History shows if you finish top 4 and lose the qualifying final week 1 you're gone.
There will be only two flag chances come Sunday first week Sept
There will be only two flag chances come Sunday first week Sept
Top 4 qualifying final - lose week 1 and flag hopes gone
- Thread starter Gavin Excell
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West Coast lost in '06 and made the Granny, Swan's lost in '05
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Not necessarily. Of recent times, the top two have been clearly above third and fourth. Hence that outcome.
That ain't the case this year. You could make a case for any of the top four winning the flag and on that basis, I don't think that trend is safe this year.
I'm sure the OP realised Geelong were no chance at 3QT of last year's prelim.
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yes ten years ago
no QF loser even made GF last 7 years let alone win the flag.
its cut throat week 1
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Swans lost in 05 and won
Ditto with west coast and 06
Ditto with west coast and 06
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we were going great guns but lost
history is something that needs to be acknowleged
Stats like this are useful, but are only indicative of what might happen. In a year where the top four are a bit closer there's no reason why a QF loser can't win.
If Freo beat Sydney in a QF, does Sydney have no chance against Geelong/Hawthorn at the MCG in a PF?
If Freo beat Sydney in a QF, does Sydney have no chance against Geelong/Hawthorn at the MCG in a PF?
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He is going under the assumption Sydney will win easily because they're that good and whoever loses Geelong/Hawthorn has to play Sydney in a Prelim Final in Sydney, whilst the winner will play Fremantle/Port at home in Melbourne.
Winners of this years qualifying finals' will more than likely play in the Grand Final.
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History shows Sydney in your example will be beaten yes
Yeah, i understand that - but you can't say that any loser of a QF doesn't have a chance of winning the flag. If Sydney lose, which is not a stretch, then I reckon they would still be a good bet to make the GF and win a flag.
Yes, winners of the QFs are the most likely to make the GF - but the OP is "lose week 1 and flag hopes gone". That's just ******* nonsense.
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My theory for this was that each team played an away PF against an opponent decimated by injury (St Kilda in 2005, Adelaide in 2006). Also I believe the better team overall ended up losing their respective QFs.
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Whoever loses Hawks vs Geelong QF wont win the flag, I bet my house on it. The loser would have to play and win a prelim in either Sydney or Perth.
No it doesn't. Recent history suggests that they probably wouldn't, but their flag hopes wouldn't be gone.
Is it more probable that the winners of the QFs play the GF? Of course - week off, home advantage in PF etc. But it won't work out like that every year, and the years that will buck the trend are likely to be those where 3rd/4th are closer in form/quality to 1st/2nd.
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Again history shows it is close to impossible
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- #16
Yes fair point etc etc but reality suggests week 1 QF losers cant win it
People talk abut elimination finals as do or die but that's small beer stuff, Reality is week 1 QF is the real cut throat
OP sounds a lot like me at the start of 1998 when I declared that in the modern world of AFL football, no team would ever again win back to back premierships.
I completely agree that the winners of the QFs win the PFs too - but I would be less confident of that assertion this year if, for instance, Geelong and Freo won the QFs. While any of the top 4 can win it, I think it would be more likely that the hawks/swans cause an upset in an interstate PF even against a fresh freo/geelong.
But it's all speculation. The hypothesis will be reinforced or undermined come PF weekend
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- #19
its all about averages. Simply put lose week one can't win flag.
Team will have to defy history to make it happen. Nothing subjective here
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All won the flag after losing the qualifier (beating their QF opponent in the GF).
So 21% of premiers dropped their first final (under the new system).
Sydney 2005
West Coast 2006
All won the flag after losing the qualifier (beating their QF opponent in the GF).
So 21% of premiers dropped their first final (under the new system).
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- #21
So when you said it "can't" be done....
DardySingh360
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It is interesting though, all three teams which have made a GF after losing their QF went on to win the flag.
Shows you need great mental resilience to bounce back after losing in week 1, the three sides who have done it were all outstandingly focused and well drilled sides.
Shows you need great mental resilience to bounce back after losing in week 1, the three sides who have done it were all outstandingly focused and well drilled sides.
If Geelong beat Hawthorn in the QF I would still back Sydney or Freo against them in a PF
You'd bet your house on a game of football? I don't think so.
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