3 wins could get us above Port.
Opinion The 8 - still tough to reach
- Thread starter OldCrowBloke
- Start date
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Seriously we would be only a mathematical chance with 4 wins.
I'd give us a 25% chance of making it with 12 wins.
A 50% chance of making it with 13 wins but a loss to Collingwood.
A 90% chance of making it with 13 wins and a win against Collingwood.
Even if Collingwood beat us they could easily go 2-3 in their last 5, with games v Port, Hawks and WCE in Perth, leaving them on 12 wins.
Also Depends on how much of a hole the Suns fall into. Their last 6 has Port, Ess, WCE and Carlton. None of those are gimmes. If they lose to Port and Ess and to one of either WCE and Carlton they also end up on 12.
Long way to go
Also Depends on how much of a hole the Suns fall into. Their last 6 has Port, Ess, WCE and Carlton. None of those are gimmes. If they lose to Port and Ess and to one of either WCE and Carlton they also end up on 12.
Long way to go
Niximus
Brownlow Medallist
If we had 4 wins then we need Collingwood and GC to only win 3/6
Collingwood
Adelaide
Port
West Coast
Brisbane
GWS
Hawthorn
possible
GC
Brisbane
St Kilda
Carlton
Port
Essendon
WCE
They have an easier run, but may drop something unexpected without Gaz.
Lose to Collingwood and 4 would be unlikely to get us in though.
I can definitely see Brisbane knocking off CG (and the Crows unfortunately).
Niximus
Brownlow Medallist
I posted in another thread earlier with the statistics. Teams that finished 5-8 were equally likely to win a flag within the next 5 years as teams who finish 1-4.
Don't underestimate finals experience.
Port's 2 finals last year will be beneficial to them this year.
Throw any stats you want, our last five years have been 11th, 12th, 3rd, 11th. And this year 8th-10th.
Hardly indicative of winning a premiership any time soon, and is unacceptable.
Niximus
Brownlow Medallist
But SNEAKING IN TO 8TH! is not indicative of not winning a flag soon either. The only team here not to have an 8-10 finish in their run to a flag is Sydney, and they had 4 5-8 finishes (which many point at as being pointless also-ran finishes) and a 12th.
2013 - Hawthorn - 1, 3, 7, 9, 2
2012 - Sydney - 7, 5, 12, 6, 7
2011 - Geelong - 2, 2, 1, 1, 10
2010 - Collingwood - 4, 8, 6, 5, 15
2009 - Geelong - 1, 1, 10, 6, 4
2008 - Hawthorn - 5, 11, 14, 15, 9
2007 - Geelong - 10, 6, 4, 12, 9
2006 - West Coast - 2, 7, 7, 8, 14
2005 - Sydney - 6, 4, 11, 7, 10
16/45 are minor round finishes of 5th-8th
15/45 finished outside of the 8, 5 of those grabbed a top 5 draft pick.
14/45 had top 4 finishes, but 4 of those were previous year's premierships.
Niximus
Brownlow Medallist
I notice that 2 of them had 3 finishes between 5-8 in the 5 years prior to a flag, 4 of those 6 finishes were 7th or 8th.
We wouldn't have snagged top 3, but without draft concessions in '10 and '11 we would have had better picks. Even if we bottomed out in those years we still wouldn't have had top 3 picks....
Niximus
Brownlow Medallist
So in your opinion, we need to be aiming for 16-18?
Iron
Norm Smith Medallist
- May 26, 2014
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This is rubbish. Few will look back on this season as a roaring success just because we make it to a finals match. We are all disappointed that we're not contending, because that's what we were told we would be doing at the start of the year.
But if you're faced with either making the finals, or not, you'd go with the former every day of the week. One extra place up the ladder and down the draft order won't make that much of a difference.
"Papering over the cracks" is such a negative view. It's basically saying you shouldn't hope for anything because we're objectively s**t. That sort of mentality destroys club culture and is entirely counterproductive to chasing a future premiership.
Niximus
Brownlow Medallist
Who else used top 3 picks in that time?
Collingwood 2010
Melbourne - 3
Carlton - 3
Richmond - 2
West Coast - 2
Fremantle - 1
Essendon - 1
Kangaroos - 1
Collingwood - 1
Hawthorn - 1
Hawthorn 2008
Carlton - 4
Richmond - 2
Hawthorn - 2
Western Bulldogs - 2
West Coast - 1
Essendon - 1
Kangaroos - 1
Collingwood - 1
Melbourne - 1
West Coast 2006
Hawthorn - 3
Carlton - 2
Western Bulldogs - 2
St Kilda - 2
Collingwood - 1
Richmond - 1
Melbourne - 1
North Melbourne - 1
Brisbane - 1
West Coast - 1
No. But when faced with the scenario of us needing to win 5 out of our last 6 to merely sneak in to 8th, and picking blokes like Porplyzia, Rutten, Martin and Reilly, it is the wrong way to go about it.
If we make the 8 with M Crouch, L Thompson/Hartigan, Lyons and Cameron playing then that's fine. I see no point in sneaking in an irrelevant 8th with older players in our team. I would rather finish 15th with young guys playing.
As I posted before, since 2007 we have finished 8th, 8th, 6th, 11th, 12th, 3rd, 11th. And this year 8th-10th. I have had a gutful of the mediocrity that we stand for.
Don't get me wrong, for a long time I advocated the "keep pushing for 8th" attitude. But I'm done. I want a bloody premiership.
Niximus
Brownlow Medallist
Would you rather finish 12th playing kids that can't break into the side on their own, or keep a few senior players in and give the top kids that are making the first 22 some valuable finals experience?
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