Universal Love The thread for the positive sydney will win the grand final people

[Bonz]

The main reason we can win the grand final is simple.

We have done very very well recently in Adam Goodes's absence.

The fact he did well in a running session on Friday and is expected to train this week is perfect for us!!!

Image going into a prelim and having an IN as big as Goodes, Would be a huge confidence boost.

 

[grimlock]

I know you people love stats as much as I do, check out the results of the qualifying finals since this Top 8 system was introduced in 2000. I've highlighted the upsets in bold.

2000
1-Essendon 31.12 (198) bt. 4-Kangaroos 11.7 (73)
3-Melbourne 15.6 (96) bt. 2-Carlton 12.15 (87)

2001
1-Essendon 17.11 (113) bt. 4-Richmond 5.13 (43)
2-Brisbane 12.16 (88) bt. 3-Port Adelaide 8.8 (56)

2002
4-Collingwood 16.12 (108) bt. 1-Port Adelaide 14.11 (95)
2-Brisbane 17.13 (115) bt. 3-Adelaide 5.14 (44)

2003
4-Sydney 15.10 (100) bt. 1-Port Adelaide 13.10 (88)
2-Collingwood 9.12 (66) bt. 3-Brisbane 7.9 (51)

2004
1-Port Adelaide 18.9 (117) bt. 4-Geelong 9.8 (62)
2-Brisbane 23.11 (149) bt. 3-St Kilda 10.9 (69)

2005
4-St Kilda 10.5 (65) bt. 1-Adelaide 8.9 (57)
2-West Coast 10.9 (69) bt. 3-Sydney 10.5 (65)

2006
4-Sydney 13.7 (85) bt. 1-West Coast 12.12 (84)
2-Adelaide 10.16 (76) bt. 3-Fremantle 7.4 (46)

2007
1-Geelong 23.18 (156) bt. 4-Kangaroos 8.2 (50)
2-Port Adelaide 9.14 (68) bt. 3-West Coast 9.11 (65)

2008
1-Geelong 17.17 (119) bt. 4-St Kilda 8.13 (61)
2-Hawthorn 18.19 (127) bt. 3-Western Bulldogs 11.10 (76)

2009
1-St Kilda 12.8 (80) bt. 4-Collingwood 7.10 (52)
2-Geelong 14.12 (96) bt. 3-Western Bulldogs 12.10 (82)

2010
1-Collingwood 17.22 (124) bt. 4-Western Bulldogs 8.14 (62)
3-St Kilda 12.11 (83) bt. 2-Geelong 11.13 (79)

2011
1-Collingwood 12.10 (82) bt. 4-West Coast 9.8 (62)
2-Geelong 14.14 (98) bt. 3-Hawthorn 9.13 (67)

2012
1-Hawthorn 20.15 (135) bt. 4-Collingwood 15.7 (97)
3-Sydney 11.5 (71) bt. 2-Adelaide 5.12 (42)

Of the 26 qualifying finals, there have been 7 upsets and we have claimed 3 of them (would be 4 if not for some dodgy umpiring in the '05 QF - cue Leg End). Of the 4 non-Swans upsets, 2 of them can be attributed to the neutral venue of the MCG (Melbourne beating Carlton in 2000 and St Kilda beating Geelong in 2010). The Swans will always have the home ground advantage to overcome, regardless of whether we play in Melbourne or one of the other interstate venues. Yet we have managed to claim 3 out of 4 of the qualifying finals we have competed in since 2000, all away from home, all against higher ranked teams.

Our qualifying final record is exemplary. We are a finals hardened team, we thrive on the contest and turn up the pressure when September rolls around. This is why we can win this week, why we can host a prelim and get to another Grand Final in 2013.

 

[MF]

I'm feeling finals hardened right now.

 

[RW]

LOL at North's only two top 4 appearances in that time...

 

[alanlau34]

I'll come back with some more when I think of it.

6. We have gone from being hunted all season, to now being the hunters and flying under the radar for the finals

7. Despite talk by Darc and "others", our talls can be a strength if they separate and work hard to lead. I would back Tippett, White, Mummy and Pyke to win more than their fair share of one on ones. They need to be dangerous and make each of their defenders accountable.

8. Our mids are kicking into gear. Kennedy always steps up in September, and we were operating as a unit on Friday. No way our guys will fall asleep in finals like they did a few weeks back.

9. Hawthorn are chokers, Geelong are hot and cold, Freo have had the softest run into finals and I don't see the bottom half troubling anyone.

10. and just to round out the 10, the we did it last year against all odds. Beat Adelaide in Adelaide, Collingwood after 11 losses in a row, and the Hawks at the MCG after a long run out outs there. I'll back the boys in til the final siren on the last Saturday in September.

 

[Day_night_honourer]

LOL at North's only two top 4 appearances in that time...

..and a combined losing margin of 231 between those 2 finals! Hah!

I booked my to Swans GF flight about 1 month ago when I was feeling confident about us .. it resulted well last year when I did similar, so thought I'd try that trick again..

 

[The King!]

Let me know your tshirt size for when we win the flag and the members of this thread get matching told you so shirts

 

[disgruntled goat]

I did spend probly 15 minutes or so after Friday night's game feeling that immediate disappointment of losing a game I really did think we were going to win ... but then it hit me: we're coming into the finals on the right side of the form curve ... a month ago, from the Collingwood loss through to the Geelong loss, our form had clearly dipped, and the midfield was the main reason for that. But from the opening bounce the other night it was clear we'd found something, despite the midfield largely still not being back to its best ... Grundy needs to step up, but if he and Richards can do a job on Roughead and the midfield lifts again, the return of Tippett (joining a further improving White) will surely really stretch the Hawks' defence. The return of Max Bailey is a sign Hawthorn remains worried about our Mumford-Pyke ruck combination, as Bailey can't be 100 per cent fit. And now Buddy's out ...

But mainly, it's finals, and I have no doubt we're going in prepared.
With the experience of 2012 a) boosting our own mindset (as in, we did it last year on the back of three losses going in, we can dop it again), but also b) creating doubt in every other finals team, particularly Hawthorn.
As I posted somewhere on this board last week, it matters not a bit what other fans, the media, etc think of our chances, there's not one team who'd be keen to play us in finals. It doesn't matter who's fit or not, if you're playing the team in red and white you know you're in for a very hard couple of hours.

 

[bungee]

We're in with a very good chance. Mobility of our tall forwards will be one of the keys to us winning. They need to be up and about. Franklin and Roughy are a good example of how a defence can be fragmented by mobile tall forwards. Too easy for a good defence if they all crowd together. Tippet and White (+ Pyke and Mummy) are all peaking at the right time. That's a heck of a lot of fire power if used wisely.

 

[PaulRoos]

alanlau34, cool post man ... I agree with you 100%

Can we win it ? I'm not counting on anything but !!

Go Swans !

 

[bungee]

Not sure about the foxing bit but everything else, I agree with...

.....do it for the likes of Jude and McGlynn ...

Oh he has foxed with real cunning has our Horse. Why the drop in form as we approached the end of season ? One thing. Training load was ramped up. We needed to do enough to secure 4th. That was easily done and the rest is prep for the real thing. The minor premiership means nothing. The MCG holds as much welcome to us as ANZ so no reason to play for home ground advantage. Meanwhile Horse has been blooding plenty of players to ensure we can cover for any stars unable to make it back in time. Shaw out was unforeseen and no doubt caused a ripple in the master plan. Still we had enough and tested it against Hawks. 3 shining quarters and a cruise to the end in a dead rubber. Enough to mark our players with confidence but not so much that we won the thing or had anyone injured. A foxier fox there never was.

Yes, let's do it for Bolton and Benny but don't forget Gary. He saw his career shattered while the team played on to ultimate victory. He's worked his nuts off to get back on board. He knows where this ship is headed and he wants to sail with her. For guys like Everitt who sat forlornly on the fringe until chance came calling. For young Tom (the cabin boy) who battled injury to make his fine debut. For guys like Rampe who have worked so hard to get us where we are now. For Tippet and the ultimate 'up yours' to Adelaide when he kisses the silver cup and for Jesse, a talent which may have never grown to flower. Onward to the promised land.

 

[Sketi]

Loving this thread guys

You forget that just a month ago everyone was saying we were the team to beat, yet now we are written off after a bit of a dip in form even though we have basically the same team (potentially strengthened this weekend). Timing our run perhaps

 

[alanlau34]

Let me know your tshirt size for when we win the flag and the members of this thread get matching told you so shirts

Extra small, I'm trying to go for the Kurt Tippett look

 

[Ships]

Oh he has foxed with real cunning has our Horse. Why the drop in form as we approached the end of season ? One thing. Training load was ramped up. We needed to do enough to secure 4th. That was easily done and the rest is prep for the real thing. The minor premiership means nothing. The MCG holds as much welcome to us as ANZ so no reason to play for home ground advantage. Meanwhile Horse has been blooding plenty of players to ensure we can cover for any stars unable to make it back in time. Shaw out was unforeseen and no doubt caused a ripple in the master plan. Still we had enough and tested it against Hawks. 3 shining quarters and a cruise to the end in a dead rubber. Enough to mark our players with confidence but not so much that we won the thing or had anyone injured. A foxier fox there never was.

Yes, let's do it for Bolton and Benny but don't forget Gary. He saw his career shattered while the team played on to ultimate victory. He's worked his nuts off to get back on board. He knows where this ship is headed and he wants to sail with her. For guys like Everitt who sat forlornly on the fringe until chance came calling. For young Tom (the cabin boy) who battled injury to make his fine debut. For guys like Rampe who have worked so hard to get us where we are now. For Tippet and the ultimate 'up yours' to Adelaide when he kisses the silver cup and for Jesse, a talent which may have never grown to flower. Onward to the promised land.

Yep, indeed there are a few stories to be told. I'll buy 22 of what you are selling.

 

[Ships]

Extra small, I'm trying to go for the Kurt Tippett look

I'm liking the idea of getting a shirt design together. 'Back to back', 'told you so' ... any other ideas?

 

[alanlau34]

I'm liking the idea of getting a shirt design together. 'Back to back', 'told you so' ... any other ideas?

"Suck it Hawthorn flogs, stick your asterix up your arse"

"Sorry Punts, better luck next year" (only cuz I know Punts will never come into this thread)

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

I'm liking the idea of getting a shirt design together. 'Back to back', 'told you so' ... any other ideas?

A shirt with "Sydney Swans AFL Premiers 2012" on the back and "Sydney Swans AFL Premiers 2013" on the back...

 

[Ships]

A shirt with "Sydney Swans AFL Premiers 2012" on the back and "Sydney Swans AFL Premiers 2013" on the back...

You've just rubixed my brain.

 

[PaulRoos]

Extra small, I'm trying to go for the Kurt Tippett look

Make mine a large. I'm not quite a large but after the final siren reckon I'll need it .... will be feeling pretty pumped for the next 12 months.

 

[Sanecow]

 

[bungee]

I feel this thread should probably be locked now

 

[The King!]

I feel this thread should probably be locked now

Ahh cmon suns up, time to reset for next week

 

[grimlock]

Only two sides out of twenty six who finished top 4 have gone out in straight sets
Carlton and Richmond are amongst the few top eight sides that we have beaten
This game is very likely to be at the SCG
We have an extra day's break

 

[Jack2Jack]

Surely if we somehow pull off a flag they won't include last nights dvd in the victory pack.

Was glad to see Jack talk about our forward entries post game, about the fact they keep bombing and don't lower the eyes. The players are obviously aware of it and it's an area that can be fixed up quickly, and top 4 teams rarely go out in straight sets, despite the fact the media and everyone else falls off the top4 side who has the biggest loss every year.

If we win next week we give ourselves a prelim against the cats or dockers, which is still a great opportunity in itself. Also we did lose our first final in 05 (as did wce in 06) to bounce back so however unlikely it can still be done, although it had to be said the losses were a bit more competitive.
We're not out of it yet though, Adelaide struggled against us in the qualifying final only to nearly roll the hawks a few weeks later. All it may take is one good win against a good side next week to regain form. We shouldn't give up till we're actually eliminated.

Whatever happens this season though we're well and truly in a premiership window, there's a bit to work on but a lot of talent to work with. I think we could still get another flag out of this playing group yet.

 

[bungee]

... the fact they keep bombing and don't lower the eyes. The players are obviously aware of it and it's an area that can be fixed up quickly...

They say this after every Tippet game. If it could be fixed up quickly it wouldn't be a problem but I suspect it's a structural thing. Our game plan revolves around midfielders streaming forward and running back defensively. Bombing to talls allows defenders to mop up easily, share the ball around, switch and set up a rebound of uncontested possession which runs our midfielders completely ragged and negates our ability to run both ways. We therefore either i) ignore the talls (then why have them ?) or ii) we need fast small forwards who can crumb the talls and lock the ball in our 50.

Sadly I'm outta this thread.