The Learning Curve

[RU_]

Hey all.

Relatively new to this betting, started Oaks Day last year and have just been casually betting on and off for the last year. Recently I have found it easier to build a bit of a bank, etc but generally blow it pretty quickly.

Basically want to use this thread for improvements from those who are quite capable in this area.

I have managed to build myself an $80 bank off $5 on the greyhounds tonight, and will chuck a few dollars onto the Sale races tomorrow before the Stakes on Saturday to try and give myself $100-$150 to * around with.

If I was looking at the form for say Sale tomorrow, is this the right way to go about picking who to jump on?

Race 1:
Oscars Fight due to being second up and having been a second in the same class on his return race by half a length, its placed at 1000m and the extra 100m could give it that room to steal it.

Race 2:
Aura Lee due to a third last start at the same class with 200 less meters, has the second best time for this distance behind a horse who is having a string of 4,5 placed finishes and could be ready to peak.

I'll just go with the two for the moment, and see what tips, etc I get.

Thanks!

 

[ash_1050]

Turning $5 into $80 doesn't mean you can or should start taking things too seriously. Enjoy having a punt and don't bet more than you can afford to lose is the best way to go.

 

[RU_]

Mainly just looking for better ways to pick what to jump on. I only bet what I can afford, if I don't have the money I won't bet.

 

[FallingLiefs]

I can't comment on much other than the ponies as I don't bet on anything but throughbreds and maybe 1 bet a year on AFL. First things first for throughbreds when anybody asks me about racing is learning to watch a race properly. Tempo, patterns, what's a good run, what's not, comparing runs in the same race, runs on the same day, whose got scope and who's peaked on their run is key. Not sure how in depth to go but IMO watching a race is a huge part of form (you can get good gauges of how it was run elsewhere but watching race replays would be easiest way to learn). The other parts are completely up to interpretation for person to person and how you rate factors be it in depth as sectional handicap ratings or plain as barriers. I think that's a good place to start.

Be careful of times, they can be a cash sink if you don't completely understand them. For instance in WA Northam maidens have a par time about 2seconds quicker than most Saturday races in perth.

 

[Keystone agony]

I can't comment on much other than the ponies as I don't bet on anything but throughbreds and maybe 1 bet a year on AFL. First things first for throughbreds when anybody asks me about racing is learning to watch a race properly. Tempo, patterns, what's a good run, what's not, comparing runs in the same race, runs on the same day, whose got scope and who's peaked on their run is key. Not sure how in depth to go but IMO watching a race is a huge part of form (you can get good gauges of how it was run elsewhere but watching race replays would be easiest way to learn). The other parts are completely up to interpretation for person to person and how you rate factors be it in depth as sectional handicap ratings or plain as barriers. I think that's a good place to start.

Be careful of times, they can be a cash sink if you don't completely understand them. For instance in WA Northam maidens have a par time about 2seconds quicker than most Saturday races in perth.

What are some things that might be a good run or a bad run?

Good run - running three wide and still finishing strong

Bad run sitting one back one wide and still not being able to finish well

These are just examples are these some of the things you look at.

Or a fast run race with a front marker holding on. Or a slow run race but still a back marker making ground?

How much do people take into account

Track, Jockey, Trainer, How many runs back?, distance, venue ect?

 

[RU_]

Also, very amauterish question here.

When it says Barrier one is that closest to the rail or closest to the outside edge? I'd imagine rail?

 

[Rough_Edges]

Few tips;

1. If the horse has lots of 1s next to its name, it means it's got the best form.

2. I think it's best to bet at all meets across a day. That way your money is evenly spread.

3. If later on in the day, you find yourself with a dwindling balance, I think it's a good idea to up your stake. That way you can make back your losses.,

Good luck cheers

 

[FallingLiefs]

Also, very amauterish question here.

When it says Barrier one is that closest to the rail or closest to the outside edge? I'd imagine rail?

To the inside rail.

 

[TheKanga]

Learn about the weights, for example generally a horse with a top weight of 61-62kgs isn't ideal.
Learn about the distances, for example outside barriers usually aren't desirable on 1000m sprint races.
Generally the closer to the rail the better in those races.
Look out for jockey trainer/combinations that seem to have a good strike rate.
(eg Darren Weir/Brad Rawiller)
Check to see if the jockey has ridden the horse before, some horses only respond to certain jockies i've found.
If you don't like anything or can't single out a value runner, don't bet and wait for something better.

 

[rideclutch]

Mainly just looking for better ways to pick what to jump on. I only bet what I can afford, if I don't have the money I won't bet.

There'll be an information overload in this thread, so I'll keep mine simple - 2 questions:

When assessing a horses chances in any race, ask yourself first - what is the best level of performance my horse can run to? If you're betting in maidens your form might be limited and similarly in age restricted races (2 & 3YO's) they can improve quite sharply without warning, but in all other races you should be able to find a horses peak performance in their form. From that you should be able to ascertain if they're a legit winning chance or not.

The second question would be what chance is my horse of performing to that level today? Fitness, track condition, racing pattern all your everyday form factors taken into account, will it run to that level? Any factors in common with the day it produced its' best? From there it's down to odds and what price you want.

Good luck