the F word....

[TBOW]

I don’t want anyone to get ahead of themselves.

No one should even read this post.

But in our next 10 games we have St. Kilda twice, Melbourne, GWS here, Brisbane here, Carlton and Gold Coast in Cairns.

We’re a young team – there is a fair chance we will drop a game or two that we should win. But if we were to win those 7 games, suddenly we are up to 10 wins.

We then have Geelong, Collingwood, Essendon the following 3 weeks. Might even be able to sneak a win or two there.

Then we have Port followed by Melbourne, West Coast in Perth and North Melbourne which is probably our toughest block for the year. Before finishing with Brisbane at the Gabba which could be an interesting game.

It’s been a while.
Does anyone remember roughly how many wins you need to play……er, never mind.
Forget I ever mentioned it...

 

[Morris Major]

Win 6 of the 7
Plus Geelong
Then add Melbourne, WC and Brisbane

Takes us to 13 wins which is enough for finals you'd think (Richmond was 8th last year with 12)

*best case scenario, I expect us to tire towards the end of the season


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Dazb86]

We always seem to play North after travelling to Perth.

*I'd expect to lose that one anyway.

 

[Doggies_13]

Depending on whether we sustain our form or not due to being young I can see us winning 12-13, at the bye we should be 6-4 with every chance to stretch it to 10-4 with Lions @es saints blues and then suns in cairns.

our last 8 games are Cats at ss Pies at es Bombers at es Port at es Dees at es West Coast at ps roos at es lions at the gabba

Dees and Lions I would hope to win
Pies and Cats I see as 50-50
Eagles 40-60 at best we just don't play well over there
lose bombers and port

 

[cammo78]

12 gets you in the conversation.

13 guarantees your invitation.

We are 23% of the way to the party, with 17% of the music having been played...ahead of the curve with a big chance of adding to that over the coming 10 weeks.

 

[Dav1d]

I've heard Stringer drop a whole load of F words when practicing his set shot
but I didn't hear finals in there
& also, I'm not kidding

 

[archibald23]

/close thread

 

[Hoges64]

An absolute pisser. Had ANYONE said we were a realistic chance of being 10-4 you'd have told them where to go and what to do when they got there.

 

[fargy]

Yep I agree!!
The club has been playing some real felicificative football!!
That's what you meant right?

 

[random__hero]

Beat the teams we should beat, jag an upset or 2 and who knows?

With a young team, it wouldn't surprise me to see us drop a couple of games where we're favourites.

 

[the dog's kennel]

Come back to me in 10 weeks. Then we'll see where we are at.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

If we can pinch one of Freo and Sydney (madness before this Adelaide win) then we could probably get to 12 wins even if we drop a couple of "should win" games.

Otherwise I can see us winning about 11 and finishing 10th. 11 wins would still be a ripper.

Swans 5%
Saints 85%
Freo 10%
Melbourne 75%
GWS 75%
Port 15%
Lions 85%
Saints 80%
Carlton 80%
Suns 70%
Cats 30%
Pies 60%
Essendon 20%
Port 20%
Melbourne 85%
West Coast 35%
Kangaroos 25%
Lions 75%

Puts us at a total of 12.3 wins. So maybe 12 wins isn't out of the question, but I'd still like to be conservative and say we'd win 11.

 

[TiAn_]

My prediction:

Swans - Lose
Saints - Win
Freo - Lose
Melbourne - Either way
GWS - Lose
Port - Lose
Lions - Win
Saints - Win
Carlton -Win
Suns - Win
Cats - Lose
Pies - Either way
Essendon - Lose
Port - Lose
Melbourne - Either way
West Coast - Lose
Kangaroos - Lose
Lions - Either way

Thus, 5 more wins, with a chance at another 3. Meaning that we'll win between 8 and 11 games on the season.

8 wins and above is an improvement on last year, which is amazing in the circumstances.

 

[fargy]

Planning to get to Brisbane for the last round, would be amazing if we won and that put us in the f word! But one week at a time hey

 

[VitalDread]

My prediction:

Swans - Lose
Saints - Win
Freo - Lose
Melbourne - Either way
GWS - Lose
Port - Lose
Lions - Win
Saints - Win
Carlton -Win
Suns - Win
Cats - Lose
Pies - Either way
Essendon - Lose
Port - Lose
Melbourne - Either way
West Coast - Lose
Kangaroos - Lose
Lions - Either way

Thus, 5 more wins, with a chance at another 3. Meaning that we'll win between 8 and 11 games on the season.

8 wins and above is an improvement on last year, which is amazing in the circumstances.

My prediction:
Swans - Win (if raining)
Saints - Win
Freo - Lose
Melbourne - Win
GWS - Win
Port - Lose
Lions - Win
Saints - Win
Carlton -Win
Suns - Win
Cats - Lose
Pies - Win
Essendon - Win
Port - Lose
Melbourne - Win
West Coast - Lose
Kangaroos - Lose
Lions - Lose


majority because we still have 9 home games and 3 away games at Etihad

 

[the dog's kennel]

Here's the thing - if we'd lost that match by 60 points, no-one would be predicting we'd make the finals.

But the only difference between that fictional result and where we are at currently is 4 points and a little bit of %. So for those predicting 13 wins, were you predicting 12 wins before yesterday?

Personally, I was predicting 7 or 8 wins. So now I'm predicting 8 or 9. But I just don't want to draw trendlines for form, because I can't see how this team, playing this brand of football, doesn't get extremely tired at some point in the season and lose a bunch of games that it should win.

 

[Lex22]

My prediction:

Swans - Lose
Saints - Win
Freo - Lose
Melbourne - Either way
GWS - Lose
Port - Lose
Lions - Win
Saints - Win
Carlton -Win
Suns - Win
Cats - Lose
Pies - Either way
Essendon - Lose
Port - Lose
Melbourne - Either way
West Coast - Lose
Kangaroos - Lose
Lions - Either way

Thus, 5 more wins, with a chance at another 3. Meaning that we'll win between 8 and 11 games on the season.

8 wins and above is an improvement on last year, which is amazing in the circumstances.

This is pretty much exactly how I see it. I get the feeling we'll beat one of West Coast, Essendon or GWS, though but can see us dropping a very winnable game in the process.

For the record I see us falling 2 games short of the top 8, but yes 8-11 is about the mark.

 

[archibald23]

...But I just don't want to draw trendlines for form, because I can't see how this team, playing this brand of football, doesn't get extremely tired at some point in the season and lose a bunch of games that it should win...

Agree here. According to the commentating team we had 13 players under 50 games in our squad last night. This year is a development year, probably our first outside of the rebuild (top 5 to 6 pick) years. If we can maintain the game plan and give 100% every game, that'd do me

Having said that, last team that I can think of that maintained frenetic forward pressure with a young list for the whole year were the pies of 2010? We'd be going okay if we emulated that .

 

[Morris Major]

Here's the thing - if we'd lost that match by 60 points, no-one would be predicting we'd make the finals.

But the only difference between that fictional result and where we are at currently is 4 points and a little bit of %. So for those predicting 13 wins, were you predicting 12 wins before yesterday?

Personally, I was predicting 7 or 8 wins. So now I'm predicting 8 or 9. But I just don't want to draw trendlines for form, because I can't see how this team, playing this brand of football, doesn't get extremely tired at some point in the season and lose a bunch of games that it should win.

I'd say most of the predictions wouldn't be too different to those before yesterday's game. The 'teams we should beat' remains the same, except we pinched an Adelaide which was a bonus. In the context of discussing finals, the short answer for your question would be yes.

My expectation is the same as yours, that we'll tire and lose more of the 'should win' games than we like.

 

[dogwatch]

I understand why people are saying our young list might get tired toward the end of the season. That could well happen and it would see us around 10-13th.

However at least as common a phenomenon is that talented young emerging sides suddenly "click", i.e. they start playing at another level. I don't want to be all rainbows and rose coloured glasses but I reckon this is also a distinct possibility.

And if that happened we could be challenging for top 4.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I'd say most of the predictions wouldn't be too different to those before yesterday's game. The 'teams we should beat' remains the same, except we pinched an Adelaide which was a bonus. In the context of discussing finals, the short answer for your question would be yes.

My expectation is the same as yours, that we'll tire and lose more of the 'should win' games than we like.

I disagree.
Surely a win against a top-4 prospect, well, that dominantly, shows we're a better team? You can't honestly think that a 1 point win over Adelaide and a 57 point win over Adelaide makes no difference to how many wins we will get in total.

 

[fargy]

I understand why people are saying our young list might get tired toward the end of the season. That could well happen and it would see us around 10-13th.

However at least as common a phenomenon is that talented young emerging sides suddenly "click", i.e. they start playing at another level. I don't want to be all rainbows and rose coloured glasses but I reckon this is also a distinct possibility.

And if that happened we could be challenging for top 4.

Was actually thinking something similar, like our finish to 2005 and also a little like 2013. With 5 of our last 7 at Etihad that would support that there is as much of a chance as doing this to fading away.

 

[Morris Major]

I disagree.
Surely a win against a top-4 prospect, well, that dominantly, shows we're a better team? You can't honestly think that a 1 point win over Adelaide and a 57 point win over Adelaide makes no difference to how many wins we will get in total.

You're probably right, I'm just trying to keep my expectations under control.

 

[the dog's kennel]

I disagree.
Surely a win against a top-4 prospect, well, that dominantly, shows we're a better team? You can't honestly think that a 1 point win over Adelaide and a 57 point win over Adelaide makes no difference to how many wins we will get in total.

1. We still don't have a handle on how good Adelaide actually is. They did not show up on Sunday. They may not be looking so rosy in 2 months.

2. It shows we're a better team NOW. It has no relevance to how we'll be playing in 2 months time.

But hey, I hope you're right! Just trying to keep on the straight and narrow!

 

[TBOW]

Here's the thing - if we'd lost that match by 60 points, no-one would be predicting we'd make the finals.

But the only difference between that fictional result and where we are at currently is 4 points and a little bit of %. So for those predicting 13 wins, were you predicting 12 wins before yesterday?

Personally, I was predicting 7 or 8 wins. So now I'm predicting 8 or 9. But I just don't want to draw trendlines for form, because I can't see how this team, playing this brand of football, doesn't get extremely tired at some point in the season and lose a bunch of games that it should win.

I began thinking that it MIGHT be a possibility after the Richmond game.

Not because I think that that is where we are as a team but purely due to the nature of the draw.

Before the start of the season I actually thought we were a certainty for bottom 4, but we are clearly playing much better football than I expected us to.

Going into the season we had close to if not the easiest draw. With several games that we were a reasonable chance of winning, we only really needed to pinch a few upsets to be a chance. We have already pinched 3.
Win most of the winnables, pinch a couple more, and we could easily get to the 11-12 win threshold.