The 'F' Word

[Matchu]

Can it be done? Could the Giants pull off the seemingly impossible and make finals after just two years of building? I started a thread like this in the Gold Coast forum last season when the media started to get around the Suns and saying they were a chance for finals and the media now appears to be doing the same thing for the Giants. So let's look at the draw and perhaps get a better idea of their chances.

Round 4 v Bulldogs @ Manuka
Round 5 v Crows @ Adelaide Oval
Round 6 v Suns @ Carrara
Round 7 v Power @ Manuka
Round 8 v Eagles @ Subiaco
Round 9 v Bye
Round 10 v Tigers @ Sydney Showgrounds
Round 11 v Hawks @ MCG
Round 12 v Bombers @ Sydney Showgrounds
Round 13 v Lions @ Gabba
Round 14 v Blues @ Sydney Showgrounds
Round 15 v Swans @ SCG
Round 16 v Crows @ Sydney Showgrounds
Round 17 v Dockers @ Subiaco
Round 18 v Cats @ Sydney Showgrounds
Round 19 v Tigers @ MCG
Round 20 v Kangaroos @ Manuka
Round 21 v Demons @ MCG
Round 22 v Magpies @ Sydney Showgrounds
Round 23 v Bulldogs @ Etihad

So how many wins are needed to make finals? Let's go on how many wins were required last season to finish 8th. Now we know Carlton got in but any other year Port Adelaide would have finished 8th with 12 wins. The Giants already have 2 wins this season which means they require 10 wins in their next 19 matches. The question is, can you pick out 10 wins in those games? I can.

I believe these games are winnable - Bulldogs x 2, Crows x 2, Tigers (in Sydney), Lions, Blues, Swans, Demons, Kangaroos and Magpies. That is 11 games that I believe the Giants have a shot at winning. So to answer my own question, I do believe the f word is possible for the Giants in 2014. BUT, in my opinion, they must win their next two games against the Bulldogs and Crows to have a shot. Now it's your turn. Do you think they can make it and why/why not?

 

[Ichabod Noodle]

If I didn't know better, I would call you a troll.

 

[Matchu]

If I didn't know better, I would call you a troll.

Not trolling mate but I can see why you would think that. Do you think finals are possible in 2014?

 

[Ichabod Noodle]

I didn't call you a troll. I said, if I didn't know better I would. I know you aren't a troll, (though still not a fan of 'the big three') - but finals? Seriously? You are kidding right?

 

[Matchu]

I didn't call you a troll. I said, if I didn't know better I would. I know you aren't a troll, (though still not a fan of 'the big three') - but finals? Seriously? You are kidding right?

Why not? Stranger things have happened. I'm asking whether people believe it is (genuinely) possible not if they think it will happen. Not a lot of people booked them in for a round 1 victory against the Swans but they defied the odds. There were times last season when I thought my club wasn't going to make finals but we kept the ball rolling and we made it.

Opinions change over time. It's hard to see it right now but I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Giants had 8+ wins in 2014. Think about it this way, if the Giants beat the Bulldogs this weekend then they only need to win 50% of their remaining matches. Of course a lot will come down to injuries but if your key players like Mumford, Shaw and Cameron stay fit then you'll be surprised by how far a good start to the season can take a team.

 

[IanW]

. Of course a lot will come down to injuries but if your key players like Mumford, Shaw and Cameron stay fit then you'll be surprised by how far a good start to the season can take a team.

Considering we're already down our best KPD for the year, and that means our KPD stocks are two kids and Tim Mohr, I think injuries have already had their vote.

 

[Simmofreo]

I think numbers wise it's definately possible, but realistically probably not. We have seen they can now run out 4 quarters, but can they run out a season ? Time will tell. Win the next 2 and people may start to wonder. Confidence and momentum are big things in footy

 

[Ellie Aquitaine]

It is waaaaay to early to consider finals. For a start, we have never:

1. won an away game
2. won back to back games
3. won a game by more than 40 points

we are performing probably about where informed and reasonable heads expected us to be. The only team we've faced outside our own skill band (ie young/developing/rebuilding) is Sydney; who are our cross-town rivals, notoriously slow starters and trying to bed down their own new game plan. While we did play above expectations and it was a massive win, we are yet to show our wares against those teams who are, realistically in the hunt for finals. If we'd beaten St Kilda, a game we could have won, I'd be more optimistic.

We've only played 3 rounds. The only things we can be certain of are the Hawks are good, Bomber Thompson can coach and Melbourne are going to have a tough year. If we learn to keep our heads and kick better when a game is there to be won, and teams like Carlton, Richmond and Adelaide don't turn themselves around, we'll probably find ourselves in a much better position than we expected.

I second what IanW said about injuries. We've got more depth but some players' fitness is critical to our success. Our boys need their Mummy!

 

[OrangeDuck]

A little history was made at Wednesday's Greater Western Sydney press conference when coach Leon Cameron was asked one particular question for the first time in club history, namely "Can you make the finals?"

http://www.gwsgiants.com.au/news/2014-04-09/the-f-word

 

[dlanod]

http://www.gwsgiants.com.au/news/2014-04-09/the-f-word

Matchu gets around.

 

[snitzel]

OP can go F himself, by which I mean good luck in the finals.

 

[RodneyMaynard]

No chance. 18th is a fail year, finish 17th is a pass. Finish 16th is a good year. Finish 15th and i'll flip my lid with excitement.

2015 finals will be a realistic (if still difficult) goal.

 

[van peebles]

No chance. 18th is a fail year, finish 17th is a pass. Finish 16th is a good year. Finish 15th and i'll flip my lid with excitement.

2015 finals will be a realistic (if still difficult) goal.

i would think that melb.brizzy have bottom 2 places sewn up.
so under your mix we will be having a good year.
also under some circumstances,we could finish higher than carl,crows maybe saints.
so a very good year could be beckoning,only under your stipulations.

 

[dlanod]

i would think that melb.brizzy have bottom 2 places sewn up.
so under your mix we will be having a good year.
also under some circumstances,we could finish higher than carl,crows maybe saints.
so a very good year could be beckoning,only under your stipulations.

Brisbane'll come on strong later in the year - played well against the stronger opposition (competitive losses against Hawthorn and Geelong), stunk against GC - aided with a much much easier draw after byes, though I still see the Lions finishing bottom 4 to 6 because of their draw though. Saints have only beaten Melbourne and GWS and hasn't looked good in either, so they'd still be my tip for 17th. After that it'll be a test of how much the Bulldogs have improved and how much Carlton, Collingwood and Adelaide have collapsed in a complete heap. If any of those quit on their coach (and there's been plenty of rumours around the playing list v Buckley, for example) they could easily end up in the bottom four.

I guess that puts us in the 11-14 range, which would be better than I expected at the beginning of the year. That's assuming that we can capitalize on our start, and we don't just fade away from here on. We could conceivably still go from round 6 to round 20 without a win depending on injuries and wearying of the kids, in which case we'd be back in the 15-18 range.

 

[IanW]

Brisbane'll come on strong later in the year - played well against the stronger opposition (competitive losses against Hawthorn and Geelong), stunk against GC - aided with a much much easier draw after byes, though I still see the Lions finishing bottom 4 to 6 because of their draw though. Saints have only beaten Melbourne and GWS and hasn't looked good in either, so they'd still be my tip for 17th. After that it'll be a test of how much the Bulldogs have improved and how much Carlton, Collingwood and Adelaide have collapsed in a complete heap. If any of those quit on their coach (and there's been plenty of rumours around the playing list v Buckley, for example) they could easily end up in the bottom four.

I guess that puts us in the 11-14 range, which would be better than I expected at the beginning of the year. That's assuming that we can capitalize on our start, and we don't just fade away from here on. We could conceivably still go from round 6 to round 20 without a win depending on injuries and wearying of the kids, in which case we'd be back in the 15-18 range.

I think its way to early in the season to assume anything - even Melbourne will look a heck of a lot better with a real forward.

 

[dlanod]

I think its way to early in the season to assume anything - even Melbourne will look a heck of a lot better with a real forward.

Definitely, but we can only speculate off what we've seen so far and internet forums are in the business of speculation.

 

[Matchu]

Maybe I got a little carried away with my first post in this thread. Finals really is a week to week prospect for the Giants in 2014 and you have to assess their chances at the end of each round. This week the Giants have the Crows at the Adelaide Oval, which could be really challenging. The Giants are still sitting in the top 8 for now and a win over the Crows certainly keeps them in the hunt early in the season.

 

[Ellie Aquitaine]

After our performance yesterday, the Giants showed that the bulk of the team are still a bit away from finals.

 

[Bogan Juniors]

After our performance yesterday, the Giants showed that the bulk of the team are still a bit away from finals.

Which all of us already knew, But....we are closer than last season as this game would have been a 20 goal flogging last year....and we did it without our 2 big signings that have made a huge difference and lost our captain and arguably best player in the second qtr, so the gains are there. We are going to have a similar season to the suns last year....which make sense.

 

[gee whiz giant]

Which all of us already knew, But....we are closer than last season as this game would have been a 20 goal flogging last year....and we did it without our 2 big signings that have made a huge difference and lost our captain and arguably best player in the second qtr, so the gains are there. We are going to have a similar season to the suns last year....which make sense.

Yes, two captains, two vice captains, and only one playing the second half. I thought Cogs stood up in their absence, and Haynes showed courage all day.