The draft myth?

[TennisPlayerAndy]

The sides dominating now have been aided by the fact that the recent drafts have been pillaged by two teams thus not allowing those who are close to bridge the gap.

 

[Mitchell Madness]

The sides dominating now have been aided by the fact that the recent drafts have been pillaged by two teams thus not allowing those who are close to bridge the gap.

Plenty of talent running around in lower leagues
It isn't like many 18 yr olds come in and have an instant impact

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

Plenty of talent running around in lower leagues
It isn't like many 18 yr olds come in and have an instant impact

You give some of the talent that GC and GWS amassed to some of the better clubs and they improve.

 

[TBoyleSuperstar]

You give some of the talent that GC and GWS amassed to some of the better clubs and they improve.

True, but the better sides will also be getting some of those players as well, thus improving them no?

And really, drafting is one thing, developing is the key to it all.

 

[Furn2]

Yeah the concessions are a reason for the Hawks dominance theory doesn't really hold up.

If you look at the teams most effected by it, only Port and West Coast have been contenders in the last 3-4 years.

Teams like The Cats, Swans and Freo who have been up the top end weren't any more disadvantaged than Hawthorn by the new sides as far as the draft goes.

The teams who have suffered most lie Melbourne, Brisbane etc would be better no doubt but not to the point they would be anywhere near premiership level.

So really it's only Port and WC that can argue that they might have won one of the Hawks 3 flags had there been no concessions, however if you look at the players they got in those drafts they aren't any worse off at all.

Port could have got Patton but the they wouldn't have Wingard, while the Eagles could have had Swallow but lost Gaff, so that's not any real world disadvantage there.

You then also have to consider the Hawks might have been able to pick up some of that GWS talent as well.

The real effect of those drafts will come once those players peak and GWS and GC are contenders but my then a lot of it will have been redistributed anyway.

 

[PhatHQ]

You're right, OP.
Eight years ago, I posted this. Very little has changed. http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threa...tool-everyone-has-it-cracked-up-to-be.422515/

Great foresight!
I would guess that the AFL would have seen this as well but still had expansion expectations to have those teams competing for finals sooner rather than later; what better way to create expansion clubs than to have a compromised draft that they can manipulate to get the supposed best result for the afl. Compensation picks, priority picks, father son, academy priority... It's all BS!
Now that the 18 clubs are are competitive ( forgetting Carlton, Essendon this year ) or in a position to be competitive in the next couple of years it would seem the best time to implement a simple system that doesn't favour anyone with picks, have ONE rule to apply the gathering of players for a club in the form of a strictly policed salary cap, complete freedoms for players to play wherever they like whenever they like with an inclination for those kids to stay in their home state if preferred.
If everyone was on the same rules there couldn't be complaints on who got propped up where & when...
I think the NFL is a classic example of how if you have bad ownership, bad player management, bad draft selections, bad financial management then you will be an afterthought for a Super Bowl for decades.
Success starts with the leaders of an organisation surrounding themselves with the right people to be successful! That filters down to the list managers, scouts, coaches & players.
It's not all about the players on the field behind the sustained success or a couple of AA players that came out of a good draft but the people who develop that talent & find that talent that I think are the ones that should get the credit. If Carlton had Greame Wright & Andrew Russell, Chris Fagan for the last 5 years I bet they wouldn't be where they are now

 

[yyou]

loving the discussion folks
here's a bit of a twist on the salary cap percentage idea.
85% as a minimum per club,
but
the percentage saved can be added to future seasons within 5 years
so for example, Club X (not the place I find videos), decides to use 85% for 3 years out of their 5.
(they know they are rebuilding)
in years 4 & 5 they have the cash not used previously (>100% of the salary cap) to use & they can actually attract a star.
it could be convoluted enough to interest the AFL
thoughts?

 

[TBoyleSuperstar]

loving the discussion folks
here's a bit of a twist on the salary cap percentage idea.
85% as a minimum per club,
but
the percentage saved can be added to future seasons within 5 years
so for example, Club X (not the place I find videos), decides to use 85% for 3 years out of their 5.
(they know they are rebuilding)
in years 4 & 5 they have the cash not used previously (>100% of the salary cap) to use & they can actually attract a star.
it could be convoluted enough to interest the AFL
thoughts?

I like it, my concern would be some clubs would f#$k it up completely and find themselves in yr 6 at 110% of the salary cap and having to trade out a star to get back within it.

 

[caddyhawk]

loving the discussion folks
here's a bit of a twist on the salary cap percentage idea.
85% as a minimum per club,
but
the percentage saved can be added to future seasons within 5 years
so for example, Club X (not the place I find videos), decides to use 85% for 3 years out of their 5.
(they know they are rebuilding)
in years 4 & 5 they have the cash not used previously (>100% of the salary cap) to use & they can actually attract a star.
it could be convoluted enough to interest the AFL
thoughts?

Just front load payments and you'll get the same cap space anyway. Some clubs need to be smarter.

 

[footyfan1978]

The sides dominating now have been aided by the fact that the recent drafts have been pillaged by two teams thus not allowing those who are close to bridge the gap.

More to the point. The silly people suggesting the bottom teams cannot rise up completely overlooked fact in recent times those two new clubs getting the majority of elite talent meant the normal bottom few clubs were not able to re-energize their list with the most elite young talent on offer that was possible in years previous to two new clubs getting concessions of those types. That was a temporary thing and one of the reasons some of bottom teams could not rise as quickly in recent times. Nothing to do with draft itself not working in way it was meant to in lines with equalisation policies. I would expect with no new clubs on horizon a bottom club now, like my own, can rise in time if the right type of talent in draft pools is chosen and developed in next five or six years. Looking forward to the challenge actually.

 

[boncer34]

I'd love if Free Agency didn't exist, gladly have Ellis, Young, Brown, Murphy, Franklin, Suckling back.

Murphy?

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

They produce drafted players every year, they would play for those clubs.
But even with a draft why can't the clubs have one priority pick every year from their home state before the draft?
The best 10 players in Victoria go to Victorian clubs, the best two West Aussies go to the Eagles and Dockers, then SA etc etc and then after that we have the draft.

Makes its hard for the Qld / NSW teams that haven't traditionally produced regular high end talent. Could also produce the anomaly where a top 4 team lands the best talent, like next year with both Freo and WC expected to Have strong seasons, and Petrevski Seton as a prospect.

 

[Komrade_Tiger]

Yeah the concessions are a reason for the Hawks dominance theory doesn't really hold up.

If you look at the teams most effected by it, only Port and West Coast have been contenders in the last 3-4 years.

Teams like The Cats, Swans and Freo who have been up the top end weren't any more disadvantaged than Hawthorn by the new sides as far as the draft goes.

The teams who have suffered most lie Melbourne, Brisbane etc would be better no doubt but not to the point they would be anywhere near premiership level.

So really it's only Port and WC that can argue that they might have won one of the Hawks 3 flags had there been no concessions, however if you look at the players they got in those drafts they aren't any worse off at all.

Port could have got Patton but the they wouldn't have Wingard, while the Eagles could have had Swallow but lost Gaff, so that's not any real world disadvantage there.

You then also have to consider the Hawks might have been able to pick up some of that GWS talent as well.

The real effect of those drafts will come once those players peak and GWS and GC are contenders but my then a lot of it will have been redistributed anyway.

You can't categorically say that though, if they were pushing for Top 4 then they would have been in the position to poach the "finishing touch" players to genuinely become a threat as well as without GCS and GWS there would most likely have been more potential contenders....more contenders, harder to get threepeat so it is a bit disingenuous to claim that expansion hasn't made the threepeat easier than if there were no concessions

 

[GhostofJimJess]

The draft should be simple. Honestly, how hard is it to line it all up and base it upon ladder position? But no, the AFL have had to try and be too clever by half and introduce fluid and discretionary priority picks. I mean look at Hawthorn. Before any Hawks supporters get their knickers in a twist they should be commended for astute trading, and drafting. But Hodge and Roughead and to a lesser extent Ellis as priority picks is too much. When they nailed their picks around the priority picks, is it any wonder they are the juggernaut they are now. Particularly when the compromised drafts for the expansion clubs meant that no one could get access to high end talent.

The draft is fine ... If the AFL dont **** around with it and make things up on the go

Roughead and Ellis might have "priority pick" next to their names in the draft, but to be fair it was really Franklin and Dowler the Hawks acquired through the priority pick system. They still would've got Roughead and Ellis by way of finishing second and third last in 04 & 05. Hodge was simply good trading by offloading a damaged Trent Croad for number 1 pick from Freo.

Other than that, I am completely in agreeance with you that it's been the constant tampering with the draft order by the AFL that has compromised the system.

 

[Furn2]

You can't categorically say that though, if they were pushing for Top 4 then they would have been in the position to poach the "finishing touch" players to genuinely become a threat as well as without GCS and GWS there would most likely have been more potential contenders....more contenders, harder to get threepeat so it is a bit disingenuous to claim that expansion hasn't made the threepeat easier than if there were no concessions

You can't say anything for certain about a hypothetical timeline that never happened of course

However, If you look at the fact GWS and GC who got to hoard all of that talent as well sign a bunch of experienced players have not really come close to even playing finals, you can make a pretty good guess that a sprinkling of those players going into clubs with poor systems and no leadership is not going to push them into the top four.

It seems like a massive amount of talent when it all goes to the same club like that but GWSs 20-25 odd 1st rounders is actually just 1 or 2 players per team.

It's not like Melbourne or whoever would have got all those players, it wouldve been spread out to all teams and based on history it's no given the bottom sides wood have picked the cream of it anyway.

 

[Galileo9]

I think that the new teams have had a massive impact on other teams being able to be closer to Hawks. It delayed it while Hawks had its core already set.

No way they would have won this many premierships had the normal being allowed. In particular strength of freo has been severely diluted as they would have being able to get slightly better players to get them over the line.

 

[Mocca]

I love the 'compromised drafts make it harder for other teams to catch Hawthorn' one, it's a killer.

From last year's premiership team, Hawthorn has managed to acquire the following players since the AFL announced that Gold Coast & GWS were coming in:

- Josh Gibson in a trade (available to everybody).
- Ben McEvoy in a trade (available to everybody).
- Taylor Duryea at pick 69 in the 2009 National Draft (available to everybody).
- Shaun Burgoyne in a trade (available to everybody).
- Brad Hill at pick 33 in 2011 National Draft (available to everybody except Collingwood and Melbourne).
- James Frawley via free agency (available to everybody).
- Isaac Smith at pick 19 in the 2010 National Draft (available everybody except Collingwood, Fremantle, St Kilda, Sydney and the Dogs).
- Brian Lake in a trade (available to everybody).
- Jack Gunston in a trade (available to everybody).
- David Hale in a trade (available to everybody).
- Luke Breust at pick 47 in the 2009 Rookie Draft (available to everybody).
- Ben Stratton at pick 49 in the 2009 National Draft (available to everybody).
- Paul Puopolo at pick 66 in the 2010 National Draft (available to everybody).

That's well over half of a premiership team acquired since 2009, all players that were pretty much available to anyone.

Not included in that list are premiership players Will Langford (available to everybody), Matt Spangher (available to everybody) and Jonathan Simpkin (available to everybody). Hawthorn has managed to pick up sixteen premiership players in the time that other clubs can't rebuild effectively.

 

[PhatHQ]

I love the 'compromised drafts make it harder for other teams to catch Hawthorn' one, it's a killer.

From last year's premiership team, Hawthorn has managed to acquire the following players since the AFL announced that Gold Coast & GWS were coming in:

- Josh Gibson in a trade (available to everybody).
- Ben McEvoy in a trade (available to everybody).
- Taylor Duryea at pick 69 in the 2009 National Draft (available to everybody).
- Shaun Burgoyne in a trade (available to everybody).
- Brad Hill at pick 33 in 2011 National Draft (available to everybody except Collingwood and Melbourne).
- James Frawley via free agency (available to everybody).
- Isaac Smith at pick 19 in the 2010 National Draft (available everybody except Collingwood, Fremantle, St Kilda, Sydney and the Dogs).
- Brian Lake in a trade (available to everybody).
- Jack Gunston in a trade (available to everybody).
- David Hale in a trade (available to everybody).
- Luke Breust at pick 47 in the 2009 Rookie Draft (available to everybody).
- Ben Stratton at pick 49 in the 2009 National Draft (available to everybody).
- Paul Puopolo at pick 66 in the 2010 National Draft (available to everybody).

That's well over half of a premiership team acquired since 2009, all players that were pretty much available to anyone.

Not included in that list are premiership players Will Langford (available to everybody), Matt Spangher (available to everybody) and Jonathan Simpkin (available to everybody). Hawthorn has managed to pick up sixteen premiership players in the time that other clubs can't rebuild effectively.

Haha! You've just owned this thread!! Nice work cobba

 

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

Three Dynasties didn't happen because of the draft, Brisbane had extra salary cap, Geelong had good luck with father sons, and Hawthorn peaked when GWS and Gold Coast had a monopoly on the draft and halted other teams from developing to challenge them.

This.

And the Syds had COLA etc.

The draft is fine.

 

[Superstar swan]

Compromised draft has seriously empowered teams that had already built their list. Also free agency for a top 4 side is laughable.

The draft is fine. The top teams just managed their list really well.

Why should we eliminate teams from free agency based on their ladder position?, no other free agency model works like that. In fact the afl free agency model -minus the compo is a lot fairer system than say the nba. In nba, you can go way over the salary cap , as long as you are willing to pay the luxury tax.

If a player wants to play for hawthorn and is willing to do so under the salary offered, whats the problem?

 

[Furn2]

I think that the new teams have had a massive impact on other teams being able to be closer to Hawks. It delayed it while Hawks had its core already set.

No way they would have won this many premierships had the normal being allowed. In particular strength of freo has been severely diluted as they would have being able to get slightly better players to get them over the line.

Freo were no more put out than Hawthorn by the concessions.

Who are these players from the 2010,11 draft that Freo would have got that would have got them over Hawthorn on the last 3 years ?

There are currently 6 players from those drafts at GWS and GC that are in the top 150 players on the AFL ratings. Prestia, Lynch, Shiel, Smith, Swallow and May. It's highly unlikely that Freo or any other team contender from 2013-15 would have been able to get any of those players.

 

[Gunstall555]

The draft should be simple. Honestly, how hard is it to line it all up and base it upon ladder position? But no, the AFL have had to try and be too clever by half and introduce fluid and discretionary priority picks. I mean look at Hawthorn. Before any Hawks supporters get their knickers in a twist they should be commended for astute trading, and drafting. But Hodge and Roughead and to a lesser extent Ellis as priority picks is too much. When they nailed their picks around the priority picks, is it any wonder they are the juggernaut they are now. Particularly when the compromised drafts for the expansion clubs meant that no one could get access to high end talent.

The draft is fine ... If the AFL dont **** around with it and make things up on the go

Hodge was traded for, Ellis plays at another club and we got nothing for him, and whilst we got Roughead as a priority pick, we lost Franklin for virtually nothing. Where we excelled was using picks in the 30's to get guys like Mitchell, Hill & Shiels, 40's to get guys like Stratton, in the 60's for Puopolo and Duryea, and rookies such as Breust, Langford & Suckling. To suggest we were dominant because of priority picks is a complete fallacy. Otherwise Melbourne, Collingwood & Carlton would be dominating this league right now.

 

[Gunstall555]

Seems really hard for sides to get off the bottom and really easy for sides to stay up the top, more than ever perhaps.

Free agency has helped sides stay up and create dynasties. No doubt there would have been gaps in the hawks flags if not for free agency.

Yep without Jon Simpkin being the sub in 2013 or Frawley this year there is no way we would have won 3 flags in a row.

 

[Farm Boy]

Hodge was traded for, Ellis plays at another club and we got nothing for him, and whilst we got Roughead as a priority pick, we lost Franklin for virtually nothing.

You got a first round pick for Franklin, and it opened up cap space and afforded you the opportunity to land James Frawley. So you got a first round pick, and valuable cap space that landed you an A grade back man. While it might not be Franklin's 'true worth', it is better than nothing (which you are suggesting you received).

 

[Randy Campbell]

I love the 'compromised drafts make it harder for other teams to catch Hawthorn' one, it's a killer.

From last year's premiership team, Hawthorn has managed to acquire the following players since the AFL announced that Gold Coast & GWS were coming in:

- Josh Gibson in a trade (available to everybody).
- Ben McEvoy in a trade (available to everybody).
- Taylor Duryea at pick 69 in the 2009 National Draft (available to everybody).
- Shaun Burgoyne in a trade (available to everybody).
- Brad Hill at pick 33 in 2011 National Draft (available to everybody except Collingwood and Melbourne).
- James Frawley via free agency (available to everybody).
- Isaac Smith at pick 19 in the 2010 National Draft (available everybody except Collingwood, Fremantle, St Kilda, Sydney and the Dogs).
- Brian Lake in a trade (available to everybody).
- Jack Gunston in a trade (available to everybody).
- David Hale in a trade (available to everybody).
- Luke Breust at pick 47 in the 2009 Rookie Draft (available to everybody).
- Ben Stratton at pick 49 in the 2009 National Draft (available to everybody).
- Paul Puopolo at pick 66 in the 2010 National Draft (available to everybody).

That's well over half of a premiership team acquired since 2009, all players that were pretty much available to anyone.

Not included in that list are premiership players Will Langford (available to everybody), Matt Spangher (available to everybody) and Jonathan Simpkin (available to everybody). Hawthorn has managed to pick up sixteen premiership players in the time that other clubs can't rebuild effectively.

This needs to be read by the many who are blinded by ignorance.