Nostradamus Lives Tex to stay, Dangerfield to leave

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Covering all the bases for Danger's big announcement...

tumblr_ne0k8yaD8g1qd5mq1o1_1280.jpg
 
Grave Danger said:
eeny: waiting to see who the new coach will be
meeny: going, but delaying the announcement out of respect for Phil Walsh
miney: staying, but hanging out for more $$/loving the drama of it all
mo: still hasn't make up his mind
Click to expand...

AFL "Journalism", circa 2015.
 
West coast fans offer counselling to crows fans when danger leaves

Judd left and life went on ........call 1800-Judd left
 

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A lot of interesting opinions here. What I think:
  • A superstar trade (if this happens) is always overrated in impact. Look at Buddy, Ablett, Judd. How many flags have they won since switching clubs? Part of it is the value for the receiving club is overrated due to competition for his signature. Geelong will have to pay megabucks which impacts on their payments to the rest of the list into the future.
  • Geelong (with or without Danger) will probably not make the 8 in the next few years. Danger has value now. Possibly the worst club he could choose is Geelong (except Carlton). A club on the upswing is where he should go to add the match winning icing to the cake (Bullies, Richmond, even Collingwood or Saints). Better still if he wants success stay where he is.
  • Adelaide will finish above Geelong next year regardless of whether he stays or goes.
My views are partly formed by being a Hawk supporter and seeing how their recruitment of players has worked well in the last 6 years - recruit to fill a role and take someone you can get for unders (Silk, Hale, Lake etc, not so sure about Frawley). Also our payment structure helps. It's not about the quality of your best player, it's about guys ranked 18-25 on the list. That's why it's better to own 2 of those Jordan Lewis or Mundy or Sloane types than 1 Gary Ablett or Dangerfield. The game overvalues the contribution that the megastars can make to a team in most circumstances. One situation (short term) where it might work is when it means the difference between a flag and coming 2nd, 3rd or 4th. That's not describing Geelong in 2016 though.
 
Sydney Kicker said:
A lot of interesting opinions here. What I think:
  • A superstar trade (if this happens) is always overrated in impact. Look at Buddy, Ablett, Judd. How many flags have they won since switching clubs? Part of it is the value for the receiving club is overrated due to competition for his signature. Geelong will have to pay megabucks which impacts on their payments to the rest of the list into the future.
  • Geelong (with or without Danger) will probably not make the 8 in the next few years. Danger has value now. Possibly the worst club he could choose is Geelong (except Carlton). A club on the upswing is where he should go to add the match winning icing to the cake (Bullies, Richmond, even Collingwood or Saints). Better still if he wants success stay where he is.
  • Adelaide will finish above Geelong next year regardless of whether he stays or goes.
My views are partly formed by being a Hawk supporter and seeing how their recruitment of players has worked well in the last 6 years - recruit to fill a role and take someone you can get for unders (Silk, Hale, Lake etc, not so sure about Frawley). Also our payment structure helps. It's not about the quality of your best player, it's about guys ranked 18-25 on the list. That's why it's better to own 2 of those Jordan Lewis or Mundy or Sloane types than 1 Gary Ablett or Dangerfield. The game overvalues the contribution that the megastars can make to a team in most circumstances. One situation (short term) where it might work is when it means the difference between a flag and coming 2nd, 3rd or 4th. That's not describing Geelong in 2016 though.
Click to expand...

1, he'd come as a free agent and not a trade (or well unders), and 2, he won't be paid big bucks but what he would have been worth had he been a Geelong player.
 
Catatonic Shock said:
1, he'd come as a free agent and not a trade (or well unders), and 2, he won't be paid big bucks but what he would have been worth had he been a Geelong player.
Click to expand...
None of this is correct. Adelaide will match any offer, and it will take a massive offer like 1.4M to stop them from doing so. So trade will be necessary. And it seems Henderson will cost a first rounder. How do Geelong pay for Patrick in a trade then? You can't. Hence, he will stay.
 
Catatonic Shock said:
1, he'd come as a free agent and not a trade (or well unders), and 2, he won't be paid big bucks but what he would have been worth had he been a Geelong player.
Click to expand...

Free agent or not, and regardless of whether Adelaide match the Geelong offer, does he really want to move home so much he would be willing to play for geelong on less pay than he could get in a side with more chance of winning a flag? I though he said the chance of success was a major motivator for him. Sorry but I don't believe it.
 
His Manager has said on two separate occasions that it either PD staying in Adelaide or playing for Geelong there will be no other clubs involved so all other supporters can say what they like.

FAact is that its Adelaide or Geelong and if the Geelong offer a ridiculous amount like 1.4 million there is no way Adelaide can match that

Before Crows fans get in and say what about the Geelong pay structure go and watch Brian Cook on the couch interview they were prepared to off G.Ablett double what the next guy was getting to Keep him.

So they WILL go outside the structure if it meant getting PD
 
Son_Of_God29 said:
His Manager has said on two separate occasions that it either PD staying in Adelaide or playing for Geelong there will be no other clubs involved so all other supporters can say what they like.
Click to expand...
Well if his manager said it, then it must be true :rolleyes:
 
Cleric said:
Danger said he wanted to go to a team that would offer finals opportunities. Not sure why he would then want to go to Geelong. If he is a man of his word he wont.
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You're so 2014, Patrick changed his reason for leaving early this year when Geelong didn't look like playing finals to "lifestyle over hobby" remember?
 
1990crow said:
You dont take losing very well do you.
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Haven't had much experience of it over the past 250 games. I'll leave it to an expert in the matter such as yourself to inform a supporter base as to how they should approach the matter?
 
1990crow said:
None of this is correct. Adelaide will match any offer, and it will take a massive offer like 1.4M to stop them from doing so. So trade will be necessary. And it seems Henderson will cost a first rounder. How do Geelong pay for Patrick in a trade then? You can't. Hence, he will stay.
Click to expand...

Sure, 1.4mil over 2 years.
Then a massive drop over 3-4 years so it evens out at around 800-850k a year, ergo, what he would be on if he was always a Geelong player.
Believe me, and I've said it elsewhere, Geelong WILL NOT sell the farm in a trade to get him, they are after him moreso BECAUSE he is a FA, they also don't believe the Crows will match.
 
Catatonic Shock said:
Sure, 1.4mil over 2 years.
Then a massive drop over 3-4 years so it evens out at around 800-850k a year, ergo, what he would be on if he was always a Geelong player.
Believe me, and I've said it elsewhere, Geelong WILL NOT sell the farm in a trade to get him, they are after him moreso BECAUSE he is a FA, they also don't believe the Crows will match.
Click to expand...

Stop saying this. Geelong can't guarantee this without it being in a contract, and if that's the case, the Crows only need to match the total value of the contract over the same contract life. 5 million over 6 years. I imagine the Crows would jump at that.

Or are you inferring that Geelong are going to have an undocumented "gentleman's agreement" with PD for years 3-6? Can't imagine any problem there when you get around to lodging that second contract with the AFL and his pay miraculously halves.
 
MattyB_76 said:
Stop saying this. Geelong can't guarantee this without it being in a contract, and if that's the case, the Crows only need to match the total value of the contract over the same contract life. 5 million over 6 years. I imagine the Crows would jump at that.

Or are you inferring that Geelong are going to have an undocumented "gentleman's agreement" with PD for years 3-6? Can't imagine any problem there when you get around to lodging that second contract with the AFL and his pay miraculously halves.
Click to expand...

Has to be same terms...
Exactly the same.
Same base payments.
Same length.
Same ASA's.
Same incentives.
Same.
 
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