Top 4 & Bottom 4 in 4 years time (2019)

[thetank]

So in four years time we'll be bottom four with a team including Roughead, Frawley, Birchall, Lewis, Hill, Rioli, Bruest, Suckling, Smith, McEvoy, Gunston, Stratton, Shiels, Langford... and we are very happy at Waverley with the development of Duryea, Litherland, Ceglar, O'Brien, O'Rourke, Anderson, Hartung, Heatherly, Woodward...

Am sure the Cats are the same.

(shakes head)

Someone has to be bottom...not many teams have been up for more than 10 years straight. Who would have thought that the greatest team of all time, Melbourne 1950-60s, would be bottom after winning 5 premierships in 6 years?

Time for you Hawks to spend some time down there! Roughead to fade to Gumbleton, and most of the blokes you listed to do a Cale Morton.

 

[Eastern Rangers]

This is the best way of looking at it IMO. However in the off-season it can throw the numbers out a bit. For example, Adelaide only have 6 over 27. But Ben Rutten just retired. This will hurt them a lot. Similar deal with West Coast. Glass and Cox both retiring is a big hit that hasn't been felt onfield yet. During the off-season recent retirees should be added to the list too.

Doubtful on Cox and Glass. Glass retired mid last season and has more than one obvious replacement and we've got Cox well covered.


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[Halftimehero]

And yet Gray wins as many clearances and contested possessions but also rotates up forward. Not bad for a guy who only spends half the time in the midfield eh? So basically Gray is as good a midfielder as Heppell, yet pants him in terms of versatility because he's a miles better forward player. There's no real way you can argue that Gray's year was inferior to Heppell's.



There's a difference between using stats like DE% which is a flawed stat and focusing on the 0.3 differences between Pendlebury and Heppell and illustrating the fact that Gray's goals and goal assists total (75) is miles more than Heppell's (75). There's also a difference between trying to use stats to illustrate who is a better kick and decision maker (a thing which requires one to watch the player) and the judging of who has more offensive output, which is more quantifiable. You can measure who are the better forwards in the league in terms of statistical output, but it takes watching the game to figure out who is the best kick in the league. Watson's DE% is better than Pendlebury's this year, yet Pendlebury is still the better kick.

I wasn't aware you couldn't win clearances and contested possessions forward of the centre?????

 

[santa claws]

So what areas do you think we need to improve? Positions etc..

i think we need to do better in all areas and raise the overall standard.
hmm to win a premiership in 2018 what do we need.

chf, plus tall fwd gunston like. both to partner riewoldt. we have only mckenzie at 18, and three utilities at 200cm. my problem with these three is i dont think any of em good enough to play 1st ruck independently or kpf independently.
fb big bodied pure defender capable of playing on and stopping power fwds. should not be asking rance to perform this role.astbury is 24 had a lot of injury and i have doubts with him. pppfffttt chaplin 1v1 on a player of similar size its a worry. elton is the only other kpd on the list and boy hes on shaky ground having shown so little in his time at the club so far.

one real big bodied mid who is a contested ball winner. on and on i can go. what high quality sml fwd do we have. accountable good skilled line running hbfers. what areas to we need to continue improve in. in a word most.

So in other words the only players on Richmond's list that you rate are either All Australians or All Australian squad members? Everyone else is a C-grader? Including Lambert who was drafted a week ago and hasn't even played a game yet?

How on Earth have we managed to play finals two years in a row?

so you tell me. who outside of cotchin, deledio, martin, miles, rance, riewoldt, maric, and maybe ellis are better than A grade = elite and B grade = very good consistently.
what you gunna argue about one or possibly two players. the fact is the vast majority of our players fall into the critical 22yo thru 28 yr old categories and the vast majority are very replacable.we are heavily reliant on juniors making it. yes they are c graders. and god forbid i say it in lots of cases worse.

do the simple exercise of taking riewoldt out of the team it leaves what tall fwds, griffiths, vickery and mckenzie, mckenzie is an 18 yr old taken at pick 77, he may be there in 4 yrs time he may not. i think the pick a beauty especially at 77. vickery and griffiths mate neither have shown to date they can play either ruck or kpf exclusively okay at both roles but nothing special. lose riewoldt it leaves a chasm. do the same with rance down back chaplin has shown time and again how poor he is 1v1 astbury shows promise and grimes is soft and too sml to play kpd. and maric in the ruck lol lets throw hamspud in.how poor has this bloke been not just at richmond his career at carlton was abysmal. lose miles for the yr and our ability to win enough contested ball and clearances plummets. what happened without these 4 this yr. we went 3 and 9. please tell me where we have addressed the problems.

on lambert hes 23 yrs old, hes a rookie how many actually make it. s**t i hope he plays plenty of games and is given a good go at it, but where exactly would you have me place him. atm c grade sort of fits dont you think and id say very fair.

 

[santa claws]

I said he was a step away from being just about the best in the league this year. Based on this year Ablett was the clear best in the league with Fyfe and Gray as the players I'd have as "just about the best player in the league". Heppell sat comfortably in the next group with Kennedy, Boak, Selwood, Parker and Rockliff imo.

you do understand there are many tiger supporters who are blind when it comes to heppell. many of us were highly critical of us taking conca and i suppose its some sort of defense mechanism thats been set off when talking heppell. god forbid we would have to admit we got the conca pick wrong.

anyway heppell is a fantastic player and has always been one right thru every rank hes played in. at 22 the worlds his oyster he hstill has enormous upside in several areas but good luck getting a tiger supporter to admit that.

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

do the simple exercise of taking riewoldt out of the team it leaves what tall fwds, griffiths, vickery and mckenzie, mckenzie is an 18 yr old taken at pick 77, he may be there in 4 yrs time he may not. i think the pick a beauty especially at 77. vickery and griffiths mate neither have shown to date they can play either ruck or kpf exclusively okay at both roles but nothing special. lose riewoldt it leaves a chasm. do the same with rance down back chaplin has shown time and again how poor he is 1v1 astbury shows promise and grimes is soft and too sml to play kpd. and maric in the ruck lol lets throw hamspud in.how poor has this bloke been not just at richmond his career at carlton was abysmal. lose miles for the yr and our ability to win enough contested ball and clearances plummets. what happened without these 4 this yr. we went 3 and 9. please tell me where we have addressed the problems.

on lambert hes 23 yrs old, hes a rookie how many actually make it. s**t i hope he plays plenty of games and is given a good go at it, but where exactly would you have me place him. atm c grade sort of fits dont you think and id say very fair.

They are 26 and 25 for all of next season. They aren't going anywhere anytime soon, which is kind of the point of this thread.

 

[Bazzar]

you do understand there are many tiger supporters who are blind when it comes to heppell. many of us were highly critical of us taking conca and i suppose its some sort of defense mechanism thats been set off when talking heppell. god forbid we would have to admit we got the conca pick wrong.

anyway heppell is a fantastic player and has always been one right thru every rank hes played in. at 22 the worlds his oyster he hstill has enormous upside in several areas but good luck getting a tiger supporter to admit that.

Why bring Conca into this? Any opportunity to bag Richmond and you are the first in.

 

[eldorado]

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[PieLebo87]

Anyone that doesn't have Collingwood in the top 4 has Peter Daicos's kid to answer to.

 

[Richo83]

I wasn't aware you couldn't win clearances and contested possessions forward of the centre?????

Center clearances per game this year:

Gray: 2.3
Heppell: 1.6

So let me get this straight, Gray spends more time up forward than Heppell, who is an out and out midfielder, yet Gray averages more center clearances than Heppell? And the only thing Heppell beats him at is things like rebound 50s and marks which are fairly unremarkable stats anyway?

 

[Collingwoodity]

Anyone that doesn't have Collingwood in the top 4 has Peter Daicos's kid to answer to.

I hope he turns out to be half as good as his dad.

 

[PieLebo87]

I hope he turns out to be half as good as his dad.

That'd equate to about 3 Brownlows.

 

[Richo83]

you do understand there are many tiger supporters who are blind when it comes to heppell. many of us were highly critical of us taking conca and i suppose its some sort of defense mechanism thats been set off when talking heppell. god forbid we would have to admit we got the conca pick wrong.

anyway heppell is a fantastic player and has always been one right thru every rank hes played in. at 22 the worlds his oyster he hstill has enormous upside in several areas but good luck getting a tiger supporter to admit that.

As the Richmond fan who has been commenting the most about Heppell, I can honestly say that Conca hasn't crossed my mind, a poster claimed a number of things, that a) Heppell was just about the best player in the league (only true if you fudge what you mean by just about a fair bit) or b) will become just about the best player in the league (only likely if, again, you make just about the best to mean say the top 20 or so players in the league, which for me means something different).

For me, the reason why I don't rate Heppell as much as Essendon fans is because he's not damaging enough in terms of pushing forward, nor are his passes that damaging. I'm happy to accept he's in the top 20 or so players in the league. I doubt he'll ever be just about the best player in the league. Franklin is that right now, he's very close to being as good as Ablett but isn't. Guys like Buckley, Kerr, Cousins, Black etc. were just about the best. Heppell isn't, and I doubt he ever will. Essendon fans need to accept that being as good as say Boak doesn't entitle you to claim that you're just about the best, it means you're in the top 20 or so.

 

[Halftimehero]

Center clearances per game this year:

Gray: 2.3
Heppell: 1.6

So let me get this straight, Gray spends more time up forward than Heppell, who is an out and out midfielder, yet Gray averages more center clearances than Heppell? And the only thing Heppell beats him at is things like rebound 50s and marks which are fairly unremarkable stats anyway?

The only thing he beat him at? ummmmm how about a stat like getting the ball? and a touch hard to win centre clearances when you are lining up on the wing at bounces isn't it?

 

[Richo83]

The only thing he beat him at? ummmmm how about a stat like getting the ball?

Gray is a miles better forward than him and a better contested player than him even though Gray spends less time in the middle. Heppell knows how to rack up stats, he's a bit Ablett like in that regard. He also beats him in rebound 50s and marks, stats which I don't care about. The eyesight says Gray, the key stats such as center clearances, goal assists and goals says Gray. I'd sure love to dump on a Port player given what they did to Richmond this finals series, but I just can't. Gray is in my opinion a better player.

 

[Halftimehero]

Center clearances per game this year:

Gray: 2.3
Heppell: 1.6

So let me get this straight, Gray spends more time up forward than Heppell, who is an out and out midfielder, yet Gray averages more center clearances than Heppell? And the only thing Heppell beats him at is things like rebound 50s and marks which are fairly unremarkable stats anyway?

He not only averages more disposals but more effective disposals but oh no he doesn't use the ball well enough does he?

 

[Halftimehero]

Gray is a miles better forward than him and a better contested player than him even though Gray spends less time in the middle. Heppell knows how to rack up stats, he's a bit Ablett like in that regard. He also beats him in rebound 50s and marks, stats which I don't care about. The eyesight says Gray, the key stats such as contested possessions, goal assists and goals says Gray. I'd sure love to dump on a Port player given what they did to Richmond this finals series, but I just can't. Gray is in my opinion a better player.

Wrong, Heppell averages more contested possessions

 

[Richo83]

He not only averages more disposals but more effective disposals but oh no he doesn't use the ball well enough does he?

Generally players who get the ball more often will get more effective disposals. Considering that a higher percentage of Heppell's disposals are uncontested, you'd expect his effective disposal numbers and his DE% to be higher. On the other hand, contested disposals often count handballs which boosts effective disposals counts. Which makes it a wash, and means that the effective disposals and DE% stats are fairly meaningless anyway because it's hard to really read anything specific into them.

When we were talking about effective disposal it was Penblebury versus Heppell, not Heppell versus Gray. Gray's kicks are more forward of center because he's a more offensive player, and forward 50 kicks are often the hardest because the ground shrinks, you have defenders pressuring the ball carrier as much as possible as well as defenders guarding the target of the delivery.

 

[Richo83]

Wrong, Heppell averages more contested possessions

My apologies, just clearances and center clearances instead.

 

[Halftimehero]

Generally players who get the ball more often will get more effective disposals. Considering that a higher percentage of Heppell's disposals are uncontested, you'd expect his effective disposal numbers and his DE% to be higher. On the other hand, contested disposals often count handballs which boosts effective disposals counts. Which makes it a wash, and means that the effective disposals and DE% stats are fairly meaningless anyway because it's hard to really read anything specific into them.

When we were talking about effective disposal it was Penblebury versus Heppell, not Heppell versus Gray. Gray's kicks are more forward of center because he's a more offensive player, and forward 50 kicks are often the hardest because the ground shrinks, you have defenders pressuring the ball carrier as much as possible as well as defenders guarding the target of the delivery.

Gray also has a higher amount of uncontested possessions compared to his contested possessions..........

 

[Richo83]

Gray also has a higher amount of uncontested possessions compared to his contested possessions..........

Yes, and given I find the effective possessions and DE% stats misleading, I don't really care. You get a whole lot of outside ball, it means your kicking is not under pressure. You get a whole lot of inside ball, it means you can handball off to a teammate. I don't care about these stats, what I do care about is that even though Gray is a much better forward, he still manages to get more center clearances, more clearances, and his possessions are more contested than Heppell, showing that most of his possessions are in tight and in the middle when he's not combining for 75 goal and goal assists in the year. Not bad eh?

 

[Halftimehero]

Yes, and given I find the effective possessions and DE% stats misleading, I don't really care. You get a whole lot of outside ball, it means your kicking is not under pressure. You get a whole lot of inside ball, it means you can handball off to a teammate. I don't care about these stats, what I do care about is that even though Gray is a much better forward, he still manages to get more center clearances, more clearances, and his possessions are more contested than Heppell, showing that most of his possessions are in tight and in the middle when he's not combining for 75 goal and goal assists in the year. Not bad eh?

You keep saying Gray is a better forward than Heppell, which I am not disputing and it is not my argument Heppell doesn't play as a forward, Gray does......... Gray would spend more time at centre bounces than Heppell so not suprising he averages 1 more clearance in there, as for normal clearances that has nothing to do with who is a better midfielder as they are can be won all over the ground.

 

[Richo83]

You keep saying Gray is a better forward than Heppell, which I am not disputing and it is not my argument Heppell doesn't play as a forward, Gray does......... Gray would spend more time at centre bounces than Heppell so not suprising he averages 1 more clearance in there, as for normal clearances that has nothing to do with who is a better midfielder as they are can be won all over the ground.

If Gray spends so much time up forward, why would he spend more time at center bounces? Why would he win more clearances? Why would he win more of his percentage of possessions as contested? Can't be all up forward. Maybe Gray is also winning ball in the middle too. Looks like Gray dominates up forward and in the middle. What a player, no wonder he won the AFLCA player of the year award.

 

[Halftimehero]

Yes, and given I find the effective possessions and DE% stats misleading, I don't really care. You get a whole lot of outside ball, it means your kicking is not under pressure. You get a whole lot of inside ball, it means you can handball off to a teammate. I don't care about these stats, what I do care about is that even though Gray is a much better forward, he still manages to get more center clearances, more clearances, and his possessions are more contested than Heppell, showing that most of his possessions are in tight and in the middle when he's not combining for 75 goal and goal assists in the year. Not bad eh?

I also reckon you will find you are basing your stats on one season, Dyson Heppell averages more clearances over his career, as well as Inside 50s, Rebound 50s, Contested Possessions, Uncontested Possessions, marks and tackles. The only area where Gray is ahead is of course the stats that you would expect a forward to be leading in.

 

[Richo83]

I also reckon you will find you are basing your stats on one season, Dyson Heppell averages more clearances over his career, as well as Inside 50s, Rebound 50s, Contested Possessions, Uncontested Possessions, marks and tackles. The only area where Gray is ahead is of course the stats that you would expect a forward to be leading in.

Considering Gray has missed a number of games with injuries over his career, using career averages is unfair to Gray, who has played a number of games not fully fit. You're scrambling.