Teams you think will definitely not make the 8

[Mningasimisonda]

lost two games to teams in the certainty bracket (and forced a team clubs have struggled to beat for the best part of a year to fight for a win).
Touch more than likely at this stage we make it.
We're being talked about as likely top 4. I think top 8 is ours barring a 2013 repeat where we have to be removed

Agree. Essendon are a very good team with very good players and Bomber Thompson as their coach. They lost to the Hawks (probably should've won it) and to Freo in Freo. The 2-2 record so far this season is misleading. They don't play Hawthorn or Freo again and with the way they are playing, the only other team that I'd tip to beat them is Geelong.

 

[citizen-erased]

Agree. Essendon are a very good team with very good players and Bomber Thompson as their coach. They lost to the Hawks (probably should've won it) and to Freo in Freo. The 2-2 record so far this season is misleading. They don't play Hawthorn or Freo again and with the way they are playing, the only other team that I'd tip to beat them is Geelong.

Swans in Sydney is a tough one for us. And they have time to get back into form......plus they have buddy too.

 

[Substance]

Nah no chance we will beat you

we'll be favs, but surely you guys are some chance to beat us?

 

[Bailey01]

we'll be favs, but surely you guys are some chance to beat us?

Haha nah were getting in some form at the moment, should be a good game

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

Certainty:

Hawthorn
Geelong
Fremantle

Should make it from here:

North Melbourne
Port Adelaide

In the mix:

Collingwood
Sydney
Richmond
West Coast
Gold Coast
Adelaide

No chance:

Bulldogs
GWS Giants
St Kilda
Melbourne
Brisbane
Carlton
Essendon

 

[HBF]

Can't see Richmond making it after 5 rounds. Yes they got on top of Brisbane last night, but I just don't think they have the talent to play finals this year. At this very early stage, I think this is how it might pan out:

Hawthorn
Fremantle
Geelong
Port
North Melbourne
Essendon
Collingwood
Adelaide

 

[docko911]

We are pretty s**t... but for some reason we could still slip into the 8 even if we can't knock off Hawthorn or Geelong.

You'll only need 11-12 wins with the amount of teams in the middle.

Reckon these games could be a benefit to us if we somehow find form
Melbourne, GWS x 2, St Kilda x 2, Brisbane (again), Sydney x 2 (ANZ not SCG), Essendon late in the season and Adelaide.

Hardest games are
North and Port at Etihad, West Coast over there, Essendon round 11 and Fremantle at the MCG.

Our current form will only see us win 8-10 but anything could happen so 9th is looking very likely!

As for the rest of the league

Lock it in
Hawthorn
Geelong
Fremantle

Something would need to go wrong
North Melbourne
Port Adelaide

Should be there but ???
Collingwood
Essendon
West Coast

Signs point to no...
Sydney
Richmond
Adelaide
Gold Coast
Western Bulldogs
St Kilda

Sorry Guys!
GWS
Melbourne
Brisbane
Carlton

 

[fishardansin]

Don't ever change Barry.

 

[Rod Stroker]

Can't see Richmond making it after 5 rounds. Yes they got on top of Brisbane last night, but I just don't think they have the talent to play finals this year.

After 7 rounds they will be 2-5 with a poor percentage, their wins coming against the bottom 2 teams. They're done.

Such a staggering fall given 5 games ago they were leading a final at 3QT.

 

[ep2018]

So Port beat three cellar dwellers and they're top 4 now?

 

[HBF]

After 7 rounds they will be 2-5 with a poor percentage, their wins coming against the bottom 2 teams. They're done.

Such a staggering fall given 5 games ago they were leading a final at 3QT.

Agree with all of that.
What is more alarming for Richmond that of last nights game, only Deledio, Maric and Rance were missing from their best 22.

And on a side note - the second half of that EF last year was as close to footballing perfection for a Carlton supporter.

 

[_DBF_]

Agree with all of that.
What is more alarming for Richmond that of last nights game, only Deledio, Maric and Rance were missing from their best 22.

And on a side note - the second half of that EF last year was as close to footballing perfection for a Carlton supporter.

They aren't just 3 of our best 22. They are 3 of our top 6.

 

[HBF]

They aren't just 3 of our best 22. They are 3 of our top 6.

My point being that Richmond don't have the depth of other clubs fighting out for those clubs fighting it out for places 5-8.

 

[_DBF_]

My point being that Richmond don't have the depth of other clubs fighting out for those clubs fighting it out for places 5-8.

I can agree with that.

 

[emuboy]

Melbourne, St Kilda, GWS Giants, Richmond & Brisbane - Definitely Not.

Bulldogs & Carlton are doubtful, but could surprise if they hit form consistently, and another team fell away.

 

[militiaa]

If I had to pick 8 AFL teams that will NOT make the finals in order to live, the following would be:

1 Richmond
2 Carlton
3 Melbourne
4 GWS
5 St Kilda
6 Brisbane
7 Bulldogs
8 Gold Coast

So lets see and find out whether or not I live through September

 

[AM]

Geez! Some really early calls here. Even as a Cat I'm not overly confident about the final four. Don't reckon we've played a serious contender yet. The next few weeks will give us a clearer picture and I dare say that applies to a few others as well.

 

[Scotland]

Brisbane and Melbourne are zero chance. Not much argument from anyone there.

Carlton lose this week and they join that boat. They are odds on for a bottom 6 finish, but if by some miracle they start playing properly they can actually beat decent sides.

I wouldn't be ruling a line through anyone else just yet. 3rd through 15th is a mixture of underperformers and overperformers, and no one really stands out. Hard to get a decent gauge on anything after 4 rounds.

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

Don't ever change Barry.

I got called a deluded offended flog when I made the exact same prediction last year.

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

After 7 rounds they will be 2-5 with a poor percentage, their wins coming against the bottom 2 teams. They're done.

Or you could go two games further and say they'll be 4-5. Maybe wait and see what happens first.

 

[fishardansin]

I got called a deluded offended flog when I made the exact same prediction last year.

That was on the basis of "governance" and "rule 106" which are fairly subjective. You do realise you're calling on facts to be proven here, this is a lot harder to do.

 

[Vindicater]

They aren't just 3 of our best 22. They are 3 of our top 6.

Rance is top 6???

Holy god I did not realise Richmond were so ordinary.

 

[militiaa]

Rance is top 6???

Holy god I did not realise Richmond were so ordinary.

Really?

 

[EBCantona]

I'll add Richmond to the teams that will definitely not make it, they are really bad.

 

[fishardansin]

The next two games are make or break for Richmond. Either they lose both and are out of it or they win both and would become near certainties considering the form they would carry out of those games. Even if they play well and lose both it's too far behind the ledger for them to come back. If they jag one I think I'm still on the fence leaning to missing.

Truth is that Hawthorn, Freo, Geelong, North, Essendon, Port, Collingwood, Weagles and doggies all look superior to them this year. It's a hard road back from here and Sydney, Adelaide and Gold Coast are also out of that top 9 I listed and probably more likely to "turn it around".