the F word....

[cammo78]

Was actually thinking something similar, like our finish to 2005 and also a little like 2013. With 5 of our last 7 at Etihad that would support that there is as much of a chance as doing this to fading away.

Or we could end up like 2007, and completely piss a promising start down the drain being flogged week in, week out.

 

[fargy]

Or we could end up like 2007, and completely piss a promising start down the drain being flogged week in, week out.

Could do, they are equally a chance in my opinion. Just most are saying (in the media) we'll fall away as it's a given, when in my opinion it could go either way.

 

[Norm De Guerre]

Going a little early chaps.

 

[TBOW]

The flipside of all that is I'm not sure I would like to see us limp into the finals in such a soft manner.

If we knock over a couple of Geelong, Collingwood, Essendon, North, West Coast in our run home I'll be ok with it, but if we only win say 2 of our last 8 I think it would be a bad look for the game.

 

[cammo78]

Could do, they are equally a chance in my opinion. Just most are saying (in the media) we'll fall away as it's a given, when in my opinion it could go either way.

I don't think we will, mind you - I think this group is made of sterner stuff than the one that came and went before it, even in these early days.

 

[cammo78]

The flipside of all that is I'm not sure I would like to see us limp into the finals in such a soft manner.

If we knock over a couple of Geelong, Collingwood, Essendon, North, West Coast in our run home I'll be ok with it, but if we only win say 2 of our last 8 I think it would be a bad look for the game.

It's a double-edged sword...

I think missing the finals, particularly in the manner we did in 2005, served us well the following year(s). That said - any finals experience is worth its' weight in gold.

 

[TBOW]

Going a little early chaps.

...nobody's saying nothin...

Just, you know... IF...

 

[Next Waiting]

R5 Sydney away (winnable but unlikely)
R6 Saints home (should win)
R7 Freo away (winnable but unlikely)
R8 Melbourne MCG (very winnable)
R9 GWS home (very winnable)
R10 Port away (winnable but unlikely)
R11 Bye
R12 Brisbane home (should win)
R13 Saints home (should win)
R14 Carlton home (very winnable)
R15 GCS home (should win)
R16 Geelong away (very winnable)
R17 Collingwood home (very winnable)
R18 Essendon away (very winnable)
R19 Port home (winnable but unlikely)
R20 Melbourne home (very winnable)
R21 West Coast away (very winnable)
R22 North away (very winnable)
R23 Brisbane away (very winnable)

Should wins 4
Very winnable 10
Unlikely 4

3 wins already plus 4 should wins plus 6/10 very winnables equals 13 wins.
Player work load management can get us to finals in my view. Specifically, Bont, Stringer and T Boyd should be the ones most carefully managed because the attributes they have are unique weapons within the team and in Bont and Stringers cases, within the league.
Over the next 6 games and till the bye, I'd be happy to rest/manage essential talent for games where a win is possible but unlikely and where a toll could be taken on the player that may compromise them later on. Experimentation the go in the unlikely win fixtures with Sydney, Freo and Port, and sandwiched between these games are targeted very winnable or should win games which I'd prioritise.
Target with full strength teams the first 4 games after the bye which, if won, would go a long way to getting a spot in September and we could have as many as 10 wins from 14 games at round 15 (round 11 is a bye).
Case by case till R21 when some consideration would have to be given to the travel schedule. A lot could happen with WC and North between now and then but it's possible North may be desperate for the 4 points as we are travelling back from Perth. Physcial match and then travel to Brisbane. If we happen to beat two of Geelong, Collingwood or Essendon (rounds 15 - 17) plus Melbourne we may be secure by that time.
3 wins from 4 at the start of the season (who'da thunk it) and a reasonable draw and it (finals) can reasonably be contemplated.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

On 360 they said we shouldn't mention the F word at least until the bye

 

[dogwatch]

Going a little early chaps.

 

[SonOfScray]

Footscray

 

[Next Waiting]

On 360 they said we shouldn't mention the F word at least until the bye

View attachment 128793

Haven't lifted the lid as yet. Just grabbed the handle and adjusted the flame

 

[dogwatch]

Haven't lifted the lid as yet. Just grabbed the handle and adjusted the flame

Ohhhh, I see...
The handle must have been f***ing hot, hence the F word.

 

[AFDogs]

I just hope we don't tire. That was my major concern going into the season. We've taken a hit with injuries, but we seem to be trudging along. Bev just needs to keep on tweaking the team as he's doing and make sure we don't run our best players into the ground.

 

[Cori]

TOO SOON.

 

[Next Waiting]

Ohhhh, I see...
The handle must have been f***ing hot, hence the F word.

I used protection. It's the modern way.....

 

[ossie_21]

Definitely too soon to start a thread like this, even if it isn't intended to be taken seriously.

A week is a long time in football, as such we need to take it one game at a time. Sydney could roll us by 20 goals on the weekend & it will be doomsday again. All I can say is that we have won 3 games out of 4 this season, I seen plenty of predictions that had us pencilled in for wooden spoon or at least bottom 2/3 & we would be lucky to have 3 wins for the year.

Those people are probably now trying to buy tickets on the bandwagon.

 

[JTCWBFC]

Sports bet says we're a 4-1 chance


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[Dav1d]

Geelong, Essendon, West Coast at home & North are games where we need to cause an upset if we are to reach finals

I'm just hoping right now that we don't lose any games that are winnable

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Finals isn't out of the question because we have one of the easiest draws in the elague. It's pretty much worth two more wins. I'd say we're about a 10 win team on value but bump that us to 12 wins because of our easy draw. Compare that to, say, Geelong if you consider that a team around our level, who have a hard draw compared to our easy one.

If we beast Sydney this week I'm penciling in finals.

 

[Super Hans]

This is what I got on the AFL's ladder predictor (didn't put in margins, so % is irrelevant)

Sydney - L
Saints - W
Fremantle - L
Melbourne - W
GWS - W
Port - L
Lions - W
Saints - W
Carlton - W
GC - W
Geelong - L
Collingwood - W
Essendon - L
Port - L
Melbourne - W
Eagles - W
Norf - L
Lions - W

I've been pretty generous though. We could easily lose a couple of games I've given W's to (Melbourne, Collingwood, Carlton, Eagles). But then again, we could beat Geelong and Essendon. I'll keep a lid on it until we play Sydney, Freo and Port. So I guess we'll see at the bye, which comes at a really good time for us.

 

[Reptilia]

I honestly think GWS will finish top 8.
Collingwood won't .

 

[True Dog]

This is what I got on the AFL's ladder predictor (didn't put in margins, so % is irrelevant)

Sydney - L
Saints - W
Fremantle - L
Melbourne - W
GWS - W
Port - L
Lions - W
Saints - W
Carlton - W
GC - W
Geelong - L
Collingwood - W
Essendon - L
Port - L
Melbourne - W
Eagles - W
Norf - L
Lions - W

I've been pretty generous though. We could easily lose a couple of games I've given W's to (Melbourne, Collingwood, Carlton, Eagles). But then again, we could beat Geelong and Essendon. I'll keep a lid on it until we play Sydney, Freo and Port. So I guess we'll see at the bye, which comes at a really good time for us.

Looks like we play the Pies in the elimination final.... Bring it on

 

[threenewpadlocks]

The Squiggle and it's thread on the main page is pretty good.
It has us on 12 wins percentage out of finals.
However, partly because it still uses 2014 results (the most significant being that Round 23 loss), plus the loss against Hawthorn not being representative because of injuries, giving us a bump as a result of that, say between Geelong and GWS levels, we're up to 14 wins and easily in finals.

So, we won't be in the best 8 teams in the league - in fact, I'm assuming we'll be somewhere in the 12-14th range - but an easy draw might get us into finals.
Imagine how big that would be.

 

[Martyn_30_]

Will Libba make a comeback in the finals after finishing in the top 4? Top 4 at the moment is probably only a 50/50 chance.


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