The Hawthorn demise

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Apr 6, 2008
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Obviously a large percentage of replies to this thread are going to be trolls, so I'm going to do my best not get caught on the bait and I'm hoping you can avoid it too.

I know Essendon fans are sposed to hate Hawthorn, however, I never got that or the North thing. They were always clubs with smaller fan bases and not in the same premiership race. Though Clarkson is getting Hawthorn up there with Essendon, Carlton and Collingwood and some great marketing initiatives have seen their membership base challenge the big 4, and hopefully will still be up there when they drop off on field.

So as I haven't had the hate I've really enjoyed the rivalry between Geelong and Hawthorn over the last 7-8 years and that both teams have generated success playing attractive footy. I love that at the height of their successes they have both been like a real club with lots of players developed at their clubs for their style. They have also had successful VFL teams. Hawthorns success in 2014 still stands out to me as one of the greatest of all time when you take into account losing Buddy and then the injuries they suffered that year, including Clarkson missing out.

They have topped up as they go in the last few years plugging gaps, but none could really be considered stars. I'd only say that Burgoyne was a star recruit, and that was a number of years ago now. However, consistently finishing so high they have not had access to great draft picks and they have lost a young up and commer this year in Anderson. Lewis, Burgoyne, Hodge and Mitchell don't have long to go. There is a demise coming, and end to this amazing era. I don't think it'll be this year, but it wouldn't be a huge surprise if they did slip back a few pegs this year.

How do you see the demise panning out? Will they lose a GF or prelim one year, slip down to making the numbers up in the top eight and then stay middle of the road like Geelong and Sydney have? Will they crash and burn like Saints did post Ross or Brisbane and Essendon did a decade ago?

I'm not too sure, which is why I'm creating this thread. Hawthorn views in particular would be interesting. Despite my ignorance on the list and what way the Hawks will go about rebuilding I get the feeling that they won't drop off for a complete rebuild and Clarkson would prefer to keep developing players for his game plan. I also get the feeling that he'll start letting guys like Smith, for example, go after the drop off and trade them for overs as "Premiership players" for a few years, which allow the club to have three picks inside thirty for a few years.
 
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How badly we 'drop off' will depend on a combination of three factors:
1) Improvements in other teams (e.g. Eagles, Port, Bulldogs, GWS)
2) Development of the young/fringe players in the team. Keep in mind that Box Hill have played in the VFL Grand Final the last 3 years, so the quality is there. Players like O'Rourke, Hartung, Brand, Sicily, Howe all have the potential to be A grade in their position - but do they get there?
3) Trading/Free Agency - we have done it before with Burgoyne, Lake, Hale and Gibson. If we can grab that 1 or 2 players we need to replace Hodge/Mitchell then the drop off may not be as drastic as other teams are hoping.

Of course there are other factors as well such as injuries, but I think the three points are the things that will have the greatest effect on the hawks in the next 3-4 years.
 

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Obviously a large percentage of replies to this thread are going to be trolls, so I'm going to do my best not get caught on the bait and I'm hoping you can avoid it too. .

Fail no 1
They were always clubs with smaller fan bases and not in the same premiership race.

Fail no 2
I love that at the height of their successes they have both been like a real club

Fail no 3
I'm not too sure, which is why I'm creating this thread.

Im not sure ive ever read a more troll worthy opening gambit. Bizarre to see how a reasionable question was approached with such arrogance, insecurity and blindness.

Your best work was when you outed your own club fur being a hive of pharmaceutical debauchery, that's more your patch.

Good question, the approach and landing was s**t
 
If we pick up a big free agent midfielder this next off-season we will be alright for a few years.

The next crop are ready to come through as did Bruest, Smith, Shiels, Suckling, Stratton and Puopolo in 2011.

As Sirlemsip said O'Rourke is a #2 draft pick so who knows how good he could be, Hartung has regularly got a game in this team that is tough to get into, Sicily has showed a bit in his little exposure and it appears as if the club think that Howe is the next big thing. That doesn't take Burton into account who was going to be the #1 pick 12 months ago.

Players like Gunston, Cyril, Smith, Shiels, Bruest and Duryea are still quite young and will become the core group soon enough, it's going to be impossible to replace names like Hodge, Mitchell and Burgoyne but hopefully their role can be filled in one way or another.
 
I'd be more worried about a demise if box hill hadn't been in 3 straight vfl gfs and also our track record with trading, lost quite a number of players through free agency so when the stars start to retire we may start to benefit from that. Frawley was a good start but still well behind on the FA ledger.
 
The demise is coming, it's a matter of how far they will fall and how hard they land? I suspect they already know this and are planning for a very difficult end of 2016 where the old chestnuts get the flick and everyone gets teary eyed. Can't see them missing the 8 in 2016, should still finish top 4. 2017 is where it all comes a cropper, but they won't be down for long.
 
Biggest questions I have for them is how many of their 30+ year olds will retire if they don't win the flag in 2016. I can see Hodge going on, but not sure about the others.
They've been preparing for it for a while though, I see them far more prepared for Mitchell, Burgoyne, Gibson & Hodge retiring than say North is for all their 30+ year olds.
4 pretty important players to replace though, a long way to go to see if the replacements can keep them contending
 
There's a good enough forward and defensive core to stop a complete bottom out for another 5-6 years I think. It will be the development of and additions to the midfield that will determine anything beyond that. You don't replace Mitchell, Hodge and Burgoyne. Some players will have to come along and forge something special again on their own accord.
 

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I know Essendon fans are sposed to hate Hawthorn, however, I never got that or the North thing. They were always clubs with smaller fan bases and not in the same premiership race. Though Clarkson is getting Hawthorn up there with Essendon, Carlton and Collingwood and some great marketing initiatives have seen their membership base challenge the big 4, and hopefully will still be up there when they drop off on field.

Actually, Hawthorn have been up among the best in the league in terms of membership since about 1996.

To answer the question, i think we'll take a similar path to Geelong. Stay in the finals for a few years after we stop truly contending with the retirements of a few stars, then slide out of the 8. If we can find a few draft steals, or pick up some fantastic recruits like Geelong have, then we could be back up and about with a core of Birchall, Cyril, Gunston, Breust, Duryea, Frawley, Shiels, with Lewis/Rough in their twilight years, and a Dangerfield type recruit, but we won't be the force that we were in 2012-2015.

We'll have a lot of cap space opening up with these retirements, so there is definitely an opportunity to stay with the best teams, but we would probably need some great luck, or some super recruiting results to do that.
 
When they dropped off the pace in the mid-90's, it was caused by everyone retiring all at the same time. Yes they got Salmon in and had Crawford hitting his straps by then along with Holland, but, there was too little left in the tank.

Hopefully the lessons of the past are learned for their sake.
 
The develop very well, and majority of the spare parts players they got from other clubs weren't world beaters, and they made a lot of them very handy players.

They continue that, they'll be thereabouts in the 8 for a while yet.

Not enough credit is given to player development and shrewd drafting outside stars these days, clubs are starting to get more switched on in these areas.
 
You can't win it every single year. We will drop off, maybe fall to the bottom 8 for a few years.

However, unlike other 'flash in the pan' clubs, for whom the planets aligned for a few years, before dropping back into obscurity for eternity - Crows in the late 90s, Lions in the early 2000s, north in the mid-late 90s, with the jury still definitely out on the recent Cats side - you can bet that the Hawks will regroup, rebound and come again. We've won flags in every single decade since the 60s, no other club can claim that. Can't see that changing.
 
"Obviously a large percentage of replies to this thread are going to be trolls, so I'm going to do my best not get caught on the bait and I'm hoping you can avoid it too."

Then proceeds to litter OP with backhanded compliments and subtle trolls :rolleyes:
 
I am very confident that any demise will be gradual, and potentially resurrected through free agency/trade.

It is reasonable to query our older players I suppose but I do wonder why everybody thinks Hodge and in particular Mitchell have only a couple of years left. Hodge has had three very good seasons in a row now that would rank as his 4th, 5th and 6th best (in no order). Then there is Mitchell who is by any measure still an absolutely elite centreman and playing the most damaging brand of footy of his career, to me he has at least three or four years until any sharp decline as he possesses the highest degree of football intelligence I have seen at the club, and possibly one of the lowest degrees of athleticism.

Burgoyne and Lake we will absolutely miss in finals but to be honest both of them coasted for months at a time this year and their collective output towards our 16 -6 record was not as pronounced. In many ways Gibson will be the biggest loss but again he has won two B&F in three years and is relishing a slightly less punishing role as a thirty year old.

On top of this Frawley (27) is almost at the prime age for a key defender and is coming off a great finals series. Gunston (24) is also a key forward about to enter his best years and has booted the ninth most goals in the league since arriving at the club already. When a team has bookends approaching these 8 to 10 seasons of experience then very rarely does it go in to steep decline.


Rioli (27), Birchall (28), Breust (25), Smith (27), Stratton (27), Shiels (25), McEvoy (27), Duryea (24), Puopolo (28), Hill (23) are all prime aged, extremely experienced, big-match tested footballers who will be expected to shoulder a heavier load every season now. Of these players only Gunston, Smith and Rioli are capable of elevating themselves to Hodge, Mitchell and Burgoyne ability. Which is not to say that they definitely will.

Our youth is average with plenty of AFL standard prospects but none that shout out elite to me. Which is why after 2017 the real high quality A grade footballers would have to be acquired through other means. If that does not happen then the next generation will find a flag pretty tough to achieve.

So anyway, I don't see Hawthorn missing the eight until 2019 at the earliest , and no chance of a bottom four finish for another five seasons at least. I am trying not to look at this with rose-coloured glasses and accept that a decline is inevitable, especially with our recent draft strategy up until this year. But I look at the list and there is just too much experience and quality to oversee a plummet down the ladder. Coupled with the best and most innovative coaching staff in the AFL and St Kilda, Carlton level desolation looks very unlikely to me.
 
the loss of hodge, mitchell and burgoyne over the next year or 2 will hurt, you can't replace players of that caliber, they are all time great players.

as a lions fan the drop off after the 2004 season was dramatic, with an ounce of luck injury/prelim venue wise could have possibly won 4 on the trot. i always remember leigh matthews words at junction oval the sunday morning after the 2004 GF. went something like this. (don't get used to this GF business every year, this group has been extraordinary but it is not the norm, could be 20 years before we are back here again.) turning out to be very prophetic.

can't see the hawks drop off being any where near as severe, with free agency and just greater player movement in general it is easier now to re load and go again.
 

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