The Federal Budget Surplus

[Dry Rot]

IIRC, it looks like company tax receipts will be down by about $10 billion this year (as indicated by this company reporting season).

So where does that leave Wayne's magical budget surplus?

 

[Footy Smarts]

IIRC, it looks like company tax receipts will be down by about $10 billion this year (as indicated by this company reporting season).

So where does that leave Wayne's magical budget surplus?

Emerson was saying on the weekend that they made very conservative estimates particularly on mining. Considering the global economy you'd damn well hope so. I'd say if they're even a whiff of a chance to get back in they'll do everything to get the surplus. If the polls dip back to the 58-42 type level they'll probably not bother and instead look to fund the NDIS and Gonski more fully. Removing them once already "funded" would do the coalition heaps of damage.

 

[Dry Rot]

Emerson was saying on the weekend that they made very conservative estimates particularly on mining. Considering the global economy you'd damn well hope so. I'd say if they're even a whiff of a chance to get back in they'll do everything to get the surplus. If the polls dip back to the 58-42 type level they'll probably not bother and instead look to fund the NDIS and Gonski more fully. Removing them once already "funded" would do the coalition heaps of damage.

I think the hole will be bigger than they bargained for, and they've pulled all their tricks already to get their bullshit surplus.

IIRC the NDIS is pretty much unfunded? In any event, most people don't give a s**t about it.

 

[noddy]

I think the hole will be bigger than they bargained for, and they've pulled all their tricks already to get their bullshit surplus.

IIRC the NDIS is pretty much unfunded? In any event, most people don't give a s**t about it.

Can't believe you said that.

 

[Dry Rot]

Can't believe you said that.

Why? Do you honestly think it is a high profile issue for most people?

BTW, FWIW I reckon a scheme like that is a good thing, if it is ever fully funded.

 

[Todman]

It was never real in the first place. We're twelve months from an election ,Julia will call an election before the actual budget figures are released in September because LABOR AND SURPLUSES ARE ANOTHER GREAT LIE.

 

[pjcrows]

The NDIS is a huge issue for many people DR.

 

[Dry Rot]

The NDIS is a huge issue for many people DR.

I'm sure it is for those directly affected, but beyond that?

 

[Visions]

IIRC, it looks like company tax receipts will be down by about $10 billion this year (as indicated by this company reporting season).

So where does that leave Wayne's magical budget surplus?

It was a fairy tale when it was announced, and it will continue to be a fairy tale as we go along.

Labor will announce more cost cutting measures come MYEFO, but lets face it this current government wouldn't have a clue how to come in under budget for anything.

 

[Slax]

It was never real in the first place. We're twelve months from an election ,Julia will call an election before the actual budget figures are released in September because LABOR AND SURPLUSES ARE ANOTHER GREAT LIE.

Anybody thinking that they run a surplus in the current environment is mad.

 

[Slax]

It was a fairy tale when it was announced, and it will continue to be a fairy tale as we go along.

Labor will announce more cost cutting measures come MYEFO, but lets face it this current government wouldn't have a clue how to come in under budget for anything.

I just can't wait to see the Liberal Party costings to deliver all the so called cuts to revenue that Abbott has promised, where do tehy expect to find $70B from? Or are they non-core promises?

 

[Bodicifer]

Just like his last budget, about 100% off the mark!!! Freakin' hopeless, when are voters finally going to wake up? Lots of dumb people who are obviously allowed to vote!

 

[kimp]

I'm sure it is for those directly affected, but beyond that?

Everyone with a kid in school is directly affected.

 

[PottSie2]

Everyone with a kid in school is directly affected.

NDIS or Gonski ?

 

[burto]

I just can't wait to see the Liberal Party costings to deliver all the so called cuts to revenue that Abbott has promised, where do tehy expect to find $70B from? Or are they non-core promises?

Getting rid of 50,000 do-nothing public servants at 60k a year gives you $3bn.

Took me 30 seconds to find $3b in savings. Cannot be that hard to find the rest given the fat that the ALP has introduced into the federal bureaucracy.

 

[Slax]

Getting rid of 50,000 do-nothing public servants at 60k a year gives you $3bn.

Took me 30 seconds to find $3b in savings. Cannot be that hard to find the rest given the fat that the ALP has introduced into the federal bureaucracy.

Your sums are as hopeless as Abbott's. According to the official figures there were 165,000 federal public servants in 2010, so you really think that we can get rid of 30% of the public service?

Attempt one at cost cutting - fail.

Liberal Party themselves are talking of number of about 12,000

 

[Footy Smarts]

Getting rid of 50,000 do-nothing public servants at 60k a year gives you $3bn.

Took me 30 seconds to find $3b in savings. Cannot be that hard to find the rest given the fat that the ALP has introduced into the federal bureaucracy.

Minus the tax you get back that each of those PS pay on their salary. At the moment that's about $11k per person minus some offsets let's call it $10k per person. So already we're down to $2.5B in savings.

Let's say that on average 10% of those put out of a job are left out of a job long-term. That's another $50M+ gone from your "savings" in dole payments. Of course none of this considers the multiplier effect of this spending throughout the economy and the money that generates in tax receipts. It also doesn't consider loss in productivity due to loss in services or anything else like that. It also doesn't consider the political implications which no party would be willing to do.

But hey if you want to go down the Britain austerity route go ahead. It's worked so well for them.

 

[Slax]

Minus the tax you get back that each of those PS pay on their salary. At the moment that's about $11k per person minus some offsets let's call it $10k per person. So already we're down to $2.5B in savings.

Let's say that on average 10% of those put out of a job are left out of a job long-term. That's another $50M+ gone from your "savings" in dole payments. Of course none of this considers the multiplier effect of this spending throughout the economy and the money that generates in tax receipts. It also doesn't consider loss in productivity due to loss in services or anything else like that. It also doesn't consider the political implications which no party would be willing to do.

But hey if you want to go down the Britain austerity route go ahead. It's worked so well for them.

Also need to add in redundancy costs. On average would be about $20K so there goes another $1B

 

[Footy Smarts]

Also need to add in redundancy costs. On average would be about $20K so there goes another $1B

Of course.

 

[burto]

Your sums are as hopeless as Abbott's. According to the official figures there were 165,000 federal public servants in 2010, so you really think that we can get rid of 30% of the public service?

Attempt one at cost cutting - fail.

Liberal Party themselves are talking of number of about 12,000

I would argue that 30% of the public service do not do anything productive, yes.

 

[Slax]

I would argue that 30% of the public service do not do anything productive, yes.

Just hope you don't need to use your new public service for anything then because you'll be waiting a while.

 

[Gough]

I would argue that 30% of the public service do not do anything productive, yes.

On what basis do you see 30% of the public service having no value? Which departments are we talking about specifically here, where would you make the cuts?

 

[burto]

Minus the tax you get back that each of those PS pay on their salary. At the moment that's about $11k per person minus some offsets let's call it $10k per person. So already we're down to $2.5B in savings.

Let's say that on average 10% of those put out of a job are left out of a job long-term. That's another $50M+ gone from your "savings" in dole payments. Of course none of this considers the multiplier effect of this spending throughout the economy and the money that generates in tax receipts. It also doesn't consider loss in productivity due to loss in services or anything else like that. It also doesn't consider the political implications which no party would be willing to do.

But hey if you want to go down the Britain austerity route go ahead. It's worked so well for them.

You are neglecting the fact that public servants do not create wealth. If 10% of those put out of a public service job are left out of a job long-term, then it means 90% of them have a new job that is more productive than their old and is adding incrementally to GDP. Whether an economy has 50 GDP creating, private sector workers and 50 non-wealth creating public servants, or 50 GDP creating private sector workers and 50 unemployed people, total GDP is the same and will be split amongst 100 people.

Public servants are paid for by allocating funds from the productive private sector to the non-productive public sector. The less resources tied up in unproductive government enterprise, the more available for productive enterprise.

There are 3 people stuck on an island. 2 of them are productive resources and start picking coconuts to eat, and they each pick 5 coconuts per day. That is 10 coconuts per day of economic activity. The third person sits (the public servant) sits down all day observing that the 2 productive workers are adhering to correct coconut picking procedures and compliance with all necessary regulations. Total output is 10 coconuts per day.

Instead, the 3rd person gets fired from his supervisory role and is forced to join the coconut picking productive workforce. He picks 5 coconuts per day. The total economic output is 15 coconuts per day.

Would you prefer 10 coconuts per day or 15 coconuts per day? I would have thought each individual would prefer to consume 5 coconuts each per day, rather than 3.33.

 

[Gough]

So you are basing your need to slash the public service by 30% on some sort of tortured fruit analogy. Congratulation you are now qualified to be a minister in the Campbell Newman government.

 

[Slax]

You are neglecting the fact that public servants do not create wealth. If 10% of those put out of a public service job are left out of a job long-term, then it means 90% of them have a new job that is more productive than their old and is adding incrementally to GDP. Whether an economy has 50 GDP creating, private sector workers and 50 non-wealth creating public servants, or 50 GDP creating private sector workers and 50 unemployed people, total GDP is the same and will be split amongst 100 people.

Public servants are paid for by allocating funds from the productive private sector to the non-productive public sector. The less resources tied up in unproductive government enterprise, the more available for productive enterprise.

There are 3 people stuck on an island. 2 of them are productive resources and start picking coconuts to eat, and they each pick 5 coconuts per day. That is 10 coconuts per day of economic activity. The third person sits (the public servant) sits down all day observing that the 2 productive workers are adhering to correct coconut picking procedures and compliance with all necessary regulations. Total output is 10 coconuts per day.

Instead, the 3rd person gets fired from his supervisory role and is forced to join the coconut picking productive workforce. He picks 5 coconuts per day. The total economic output is 15 coconuts per day.

Would you prefer 10 coconuts per day or 15 coconuts per day? I would have thought each individual would prefer to consume 5 coconuts each per day, rather than 3.33.

Unfortunately life isn't that simple. Person 3 might oversee worker 1 & 2, but person 3 also provides the health care, the infrastructure and other services that enable worker 1 and 2 to go and pick the coconuts.

Just hope 1, 2 and 3 don't get sick or fall out of the tree in your world.