this little joint in the Chtistian quarter run by a chick from western Sydney.

She'd be there in just jeans and a tshirt as you would at a bar here. Nobody else in there but me, we'd sit and have a good yack.

If the jihadis of whatever stripe win, there'll be no more uncovered women selling beers to guys who aren't their husband or relative.

That said, I can't see the jihadis winning.

I reckon Assad's next step will be to offer the secular FSA type rebels an amnesty/join forcesd to fight the jihadis. Which the FSA types will accept because at the moment they are getting it both ways from Assad and the jihadis. That won't actually make much a military difference but it will send a huhe psychological message to the rest of the country.

I think you'll see more and more of the very conservative but no Al Qaeda let alone ISIS Sunnis turning on the jihadis too - "sawha" whatever they cal it, "Awakening" like in Anbar in 06/07.

No side will ever be strong enough to win a clear knockout blow like say the Sri Lankans did to the Tamil Tigers, But Assad certainly has the momentum and wiuld be aiming to gain more ground and divide the rebels even further before agreeing to peace talks where'll be able to set the agenda.

All that said, he needs to reduce ghe intensity of the fighting a fair bit and soon. The regular army has worn significant casualties and has been fighting without break for years. Hezbollah have provided invaluable help but they are getting oversretched too. There's a near limitless supply of eager young Iraqi and Iranian Shi'a volunteers but they are no match in quality for regular SAA troops let alone the Hezbollah Special Forces units.

All sides could do with a breather.
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I got the feeling like there was a tug of war going on at the time. Never in my wildest dreams would I imagine that 7 or 8 months after my departure would all out war break out. Alas the arab mind is one for rational and irrational thought. So as to not confuse you after crossing from Lebanon I was dumbfounded at how out of touch with the little things they were. I asked is there wifi? Sorry. Banned. Leaving my room on a 40 degree day, I was stopped. Brother you cannot wear shorts. They believe you to be gay. Okay. Speaking to a cab driver I asked, what are your thoughts on Bashar Al Asaad? SHHH. Do not say his name.
All these little things I experience I thought surely theyll become more westernised. It didnt leave a positive impression as a tourist but I thought the US and the Jews cant penetrate these guys yet. There doing something right. Good on em for being tough bastards. Respect.
But the youth knew what the world had to offer. Like any oppressed generation they were fooled into rebellion and it has destroyed their country by creating weaknesses against outside influences that were for decades blocked. Shame really. Syrias defence was brought down by enthusiasm. Youthful exuberance that enemies would do there dirty work through. Like dipping rags in paint and tying them to a bunch of cars. Itll spread everywhere eventually.

But for all the fanaticism that was supposedly evident in Syria, like a Thailand or Bali or Dubai it was quite laxed if you wanted to have a beer, go to a party or enjoy yourself in other western ways. Bashar and the Syrian people were not all hardarses thats for sure. You could do stuff.

Syrias path of progression was not one of total fanatical muslim state like the Emirates, but one of a more European feel. Respectful of cultures and religions. Really is a waste the past 3 years.

Assaad needs to in any way or form plug the holes and steadily rebuild the country to its pre war state. Tough bloody ask but for every year a country is at war it takes 3 more years to rebuild. Syria will take a decade to come back.

Unfortunately some groups have no appreciation for life and these will prove the hardest obstacles.
For those who dont follow, if your family was wiped out and you had no money or belongings, what reason to live do you stand for? What purpose? None. These men would rather give their lives for a stupid cause to be with Allah than rebuild and face lifes greater tests. Unfortunately many of us will never understand the sight of constant death and how that will change our mentality. A knowledge Id much rather be without.
 
tazaa - did you go to Krak De Chevaliers when you were there?
 
MaddAdam said:
I think you'll see more and more of the very conservative but no Al Qaeda let alone ISIS Sunnis turning on the jihadis too - "sawha" whatever they cal it, "Awakening" like in Anbar in 06/07.
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but Awakening was paying off (see:bribing) the sunni insurgents to lay down their arms whilst the cash spigot from uncle sam gushed
 
tazaa said:
But for all the fanaticism that was supposedly evident in Syria, like a Thailand or Bali or Dubai it was quite laxed if you wanted to have a beer, go to a party or enjoy yourself in other western ways. Bashar and the Syrian people were not all hardarses thats for sure. You could do stuff.
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as the cia say
want em disappeared, egypt
want em tortured, damascus
 
blackcat said:
but Awakening was paying off (see:bribing) the sunni insurgents to lay down their arms whilst the cash spigot from uncle sam gushed
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Not all of it.
 
blackcat said:
well 100% of Barry's and Petraeus the good general, Petraeus' surge was BS for public domestic consumption for mccain and palin to eat up
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I mean on the ground in Anbar. The US had been trying to buy the tribes off from day one. They only came to the party wehen they themselves got sick of foreigners coming in and telling them they were kufr - despite the tribes of Anbar being among the most conservative adherents to Sunni Islam there is.

Jabhat has learned the lessons of Anbar and act accordingly in Syria.

ISIS haven't, hence the attacks on ISIS.
 
MaddAdam said:
tazaa - did you go to Krak De Chevaliers when you were there?
Click to expand...
As I was departing Lebanon to enter Syria the immigration official said to me as an Australian passport holder I was only entitled to stay 3 days in the country otherwise Id would not be let out of the country if I overstayed my welcome.
I arrived midnight and stayed in Homs. The next day I did a bit of sightseeing. Not sure if it was the icecream I ate or the meat pizza but I fell violently ill that evening. To the point of throwing up the mucus that was in my body. All this whilst Australia was playing Ghana and I was in and out of conciousness. A local doctor visited me jabbed me with whatever it was he had in his vial, straight in the ass cheek and I was cherry ripe. This experience led me to pronounce unfounded profanities against the country due to my plight, some to which people wryly lay blame on myself the plight the Syrians find themselves in today.
That day like a raver on the end of his 8 hour shift I did visit Krak De Chevaliers. I think my poor health and mental state at the time I didnt appreciate my visit and considered jumping off a few of the ledges at the time. As a tour guide kept repeating the famous ramadan TV show Beb-el-Hara was filmed at Krak De Chevaliers. Must of been popular.
The next day I visited Damascus which I must say when historians say it is the oldest civilised city in the world, they are not wrong and it does feel that way. Like your walking through time but in the 21st century.
Dare I say it I could not wait to depart Syria as my poor health blinded my whole experience. Entering Lebanon was like salvation and I had never been more happy. Could not even care about the dirty looks I got when the immigration official said we were geed about the 3 day visit and could stay much longer. I took this as a hand of god. A test that I could not pass.
 
blackcat said:
think maddadam already linked to the original London Book Reviewor review of books
i think i had seen Hersh do promo just before or after it hit the press, or the binary
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Apologies, missed that.

Have heard rumours re US and UK special forces in Lebanon, taking on (not so well apparently) Hezbollah
 
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