The Brownlow Guru speaks again

[BrownlowGuru]

Hi all. I've got a system which I use to calculate Brownlow Medal probabilities. In a nutshell, it involves analysing all 176 games, determining the probability of individuals getting votes in that game, and then running a number of simulations for the whole season to get an idea of who's likely to win, place, top the club etc.

I've been doing this for a few years now, and had reasonable success punting with this (including posting here last year). Here are my predictions for win and place, I'll supply some of the exotics (team, quinella, H2H) later.

Below are what I have calculated to be the real odds - if you can find odds greater than those displayed (Bartel, Cooney) then they are worth a punt if you are so inclined.

WIN
Bartel J (Geel) 2.283
Harvey B (Kang) 6.321
Corey J (Geel) 6.871
Cooney A (WB) 10.324
Ablett G (Geel) 11.462
Riewoldt N (St K) 41.204
Black S (Bris) 85.859
Selwood J (Geel) 105.259
Cross D (WB) 114.565
Swan D (Coll) 209.067
Pavlich M (Fre) 220.167
Richardson M (Rich)356.782
Judd C (Carl) 377.691
Akermanis J (WB) 706.381
All others > 1000

PLACE (top 3)
Bartel J (Geel) 1.349
Harvey B (Kang) 2.096
Corey J (Geel) 2.499
Cooney A (WB) 2.641
Ablett G (Geel) 2.665
Riewoldt N (St K) 5.947
Black S (Bris) 10.601
Selwood J (Geel) 15.849
Cross D (WB) 16.330
Swan D (Coll) 20.309
Pavlich M (Fre) 22.723
Richardson M (Rich) 27.078
Judd C (Carl) 30.437
Akermanis J (WB) 62.220
Thompson S (Adel) 71.242
Kirk B (Syd) 91.294
Cornes K (Pt A) 207.573
Brown J (Bris) 401.724
Deledio B (Rich) 483.158
O'Keefe R (Syd) 484.491
All Others > 500

 

[brent-83]

Looks good and on the money.

Would love to see your team voting results.

 

[daffo]

Would be happy to see Jimmy win it again, his my favourite for the night.

 

[Borgsta]

And in case anyone doubts this formula look here

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=375020

 

[Belnakor]

Ah good, i was waiting for the Guru to speak, considering his success in past years.

 

[Burzum]

I was waiting for you to post. Thank you.

 

[bigpapagman]

i love black to place @ $10.

i also love judd to place @ $30.

and judd to win @ $377

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

Woah, there's a massive gap in odds between Bartel and the rest of the pack. Do you think he is that outright to take the Charlie? Also surprising you have Corey ahead of Ablett. I liked the look of Corey last year and it turned out that he didn't grab all that many votes.

Nice reading btw. It's now confirmed i will put some of my hard earned of Bartel to win... the question is how big? I'm not a big punter myself, and i know this varies, but what would be most sensible? $20-$50?

 

[rgauci]

Im pretty happy with those odds. Got on Cross at 75 to 1 for a place.

 

[Carlton Kid]

WIN
Bartel J (Geel) 2.283
Harvey B (Kang) 6.321
Corey J (Geel) 6.871
Cooney A (WB) 10.324
Ablett G (Geel) 11.462
Riewoldt N (St K) 41.204
Black S (Bris) 85.859
Selwood J (Geel) 105.259
Cross D (WB) 114.565
Swan D (Coll) 209.067
Pavlich M (Fre) 220.167
Richardson M (Rich)356.782
Judd C (Carl) 377.691
Akermanis J (WB) 706.381
All others > 1000

So, of the above players the only ones worth a flutter for a win are...

Bartel @ 3.60
Corey @ 13.00
Cooney @ 13.00
Cross @ 251.00

PLACE (top 3)
Bartel J (Geel) 1.349
Harvey B (Kang) 2.096
Corey J (Geel) 2.499
Cooney A (WB) 2.641
Ablett G (Geel) 2.665
Riewoldt N (St K) 5.947
Black S (Bris) 10.601
Selwood J (Geel) 15.849
Cross D (WB) 16.330
Swan D (Coll) 20.309
Pavlich M (Fre) 22.723
Richardson M (Rich) 27.078
Judd C (Carl) 30.437
Akermanis J (WB) 62.220
Thompson S (Adel) 71.242
Kirk B (Syd) 91.294
Cornes K (Pt A) 207.573
Brown J (Bris) 401.724
Deledio B (Rich) 483.158
O'Keefe R (Syd) 484.491
All Others > 500

And of all those, the only players worth a bet for a place are...

Bartel @ 1.50
Corey @ 4.00
Cooney @ 4.00
Cross @ 63.50
Akermanis @ 63.50

 

[Too_many_talls]

I had a look through last year's thread. The only gaping hole in the analysis is Simon Black - who was 5th favourite to take out the leading Brisbane votes!

Anyway, appreciate the time and effort and I would say that it looks pretty accurate this year.

 

[SaintsManMat]

Richo @ $356 is not bad....he had a rip snorter of a year

 

[Carlton Kid]

I had a look through last year's thread. The only gaping hole in the analysis is Simon Black - who was 5th favourite to take out the leading Brisbane votes!

Anyway, appreciate the time and effort and I would say that it looks pretty accurate this year.

WOW! Just noticed that...

 

[kensington]

Richo @ $356 is not bad....he had a rip snorter of a year

I think you may be missing the point. From what I gather brownlowguru is giving you the odds of the player winning, not the odds of the TAB. If you can find odds larger than what brownlowguru has quoted then it is not a bad bet. Poster above gave bartel, cooney and cross as examples...

 

[Corpuscles]

Is there consideration in the formula equation for the reliable always 10-25% wrong!!! "just coz they are umpires" factor?

Bloody hell ... D Cross at $251 looks good value flutter!!!

 

[Carlton Kid]

Richo @ $356 is not bad....he had a rip snorter of a year

Like above poster said, it's the price the player should be at. I other words Richo should be at $356 but instead the TAB has him at $21. So putting money on him would be like throwing your money away.

 

[Carlton Kid]

Is there consideration in the formula equation for the reliable always 10-25% wrong!!! "just coz they are umpires" factor?

Bloody hell ... D Cross at $251 looks good value flutter!!!

Or the 63.50 for a place. gret value!

 

[Carlton Kid]

Just looked it up, Cross has a history of not getting votes when he should have. Seems TAB have done their research

 

[the_riddler]

Richo @ $356 is not bad....he had a rip snorter of a year

Had a big drop-off in the second half of the year. I wouldn't be surprised to see him up there at the halfway mark but can't see him sustaining it

 

[Grave Danger]

Hey ADRIAN BARICH, will you be mentioning this on 6PR??

 

[huwcar]

I'd be interested know where you predict players who are ineligible for the Brownlow will finish, ie. Sam Mitchell.

 

[asanque]

Please post most votes per team.

Also, a total number of geelong votes analysis would be great.

 

[sandwichartist]

Is there anywhere I can get a full list of the odds from the 2007 Brownlow for the different categories to compare BG's results from last year.

 

[Corzafa]

No Cox? is that an oversight or you just do not see him getting any votes?

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

How does the top 5 betting work? Does a particular player have to earn their spot within the top 5 outright, or can there be multiple players on the same score within the top 5.

E.g. Last year:

James Bartel 29
Simon Black 22
Daniel Kerr 22
Brent Harvey 22
Sam Mitchell 21
Adam Goodes 20
Dane Swan 20
Gary Ablett 20
Scott Thompson 18

Would the top 5 end at Mitchell or finish on Thompson going by votes?