- Nov 13, 2008
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For years, I have been hearing the argument that Collingwood wasn't broken when Buckley began his coaching career. Supposedly, we had the youngest list and premierships should have been won. He wanted to impose himself - or so the story says - to change the culture when the old culture had won premierships. There was supposedly no need for change. People say this stuff but I wondered what was the reality. The attempt here is to see which players were delisted and to determine whether they had more in the tank... and whether that would have delivered more premierships. I do this because I just wasting my time going back over old arguments.
So first, we look at the delistings for 2012-2014. The players in bold are the ones that could have given more in subsequent years. Most of the players that we delisted haven't got a comment because I dont think they warrant it.
2012
Simon Buckley
Jonathon Ceglar - He performed well but other hawks were preferred in finals. His output wouldn't have made much of a difference to Pies post 2012.
Paul Cribbin
Chris Dawes (trd) - He has had injuries Melb years with his healthiest year being 2014. Compared to 2012, he kicked slightly more goals but wasn't taking more marks, and was getting less disposals. The comparison holds true back to 2010. He might have made a "solid citizen" contribution to another premiership but you could say that Jesse White has delivered about the same.
Daniel Farmer
Shae McNamara
Luke Rounds
Lachlan Smith
Trent Stubbs
Chris Tarrant (ret.)
Kirk Ugle
Sharrod Wellingham (trd) The change in role at WC has made comparisons difficult but he had comparable possessions etc for 2012 to 2010. If his attitude had been right, he would have been kept. The question is whether he would have got back on track at the Pies, as he did at WC when he got a kick in the pants.
Cameron Wood - proven not up to standard
Tom Young (trd) - proven not up to standard
2013
Alan Didak (del) Kicked 41 goals in 2010. Had 590 possessions of which 1/3 were contested. about 3 tackles a game. By 2011, everything down, including impact in finals. 2012 less games and less possessions. Tackling almost non-existent. Less goals... less everthing. No argument from me for delisting him.
Corey Gault (del)
Michael Hartley (del)
Ben Johnson (ret)
Darren Jolly (del) - signficant player in 2010. He kicked 24 goals but that was halved in 2011 and 2012. Tackles were even better in 2012 than 2010 but marking declined from 131 to 58 from only 6 less games. Hit outs remained high but no longer as dominant. He had legitimate claims to being retained but he wasnt delivering what he did in 2010. A reason for the decline.
Andrew Krakouer (del) 30 years of age in 2013 and only able to deliver 10 games in previous 2 years. Irrelevant to this debate as he didnt had much impact in MM's last year or Buckley's first. Another reason for the decline post 2011
Jackson Paine (trd) - proven not up to standard
Ben Richmond (del)
Jordan Russell (del)
Heath Shaw (trd) - A genuine loss - no stats required. We all know his failings but the question is whether another coach than Buckley could have got the best out of him.
Dale Thomas (FA) - Superstar in 2010/2011. Played almost full year in 2014 but possessions down about a 1/3 although played less games. Would have been in a post 2012 premiership team but would not have made anywhere near the contribution. The big question is his pay packet. Another reason for the decline post 2011.
2014
Tony Armstrong (del)
Luke Ball (ret)
Dayne Beams (trd) - Another genuine loss. Did he leave just because of Bucks? I doubt it.
Marty Clarke (del)
Ben Hudson (ret)
Heritier Lumumba (trd) Nothing from the stats indicate he has gotten better or worse. There is a reasonable argument that he could have played his role in post 2011 premierships.
Quinten Lynch (ret)
Nick Maxwell (ret)
Caolan Mooney (del)
Peter Yagmoor (del) -
Summing Up
As far as I'm concerned, there's very little here to suggest that these players could have maintained Collingwood in the top 4 post 2011. In fact, players like Thomas, Jolly and Didak declined in their performances post 2011, and would probably had gone worse if they had stayed at the Pies. Players like Lumumba and Dawes might have done a similar job but they weren't going to have a major impact on keeping the Pies at the top ....so you cant say the Pies dropped off because they were moved on. Shaw and Beams were key losses. You have to remember that you can't have your cake and eat it too and both players delivered good returns to the Pies when they left.
In the end, I just dont see the argument that it was the loss of these players that caused Collingwood to fall on the premiership ladder. Of course that doesn't mean Buckley wasnt the problem. It just means that I cant see sufficient evidence of the urban myth that Collingwood wasted a talented young list post 2011....
Now I've wasted an hour at work , I can move on to wasting time doing something else.
So first, we look at the delistings for 2012-2014. The players in bold are the ones that could have given more in subsequent years. Most of the players that we delisted haven't got a comment because I dont think they warrant it.
2012
Simon Buckley
Jonathon Ceglar - He performed well but other hawks were preferred in finals. His output wouldn't have made much of a difference to Pies post 2012.
Paul Cribbin
Chris Dawes (trd) - He has had injuries Melb years with his healthiest year being 2014. Compared to 2012, he kicked slightly more goals but wasn't taking more marks, and was getting less disposals. The comparison holds true back to 2010. He might have made a "solid citizen" contribution to another premiership but you could say that Jesse White has delivered about the same.
Daniel Farmer
Shae McNamara
Luke Rounds
Lachlan Smith
Trent Stubbs
Chris Tarrant (ret.)
Kirk Ugle
Sharrod Wellingham (trd) The change in role at WC has made comparisons difficult but he had comparable possessions etc for 2012 to 2010. If his attitude had been right, he would have been kept. The question is whether he would have got back on track at the Pies, as he did at WC when he got a kick in the pants.
Cameron Wood - proven not up to standard
Tom Young (trd) - proven not up to standard
2013
Alan Didak (del) Kicked 41 goals in 2010. Had 590 possessions of which 1/3 were contested. about 3 tackles a game. By 2011, everything down, including impact in finals. 2012 less games and less possessions. Tackling almost non-existent. Less goals... less everthing. No argument from me for delisting him.
Corey Gault (del)
Michael Hartley (del)
Ben Johnson (ret)
Darren Jolly (del) - signficant player in 2010. He kicked 24 goals but that was halved in 2011 and 2012. Tackles were even better in 2012 than 2010 but marking declined from 131 to 58 from only 6 less games. Hit outs remained high but no longer as dominant. He had legitimate claims to being retained but he wasnt delivering what he did in 2010. A reason for the decline.
Andrew Krakouer (del) 30 years of age in 2013 and only able to deliver 10 games in previous 2 years. Irrelevant to this debate as he didnt had much impact in MM's last year or Buckley's first. Another reason for the decline post 2011
Jackson Paine (trd) - proven not up to standard
Ben Richmond (del)
Jordan Russell (del)
Heath Shaw (trd) - A genuine loss - no stats required. We all know his failings but the question is whether another coach than Buckley could have got the best out of him.
Dale Thomas (FA) - Superstar in 2010/2011. Played almost full year in 2014 but possessions down about a 1/3 although played less games. Would have been in a post 2012 premiership team but would not have made anywhere near the contribution. The big question is his pay packet. Another reason for the decline post 2011.
2014
Tony Armstrong (del)
Luke Ball (ret)
Dayne Beams (trd) - Another genuine loss. Did he leave just because of Bucks? I doubt it.
Marty Clarke (del)
Ben Hudson (ret)
Heritier Lumumba (trd) Nothing from the stats indicate he has gotten better or worse. There is a reasonable argument that he could have played his role in post 2011 premierships.
Quinten Lynch (ret)
Nick Maxwell (ret)
Caolan Mooney (del)
Peter Yagmoor (del) -
Summing Up
As far as I'm concerned, there's very little here to suggest that these players could have maintained Collingwood in the top 4 post 2011. In fact, players like Thomas, Jolly and Didak declined in their performances post 2011, and would probably had gone worse if they had stayed at the Pies. Players like Lumumba and Dawes might have done a similar job but they weren't going to have a major impact on keeping the Pies at the top ....so you cant say the Pies dropped off because they were moved on. Shaw and Beams were key losses. You have to remember that you can't have your cake and eat it too and both players delivered good returns to the Pies when they left.
In the end, I just dont see the argument that it was the loss of these players that caused Collingwood to fall on the premiership ladder. Of course that doesn't mean Buckley wasnt the problem. It just means that I cant see sufficient evidence of the urban myth that Collingwood wasted a talented young list post 2011....
Now I've wasted an hour at work , I can move on to wasting time doing something else.
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