Oppo Camp The View from the Opposition: Hawthorn v Sydney

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Hello Swans fans,

I've been asked by robbieando to put together a preview for the Hawks v Swans game, as a view from the other side. It came out a little longer than I planned, for which I do apologise, but I have tried to be as impartial as possible. Anyway, here goes:

Few matches are more anticipated during the Home & Away season than the Grand Final rematch. The two best sides of the previous season are always eager to reacquaint themselves with each other, but this game has more riding on it than the result of the Grand Final, or even the margin; this game is important for the mere matter of the relative positions of the sides at this stage of the season.

Hawthorn have spluttered through the season so far, with massive wins against Melbourne, North Melbourne and former arch-rivals Geelong being punctuated by narrow losses to Greater Western Sydney, Port Adelaide and, to our lasting shame, Essendon. Forget that this is a Grand Final rematch; this is simply a game of football that Hawthorn must win. A loss puts us four games behind Fremantle, two games behind Sydney, and makes finishing top two all the more difficult, let alone top four. In a season where the top teams look to be coming from Perth, Adelaide and Sydney, having to travel in week one of the finals can be the difference between a three-peat or a preliminary final loss. Having said that, Hawthorn need to win just to put together two wins in a row.

Notorious for their slow starts to the season, Sydney have barely got out of their comfort zone in most of their games, losing only to Fremantle in Perth and being ambushed at home by the Bulldogs. Victory in a rematch always means more to the runner-up than it does to the premier, but as a game of football within a long season, this game is just as vital to the Swans as it is to the Hawks. Win here, and you put two games between us without allowing Fremantle to get any further ahead, not to mention how important it is to prove to yourselves that you can win at the venue where the most important game of the year is played.

Hawthorn will seek to use the wide open spaces of the MCG to the advantage of an elite kicking game that shortens the ground and allows us to score quickly, pulverising the opposition in bursts of play that result in quick goals. Sydney are used to playing a hard, contested style, perfectly suited to the smaller SCG, yet due to the quality of its personnel, applicable anywhere. The key to victory for each team is being able to play its own game. If Hawthorn finds space, the Swans will be cut up by precision kicking, however if Sydney can keep the ball in close, its midfielders moving it forward through quick handballs through the congestion to runners, on the ouside then the Hawks will get frustrated at their inability to play the game on their own terms. Compare the kicking accuracy, both in the field and on the scoreboard, between Hawthorn's wins and losses. There tends to be a noticeable difference.

The players holding the key to a Hawthorn victory:

Sam Mitchell: A player that is within the top ten of our club's history. As a contested ball-winner he doesn't need space to hurt the opposition, but if he finds it he will do a lot more than hurt; his disposal on both sides is elite, and his decision-making is almost the equal of anyone to play the game.

Grant Birchall: The prototypical footballer of the Clarkson era, a long and accurate left-foot kick who is trusted with starting the run off of half-back. During a very successful era for Hawthorn, in the games we've lost it's often because he's either been out injured or kept quiet.

Josh Gibson: Our best and most versatile defender. His athleticism, leap and pace make him the most equipped to deal with Franklin, and his disposal sets up so many of our counter attacks out of defence.

David Hale: Hardly one of our bigger names, but our forward line looks so much more functional with him in it. An underrated contested mark, solid set shot, and capable ruckman who has been one of the corner stones of the last two flags. We are a better team with him in it.

Matt Suckling: This will raise some eyebrows amongst my fellow Hawks. He is often viewed as a soft, one-trick pony, and there is a very firm view emerging on our board that he provides the cream, rather than the cake. I have a soft spot for Suckling, as I remember him destroying Essendon when their drug-induced fairy tale was beginning to unravel in the back half of 2012, but one thing I have noticed is that when he is allowed the time and space to use that left-foot, Hawthorn's forward thrusts are at their most devastating. When he is denied that time and space, he is forced to kick sideways or handball to a player in a poor position. Essentially his entire reason for being in the side is rendered moot if he's not allowed that space on his left-side.

The players holding the key to a Swans victory:

Lance Franklin: In my opinion, he's still the best player in the game. I've seen him do things that no one else has done, and the best part of it all is the grin he wears while he's doing it. Buddy loves to destroy opponents, and not many players have been able to do it as easily as he can.

Luke Parker: It won't be long until the man I just called the best player in the game won't even be the best player in his own side. Parker has blossomed into one of the competition's elite midfielders, and after his performance against Geelong, has shown himself to be a genuine goal-kicker too.

Josh Kennedy: Still the Swan's best midfielder, although Parker is breathing down his neck. His strength, speed and ball-winning ability are his best attributes, and while his kicking is not elite, his workrate certainly is. Goes all right off the field too.

Jarrad McVeigh: One of the Swan's best users of the footy, and someone who can have an impact out of the centre or off halfback. More than that, he is a heartbeat for the club. He has a good game in the 2012 Grand Final and Sydney win; he has a poor game in the 2014 decider and Sydney lose.

Tom Mitchell: There's been big wraps on him, and now that he's got his opportunity, he's not letting it slip. He's been in excellent form lately, getting a lot of the ball and using it well, his football brain more than making up for the lack of leg speed. It's not just his surname that's familiar.


Good luck, and thank you for your hospitality!
 
Luke Parker: It won't be long until the man I just called the best player in the game won't even be the best player in his own side. Parker has blossomed into one of the competition's elite midfielders, and after his performance against Geelong, has shown himself to be a genuine goal-kicker too.

Anyone who's kept an eye on Parker knew he could kick goals. He's pretty clutch in front of goals. It's just that he usually spends his time in the midfield using his body as a battering ram.

Good preview btw
 

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The outside running players for the Hawks are a worry - Smith and Hill. More worrying than Hale who might not get picked and Suckling.
 
The outside running players for the Hawks are a worry - Smith and Hill. More worrying than Hale who might not get picked and Suckling.

Smith and Hill are crucial to our structure, but I wanted to highlight a couple of the players who tend to get ignored by other club's supporters. Hale's one of our best role players, even though he's not a superstar; half of his job is to keep a defender busy, and away from Roughead and Gunston, the other half is to kick a goal or two and serve as the relief ruckman. I can't see McEvoy getting picked ahead of him for a few weeks yet.

There's quite a discussion about Suckling on our board at the moment; he's a player who when he's on song looks a million dollars, but if he's not, then all the deficiencies in his game are on show. He does find a lot of the ball, but if his left side is well guarded, it's going nowhere. Stop him, and you've stopped one of Hawthorn's most damaging deliverers inside 50.
 
Really boils down to two things

1. Midfield battle, well for us making it a battle instead of capitulation meaning we actually tackle this time

2. Mitchell, lesser extent Hodge. If they are again allowed to simply wonder all over the shop and pick up cheap free possessions to distribute we are toast.

It aint rocket science but Horse seems to struggle with point 2 a lot since 2012 and he lost ROK
 
Lot of threads for this Round 8 clash

Big Match, but I did ask the OP to create this thread months ago so reasonable discussion can take place between supporters of the two clubs and then have own normal thread plus a banter thread for the Hawk trolls who like to visit.

I can say the OP is the most reasonable Hawks poster on Big Footy, has a better mind for football than myself and isn't like the rest of the Hawks Board.
 
Suckling seems to be their version of Malceski, which perhaps makes it not that surprising that the Hawks paid Malceski so much respect when we played them, because they know how damaging he can be given time and space.
 

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Good review- especially of the key players!!!

I took this outta your review; this game is basically inside vs outside.

If the contest stays mainly inside and hawks are under pressure for most disposals and minimise run and carry we win.

If they are allowed to have time and space to use elite footskills we loose.

Simple.

Note: kinda a reason why is a risk to play goodes and he is a bit of a defensive liability.
Also interesting to note that Hawks havent lost on the inside yet this year (port/bombers was on outside and run/poor disposals outta HB from Hawks). GWS carved them on the outside and were classly infront of goal (then again hawks had about 5 outs for that game).
 
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Not sure if Sydney are making any changes at the selection table this week. Maybe Bird for Towers?


FB: Dane Rampe - Ted Richards - Heath Grundy
FF: Luke Breust - Jarryd Roughead - David Hale

HB: Nick Smith - Sam Reid - Rhyce Shaw
HF: Cyril Rioli - Jack Gunston - Shaun Burgoyne

C: Daniel Hannebery - Josh Kennedy - Lewis Jetta
C: Isaac Smith - Jordan Lewis - Bradley Hill

HF: Gary Rohan - Lance Franklin - Jarrad McVeigh
HB: Grant Birchall - James Frawley - Josh Gibson

F: Adam Goodes - Kurt Tippett - Ben McGlynn
FB: Ben Stratton - Brian Lake - Taylor Duryea

R: Mike Pyke - Kieren Jack - Luke Parker
R: Jonathon Ceglar - Sam Mitchell - Liam Shiels

INT: Craig Bird - Jake Lloyd - Jeremy Laidler - Tom Mitchell
INT: Matt Suckling - Billy Hartung - Will Langford - Paul Puopolo



Key match-ups

Brian Lake vs Kurt Tippett

This dual might not determine the result of the game, but how both these players fare for their clubs could be pivotal. If Tippett gets on the scoreboard and kicks 3-4 goals Swans will win this game. Lake might be slightly underdone here and could be lacking some match fitness. Though it's possible that Tippett may also pinch-hit in the ruck during the course of the match which could see Lake playing on Franklin if Buddy plays deep out of the goal square.


James Frawley vs Lance Franklin

This match-up is going to be decisive one. What will Buddy's goal tally be on the end of the night? Fair to say Franklin yet again he is going to be the difference here. He could kick 6.6 or 3.6 for example. He's going to generate a lot of scoring shots no matter what we do. It's going to be hard to stop him. Frawley has played on Franklin in the past when he was at the Dees and done a reasonable job on occasions. This time it will be a lot harder to contain Franklin given Frawley is still underdone and hasn't really settled into our defense.


Bradley Hill vs Lewis Jetta

Both teams depend on Hill and Jetta to provide the run and carry and no doubt these two speedsters who go head to head on Saturday night. Stats wise both players are having relatively even seasons to this point. Although Hill has been down on last years form. Lewis Jetta has been quite good for the Swans with his delivery going inside and he's also kicking goals. Who comes out on top of this match-up will tip the result in their teams favor.


Liam Shiels vs Luke Parker

Containing Luke Parker should be Hawthorn's number one priority on Saturday night in my opinion. Parker is the Swans in form player and could be leading the Swans Best & Fairest at this stage of the season. He even be a smokey for the Brownlow medal. His game last week against Geelong was super impressive getting involved in everything and he had 12 score involvements and more impressively 4 contested marks. For a player who stands at about 183cm that's a pretty good effort. I think Shiels will get the role of tagging Parker. It won't be an easy task for Liam Shiels containing the inform Swan. If Parker puts in another big game the Swans will win.


Jordan Lewis vs Josh Kennedy

Two clearance machines going head to head. Lewis was the Hawks inform player before his suspension, but now has a tough job of curbing Joey Kennedy's influence. Both players like to push forward and kick goals as they are so strong overhead given their sheer size and strength as midfielders. These two are likely to be All-Australian selections come end of the year. Really looking forward to this match-up. Josh Kennedy was one of the Swans best against the Cats last Saturday and goes into this game in really good form. This dual is going to be vital as to who wins those center bounce clearances. Both are ranked #1 at their clubs for clearances in 2015.


Luke Breust vs Nick Smith


Nick Smith is still the Premier small defender in the competition and will likely go to Breust yet again. Strangely Breust was the only player who beat Smith last year in all three encounters in 2015 and again will be a tough match-up for Smith given Breust is strong overhead in and those 1:1 marking contests. Even though he's averaging more goals in 2015 then last year Breust has been below his standards this year. Nick Smith is such a gun small defender because he can defend and also be a handy link-up player coming out of defense. He's going at 83% disposal efficiency which would be up there amongst the Swans best ball users/decision makers.


Form

Hawthorn: 6th (4 wins - 3 losses) 153% (WLWLWLW)
Sydney: 3rd (5 wins - 2 losses) 131% (WWWLLWW)


2015 Stats

Hawks - Swans
402 Disposals 390
229 Kicks 209
173 Handballs 181
106 Marks 80
12 Contested Marks 8
12 Tackles Inside 50 12
16 Marks Inside 50 12
62 Inside 50s 57
42 Clearances 44
137 CP 145
62 Tackles 73
47 Hit-outs 52
 
Not sure if Sydney are making any changes at the selection table this week. Maybe Bird for Towers?


FB: Dane Rampe - Ted Richards - Heath Grundy
FF: Luke Breust - Jarryd Roughead - David Hale

HB: Nick Smith - Sam Reid - Rhyce Shaw
HF: Cyril Rioli - Jack Gunston - Shaun Burgoyne

C: Daniel Hannebery - Josh Kennedy - Lewis Jetta
C: Isaac Smith - Jordan Lewis - Bradley Hill

HF: Luke Parker - Lance Franklin - Jarrad McVeigh
HB: Grant Birchall - James Frawley - Josh Gibson

F: Adam Goodes - Kurt Tippett - Ben McGlynn
FB: Ben Stratton - Brian Lake - Taylor Duryea

R: Mike Pyke - Kieren Jack - Luke Parker
R: Jonathon Ceglar - Sam Mitchell - Liam Shiels

INT: Craig Bird - Jake Lloyd - Jeremy Laidler - Gary Rohan
INT: Matt Suckling - Billy Hartung - Will Langford - Paul Puopolo


I dont think Bird adds value as a sub, unless Goodes will be sub i expect Towers to keep the spot but thats just me.

I also would guess Reid wont take a tall forward, Rampe will get Gunston.

I am concerned with Richards v Roughead and Grundy v Hale (due to height if isolated).

Laidler could take one of the forwards, i suspect he will start on the ground, big game for him, last time he played the hawks he was awful

I would like to see Reid actually take someone, Hale or Gunston but when does he ever do that. If shaw goes to burgoyne he better play him tight, i would line our defence up how you have though personally.

Is Lake a certain starter?
 
Smith should take Rioli.

Bruest is the issue. Laidler will have to take him. That worries me. I would actually prefer Laidler play forward this week and Rohan back - won't happen but there it is. Let's face it, if we deliver like we have been into our forward 50 Rohan will just spend all day running around looking fast but never impacting anything - Hawks have more skill in moving it than other sides.

I think Towers will come in for the game and Goodes sub. Towers to try and tag Smith - good luck but whatever.

Gunston will have Rampe again - the one match up I am confident we can win. Rampe is superb on him.
 
Goodes should start imo

if only to make someone like Gibson accountable

Really we need to control the midfield and keep it in our forward line

if roughead gets it one out v any of our backman he will mark it just about every time lets face it

But if we actually just once in a while got it to Tippett one out he would do the same (and no hawks lurkers I am not saying Tippett is better than Roughead)
 
Goodes should start imo

if only to make someone like Gibson accountable

Really we need to control the midfield and keep it in our forward line

if roughead gets it one out v any of our backman he will mark it just about every time lets face it

But if we actually just once in a while got it to Tippett one out he would do the same (and no hawks lurkers I am not saying Tippett is better than Roughead)
I would say it. Tippett just is made of paper
 
Not sure if Sydney are making any changes at the selection table this week. Maybe Bird for Towers?


FB: Dane Rampe - Ted Richards - Heath Grundy
FF: Luke Breust - Jarryd Roughead - David Hale

HB: Nick Smith - Sam Reid - Rhyce Shaw
HF: Cyril Rioli - Jack Gunston - Shaun Burgoyne

C: Daniel Hannebery - Josh Kennedy - Lewis Jetta
C: Isaac Smith - Jordan Lewis - Bradley Hill

HF: Gary Rohan - Lance Franklin - Jarrad McVeigh
HB: Grant Birchall - James Frawley - Josh Gibson

F: Adam Goodes - Kurt Tippett - Ben McGlynn
FB: Ben Stratton - Brian Lake - Taylor Duryea

R: Mike Pyke - Kieren Jack - Luke Parker
R: Jonathon Ceglar - Sam Mitchell - Liam Shiels

INT: Craig Bird - Jake Lloyd - Jeremy Laidler - Tom Mitchell
INT: Matt Suckling - Billy Hartung - Will Langford - Paul Puopolo



Key match-ups

Brian Lake vs Kurt Tippett

This dual might not determine the result of the game, but how both these players fare for their clubs could be pivotal. If Tippett gets on the scoreboard and kicks 3-4 goals Swans will win this game. Lake might be slightly underdone here and could be lacking some match fitness. Though it's possible that Tippett may also pinch-hit in the ruck during the course of the match which could see Lake playing on Franklin if Buddy plays deep out of the goal square.


James Frawley vs Lance Franklin

This match-up is going to be decisive one. What will Buddy's goal tally be on the end of the night? Fair to say Franklin yet again he is going to be the difference here. He could kick 6.6 or 3.6 for example. He's going to generate a lot of scoring shots no matter what we do. It's going to be hard to stop him. Frawley has played on Franklin in the past when he was at the Dees and done a reasonable job on occasions. This time it will be a lot harder to contain Franklin given Frawley is still underdone and hasn't really settled into our defense.


Bradley Hill vs Lewis Jetta

Both teams depend on Hill and Jetta to provide the run and carry and no doubt these two speedsters who go head to head on Saturday night. Stats wise both players are having relatively even seasons to this point. Although Hill has been down on last years form. Lewis Jetta has been quite good for the Swans with his delivery going inside and he's also kicking goals. Who comes out on top of this match-up will tip the result in their teams favor.


Liam Shiels vs Luke Parker

Containing Luke Parker should be Hawthorn's number one priority on Saturday night in my opinion. Parker is the Swans in form player and could be leading the Swans Best & Fairest at this stage of the season. He even be a smokey for the Brownlow medal. His game last week against Geelong was super impressive getting involved in everything and he had 12 score involvements and more impressively 4 contested marks. For a player who stands at about 183cm that's a pretty good effort. I think Shiels will get the role of tagging Parker. It won't be an easy task for Liam Shiels containing the inform Swan. If Parker puts in another big game the Swans will win.


Jordan Lewis vs Josh Kennedy

Two clearance machines going head to head. Lewis was the Hawks inform player before his suspension, but now has a tough job of curbing Joey Kennedy's influence. Both players like to push forward and kick goals as they are so strong overhead given their sheer size and strength as midfielders. These two are likely to be All-Australian selections come end of the year. Really looking forward to this match-up. Josh Kennedy was one of the Swans best against the Cats last Saturday and goes into this game in really good form. This dual is going to be vital as to who wins those center bounce clearances. Both are ranked #1 at their clubs for clearances in 2015.


Luke Breust vs Nick Smith


Nick Smith is still the Premier small defender in the competition and will likely go to Breust yet again. Strangely Breust was the only player who beat Smith last year in all three encounters in 2015 and again will be a tough match-up for Smith given Breust is strong overhead in and those 1:1 marking contests. Even though he's averaging more goals in 2015 then last year Breust has been below his standards this year. Nick Smith is such a gun small defender because he can defend and also be a handy link-up player coming out of defense. He's going at 83% disposal efficiency which would be up there amongst the Swans best ball users/decision makers.


Form

Hawthorn: 6th (4 wins - 3 losses) 153% (WLWLWLW)
Sydney: 3rd (5 wins - 2 losses) 131% (WWWLLWW)


2015 Stats

Hawks - Swans
402 Disposals 390
229 Kicks 209
173 Handballs 181
106 Marks 80
12 Contested Marks 8
12 Tackles Inside 50 12
16 Marks Inside 50 12
62 Inside 50s 57
42 Clearances 44
137 CP 145
62 Tackles 73
47 Hit-outs 52

I've moved this to our opposition camp thread where hopefully more people see it, good preview. I agree with Reid going back, he seems to be playing more on the wing lately and appears to enjoy the freedom there but I'm not that confident in Rampe's defence at the moment.

Big one for N.Smith, as you say Breust had the better of him in 2014 and that doesn't happen often.

It's a big test for our defence this week, they have held up pretty well this year overall, but poor decision making by a few has put them under the pump at times.

Head still saying Hawks though.
 
I've moved this to our opposition camp thread where hopefully more people see it, good preview. I agree with Reid going back, he seems to be playing more on the wing lately and appears to enjoy the freedom there but I'm not that confident in Rampe's defence at the moment.

Big one for N.Smith, as you say Breust had the better of him in 2014 and that doesn't happen often.

It's a big test for our defence this week, they have held up pretty well this year overall, but poor decision making by a few has put them under the pump at times.

Head still saying Hawks though.

I think Reid should play back as he's got some good attributes that might come in handy as a defender. To me he seems lost in his current role as the 3rd-4th tall forward. Sam Reid's best season actually came in 2012 when he played as the number one marking forward, but with Buddy and Tippett both down there he's hardly getting on the end of it.

I'm not sure if it's going to happen, but Laidler or Rampe are actually better suited on Breust then Smith as they've got more size and strength. Nick Smith should actually play on Rioli as he did most times from 2009-2012 and Smith did beat Rioli nearly every time during those years.
 

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