"And down the stretch they come,"
Teams are jockeying for Playoff positions right now, who knows what the standings will look like by the end of this new week...
Style and Inividuality
Analytics has impacted the way teams run their offenses. In recent years certain aspects have been emphasised and deemphasised, becoming implied tenets of a successful offense:
In a recent SI article on the Atlanta Hawks their offense was described thusly:
And later on in the article:
We hear about the Spurs’ plug-and-play system, Houston's penchant for 3’s, free throws and layups, the Triangle, "Pace and Space".
A strict adherence to such systems implies a rigidity amongst NBA offenses, a movement from Expressionism to Realism, which restricts the chance for individual imagination to flourish within the system.
This may be true in comparison to the iso-ball days of yore, but if you look close enough there are still players out there with their own idiosyncrasies who, while still being “a gear” in the machine, are still able to show their individuality.
Here is a lineup of 5 non-allstars who are NBA Expressionists, each evoking a unique mood:
G: Ricky Rubio
Rubio was one the first kids of the youtube era, a teenager dishing out fancy passes and hitting half-court game winners.
The hype has been too much for him to live up to, particularly in a league where the two most important shots are 3’s and layups, areas where Rubio struggles.
But as a passer Rubio still exhibits a nonchalance and knowledge that seems unparalleled. It’s like he's aware he’s in the matrix; every week he produces a pass that makes you think he’s working with a different set of geometric rules, finding gaps that no-one else recognises.
Nagging injuries and playing for Minnesota means his work has been largley overlooked this season, but Rubio's flair is an important part of making the T-Wolves and the NBA at large, watchable.
G: Tony Allen
The most successful defences this season have been those that see Players constantly switching. As Golden State and Milwaukee have shown, it works best with players that have approximately the same physical size and length.
Such sameness emphasises the homogeneity of players at the defensive end - they are readily interchangeable parts.
Tony Allen is a known individual defensive specialist, who you’ll see in the upcoming playoffs attempt to pester anyone from Chris Paul to Kevin Durant...But that is not the reason he is on this team.
No, he is here because of his offense. Or rather his lack of shooting, which is perhaps the most important skill in Basketball today.
Instead, Allen marches to his own drum on offense, attacking the basket via aggressive cuts and ill-advised fast break layup attempts (which he misses far too often).
It’s an offensive approach anachronistic to the way the NBA is trending.
Allen is slightly crazy and the NBA is better for it.
F: Joe Ingles
No, this is not another joke at the expense of the Aussie.
This is instead an acknowledgement that someone nicknamed “Slo-Mo Joe” is a welcome anomaly in today's NBA. The languid lefty has found a role on the Jazz through his offensive smarts and some clever passing.
From last week’s game against the Wizards:
(BTW, it was not as egregious as his previous brainfreeze , but Otto Porter was caught unawares again here)
With receding, uncouth hair and lack of muscle definition, Ingles does not portray the image of a typical NBA Player. But it is this “Everyday Joe” image that makes the NBA feel a little closer to home for us non-super-athletic NBA fans.
F: Giannis Antentokounmpo
The attraction in Giannis’ game lies not only in what he can do but also in what he can possibly do in the future.
He is a representation of the unknown, the unbound.
Positionless, unconventional and with adept body control over a wiry frame that allows him to manage things that others can’t, he provokes odd arguments on BigFooty, not about how good he is, but how good he is perceived to be.
Will he be a great player or merely a good one? If he works best as a freelancing offensive player, will stricter adherence to a system curtail his potential?
The question marks constantly hanging over his head – the unknowing – this is part of what makes Giannis one of a kind in the NBA.
F/C: Donatas Motiejunas
They say post play is dying, replaced by the increased need for a "Stretch 4".
But there is still room for crafty operators in the post; players who can express themselves offensively much more than a big man who merely shoots jumpshots as a floor spacer.
A number of post players could have been selected in this final spot (Z-Bo, Al Jefferson, Greg Monroe) but I’ve elected to go with Motiejunas, whose series of fakes, pivots and half-hooks are purposeful and precise.
Combine this with some nifty passing and a slow outside jumpshot reminiscent of Sam Perkins (not to mention an unchanging visage and hunched gait also reminiscent of Big Smooth) and what you have is a big man who is Killing Them Softly with finesse.
Unlike the 5 guys named, most non-superstars can no longer afford to be the most expressive of players, instead simply filling the game-to-game role their team requires: hitting jumpshots, rotating on D, passing to the open man, etc.
And that's completely understandable – players know they have to fit a role to survive and earn playing time in the NBA.
So does the reduction in individualism mean the NBA is trending towards less attractive play overall?
Quite the opposite. Let's take another quote from that Atlanta Hawks article:
The offensive expressiveness no longer necessarily comes from the individual but instead from the team as a whole. It’s read and react offense, and its how teams ”react” that provides their own unique flair.
Teams like Atlanta are at the forefront of today’s (and tomorrow’s) NBA trends…
Thanks For The Memories
Steve Nash was a “read and react” system all on his own. Who knows how long it’ll be before we see an orchestrator his type again.
(Chris Paul comes the closest, but for all his pick and roll mastery he is still not as synonymous with a team’s offense as Nash was with the SSOL Suns).
Nash’s play in the 2005 Western Conference Semis against the Mavericks was one of the all-time greatest individual performances in a Playoff Series, one which he punctuated with this memorable game:
Nash retires as the 3rd leading assist getter in NBA history. Here’s how the assist progression of the all-time leaders and some of the current stars compare:
Chris Paul is this generation's Assist King, moving along at the same rate as Jason Kidd. LeBron is as good as any ball distributor today, but has fallen behind Nash in terms of assist progression. John Wall (not displayed) has pretty much the exact same trajectory as Rondo after 5 seasons.
In any case, today’s Guards have a long way to go to catch John Stockton.
Random Quiz Question Of The Week
4 Players are currently averaging at least 20 shots per game. Unsurprisingly the top 3 are:
1. Russell Westbrook (21.4 FGA per game)
2. Kobe Bryant (20.4)
3. Carmelo Anthony (20.2)
Who is no. 4?
The Lost Seasons
So we got word last week that Kevin Durant will be out “indefinitely”, only a few days after Serge Ibaka was declared as being out for up to a month.
This potentially marks yet another Lost Season for the Thunder, an additional entry to the series of injury misfortunes that have scuttled their playoff chances year after year.
After being runners up in the 2011-12 season it seemed a certainty that these young Thunder players would make numerous trips to the NBA Finals, but here’s what has happened ever since that 2012 visit:
2012-13
The OKC starters are healthy for the entire regular season, notching up 60 wins and the best record in West. A Heat/Thunder matchup looks likely until serial pest Patrick Beverley makes a post-timeout swipe at the ball, injuring Westbrook's knee.
Without their Point Guard, the Thunder succumbs to the Grizzlies in the 2nd round.
2013-14
Despite missing Westbrook for nearly half the season with persistent knee trouble, OKC still finish with 59 wins (2nd best in west) behind MVP Durant’s historic shooting season.
The Spurs finish with the best record although the Thunder are 4-0 against them in the regular season, making the Oklahoma outfit a big threat, if not favourites in playoff matchup.
But alas an Ibaka calf injury sees him miss the first 2 games of the Conference Finals. San Antonio jumps out to a 2-0 Series lead and manages to hang on after Ibaka returns.
Yes, injury strikes every team, but perhaps no other team had such a bright outlook as the 2012 Thunder.
And so the Thunder now find themselves in the role of scrapping underdogs, a role they epitomised in an energy and effort filled win over the Hawks.
The 4th quarter of that game saw the Thunder’s scrambling D lead to offensive transition opportunities spearheaded by Westbrook (it’s much better when Russ has teammates who get out and run with him – instead of being a one-man band, Westbrook becomes much more of a John Wall-style transition danger when teammates flank the wings).
Meanwhile a hot Morrow provided the outside shooting, Adams crashed the boards and the crowd roared as only an OKC crowd can. The 4th quarter was as cohesive a performance as the Thunder had shown all season.
The Hawks, clearly flustered, could do nothing to prevent a stirring OKC victory.
But good intentions don’t always equal wins.
Like OKC, Indiana exhibited the same effort against the Cavs on the weekend, hanging around valiantly in the 4th but ultimately falling to a Cleveland team that received clutch plays from LeBron down the stretch.
The Pacers have had a poor week that now sees them on the outside of the Playoff Race (maybe they’ll be able to make some noise in the Lottery), their 2014-15 campaign seemingly a Lost Season from the moment Paul George was injured.
Right now Bulls fans are thinking “Lost Seasons? Pfft, don’t talk to me about Lost Seasons!”
Derrick Rose’s absence and the lost opportunities that have accompanied them are a begrudgingly accepted reality.
It was during that same 2012 postseason when the Thunder made the Finals, that Rose first injured his knee…he hasn’t played a Playoff game since.
Paul George is expected to return sometime this week and who knows exactly when Rose will come back, but the same questions apply to both players: What kind of production should we expect from these guys? Will they be able to salvage their team's Lost Season?
You hope that both George and Rose can inject some life into the Eastern Conference Playoff race....Lord knows LeBron’s superteam could do with more challengers.
Meanwhile in the West the Durant and Ibaka-less Thunder will try and ride the momentum from that Atlanta win. But unlike previous seasons, they're looking to simply make the Playoffs much less challenge for the title.
For OKC, this may be the biggest Lost Season of them all.
The Knicks Highlight Of The Week
Buy 1 Graph, Get 1 Free...
The graph below plots Offensive and Defensive Efficiency (points scored and allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for League Average and Strength Of Schedule). Basically the further in the top right corner you are, the better you are.
Once again, credit for the original idea goes to Bigfooty User Final Siren, who created the concept in the thread: The Race for the Flag in Squiggly Lines).
The squiggles represent the team's progress since the All Star break.
Some quick notes on some of the big movers last week:
White-On-White Crime Of The Week
What To Watch For This Week
Mon: Dallas @ Phoenix. The Steve Nash Cup is one of the few Monday games on at a reasonable time for Aussie fans.
Tue: I stared at this day's schedule for 1 minute and still couldn't see a game worth recommending.
Wed: Golden State @ Portland. Another night, another great Western Conference matchup (pending LaMarcus Aldridge injury status).
Thu: Cleveland @ Memphis. A good test for two teams looking to secure 2nd seed in their respective Conferences.
Fri: Indiana @ Milwaukee is the only game on tap. Must be because of March Madness I guess...either that or the Cricket World Cup semi.
Sat: Dallas @ San Antonio. What ever happened to Kidd Vicious?
Sun: New York @ Chicago. Remember those classic Bulls-Knicks battles of the mid-90's? I'm sure this one will be just as good.
Teams are jockeying for Playoff positions right now, who knows what the standings will look like by the end of this new week...
Style and Inividuality
Analytics has impacted the way teams run their offenses. In recent years certain aspects have been emphasised and deemphasised, becoming implied tenets of a successful offense:
- DO: Move the ball quickly to stretch the defense
- DON'T: Take long 2's
- DO: Spread the weakside with shooters
- LESS: iso’s, whether on the perimeter or in the post
- MORE: Emphasis on corner 3’s
In a recent SI article on the Atlanta Hawks their offense was described thusly:
And later on in the article:
We hear about the Spurs’ plug-and-play system, Houston's penchant for 3’s, free throws and layups, the Triangle, "Pace and Space".
A strict adherence to such systems implies a rigidity amongst NBA offenses, a movement from Expressionism to Realism, which restricts the chance for individual imagination to flourish within the system.
This may be true in comparison to the iso-ball days of yore, but if you look close enough there are still players out there with their own idiosyncrasies who, while still being “a gear” in the machine, are still able to show their individuality.
Here is a lineup of 5 non-allstars who are NBA Expressionists, each evoking a unique mood:
G: Ricky Rubio
Rubio was one the first kids of the youtube era, a teenager dishing out fancy passes and hitting half-court game winners.
The hype has been too much for him to live up to, particularly in a league where the two most important shots are 3’s and layups, areas where Rubio struggles.
But as a passer Rubio still exhibits a nonchalance and knowledge that seems unparalleled. It’s like he's aware he’s in the matrix; every week he produces a pass that makes you think he’s working with a different set of geometric rules, finding gaps that no-one else recognises.
Nagging injuries and playing for Minnesota means his work has been largley overlooked this season, but Rubio's flair is an important part of making the T-Wolves and the NBA at large, watchable.
G: Tony Allen
The most successful defences this season have been those that see Players constantly switching. As Golden State and Milwaukee have shown, it works best with players that have approximately the same physical size and length.
Such sameness emphasises the homogeneity of players at the defensive end - they are readily interchangeable parts.
Tony Allen is a known individual defensive specialist, who you’ll see in the upcoming playoffs attempt to pester anyone from Chris Paul to Kevin Durant...But that is not the reason he is on this team.
No, he is here because of his offense. Or rather his lack of shooting, which is perhaps the most important skill in Basketball today.
Instead, Allen marches to his own drum on offense, attacking the basket via aggressive cuts and ill-advised fast break layup attempts (which he misses far too often).
It’s an offensive approach anachronistic to the way the NBA is trending.
Allen is slightly crazy and the NBA is better for it.
F: Joe Ingles
No, this is not another joke at the expense of the Aussie.
This is instead an acknowledgement that someone nicknamed “Slo-Mo Joe” is a welcome anomaly in today's NBA. The languid lefty has found a role on the Jazz through his offensive smarts and some clever passing.
From last week’s game against the Wizards:
(BTW, it was not as egregious as his previous brainfreeze , but Otto Porter was caught unawares again here)
With receding, uncouth hair and lack of muscle definition, Ingles does not portray the image of a typical NBA Player. But it is this “Everyday Joe” image that makes the NBA feel a little closer to home for us non-super-athletic NBA fans.
F: Giannis Antentokounmpo
The attraction in Giannis’ game lies not only in what he can do but also in what he can possibly do in the future.
He is a representation of the unknown, the unbound.
Positionless, unconventional and with adept body control over a wiry frame that allows him to manage things that others can’t, he provokes odd arguments on BigFooty, not about how good he is, but how good he is perceived to be.
Will he be a great player or merely a good one? If he works best as a freelancing offensive player, will stricter adherence to a system curtail his potential?
The question marks constantly hanging over his head – the unknowing – this is part of what makes Giannis one of a kind in the NBA.
F/C: Donatas Motiejunas
They say post play is dying, replaced by the increased need for a "Stretch 4".
But there is still room for crafty operators in the post; players who can express themselves offensively much more than a big man who merely shoots jumpshots as a floor spacer.
A number of post players could have been selected in this final spot (Z-Bo, Al Jefferson, Greg Monroe) but I’ve elected to go with Motiejunas, whose series of fakes, pivots and half-hooks are purposeful and precise.
Combine this with some nifty passing and a slow outside jumpshot reminiscent of Sam Perkins (not to mention an unchanging visage and hunched gait also reminiscent of Big Smooth) and what you have is a big man who is Killing Them Softly with finesse.
Unlike the 5 guys named, most non-superstars can no longer afford to be the most expressive of players, instead simply filling the game-to-game role their team requires: hitting jumpshots, rotating on D, passing to the open man, etc.
And that's completely understandable – players know they have to fit a role to survive and earn playing time in the NBA.
So does the reduction in individualism mean the NBA is trending towards less attractive play overall?
Quite the opposite. Let's take another quote from that Atlanta Hawks article:
The offensive expressiveness no longer necessarily comes from the individual but instead from the team as a whole. It’s read and react offense, and its how teams ”react” that provides their own unique flair.
Teams like Atlanta are at the forefront of today’s (and tomorrow’s) NBA trends…
Thanks For The Memories
Steve Nash was a “read and react” system all on his own. Who knows how long it’ll be before we see an orchestrator his type again.
(Chris Paul comes the closest, but for all his pick and roll mastery he is still not as synonymous with a team’s offense as Nash was with the SSOL Suns).
Nash’s play in the 2005 Western Conference Semis against the Mavericks was one of the all-time greatest individual performances in a Playoff Series, one which he punctuated with this memorable game:
Nash retires as the 3rd leading assist getter in NBA history. Here’s how the assist progression of the all-time leaders and some of the current stars compare:
Chris Paul is this generation's Assist King, moving along at the same rate as Jason Kidd. LeBron is as good as any ball distributor today, but has fallen behind Nash in terms of assist progression. John Wall (not displayed) has pretty much the exact same trajectory as Rondo after 5 seasons.
In any case, today’s Guards have a long way to go to catch John Stockton.
Random Quiz Question Of The Week
4 Players are currently averaging at least 20 shots per game. Unsurprisingly the top 3 are:
1. Russell Westbrook (21.4 FGA per game)
2. Kobe Bryant (20.4)
3. Carmelo Anthony (20.2)
Who is no. 4?
4. LaMarcus Aldridge (20.0)
The Lost Seasons
So we got word last week that Kevin Durant will be out “indefinitely”, only a few days after Serge Ibaka was declared as being out for up to a month.
This potentially marks yet another Lost Season for the Thunder, an additional entry to the series of injury misfortunes that have scuttled their playoff chances year after year.
After being runners up in the 2011-12 season it seemed a certainty that these young Thunder players would make numerous trips to the NBA Finals, but here’s what has happened ever since that 2012 visit:
2012-13
The OKC starters are healthy for the entire regular season, notching up 60 wins and the best record in West. A Heat/Thunder matchup looks likely until serial pest Patrick Beverley makes a post-timeout swipe at the ball, injuring Westbrook's knee.
Without their Point Guard, the Thunder succumbs to the Grizzlies in the 2nd round.
2013-14
Despite missing Westbrook for nearly half the season with persistent knee trouble, OKC still finish with 59 wins (2nd best in west) behind MVP Durant’s historic shooting season.
The Spurs finish with the best record although the Thunder are 4-0 against them in the regular season, making the Oklahoma outfit a big threat, if not favourites in playoff matchup.
But alas an Ibaka calf injury sees him miss the first 2 games of the Conference Finals. San Antonio jumps out to a 2-0 Series lead and manages to hang on after Ibaka returns.
Yes, injury strikes every team, but perhaps no other team had such a bright outlook as the 2012 Thunder.
And so the Thunder now find themselves in the role of scrapping underdogs, a role they epitomised in an energy and effort filled win over the Hawks.
The 4th quarter of that game saw the Thunder’s scrambling D lead to offensive transition opportunities spearheaded by Westbrook (it’s much better when Russ has teammates who get out and run with him – instead of being a one-man band, Westbrook becomes much more of a John Wall-style transition danger when teammates flank the wings).
Meanwhile a hot Morrow provided the outside shooting, Adams crashed the boards and the crowd roared as only an OKC crowd can. The 4th quarter was as cohesive a performance as the Thunder had shown all season.
The Hawks, clearly flustered, could do nothing to prevent a stirring OKC victory.
But good intentions don’t always equal wins.
Like OKC, Indiana exhibited the same effort against the Cavs on the weekend, hanging around valiantly in the 4th but ultimately falling to a Cleveland team that received clutch plays from LeBron down the stretch.
The Pacers have had a poor week that now sees them on the outside of the Playoff Race (maybe they’ll be able to make some noise in the Lottery), their 2014-15 campaign seemingly a Lost Season from the moment Paul George was injured.
Right now Bulls fans are thinking “Lost Seasons? Pfft, don’t talk to me about Lost Seasons!”
Derrick Rose’s absence and the lost opportunities that have accompanied them are a begrudgingly accepted reality.
It was during that same 2012 postseason when the Thunder made the Finals, that Rose first injured his knee…he hasn’t played a Playoff game since.
Paul George is expected to return sometime this week and who knows exactly when Rose will come back, but the same questions apply to both players: What kind of production should we expect from these guys? Will they be able to salvage their team's Lost Season?
You hope that both George and Rose can inject some life into the Eastern Conference Playoff race....Lord knows LeBron’s superteam could do with more challengers.
Meanwhile in the West the Durant and Ibaka-less Thunder will try and ride the momentum from that Atlanta win. But unlike previous seasons, they're looking to simply make the Playoffs much less challenge for the title.
For OKC, this may be the biggest Lost Season of them all.
The Knicks Highlight Of The Week
Buy 1 Graph, Get 1 Free...
The graph below plots Offensive and Defensive Efficiency (points scored and allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for League Average and Strength Of Schedule). Basically the further in the top right corner you are, the better you are.
Once again, credit for the original idea goes to Bigfooty User Final Siren, who created the concept in the thread: The Race for the Flag in Squiggly Lines).
The squiggles represent the team's progress since the All Star break.
Some quick notes on some of the big movers last week:
- Led by some vintage Wade performances, the Heat had a good week with 3 consecutive wins at home and now find themselves knocking on the door of the 6th seed, with Milwaukee falling just short in road games at New Orleans and Brooklyn.
- This week however it’s a role reversal with the Bucks starting a 4-game homestand while the Heat hit the road for 4 games.
- The Pelicans continue their post-All Star up and down trajectory, slipping a couple games back from the 8th spot in the West. It doesn’t help that Davis can’t stop injuring himself.
- I’ve already mentioned the Pacers – their defensive woes last week means their stay on the right side of the break-even line was brief.
- The Knicks had an interesting week, beating the Spurs but then remembering they needed to tank and subsequently losing to fellow top-pick aspirants the 76ers and Wolves. Last week’s jump in defensive efficiency was assisted by playing against these 2 Offensively challenged teams.
- Meanwhile the Knicks' own offensive efficiency continues to reach new lows.
- ESPN’s Royce Young wrote how OKC’s recent games have seen them defeat opponents by overwhelming them with Offense rather than stopping them defensively, a trend reflected in the Thunder’s trajectory on the Graph.
- The notion of “Portland, surprise defensive juggernaut” took a big step backward last week. This team needs to learn how to win on the road.
- More comforting for Portland fans: Houston and Memphis may be above them in the standings, but the Blazers (and Spurs) are closer to Championship territory by virtue of their superior point differential.
- No team comes close to Warriors in terms of point differential however. Golden State have barely moved position on the Graph post-All Star break, as their winning ways continue. A road stretch later this week will test them.
- I like Houston's silver warm-up uniform: it makes the players look like astronauts from a 1970's movie...a look that wouldn't suit any other team besides that situated at the home of NASA. But will the Rockets take off (see what I did there) with the impending return of Dwight? As much as Harden is an MVP frontrunner, the Rockets have been in a holding pattern of late and are much better defensively with Howard on the floor. They need to find some rhythm with a full lineup before they hit the Playoffs.
White-On-White Crime Of The Week
What To Watch For This Week
Mon: Dallas @ Phoenix. The Steve Nash Cup is one of the few Monday games on at a reasonable time for Aussie fans.
Tue: I stared at this day's schedule for 1 minute and still couldn't see a game worth recommending.
Wed: Golden State @ Portland. Another night, another great Western Conference matchup (pending LaMarcus Aldridge injury status).
Thu: Cleveland @ Memphis. A good test for two teams looking to secure 2nd seed in their respective Conferences.
Fri: Indiana @ Milwaukee is the only game on tap. Must be because of March Madness I guess...either that or the Cricket World Cup semi.
Sat: Dallas @ San Antonio. What ever happened to Kidd Vicious?
Sun: New York @ Chicago. Remember those classic Bulls-Knicks battles of the mid-90's? I'm sure this one will be just as good.
