The line betting Royal Decree

[Thedeftouch]

the offer stands.

I saw it a while ago. I recall it was a little trite but certainly not embarrassing.

My understanding is that Brett currently uses something similar to a team ranking system, with added variables such as weather, H/A advantage, etc.

It's probable he can find decent edges from an approach like this in a sport like Aussie Rules, but I think the better approach is identifying variables that aren't typically quantified, e.g. players, game styles and match-ups, game-specific situations and team-specific and player-specific performance patterns.

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

I saw it a while ago. I recall it was a little trite but certainly not embarrassing.

My understanding is that Brett currently uses something similar to a team ranking system, with added variables such as weather, H/A advantage, etc.

It's probable he can find decent edges from an approach like this in a sport like Aussie Rules, but I think the better approach is identifying variables that aren't typically quantified, e.g. players, game styles and match-ups, game-specific situations and team-specific and player-specific performance patterns.

I don't think he could find any decent edges in any sports, did you follow his betting thread?

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

5 u Warriors +8.5 @1.92

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

5u Essendon -15.5 @ 1.92

 

[lamaros]

5u Essendon -15.5 @ 1.92

Ah *, we're hosed.

 

[brett128]

Hey mate, sorry if this has been asked already, but can you send a list of your previous play this year? If so I'd be happy to send you my positions for the year (in private).

I don't see how this is going to benefit me. I don't care what you're betting, if you're doing >=55%, then all the best to you.

 

[brett128]

I saw it a while ago. I recall it was a little trite but certainly not embarrassing.

My understanding is that Brett currently uses something similar to a team ranking system, with added variables such as weather, H/A advantage, etc.

No offence, but that's what I thought was the extent of what you are doing. Hell I could even teach Kynge to make a simple power ranking model of the AFL that would help stop him hemorrhaging money.

but I think the better approach is identifying variables that aren't typically quantified, e.g. players, game styles and match-ups, game-specific situations and team-specific and player-specific performance patterns.

I'd put money on the fact that you are just talking the talk here.

The amount of work involved in what you've referred to above is monumental. Codification of these kinds of phenomena that aren't typically tracked by a league and their respective data providers would require serious manpower, with personnel having to watch mountains of game tape in order to record the phenomena of choice. You only get access to these kinds of labour hours when working as part of an organized group (ie: a betting syndicate), and a large betting syndicate at that. I've read of Bob Voulgaris getting people to do this for NBA, but he has a BR running into the single digit millions and can afford the labour costs.

We are doing this at the moment for US college football, this is the first time we have drilled down to the player level for any sport. We are not codifying our own unique variables, but 'merely' matching commonly collected box score player statistics to injury statistics and then in turn to each player's team. This is by far the biggest databasing task we've undertaken. And once all that heavy data lifting is done and the DB is complete, you then need to model it in some way.

 

[Jugada]

I'd put money on the fact that you are just talking the talk here.

 

[Nothing]

Hell I could even teach Kynge to make a simple power ranking model of the AFL that would help stop him hemorrhaging money.

Whooosh. Are you 4 foot tall because this has gone right over your head?

 

[brett128]

Whooosh. Are you 4 foot tall because this has gone right over your head?

No actually i'm 6'3" and deadlift 180kg.

 

[ThePeanutGallery]

No actually i'm 6'3" and deadlift 180kg.

You would have to lift that much if you wanted to carry around your handkerchief that wipes the s**t you dribble off your chin.

 

[Thedeftouch]

No offence, but that's what I thought was the extent of what you are doing. Hell I could even teach Kynge to make a simple power ranking model of the AFL that would help stop him hemorrhaging money.



I'd put money on the fact that you are just talking the talk here.

The amount of work involved in what you've referred to above is monumental. Codification of these kinds of phenomena that aren't typically tracked by a league and their respective data providers would require serious manpower, with personnel having to watch mountains of game tape in order to record the phenomena of choice. You only get access to these kinds of labour hours when working as part of an organized group (ie: a betting syndicate), and a large betting syndicate at that. I've read of Bob Voulgaris getting people to do this for NBA, but he has a BR running into the single digit millions and can afford the labour costs.

We are doing this at the moment for US college football, this is the first time we have drilled down to the player level for any sport. We are not codifying our own unique variables, but 'merely' matching commonly collected box score player statistics to injury statistics and then in turn to each player's team. This is by far the biggest databasing task we've undertaken. And once all that heavy data lifting is done and the DB is complete, you then need to model it in some way.

Yeah Brett I work very hard. Your theories about the method and extent of work required is wrong. I was just trying to offer some constructive advice. I'm not going to get into details of my results and my operation, other than to say you are trying to teach your grandmother how to suck eggs.

 

[Thedeftouch]

I don't see how this is going to benefit me. I don't care what you're betting, if you're doing >=55%, then all the best to you.

The idea is that you get to look over a set of games that someone has profitably bet, from which you should be able to get some fresh insights or ideas.

 

[brett128]

Yeah Brett I work very hard. Your theories about the method and extent of work required is wrong. I was just trying to offer some constructive advice. I'm not going to get into details of my results and my operation, other than to say you are trying to teach your grandmother how to suck eggs.

How am I wrong? Bottom line, if you want truly unique variables, you gotta codify it yourself.

Now, if you are talking about the most efficient processing of publicly available information, (IE: the derivation of innovative synthetic variables from scrapable base variables) then that is a whole different kettle of fish, and something that I do not define as truly unique. You're just using existing data in smartest way possible.

Don't assume i'm not far removed from my WAFL model, that was years ago, and my my first tentative steps into sports modelling. I now found myself with this as my occupation which I work 7 days a week in.

 

[brett128]

The idea is that you get to look over a set of games that someone has profitably bet, from which you should be able to get some fresh insights or ideas.

Sorry man, I don't have the time to decipher your methodologies through your results. If you work as hard as us, then yeah, there's no reason why you aren't doing >= 55% too. I wish you the best of luck.

I honestly don't think there's an area/method of predictive sports modelling I've not read about or used anyway.

 

[DangerSloane]

Predominantly Tennis, AFL, NRL, NFL

Can you PM me your models too plz

 

[KardiniaPark]

No actually i'm 6'3" and deadlift 180kg.

So you are dead lifting all the losing tickets from the first few months of your thread ?

 

[Duritz]

Dead lifting? Isn't that illegal and highly immoral? Think of the families involved.

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

He's talking about getting out of his computer chair, gotta be strong to lift that 180kg frame.

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

Hell I could even teach Kynge to make a simple power ranking model of the AFL that would help stop him hemorrhaging money.

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

5 u Warriors +8.5 @1.92 -5
5u Essendon -15.5 @ 1.92 -5

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

5 u Sydney -16.5 @1.92 -5
5 u Melbourne +36.5 @1.92 +4.6
5 u Brisbane +32.5 @ 1.92 +4.6
u Warriors +8.5 @1.92 -5
5u Essendon -15.5 @ 1.92 -5

-31.25
need to pull out the big guns if I am going to lose the lot by the end of the season.

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

5 u Carlton +19.5 @1.92
5 u Gold Coast + 27.5 @1.92
5 u Essendon +10.5 @1.92
5 u GWS +62.5 @1.92
5 u Footscray +5.5 @1.92

 

[Thedeftouch]

I honestly don't think there's an area/method of predictive sports modelling I've not read about or used anyway.

You know it all then

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

5 u Souths +2 @ $1.90
5 u Raiders -1.5 @ 1.90