Plenty of threads about various issues surrounding the EU, so I thought I'd try to make an all encompassing one here focused on the future (or lack thereof depending on your outlook) of the EU.
Today the Swiss removed the 3 year peg the Franc has had with the Euro, essentially leaving their de facto membership of the Eurozone. The Swiss Franc has since surged ~30% and has set negative interest rates at 0.75% (meaning you pay to keep your money in a bank) and there is official talk that may increase to 1.25%.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...ss-franc-surges-after-scrapping-euro-peg.html
A lot of people in Central and Eastern Europe have loans in Swiss Franc denomination which have suddenly become ~30% more expensive to finance. Austria, Poland, Hungary and Romania have differing levels of exposure along with many banks in Switzerland and the EU. There will be enormous pressure in Poland who have Presidential and Parliamentary elections coming up this year for a potential package to bailout struggling mortgage holders. There is a good chance it could lead to further weakening to an already dire situation in the European Economy.
On top of this the European Central Bank is likely to start a program of Quantitative easing, essentially printing money out of thin air, next week. Germany and more importantly the German electorate have been strongly against this kind of action since the financial crisis began. Much of this resistance is born out of the rampant inflation in the 1930s and the resultant Nazi Government. Along with the fact that much of the risk of the whole eurozone's debts will be placed on Germany's shoulders. Such is fear over the rest of Europe's debts, you currently actually pay the German Government to lend the German Government money!
The AfD (Alternative for Germany) is an anti-euro anti-EU (Not anti-eurozone, google if your confused) party that has seen its support grow from nearly nothing to 4.7% in 2013 general elections, just shy of the 5% that gets you representation. Last year in some states elections within Germany it grabbed over ~10% of the vote and won 7 seats in the European Parliament. QE is likely to anger a lot of German's and will likely see the AfD support increase in the leadup to 2017 elections.
Greeks have upcoming elections that are likely to put in power a Government vehemently opposed to austerity measures forced upon them by the EU, but who are also likely to vote in substantial numbers of parliamentarians, or even, a Government who want out of the Euro or the EU.
Along with Greece and Poland, the UK, Spain, Denmark, Finland, Portugal and Estonia all have elections this year. With the UK in particular likely to see substantial support for the anti-EU, anti-immigration UKIP, who may even find themselves in a Coalition Government.
Sweden's Government and opposition parties have come to an agreement to pass budget bills in order to prevent snap elections that would likely have seen the Swedish Democrats, another anti-EU, anti-immigration party potentially becoming at the very least the main opposition party. The Swedish democrats just yesterday called for a vote of no-confidence in the current Prime Minister.
France's National Front, another anti-immigration anti-EU party, led by Marine Le Pen leads or is second in almost all Presidential polling. Support which is expected to strengthen in light of the recent terror attacks in Paris.
I won't get into more detail and into others like in Hungary, but the main point is there has been a surge in anti-EU commission, anti-Euro and anti-immigration party support throughout Europe. Many would read this and say ~10% isn't enough to change governments, but in Europe many major parties require a coalition party to form government, and if, as the current trends seem to suggest, the support for these parties continues to grow we'll likely see ,at the very least, anti-EU parties as the main opposition in many countries over the next few years.
I've run out of space so I'll briefly continue below!
Today the Swiss removed the 3 year peg the Franc has had with the Euro, essentially leaving their de facto membership of the Eurozone. The Swiss Franc has since surged ~30% and has set negative interest rates at 0.75% (meaning you pay to keep your money in a bank) and there is official talk that may increase to 1.25%.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...ss-franc-surges-after-scrapping-euro-peg.html
A lot of people in Central and Eastern Europe have loans in Swiss Franc denomination which have suddenly become ~30% more expensive to finance. Austria, Poland, Hungary and Romania have differing levels of exposure along with many banks in Switzerland and the EU. There will be enormous pressure in Poland who have Presidential and Parliamentary elections coming up this year for a potential package to bailout struggling mortgage holders. There is a good chance it could lead to further weakening to an already dire situation in the European Economy.
On top of this the European Central Bank is likely to start a program of Quantitative easing, essentially printing money out of thin air, next week. Germany and more importantly the German electorate have been strongly against this kind of action since the financial crisis began. Much of this resistance is born out of the rampant inflation in the 1930s and the resultant Nazi Government. Along with the fact that much of the risk of the whole eurozone's debts will be placed on Germany's shoulders. Such is fear over the rest of Europe's debts, you currently actually pay the German Government to lend the German Government money!
The AfD (Alternative for Germany) is an anti-euro anti-EU (Not anti-eurozone, google if your confused) party that has seen its support grow from nearly nothing to 4.7% in 2013 general elections, just shy of the 5% that gets you representation. Last year in some states elections within Germany it grabbed over ~10% of the vote and won 7 seats in the European Parliament. QE is likely to anger a lot of German's and will likely see the AfD support increase in the leadup to 2017 elections.
Greeks have upcoming elections that are likely to put in power a Government vehemently opposed to austerity measures forced upon them by the EU, but who are also likely to vote in substantial numbers of parliamentarians, or even, a Government who want out of the Euro or the EU.
Along with Greece and Poland, the UK, Spain, Denmark, Finland, Portugal and Estonia all have elections this year. With the UK in particular likely to see substantial support for the anti-EU, anti-immigration UKIP, who may even find themselves in a Coalition Government.
Sweden's Government and opposition parties have come to an agreement to pass budget bills in order to prevent snap elections that would likely have seen the Swedish Democrats, another anti-EU, anti-immigration party potentially becoming at the very least the main opposition party. The Swedish democrats just yesterday called for a vote of no-confidence in the current Prime Minister.
France's National Front, another anti-immigration anti-EU party, led by Marine Le Pen leads or is second in almost all Presidential polling. Support which is expected to strengthen in light of the recent terror attacks in Paris.
I won't get into more detail and into others like in Hungary, but the main point is there has been a surge in anti-EU commission, anti-Euro and anti-immigration party support throughout Europe. Many would read this and say ~10% isn't enough to change governments, but in Europe many major parties require a coalition party to form government, and if, as the current trends seem to suggest, the support for these parties continues to grow we'll likely see ,at the very least, anti-EU parties as the main opposition in many countries over the next few years.
I've run out of space so I'll briefly continue below!
