The Final Four - Who Drops Out Next Year?

The Final Four - Who Drops Out Next Year?

  • Sydney

    Votes: 21 6.8%
  • Hawthorn

    Votes: 49 15.9%
  • Port Adelaide

    Votes: 19 6.1%
  • North Melbourne

    Votes: 176 57.0%
  • All of them

    Votes: 18 5.8%
  • None of them

    Votes: 26 8.4%

  • Total voters
    309
Aug 8, 2007
24,634
29,161
Melbourne
AFL Club
Geelong
Sydney will be fine - their over 30s are not essential for their structures.

Fremantle's over 30s are almost all structurally important (Pav, Sandilands, McPharlin).

Hawthorn's is a massive core of midfield talent with some structurally important players (Hale & Lake)

Geelong are in a similar boat to Hawthorn. (although I only count 7)

We have 7 now. We'll have 9 by next year (Stokes and Rivers), provided there are no retirements this year, which seems to be the case.
 

clogged

Brownlow Medallist
10k Posts
Apr 4, 2013
13,670
16,890
AFL Club
Fremantle
We have 7 now. We'll have 9 by next year (Stokes and Rivers), provided there are no retirements this year, which seems to be the case.
I'd rather count from now than next year, I don't really want to write off players prematurely.
 
...Make of those numbers what you will but the big four of recent years (Geelong, Hawthorn, Sydney and Fremantle) all have some work to do in order to list rebuild.

The North Melbourne / Essendon numbers both surprise me...

We don't have a back-up ruck but a couple of projects in the NEAFL.
We don't have strong KPD but a couple of projects in the NEAFL.

Other than that, we will have Tippo/Buddy/Reid for the foreseeable future.
Our midfield is ridiculously young with a couple of highly rated father-sons + academy picks to come.

We don't need a rebuild, we can go about our usual business of cherry picking what we need.
 

Winter

Club Legend
Jan 3, 2013
1,880
2,418
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Will be interesting to see how North go when they don't get a draw from heaven like this season.

We beat the Top-10 teams this season while dropping games to 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th & 15th.

What on earth did our draw have to do with finishing where we did?
 

Zarrix

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 15, 2008
5,886
2,229
Perth
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Everton
Reckon Sydney, Port and Hawthorn will all be top four next year unless something goes wrong for any of them. Reckon North could be a frequent top four candidate if they get a better coach. But Brad is there for sure now. West Coast and Adelaide scream top four potential, especially with their interstate advantage but at this point in time are just flat track bullies. Thinking one of them stops being a bully and goes top four next season .
 
Sewell is debatable, I don't think Hale is.
He most definitely is. 3 weeks out from finals a fair chunk of Hawk posters were gnashing their teeth at him still getting games based on reputation rather than output.

His last month has been good, but it really needs to be with Ceglar and McEvoy breathing down his neck.
 
Sep 5, 2007
16,222
13,040
Gippsland, Victoria
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Liverpool, Nashville predators
Hawthorn's drop off will depend on whether guys like Hallahan, Woodward, Anderson, Langford, Hartung etc develop. Of that group, only Langford has cemented himself in the side. Hallahan and Woodward look promosing, whilst Hartung and Anderson look likely to be the best of the lot. If we can get another year or two out of our ageing mids to give these guys a chance to develop, then replace these guys.

Lake and Gibson will go in the next 2 or so years, but hopefully Schoey continues to develop like he was pre-knee injury.

Other than that, just need to trade well and use free agency well
 

B4Bear

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 6, 2011
8,215
16,492
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Well they beat Sydney as well this year, who's to say Sydney doesn't start slowly again and North get them early.



Of course :drunk: I can almost guarantee you said that this year. I'm not saying they won't fall out of the 4, but considering their record this year v top teams, I hardly think 'their soft draw' was the reason for them making the prelims (7-2 v the top 7 teams)


Some people are starting the 'North had a soft draw' meme early this year. It is their self justification for us making the prelims.

Every year we hear that there are no pretenders in prelims, except this year. Weakened Essendon (so much on their mind) and an aging Geelong that were never in the hunt anyway are starting to gain momentum.

Not that I expected anything different. Even wins on the board count for nothing on BF.
 

Petrie4PM

Team Captain
Aug 4, 2013
518
613
AFL Club
North Melbourne
It may seem strange but I think the chances of this increase if we go b2b.


This. Probably Hawks, but wouldn't be surprised if kangas under perform in next years finals just because it's us and it's what we do.
 

Petrie4PM

Team Captain
Aug 4, 2013
518
613
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Just on this...

http://www.bigfooty.com.au/features/how-experienced-is-your-club-in-2014/

Fremantle 24.90
Sydney 24.78
Carlton 24.52
North Melbourne 24.49
Hawthorn 24.47
St Kilda 24.22
Adelaide 24.20
Richmond 24.17
Essendon 23.97
Geelong 23.97
W Bulldogs 23.93
West Coast 23.93
Collingwood 23.87
Brisbane 23.84
Melbourne 23.71
Port Adelaide 23.34
Gold Coast 23.04
GWS 21.90

Make of that list what you will...


Do outliers like O Keefe (33/34) and Boomer (36) and Fletcher (39) make too much of a difference in the results?
 

cardje

All Australian
May 6, 2011
889
923
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Top 8 Teams
Cats - In my opinion were bit lucky to make top 4 were not as good as port. Have a few issues they need to address.
Hawks - Surely still have 1 more year after this at absolutely top form
Swans- Not going anywhere
North - Depends for us, if we learn from this finals series and actually back it up next year and play this well think we can make top 4 otherwise will be around 5th or 6th. We need to cut out the crap losses. Lucky our draw will be harder lol could make or break us.
Port - Really rate them as a side!
Tigers - Who knows really depends what side comes out
Essendon - Depends what happens off season
 

cardje

All Australian
May 6, 2011
889
923
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Not sure why people right now rate us behind port. Finished with same amount of wins, won 6 in a row and beaten every team in top 8. I understand we lost to blues and lions but lets put it in perspective. Everyone basing us on first half vs essendon and last 15 minutes vs cats and forgetting the fact for 5 quarters of finals football we were clearly ahead of out opposition.
They beat tigers clearly weakest team of finals and beat Freo who has more injuries than cats and were sore and wasted the first half.
We beat Essendon in a second half that is correct but week after completely dismantled the cats for 3 1/2 quarters.
 
May 13, 2008
36,308
57,842
Melbourne
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Sewell is debatable, I don't think Hale is.

He might not be debatable but McEvoy is sitting there as his replacement so it is not really a problem. Sewell is hanging on by a thread.

There is no doubt that the Hawks have to replace some very important players. There is also no doubt that there is a very good core group of players in their peak age group. So it is doable. Jed Anderson is one of them. Schoenmakers is maybe another. Lets see what Graham Wright has got up his sleave for the other replacements.

On the OP's question, Geelong will not make top 4. Sydney are a maybe to fall out with a few key OLDER guys further exposing holes in their list (Pyke, Richards, Shaw, Mal - that is their only ruck and half their backline who are getting close to the end). Hawks are a chance to drop as well for the same reasons.
 
North on Bigfooty is like South Sydney on League Unlimited.

It's impossible to have any rational discussion about the team without trolls rearing their ugly head.

Umm that was a joke.

You want an answer to the OP?

Any answer given in this thread regardless of how well statistically backed up with age and experience reasons for a side to drop out is a guess.

Any of the sides could have an injury plagued preseason, or cop big injuries early in the year they cannot recover from.

Looking at the 2014 H&A season as historical data to try and ascertain who will drop out and it would have to be North due to inconsistency. However perhaps the Elimination final was a turning point. The only way you know a turning point is in hindsight and we are not there yet. The funny thing about using historical data is that last weekend I was convinced that because only twice in the current format of the finals had a team won through to the prelim from the bottom half of the 8 that Freo and Geelong were montys for the prelims. History indicated it would be the likely outcome. Now in hindsight how does that look?
 
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