The 2015 Attendance Thread

[dave_27]

the "G" with their absurd prediction of 55K ignored that basic reality.

Yep, I think theyre also off the mark tonight too with there prediction.

Cold, wet night I think the crowd will be closer to 50k or less rather than 60k.

Imo there will be abit less of tigers fans as last week given the weather at night and how easy they're expected to win and essendon supporters well I honestly don't know how many is going to turn up with Hird gone, its not going to help the attendance that's for sure.

 

[sverik25]

I was at the game last night, and last night was probably the smallest Collingwood turn out I've seen for an MCG match since 2009, and I wouldn't be surprised if it was the smallest since 2005 (the last time Collingwood finished bottom 4).

 

[AstuteTiger]

Collingwood should again be no 1 in 2015, with Richmond and Hawthorn 2nd and 3rd.

Great spreadsheets Manic very in depth.....

I think if the Tiges/Bombers pull 50k+ tonight then Richmond will be No 1 for attendances this year, MCC expect 60K but dont think it will hit that, A) ess's form and B) weather, however 50-55K will be around the mark, anything more will be a welcome bonus...

Tiges could very well be 15K or more ahead of Pies going into the last round and the last game against North next Friday night @ Etihad will hit at least 45K, bombers V pies on fathers day 3.20pm would need to hit 60k+ and i dont see that happening...

 

[dave10]

This is a classic case in point proving what you say.

The two most recent late season meetings between the teams were as follows

2011: 1st VS 2nd. Massive drawcard pumped by form for both....85,705 blockbuster.

2012: 7th VS 4th. Both still good competitive sides. 61,717. No blocks being busted but a good turnout.

2015 Collingwood having a disappointing and fruitless year and Geelong hanging on by one broken fingernail and they draw 40K.

This is NOT a comment on either Geelong, Collingwood or both of them. It is an illustration of the folly of taking attendance stats for a fixture when both are top 4 and contending for flag favouritism and supposing that such stats in any way suggest a par. Even the "G" with their absurd prediction of 55K ignored that basic reality.

Further to this, the crowd was very poor but probably a reflection of where each club was at. In addition, it appeared so very flat watching on TV.

In keeping this theme, surely tonight's game will only draw 45-50,000. At best 25,000 Essendon fans will go, a little more than if it were at Ethihad.

Last week the Tigers were probably represented by 30-35,000 at the G as the away team. That was on a glorious Sat afternoon in perfect weather at a match that had 'some' impetus to it for both teams. For the Tigers fans it was still worth attending for these reasons.

Tonight, cold and probably wet, a totally dead rubber, unfavourable time slot compared to last week, it's hard to see even 75% if those Tigers fans last week going tonight.

My prediction: 47,000.

 

[dave10]

I was at the game last night, and last night was probably the smallest Collingwood turn out I've seen for an MCG match since 2009, and I wouldn't be surprised if it was the smallest since 2005 (the last time Collingwood finished bottom 4).

How many to next Sundays dead rubber late on Sunday, Father's Day Coll V Ess?? I will suggest the Fathers a Day factor alone is -25%. My early call: 38 000.

Every ingredient imaginable in place to see it become the worst Coll V Ess crowd in 25 - 30 years.

 

[Rob]

This game proves that, in Melbourne at least, form is by far the biggest factor impacting on crowds.

Just in Melbourne? It's everywhere.

 

[manicmagpie]

Great spreadsheets Manic very in depth.....

I think if the Tiges/Bombers pull 50k+ tonight then Richmond will be No 1 for attendances this year, MCC expect 60K but dont think it will hit that, A) ess's form and B) weather, however 50-55K will be around the mark, anything more will be a welcome bonus...

Tiges could very well be 15K or more ahead of Pies going into the last round and the last game against North next Friday night @ Etihad will hit at least 45K, bombers V pies on fathers day 3.20pm would need to hit 60k+ and i dont see that happening...

Yeah I agree, I was referring to 'away' crowds.

 

[dave_27]

Completely hosing down, 40k - 45k at most tonight.

Should still be enough to hand Richmond the highest overall attendance for the year.

 

[Fletched]

Just in Melbourne? It's everywhere.

West coast and Freo's crowds hardly change depending on form

 

[WagonBang]

Hawthorn v Brisbane: 11,731

GWS v Carlton: 9,538

 

[Rouel_14]

Meanwhile we have 2 Victorian teams that are up to their neck in finals and they can't even pull 40000.

Victoria shouldn't be worried about smaller crowds from pies, dons and blues, but the lack of supporters full stop for these smaller clubs.

 

[sverik25]

Meanwhile we have 2 Victorian teams that are up to their neck in finals and they can't even pull 40000.

Victoria shouldn't be worried about smaller crowds from pies, dons and blues, but the lack of supporters full stop for these smaller clubs.

Yes, but:



They weren't playing for a spot in the finals, really there wasn't that much on the line.

 

[dave10]

Yes, but:



They weren't playing for a spot in the finals, really there wasn't that much on the line.

I actually think that's a sensational crowd. One if the top 10 crowds of the year. Or thereabouts...

 

[Rouel_14]

Bombers and Tigers probably the most disappointing crowd of the year!
Could the rain really deter nearly half of what was expected ?!

 

[Rob]

West coast and Freo's crowds hardly change depending on form

Only because the ground is pretty much sold out before the season even starts.

 

[dave10]

Bombers and Tigers probably the most disappointing crowd of the year!
Could the rain really deter nearly half of what was expected ?!

It was never going to draw 60,000. The rain probably stopped it from going beating 45/47,000. In the end, unless you were totally dedicated, or stupid, this was a dead rubber on a soggy wet night that wasn't going to pull a crowd.

Why would an Essendon supporter go? To see off Chappy? He wasn't a club great like Fletcher so his appeal wasn't a great drawing factor. An Irishman? That had me a little more interested. Another likely thrashing? No thanks.

In the circumstances it was no surprise it drew so poorly.

 

[gaelictiogar]

Essendon V Richmond was an atrocious crowd.

I realise all the background but I didn't realise just how disillusioned Essendon fans have become and the Richmond turnout to a last G game before finals was awful....awful.

I have never seen so few Essendon at a game at the G. Yes it was raining and cold and a dead rubber and they expected a hiding. I do realise but Essendon never ever drop below 20,000 at a game. You can bet your house that Essendon will turn up in numbers.....til tonight.

Richmond? Shocking that Richmond can be going into finals and be deserted because of rain. The single worst crowd of the year for anyone at any venue.

 

[bgt2110]

Essendon struggle to kick 9 or 10 goals in the dry, why bother turning up to watch them kick 5 or 6 in the wet.

 

[Marley10]

Essendon V Richmond was an atrocious crowd.

I realise all the background but I didn't realise just how disillusioned Essendon fans have become and the Richmond turnout to a last G game before finals was awful....awful.

I have never seen so few Essendon at a game at the G. Yes it was raining and cold and a dead rubber and they expected a hiding. I do realise but Essendon never ever drop below 20,000 at a game. You can bet your house that Essendon will turn up in numbers.....til tonight.

Richmond? Shocking that Richmond can be going into finals and be deserted because of rain. The single worst crowd of the year for anyone at any venue.

It's not surprising to be honest. There isn't much to like about Essendon at all at the moment. It's cold and has been raining the whole day. Richmond belted Collingwood and we lost to the suns. Yep definitely a pass for most supporters.

Richmond supporters really didn't rock up today either.

Thing is, when the results are so predictable, people won't bother coming and the Tigers proved that today as well. We've seen this with Hawthorn for the last couple of years.

If you think this one is shocking, not sure what next week will bring. Only thing that can save it is Fletcher's retirement.

 

[dave10]

Essendon V Richmond was an atrocious crowd.

I realise all the background but I didn't realise just how disillusioned Essendon fans have become and the Richmond turnout to a last G game before finals was awful....awful.

I have never seen so few Essendon at a game at the G. Yes it was raining and cold and a dead rubber and they expected a hiding. I do realise but Essendon never ever drop below 20,000 at a game. You can bet your house that Essendon will turn up in numbers.....til tonight.

Richmond? Shocking that Richmond can be going into finals and be deserted because of rain. The single worst crowd of the year for anyone at any venue.

I think your being a bit hard on the Tiger fans... Why would they spend $25 and go tonight? Dedicated ones aside. Maybe given our year I am not seeing the Tiger aspect through clear lenses but if I barracked for Richmond I wouldn't have bothered tonight. Too easy to relax at home and stay warm than go to a wet MCG and watch a dreary meaningless match against a VFL side and pay to see it.

In not to dissimilar circumstances, the Pies fans stayed away last night on a relatively fine Friday night. It's just been the perfect storm in a way this year. Once your done, your done. Ask Carlton fans.

The Essendon situation was as predicted. In fine conditions you could only imagine 20-25,000 of them going tonight. In the wet tonight even less. I didn't bother going. I have only missed 2 Melbourne based games this year. But with rain falling, 10c and that awful 'funeral' like feeling you only get when your year can't end fast with two rounds left, this wasn't overly appealing. I wasn't the least bit interested in going.

But if you thought tonight was bad, wait til we see what Fathers Day serves up next week. That day accounts for -10,000 before you start talking about season over, Sunday 3:20 excuses

From an Essendon perspective, as it's been for some time now, 5:50 pm next Sunday can't come quick enough. That's when the Bomber fans can close the book on this horrible chapter and ordeal and know that at least next year we will have certainty and control of our destiny whatever the outcome. The cloud that has suffocated a supporter base into submission in 2015 will disperse. And that's something we haven't had for three years. A clear road ahead and fresh start for the players, club and fans.

Good news for Essendon is not far away. Next Sunday night the nightmare will be over.

Thank God!

 

[manicmagpie]

Remarkably Richmond are now just 119 people ahead of Collingwood in the total attendance for the year going into the last round. This is going to be a lot closer than I thought.

 

[dave10]

Remarkably Richmond are now just 119 people ahead of Collingwood in the total attendance for the year going into the last round. This is going to be a lot closer than I thought.

True however I think Richmond will finish ahead by 6-7,000... In any case, it will be the lowest attendance aggregate posted by the leading club in many years.

 

[AstuteTiger]

Remarkably Richmond are now just 119 people ahead of Collingwood in the total attendance for the year going into the last round. This is going to be a lot closer than I thought.

Manic tiges are just under 1K ahead, well 992 to be exact...http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/attendances
Must say tonight the weather killed off at least 10-12K easily....next week V north should pull min 45K so it will still go down to the wire....

 

[AstuteTiger]

Essendon V Richmond was an atrocious crowd.

I realise all the background but I didn't realise just how disillusioned Essendon fans have become and the Richmond turnout to a last G game before finals was awful....awful.

I have never seen so few Essendon at a game at the G. Yes it was raining and cold and a dead rubber and they expected a hiding. I do realise but Essendon never ever drop below 20,000 at a game. You can bet your house that Essendon will turn up in numbers.....til tonight.

Richmond? Shocking that Richmond can be going into finals and be deserted because of rain. The single worst crowd of the year for anyone at any venue.

It was pretty bad all round, and Ess i agree with Dave why would they come not even worth mentioning all the reasons but the 15K "or there abouts'' that were there was perhaps the lowest i too have seen from a bombers turnout...

Our own supporters 20K+ was also very average yep its an away game and raining hard all day and cold but was hoping for 5-10K more but guess Dave explained it well enough.....

 

[manicmagpie]

True however I think Richmond will finish ahead by 6-7,000... In any case, it will be the lowest attendance aggregate posted by the leading club in many years.

It will be larger than last year's.