The Ebola Virus / Outbreak

[Xsess]

I'm patiently waiting for certain people to come in here and blame Islam for this virus..

Quite dumbfounded I've been waiting this long to be honest..

You failed to mention that Tony Abbott and Climate Change played a huge part in the spread of ebola.

 

[Illinois Nazi]

I'm amazed at the general view being expressed that the best response seems to be for as many countries as possible to send people in and out of the affected area.

 

[thepoyz]

Interesting post! I spent some time studying in Malawi a year ago and it struck me at the time that diseases like Ebola wouldn't be able to spread as HIV has due to feet being the dominant the mode of transport. As urbanisation and access to faster modes of transport increase the ability of a disease like this to spread is huge. Especially when you consider both the lack of understanding of some diseases (HIV a good example again) and the lack of finance to upgrade hospitals etc.

I have seen significant changes and there is a growing urbanization throughout Africa and the natural barriers that have always existed are diminishing rapidly... As you say there is massive ongoing clearing of land (Africa has always had great potential to be a "bread basket" for the world but old colonial borders have caused much of the "this is Africa" problem).

 

[awaremind]

I would just say that we shouldn't send health workers there without a very good plan for their safety while there, and their quarantine upon return.

 

[Freo2012]

Interesting post! I spent some time studying in Malawi a year ago and it struck me at the time that diseases like Ebola wouldn't be able to spread as HIV has due to feet being the dominant the mode of transport. As urbanisation and access to faster modes of transport increase the ability of a disease like this to spread is huge. Especially when you consider both the lack of understanding of some diseases (HIV a good example again) and the lack of finance to upgrade hospitals etc.

Yep, one of the leading causes attributable to the rapid spread of HIV was truck drivers and itinerant workers.

My direct experiences in Africa (living, working for several years and on many other business trips at various times over the last few decades) is predominantly eastern and southern Africa, though I spent many years as an expat-kid growing up in west Africa (mainly in Monrovia, Liberia pre civil war). China (and others) have made significant investments (infrastructure roads etc as well as some "ego" constructions for some governments (stadiums etc)) in return for certain mineral and other rights. Have seen so many major road constructions (increasingly in recent times) and with the massive increase in transportation vehicles, times are changing significantly from the majority travel by foot and bike.

One thing that really perplexes me about the current Ebola situation in West Africa is we know very VERY little about the situation in the direct neighboring countries (Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Burkino Faso, Ghana and others adjacent), as though they are immune to it and it does not exist - I can only presume we are not getting full facts. There are significant ebola numbers experienced near some of these borders, and it is coming to the end of certain growing seasons. In West Africa there are significant movements of people (itinerant workers) between countries and it IS impossible to lock down borders (borders are meaningless to much trade, movement and culture - many borders are meaningless and purely a result of colonialism). The Sierra Leone numbers also make little sense when you look at deaths and infections elsewhere - but they did have lockdowns and perhaps their medical actions, knowledge and also general health of those infected may have significantly improved their numbers. People with better immune systems and that keep hydrated well have a greater recovery rate.

Looking at the statistics and daily growth rates in the Wiki page (data from WHO) it appears the last 3 weeks have started to turn the situation a little - there is hope we are starting to make progress in the infection rates.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus_epidemic_in_West_Africa

 

[Linda Lovelace]

I'm amazed at the general view being expressed that the best response seems to be for as many countries as possible to send people in and out of the affected area.

That's because it is the best response. If you don't stop the spread at the source, you don't stop it.

 

[Spiritof82]

Should have included a cost benefit analysis in stopping each threat. Stopping ebola > daylight > stopping ISIS

Simple solution, move all those with ebola to Iraq and then isolate the country, two problems solved

 

[Illinois Nazi]

That's because it is the best response. If you don't stop the spread at the source, you don't stop it.

Sure, but not by having a continual stream of people coming and going to and from the area. By all means send in health workers to assist, but you don't need a team from every country, and those who do go in should be going in for the long haul (ie years), not being rotated around all the time.

 

[Slax]

I'm surprised more hasn't been made of the massive divide in policy between the government and ALP on this issue. With infections of health workers in USA & Spain I feel that the Abbott stance is justifable. I'm just glad that it hasn't so far got into some major cities once into a slum area the spread could quickly reach a full epidemic with global implications. Currently it is regionalised with sparadic cases outside of the known area, but get beyond that and it can become uncontrolable.

 

[cats23]

Our government's response to this crisis is a little embarrassing. The monetary contribution is quite poor comparatively, and Abbott's reasoning that it is "too risky" to send human help doesn't sit right with me, particularly when he's sending our troops to war at the same time. The methods of countering the spread of infection to health care workers have improved enormously, and the best method of containing the outbreak is at the source.

I'm a nurse, and kind of feel morally obliged to help out, especially considering the insufficient local healthcare system, the suffering of people affected, and the catastrophic potential this disease has. I've volunteered overseas previously in HIV orphanages and leprocy centres, and have naturally been well informed of the potential risks before doing so. Many local doctors and nurses are ready and willing to commit to helping out in this instance.

 

[AngryRanga]

What do the medical staff actually do to 'help out'?

 

[Riseupaustralia]

What do the medical staff actually do to 'help out'?

never been to hospital before?

 

[johncat]

What do the medical staff actually do to 'help out'?

My brother is currently volunteering in West Africa. He's a paramedic, but his work while there includes medical care (delivering medication and support to those affected...), training the local staff, tracing contacts of the disease in the community, community education (which has been difficult, as the hospitals have been targeted, accused of spreading the disease) and liaising with our government re back up.

 

[Freo2012]

My brother is currently volunteering in West Africa. He's a paramedic, but his work while there includes medical care (delivering medication and support to those affected...), training the local staff, tracing contacts of the disease in the community, community education (which has been difficult, as the hospitals have been targeted, accused of spreading the disease) and liaising with our government re back up.

Unfortunately due to the many years of civil war and hardships and atrocities experienced in the Liberia and the region most people there have very little belief in government and the army. This is only further exacerbated by certain groups trying to take advantage and making up all sorts of lies, such as there is no ebola and that it is a western program at de-population. Absolutely disgusting how some people try to take advantage of terrible and dangerous situations that really only makes matters far worse with more being infected as a result.

Given Liberia's history it is a very good thing that the US are sending troops on the ground and working with the local military/police - Liberia and other countries there do generally have faith in the western militaries.

Personally I do think they should totally lock down air travel to all but medical and aid. There are certainly very many airforce bases which could be used as staging and quarantine facilities for all military, medical and aid workers when returning. I think a far more concerted organised effort is required by the world (we certainly know it was required months ago) and the military, medical and aid communities have shown in countless other situations how this can be achieved with a great outcome. Just needs resources and will of mind to act with careful urgency.

 

[Freo2012]

a few obvious thoughts to waste your time reading

- life is all about probabilities, whether you like to think about it or not. For example when crossing a road if you don't look and walk straight out you significantly increase your probability of getting hit by a vehicle - look to see when it is clear/safe to cross and you increase your probabilities significantly of making it safely. This example applies to all things in life and we are always seeking information to improve whatever probabilities are involved with absolutely everything we do, whether we do it consciously or not.

- whilst Ebola has a high death rate (50-70% usually) many people survive, some without showing any symptoms and not even knowing they had the disease. Strength of immune system is one key to survival, as well as early detection and correct medical treatment (fluids, electolytes etc) another. An interesting thing about immune systems is that the best immune systems is one that has not been "cotton wooled" but has been exposed to much in its development and also of course that is healthy nutritionally and a person somewhat active. Note that elite athletes usually have terrible immune systems through pushing their bodies too hard, always at the edge with energy stores. So whilst westerners generally live a nutritionally far better lifestyle (opportunity to, though obesity numbers and diets show otherwise) and have far better medical care/facilities we don't necessarily have better immune systems through "cotton wooling" our lives.

- Ebola has various symptom stages, most contagious during the usually short flu-like symptom stage. The stated 1-21 day incubation/contagious period is P95 - this means 95% of sufferers have the 1-21 day period, it is 1-42 days for P98 and months for the that small last few % - natural variation and probability at work as with everything. Another thing is that the virus can live internally for a few months, so passing of fluids through sex for example can lead to spread up to a few months after infection (and the infected may not even have had symptoms or know they were infected). If you have only a few cases naturally the odds of it spreading from those few (outside of the P95) are extremely low, however odds change around completely as infected numbers get large (over 50 or more). Every 100 you expect 5 to be outside that P95 range - how many infections are there?

- ALL viruses mutate, obviously the more infected the far higher rate of mutation. Which is why the "annual flu shot" is based on the 4 most expected and virulent strains expected to come to our society, but people always get "other" flu's. I think it was stated they had seen about 400 mutations from the first 2000 infections a few months back. Exponential effect - spread profile and mutation.

- There are many working to develop vaccines - obviously it is now very $economic to do so. One supposed vaccine that works to a large extent is being commercialised and should have about 250,000 vaccinations available by May next year. Think about that timing and exponential growth probability of Ebola, and the fact it takes a very long time to build up the vaccinations quantities from scratch. Also will a vaccine that works now on some or all of the current mutations still be effective against all mutations in the future whilst it is being developed into usable quantities.

Life is short, live it - don't live your life in fear of every possible bad thing that could happen, but instead live a healthy lifestyle, be aware of probability concerns of things/events that are new and can significantly affect us but on a self-controlled and realistic basis, preparing accordingly, which we do sub-consciously all the time in everything anyway.

 

[Freo2012]

Damn, the Wiki site now says over 12,000 cases which has blown the % daily growth out - obviously the information for the past few weeks is wrong if thats the case.

WHO have stated that actual numbers (their reported numbers require a certain level of confirmation) could be 3 times higher than what their confirmed numbers state. So what is happening - more people on the ground now in more centres so more are being reported to WHO standards. Obviously as more resources get on the ground this will go up a lot further - so cannot place any trend reliance on the daily growth rates. Many of the populations are afraid of reporting to centres or reporting of relatives that have died, making the spread far FAR worse.

The situation in reality is obviously far worse than the official numbers show. IMO this thing is totally out of control - far too little too late by the international community to contain it.

 

[blackcat]

http://www.nj.com/healthfit/index.s...puts_politicians_on_blast_in_op-ed_piece.html

Ebola Nurse: Stop calling me the 'Ebola Nurse'

neoplasm pleonasm is tautology.

nice eyebrows. p'raps, eyebola clown brow nurse