The last 15 years in AFL

Remove this Banner Ad

Apr 19, 2013
9,919
6,201
Melbourne
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
The Swans Blog
One of the best things supporters get from AFL is the ability to debate which team is better than others and why. We're fortunate with our sport that 4 or 5 teams usually don't dominate for an extended period of time, such as European football leagues, due to financial might. However, some teams do perform better than others and it's due to certain factors, such as management, coaching, financial position, membership base, training facilities and so forth.

I wanted to see how teams performed over the last 15 years, in particular mine, in relation to one another and I wanted to see how they performed in the H&A season as well as the finals. What I found was pretty amazing.

Finals Since 2000:
Every club except for the expansion clubs have played finals with Richmond having the least appearances with 5. Carlton who are destined for the spoon this year have 11 including 1 preliminary final appearance, whereas Melbourne who've been a mainstay for some time in the bottom half of the ladder, have 9 finals appearances including 1 grand final appearance (2000).

Sydney have played the most finals games with 28, leading Geelong, Collingwood and Hawthorn who have 27, 26 and 23 respectively. Sydney and Hawthorn are also tied for most finals wins 16 a piece with Hawthorn holding a clear lead in finals wins percentage of almost 70% whereas Sydney have 57%. Brisbane on the other hand have the best finals winning record of all teams with over 75% of finals won, however have only played 17 games with a record of 13-4 (amazing!).

Of all teams above 10 finals appearances, North Melbourne have the worst finals record with 4 wins and 9 losses. Adelaide is next on 18 appearances with 6 wins and 12 losses. Amazingly Adelaide has not won a single away finals game. Adelaide have played in 4 preliminary finals, losing them all. Collingwood and Geelong both have the best preliminary final record with 7 appearances, winning 4, however Sydney and Hawthorn have higher win percentage with 1 less appearance but 1 less loss. Amazingly, every club except the expansion clubs have played a preliminary final. Although that doesn't always translate into grand finals, since Adelaide, Carlton, North Melbourne, Richmond and Western Bulldogs have not made any finals.

Collingwood have played the most grand finals with 5 appearances for 1 win, but is not quite as bad as St Kildas record which is 0 from 3. Brisbane, Sydney, Hawthorn and Geelong share 4 appearances each, but Brisbane, Geelong and Hawthorn have 3 wins and 1 loss, while Sydney has 2 wins and 2 losses.

Home & Away Since 2000:
Port Adelaide has finished 1st 3 times, leading Hawthorn, Geelong, Essendon and Collingwood who each have 2. However finishing 1st does not guarantee a grand final win. Since 2000, 6 winners have finished 1st, while 9 winners have finished 2nd or 3rd. Amazingly, no team has won the grand final who've finished lower than 3rd on the ladder. That truly is a stunning fact.

Geelong has the most top 8 finishes with 8, followed up by Sydney and Collingwood on 6. It's truly remarkable that Geelong still managed consecutive top 4 finishes in 2013 and 2014 when they were regarded as being considerably weaker than their grand final winning years.

A stat that might truly surprise everyone is the top 3 most winning teams. They are Geelong with an average of 14.6, Sydney with 12.8 and Collingwood with 12.7. Hawthorn is a close 4th with 12.53. At the opposite end of the scale, excluding the expansion teams, Melbourne has the highest average losses per season with a whopping 13.9! Carlton comes in 2nd with 12.73 and Richmond 3rd with 12.67. Believe it or not, but Fremantle rounds out the bottom 4 with an average of 11.27.

There is one stat that I found more surprising than any other stat, is that Sydney (yes, they are my team) have the best H&A record over the last 15 seasons. That's not to say that they might have the most wins or the least losses, but it is to say that they have the highest average finishing position on the ladder at 5.4. Geelong follows closely at 5.67 and Hawthorn trails at 6.33. Collingwood rounds out the top 4 at 7. I suppose when you compare those 4 teams Sydney has missed the finals 3 times, Hawthorn 6, Geelong 4 and Collingwood 5 times.

I've added break downs over 5 year periods, average scores in finals etc. Believe it or not, Richmond is the only team to have played finals who actually has a negative score differential, basically losing by more than they win by. It isn't much, just a difference of 5 points, but in the last 15 years they've only managed to win 1 final.

 
Last edited:

Log in to remove this ad.

Can we get a H&A ladder?

Where are Richmond?
I did the ladder in 5 year blocks as well as the complete 2000 - 2014 ladder.
2000 - 2014: 16th
2000 - 2004: 14th
2005 - 2009: 17th
2010 - 2014: 12th

Looks like Harwick has had an impact at the club considering that the years hes been coaching they're 5 positions better than their previous 5 years with Terry Tan.

Some people might have had me talking up the Swans because I'm a supporter but I was genuinely surprised by the stats. Basically the best 4 performing teams over the past 15 seasons have been Geelong, Sydney Hawthorn & Collingwood in that order (talk about equalisation :rolleyes:) and each 5 year group Sydney finishes in the top 4, 4th, 4th and 3rd from 2000-04, 2005-09, 2010-14 respectively. Incredibly Sydney is the only team over the 15 year stretch to average a top 4 finish including each 5 year block. That's quite incredible because from 2005 - 2014 they don't even have the 3rd or 4th best win ration, yet manage to average top 4.

I think fans of Collingwood should be very happy about their last 15 years considering they success they had and Geelong fans surely have reason to be very happy, considering they've been arguably the best performing club of the last 15 years.

Some very fascinating stats.
 
There are some other very interesting stats, such as the team that finishes last more often than not isn't the lowest scoring, nor the highest conceding team, including GCS & GWS.
Year|Last|Lowest For|Highest Against\
2000|St Kilda|St Kilda|St Kilda\
2001|Fremantle|West Coast|St Kilda\
2002|Carlton|Carlton|Carlton\
2003|Western Bulldogs|Carlton|Western Bulldogs\
2004|Richmond|Hawthorn|Western Bulldogs\
2005|Carlton|Collingwood|Carlton\
2006|Carlton|North Melbourne|Essendon\
2007|Richmond|St Kilda|Carlton (2911!!!)\
2008|Melbourne|Melbourne|Melbourne\
2009|Melbourne|Melbourne|Richmond (St Kilda conceded 1411!)\
2010|West Coast|Richmond|Essendon\
2011|Gold Coast|Gold Coast|Gold Coast\
2012|GWS (1207!!)|GWS|GWS\
2013|GWS|Melbourne|GWS (2990! Higher than 2012)\
2014|St Kilda|Melbourne|St Kilda
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

not 9th sorry..
A very funny fact is that they've finished ninth 3 times in the last 15 years, the most. Can't really miss out on a little rib tickler there. North Melbourne, St Kilda, and Hawthorn have finished 9th 2 times... who knows, there might be a new ninth-... this year :$:drunk::D
 
Looks to me like a poor imitation of the Power Rankings
Not sure if you're kidding, but it isn't, nor is it an imitation, cheap copy, rip off etc. It's merely a amalgamation and aggregation of all the H&A ladders and finals results over the last 15 years. Take from it what you want.

Unfortunate and petty that you're comparing an aggregation of data to a weighted forecasting tool, since both have absolutely nothing in common.
 
Team Position Wins Losses For Against %
St Kilda 9.07 10.53 11.13 2,012 2,013 104.06%
When I saw that average, my first thought was "lol one more point and we'd be pretty much even on our points for and against average since 2000"

Unfortunately my next thought was of the 2010 drawn Grand Final.
 
I did the ladder in 5 year blocks as well as the complete 2000 - 2014 ladder.
2000 - 2014: 16th
2000 - 2004: 14th
2005 - 2009: 17th
2010 - 2014: 12th

Looks like Harwick has had an impact at the club considering that the years hes been coaching they're 5 positions better than their previous 5 years with Terry Tan.

Some people might have had me talking up the Swans because I'm a supporter but I was genuinely surprised by the stats. Basically the best 4 performing teams over the past 15 seasons have been Geelong, Sydney Hawthorn & Collingwood in that order (talk about equalisation :rolleyes:) and each 5 year group Sydney finishes in the top 4, 4th, 4th and 3rd from 2000-04, 2005-09, 2010-14 respectively. Incredibly Sydney is the only team over the 15 year stretch to average a top 4 finish including each 5 year block. That's quite incredible because from 2005 - 2014 they don't even have the 3rd or 4th best win ration, yet manage to average top 4.

I think fans of Collingwood should be very happy about their last 15 years considering they success they had and Geelong fans surely have reason to be very happy, considering they've been arguably the best performing club of the last 15 years.

Some very fascinating stats.
Tigers done bloody well to finish 17th between 2005-2009.

I'll let you work out why.
 
Hawthorn, Geelong and Brisbane all have 3 flags from 4 GF's

They are ions ahead of the rest...

/thread

Eons?

Its an interesting ladder and is definitively indicative of how certain teams have performed.

Brisbane have been terrible apart from the first 5 years of this century.

Geelong, Collingwood and Sydney have probably been the most consistent performers throughout (terms of ladder positions and finals). Hawthorn and Geelong have 6 of the last 8 flags the two best clubs of the last 15 years for mine. Brisbane's three flags were more a great team than a great club performance.

Interesting one is Adelaide - probably deserved a flag in there given the number of wins - as did my Saints
 
Eons?

Its an interesting ladder and is definitively indicative of how certain teams have performed.

Brisbane have been terrible apart from the first 5 years of this century.

Geelong, Collingwood and Sydney have probably been the most consistent performers throughout (terms of ladder positions and finals). Hawthorn and Geelong have 6 of the last 8 flags the two best clubs of the last 15 years for mine. Brisbane's three flags were more a great team than a great club performance.

Interesting one is Adelaide - probably deserved a flag in there given the number of wins - as did my Saints

Brisbane WAS well run, good recruitment (late 90's) and we had top facilities back then. Plus we had a strong culture of taking no prisoners. Was a great club achievement.
 
Eons?

Its an interesting ladder and is definitively indicative of how certain teams have performed.

Brisbane have been terrible apart from the first 5 years of this century.

Geelong, Collingwood and Sydney have probably been the most consistent performers throughout (terms of ladder positions and finals). Hawthorn and Geelong have 6 of the last 8 flags the two best clubs of the last 15 years for mine. Brisbane's three flags were more a great team than a great club performance.

Interesting one is Adelaide - probably deserved a flag in there given the number of wins - as did my Saints

Saints definitely should have snagged one there somewhere. Imagine if they'd finished with two? Ifs and buts I suppose.

Surely you have to rate Brisbane's threepeat though (and four granny appearances for that matter)? For any team to achieve that is a spectacular club performance. Sure, they've dropped away big time since but it's an astounding achievement nonetheless.
 
Saints definitely should have snagged one there somewhere. Imagine if they'd finished with two? Ifs and buts I suppose.

Surely you have to rate Brisbane's threepeat though (and four granny appearances for that matter)? For any team to achieve that is a spectacular club performance. Sure, they've dropped away big time since but it's an astounding achievement nonetheless.

Should Hawthorn do a 3 peat this season they'll be the best club of the last 16 years. The Brisbane team was great, but they haven't had a sustained period of success like Hawthorn has. Its mind blowing how consistent they've been since 2010. Average a finish in the top 3, average more than 16 wins a season and average about 137%, which supports the 'a good offence is a good defence' mantra.

Sherrinator was correct about what he said about the Lions; there was significant investment in the late 90's to bring the club up to a competitive AFL standard. The rewards, and to be honest, they really won out of the Fitzroy merger like nothing that's happened since, was a treble premiership run. That team was probably the best AFL team in history, or at least right up there. It never really had dominant seasons like Hawthorn in the 80s or Essendon in 2000 or Geelong 2008, but they obliterated teams in the finals, or just ran over the top of them. But a little like Essendon, but I think with deeper impact, was the loss of so many excellent players within a short period of time, just like Sydney had in 2007-08. They sunk out of the finals and haven't recovered since. Throw in a gutless board here, really poor coaching over there and plain bad recruiting and you've got a club that's anchoring the ladder. Richmond have done it, Carlton have done it, St Kilda have done it the most; many clubs have bottomed because they lacked cohesive vision and sure as hell couldn't execute it.

It's hard to argue against Hawthorn, Sydney, Geelong and Collingwood being the best teams of the last 5 seasons, since Hawks have 3 GF appearances, Swans & Pies 2 and Cats 1. When looking at the traditional big 4, Collingwood have been far and away the best team of the lot, averaging 2 better ladder positions than Essendon, 4 more than Carlton and 5 more than Richmond. A lot of that has to do with McGuire, his contacts, his nous and entrepreneurial skills, getting in Malthouse, renegotiating and improving marketing and sponsorship deals, rebuilding training facilities with state grants and really just doing a lot of smart business. While Collingwood haven't been a much of a threat under Buckley, they've still managed to make par. When you compare it to Essendon, who've had continuous and unabated turmoil with Mathew Knights, James Hird and Kevin Sheedy (truth be told he stayed on 3 years too long), Richmond who've gone through coaches like a different flavour of cigarettes and Carlton who've reaped what they've sown and have done a complete 180 turn from Ratten (I honestly believe Ratten was the best coach that club has had since Sticks Kernahan played), they've done smart business and really have redefined the meaning of a Victoria powerhouse club.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top