The Final Four - Who Drops Out Next Year?

[Damon_3388]

In 2010, the same four teams (Collingwood, St Kilda, Geelong and Western Bulldogs) made the Preliminary Final stage as did the year before. This is the last time that happened. Every year since, two teams drop down from the year before, and two new teams replace them:

2014
- Sydney
- Hawthorn
- Port Adelaide
- North Melbourne

2013
- Hawthorn
- Fremantle
- Geelong
- Sydney

2012
- Sydney
- Hawthorn
- Adelaide
- Collingwood

2011
- Geelong
- Collingwood
- Hawthorn
- West Coast

2010
- Collingwood
- St Kilda
- Western Bulldogs
- Geelong

2009
- Geelong
- St Kilda
- Western Bulldogs
- Collingwood

St Kilda and Western Bulldogs dropped out in 2011.
Geelong and West Coast dropped out in 2012.
Adelaide and Collingwood dropped out in 2013.
Fremantle and Geelong dropped out in 2014.

Will the trend continue in 2015?

Which team - Sydney, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide or North Melbourne - is most likely to drop down next season?

 

[The GOAT]

North

 

[HODGEYROAD]

North

 

[Hawkk]

Potentially Hawthorn.

4th year in the top 4 (and potentially 3rd crack at a GF) so we are due to fall a bit. Wouldn't be surprised if we had a year next year not dissimilar to Geelong in 2012.

It'll all depend ultimately on how we approach trading and Free Agency in October

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Potentially Hawthorn.

4th year in the top 4 (and potentially 3rd crack at a GF) so we are due to fall a bit. Wouldn't be surprised if we had a year next year not dissimilar to Geelong in 2012

It may seem strange but I think the chances of this increase if we go b2b.

 

[DerpWerls]

Recommend voting for All of them for the lulz

 

[pazza]

Sydney.

The list is ageing as fast as anyone elses.

 

[cinderella man]

Sydney.

The list is ageing as fast as anyone elses.

For the last 15 years in a row.

 

[Moist Biscuit]

2 of them potentially could. Both Geelong and Freo had bad runs with injury at the wrong end of the season and both are still top 4 threats next year IMO.

 

[Hawkk]

Sydney.

The list is ageing as fast as anyone elses.

Just on this...

http://www.footyjunkie.com.au/features/how-experienced-is-your-club-in-2014/

Fremantle 24.90
Sydney 24.78
Carlton 24.52
North Melbourne 24.49
Hawthorn 24.47
St Kilda 24.22
Adelaide 24.20
Richmond 24.17
Essendon 23.97
Geelong 23.97
W Bulldogs 23.93
West Coast 23.93
Collingwood 23.87
Brisbane 23.84
Melbourne 23.71
Port Adelaide 23.34
Gold Coast 23.04
GWS 21.90

Make of that list what you will...

 

[Bomberblitzer]

For the last 15 years in a row.

Have you been in the top 4 for 15 years in a row?

 

[clogged]

Sydney's ability to pay more means they can afford a more experienced squad. The usual notions that old sides will have to drop only works if they are subject to the same salary cap concerns of having to rotate out fringe players of 100+ games experience for new youth. Sydney can afford to keep more of that depth around. They have one of the top two or three oldest lists in the comp every year.

Sydney also have good core of players between 21-30, their old blokes are somewhat expendable. They don't need Goodes, Shaw, Malceski next year. Only one who is absolutely necessary over 30 is Ted Richards.

Hawthorn's core of talent is very close to 30 or over however. They are a bit like Geelong in 2011. I can see them dropping next year.

North are a maybe for a drop out. This finals series might give them the realisation they can match it with the best and let them stamp out their habit of dropping games they shouldn't.

Port are my favourites for the flag next year.

 

[Hawkk]

Sydney's ability to pay more means they can afford a more experienced squad. The usual notions that old sides will have to drop only works if they are subject to the same salary cap concerns of having to rotate out fringe players of 100+ games experience for new youth. Sydney can afford to keep more of that depth around. They have one of the top two or three oldest lists in the comp every year.

Sydney also have good core of players between 21-30, their old blokes are somewhat expendable. They don't need Goodes, Shaw, Malceski next year. Only one who is absolutely necessary over 30 is Ted Richards.

Hawthorn's core of talent is very close to 30 or over however. They are a bit like Geelong in 2011. I can see them dropping next year.

North are a maybe for a drop out. This finals series might give them the realisation they can match it with the best and let them stamp out their habit of dropping games they shouldn't.

Port are my favourites for the flag next year.

Agree with this. Hawthorn's ability to retain its status as a top 4 club will be determined on the basis of how active they are in the upcoming Free Agency and trade period. If we can land some players (with what most believe to be a war chest of money) we can sustain our run at the top. If not, we'll drop to 5th, 6th next year and return to our 2009 / 2010 state of mini rebuild

 

[clogged]

Agree with this. Hawthorn's ability to retain its status as a top 4 club will be determined on the basis of how active they are in the upcoming Free Agency and trade period. If we can land some players (with what most believe to be a war chest of money) we can sustain our run at the top. If not, we'll drop to 5th, 6th next year and return to our 2009 / 2010 state of mini rebuild

Yeah, even so, I count Burgoyne, Mitchell, Lake, Sewell, Gibson, Hale and Hodge as your players over 30. That's a fairly essential group. The next best players outside that under 30 are Roughead, Rioli and Lewis. I'd start to sneak Gunston and Hill in there.

Hawks will have a hard decision to make next year - whether to push on with that senior group again or dip a year or so to remake the team. That might get taken out of your hands if certain key players decide to retire on a premiership winning high.

 

[Papa G]

Potentially Hawthorn.

4th year in the top 4 (and potentially 3rd crack at a GF) so we are due to fall a bit. Wouldn't be surprised if we had a year next year not dissimilar to Geelong in 2012.

It'll all depend ultimately on how we approach trading and Free Agency in October

7 of Hawks best 22 are over 30.

 

[Hawkk]

Yeah, even so, I count Burgoyne, Mitchell, Lake, Sewell, Gibson, Hale and Hodge as your players over 30. That's a fairly essential group. The next best players outside that under 30 are Roughead, Rioli and Lewis. I'd start to sneak Gunston and Hill in there.

Hawks will have a hard decision to make next year - whether to push on with that senior group again or dip a year or so to remake the team. That might get taken out of your hands if certain key players decide to retire on a premiership winning high.

Like I said we had a similar dip in 2009/2010 and I can see us having another one again. Its often forgotten that we finished 7th and 9th between 2008 and 2011...and it looked very dicey in 2010 when we were 1-7.

Flags in 2008 and 2013 (and potentially 2014) bookmarked that dicey period

 

[Hawkk]

7 of Hawks best 22 are over 30.

That's incredibly subjective but thanks for your concern.

Evidently we have 7 players on our list over 30.

Lake (32), Burgoyne (31), Mitchell (31), Gibson (30), Sewell (30), Hodge (30), Hale (30)

Of those players its debatable if Sewell (30) and Hale (30) are best 22 players.

Like I said, we'll need to hit FA if we want to stay a top 4 club. As part of the clubs 2013/17 business plan it has targeted 5 years of successive top 4 finishes as an objective

 

[Damon_3388]

That's incredibly subjective but thanks for your concern.

The question is, can clubs carry over-30s on their list as "depth players" anymore?

 

[The_Ru]

Just on this...

http://www.bigfooty.com.au/features/how-experienced-is-your-club-in-2014/

Fremantle 24.90
Sydney 24.78
Carlton 24.52
North Melbourne 24.49
Hawthorn 24.47
St Kilda 24.22
Adelaide 24.20
Richmond 24.17
Essendon 23.97
Geelong 23.97
W Bulldogs 23.93
West Coast 23.93
Collingwood 23.87
Brisbane 23.84
Melbourne 23.71
Port Adelaide 23.34
Gold Coast 23.04
GWS 21.90

Make of that list what you will...

This list is pointless. What you really need is a weighted average based on games played in 2014.

 

[Papa G]

That's incredibly subjective but thanks for your concern.

So Lake, Burgoyne, Hale, Mitchell, Hodge, Gibson and Sewell aren't in your best 22?

 

[clogged]

Like I said we had a similar dip in 2009/2010 and I can see us having another one again. Its often forgotten that we finished 7th and 9th between 2008 and 2011...and it looked very dicey in 2010 when we were 1-7.

Flags in 2008 and 2013 (and potentially 2014) bookmarked that dicey period

The thing is I can't think of any clubs that played compelling enough footy in 2014 to dislodge Hawthorn as a top four side in 2015.

North were better in 2013 than their finish suggested - choking in close games, but generally had a healthy percentage and were never thrashed. This year they've been lucky to face two weaker sides in finals than you'd normally expect, so a prelim is a bonus. I still think they have the capacity to improve though.

And Port were the most impressive side from outside the top four in last year's finals. The only surprise is that they didn't finish top four in H&A. Well deserved prelim finalists though.

Maybe it will be West Coast? Maybe Adelaide? Freo and Geelong are both cooked IMO. Richmond and Essendon are straight out no for me. Collingwood are sliding to bottom four, and Gold Coast still don't look ready to take that next step.

Maybe Hawks will return by default?

 

[Hawkk]

So Lake, Burgoyne, Hale, Mitchell, Hodge, Gibson and Sewell aren't in your best 22?

Sewell and Hale are debatable.

The major talking point at the moment is whether or not Rioli (25) and McEvoy (26) will replace Sewell (30) and Hale (30) for this weekends game. McEvoy starred in the VFL Preliminary Final where our reserve grade side will again play in the Grand Final. Evidently we blooded 9 debutants this season which was the most of any in the competition

 

[tigers_of_old_08]

Every year since, two teams drop down from the year before, and two new teams replace them:

Will the trend continue in 2015?

QUOTE]

You suggest a trend (2 teams out) yet your poll only allows us to drop one.
Please explain.

 

[Damon_3388]

You suggest a trend (2 teams out) yet your poll only allows us to drop one.

Please explain?

I didn't select the multiple option I suppose.

 

[Papa G]

Sewell and Hale are debatable.

The major talking point at the moment is whether or not Rioli (25) and McEvoy (26) will replace Sewell (30) and Hale (30) for this weekends game. McEvoy starred in the VFL Preliminary Final where our reserve grade side will again play in the Grand Final. Evidently we blooded 9 debutants this season which was the most of any in the competition

Sewell is debatable, I don't think Hale is.