Analysis The Matt Taberner effect

[samFFC]

Been a bit grumpy around these parts about people suggesting Tabs should be out of the side, for the sake of his performances, or for team balance, or whatever it might be. Thought I'd just share this 'Analysis' (?) to clarify my point, and emphasise his importance within the side, which goes far further than individual stats.

Round 1: Taberner didn't play
Round 2: Taberner subbed out in Q4.
Freo scores 93 points in first three quarters with him on the field. Only 11 in the final quarter of which he only plays part.
Round 3: Taberner plays full game. Freo scores 111 points.
Round 4: Taberner subbed out midway through 3rd quarter, Freo on 57 up to that point. Score 17 points after he subbed out.
Round 5: Plays full game. Freo scores 118 points.
Round 6: Taberner subbed out midway through final quarter. Freo on 78 up to that point. Score 2 points after.

So across the 5 rounds Taberner has played, Freo has scored 457 points across ~17.5 quarters, which equates to 26.1 points per quarter.

And for the time he isn't on the field, Freo has scored 30 points across 2.5 quarters, which is 12 points per quarter.

I appreciate that there are many factors why Freo would be scoring less late in games, which is when the sub is generally made. However it highlights the key point that Freo is averaging ~100 per game for the quarters Tabs is on the field. For the first time in many years, Freo has a forward line that is highly potent, kicking matchwinning scores against teams from top, middle and bottom of the ladder, whilst not losing out on our renowned defensive capacity.

And having Taberner in the team is a key component of this situation that we have. Whether he kicks 1 goal or 4, his presence, his part within the overall structure, and his "non-stat" contribution to the team cannot be understated, and is crucial to the team's success in 2015. (not to mention more games = more experience = better future for Freo's forward line post-Pavlich).

 

[Dignan]

I agree that Taberner has a role to play in the side and I don't think he should be dropped.

With that said, these statistics aren't the ones to prove his worth.

 

[Kram]

I can only recall about 2 people that have said that they wanted him dropped..

 

[Square Peg]

See I think the title of your thread says it all - effect
He is never going to be a key forward that you can build your list around, You are never going to see a coach say "just kick it to Tabs"
But he is effective at what he is doing now, which is getting his defender far enough away from both Pav and goal that Pav is getting more one on ones inside 50.

 

[Big Flappy]

I can only recall about 2 people that have said that they wanted him dropped..

They are saying it a lot though

 

[schnoods]

Love it.

It could be attributed to 1 less tall to potentially target in the forward line making it one dimensional.

Even making possible 50-50 marking contests where the ball either gets marked or goes to ground instead of being a marking opportunity to direct opponent as opposed to MDB or the another player rotated forward being a less than 50-50 chance where there is a good chance they can mop up and rebound.

Could just be the forward press and the frenzy he brings to give more contest on the ground ball as he would apply more than a "resting" mid or Sandi.

However, it seems a few errors in the midfield and the backline late in games seem to be where we're leaking, but Im guessing its through the structure changes and having less direct usage etc.

 

[PurpleWizard]

I agree that he's having a postive effect for Pav and Zarke. He really has opened up our forward line and we are taking more inside 50 marks. But it's not all roses. Having Tabs as a lead up target has really cramped Ballaz and Sunny's game. Ballaz seems lost not being to offer himself as a lead up target, and Sunny isnt working as a part time midfielder.

 

[Kram]

They are saying it a lot though

I said that in a really good side it's somewhere where we would ideally have someone better but he's doing his job alright and steadily improving, definitely in the best Freo 22.

 

[Banker]

Dont really like the statistics used to justify his inculsion! But I understand his importance for our structures, which play a big role in our game plan.

 

[purplerunsdeep]

I like him playing the lead up role, has the engine to spread a defence and keep his opponent honest. Freo's all about playing your role - he is playing his. Am interested to read thoughts on if he is impacting ballas / son son's role. How many games have they all played together? output? that would be interesting

 

[clogged]

I don't think him being subbed results in the lack of scoring. He was subbed against Sydney because Sydney were exploiting him through Reid. Lost a contest pretty badly in the 3rd, Sydney got a goal out of it.

 

[samFFC]

I can only recall about 2 people that have said that they wanted him dropped..

Would say it's more than that, from what I've seen. Otherwise glad that would be the case. Important to re-state his worth.

 

[Moo]

Tabs has an excellent work rate, stands 6 feet 5 inches and is averaging 1.4 goals a game.....plus he is our future - what's not to like?

Makes double teaming Pav just not an option, Walters/Balla can crumb off him, he runs and tackles supporting the likes of Mayne in the manic pressure dept - plus watch him lead and lead and lead and lead.

Safe as far as I am concerned...only going to get better as time goes on and all things being equal he is a great candidate for the 3/4 time sub.

 

[Quokka]

Maybe he was tiring badly or maybe it just wasn't his night but I was still a little disappointed he was subbed out again on Saturday. He is clearly working really hard at the moment, a few junk time goals against a tired defense would be a nice bonus for him and the team.

 

[samFFC]

I like him playing the lead up role, has the engine to spread a defence and keep his opponent honest. Freo's all about playing your role - he is playing his. Am interested to read thoughts on if he is impacting ballas / son son's role. How many games have they all played together? output? that would be interesting

Ballantyne didn't play R3/4, and Tabs didn't play R1, so only played 3 games together. In those games Ballaz kicked 1.1, 0.1 and 2.0. Kicked 2.0 in the R1 game Tabs didn't play. So probably not much difference on balance.

Walters has played all 6 games. 1.2, 3.2, 0.1, 0.0 and 1.1 in the games Tabs has played; 1.2 in R1 when Tabs didn't. So again pretty similar.
Interestingly though: in Round 1 he got 9 disposals (without Tabs), and in the other games he has had 15, 16, 16, 3 (vs Melbourne, with concussion and subbed of course) and then 16. So definitely a trend there.

 

[UFO Tatsu]

Don't we have a thread already for these sort of stuff

 

[samFFC]

Don't we have a thread already for these sort of stuff

The "useless stats" thread?

 

[UFO Tatsu]

The "useless stats" thread?

 

[youmewe]

Ssshhhh.

We're working really hard to develop a cult following over there. Being ignored and anonymous is a must.

 

[theGav56]

Quite interested to see how he goes over the full season, and how he is managed. Really want him feeling physically good come finals, and wondering if he has built a base for that or if he will need some games off.

 

[Pusswah]

And having Taberner in the team is a key component of this situation that we have. Whether he kicks 1 goal or 4, his presence, his part within the overall structure, and his "non-stat" contribution to the team cannot be understated, and is crucial to the team's success in 2015. (not to mention more games = more experience = better future for Freo's forward line post-Pavlich).

Oh s**t he's our Natanui.

I look forward to him securing his first All Australian spot on 0.9 goals per game.

 

[Fireballs]

Yep he's important to the structure however any WAFL forward could play his role. He isn't the future unfortunately.

 

[Kram]

Tabs has an excellent work rate

Spot on Jacko.

 

[Moo]

Yep he's important to the structure however any WAFL forward could play his role. He isn't the future unfortunately.

 

[beetz]

For his first 100 games it would be unfair to expect more from Tabs than merely playing the 2nd/3rd tall which will take th 2nd/3rd best defender and using his elite endurance to run them ragged up and down the ground while picking up 10-12 touches and maybe a goal. Meanwhile Pav, Clarke, Sandilands, Mayne and Apeness in the future will be afforded the luxury of an open forward line with one less defender coming up for the spoil in pack situations and the likes of Walters, Ballantyne, Crozier plus midfield mopping up and spillages. Currently Tabs is playing the foil role perfectly and you just have to cast your mind back to the Brisbane game to see his true potential.

Key forward is probably the hardest position on the ground to dominate in and even the very best don't start until they're well in to their career - look how long it took Shulz.

We all just have to be mindful that Taberner is keeping his spot in the best team in the AFL currently.