Top 4 qualifying final - lose week 1 and flag hopes gone

[ep2018]

You'd bet your house on a game of football? I don't think so.

Figure of speech

 

[ep2018]

It is interesting though, all three teams which have made a GF after losing their QF went on to win the flag.

Shows you need great mental resilience to bounce back after losing in week 1, the three sides who have done it were all outstandingly focused and well drilled sides.

Also a fair amount of luck. Sydney played an injury riddled St Kilda in a preliminary in 2005, and we played an out of form, injury decimated Adelaide whos main ruckman did his knee just before half time. Not too sure on the circumstances of Brisbane in 2003.

 

[liz]

Also a fair amount of luck. Sydney played an injury riddled St Kilda in a preliminary in 2005, and we played an out of form, injury decimated Adelaide whos main ruckman did his knee just before half time. Not too sure on the circumstances of Brisbane in 2003.

Brisbane played us (ie the Swans) in their 2003 PF at ANZ Stadium. We stuck reasonably close to them until 3/4 time but they had too much class and blew us out of the water in the final term. That Sydney team was one that exceeded most expectations in 2003 to finish top 4 (a significant number of pundits tipped the Swans for the spoon that year at season start) and then went over to Adelaide and played out of their skins to defeat Port. Although the season laid the foundation for what came a couple of years later, I don't think we were really ready for a GF at that stage.

That said, the idea that history proves a QF loser can't win the premiership (or even make the GF) is clearly false. It's not going to happen every year, or even every other year. But it has happened often enough to show it is well within the bounds of possibility.

 

[juss]

Still think these early finals calls based on history are pointless. But with scores close at 3 quarter time it's anyones game. Anything could happen in the finals.

 

[Roobs321]

Such a crappy OP. Hell, it once happened 3 times in 4 years. Hopes are certainly dealt a blow, but to say they are 'gone' is just obnoxious, particularly in a year such as this.

 

[jwint43]

I just can't see it being anyone other then hawthorn and sydney, regardless of where they finish up. Reckon this might be a year to buck that trend

 

[WWSD]

The two winners of the qualifying final will be this years grand finalists.

Sydney/Fremantle vs Hawthorn/Geelong

 

[Air_Chester]

Getting a bit sick of these threads acting as if the finals series is a complete waste of time. Whether it not you think something is a foregone conclusion, let the premier PROVE it. That's what it's about. One of these days a team is going to triumph after four finals games and it's going to be glorious.

 

[Damon_3388]

Obviously we need to wait until it all plays out to see what happens, but I'd be perfectly happy with a three week, six team finals series, with every final being an eliminator, and the top 2 from the H&A season getting a bye in the first week.

 

[Sydney Bloods]

History shows if you finish top 4 and lose the qualifying final week 1 you're gone.

There will be only two flag chances come Sunday first week Sept

2012 hawks vs Crows a prime example that this is bullshit. Hawks were let's say, extremely lucky to win that Prelim.

A favourable bounce or a dubious free going to adelaide inside of Hawthorn and it could just have easily been a Crows vs Swans granny.

 

[Always Hawks]

2012 hawks vs Crows a prime example that this is bullshit. Hawks were let's say, extremely lucky to win that Prelim.

A favourable bounce or a dubious free going to adelaide inside of Hawthorn and it could just have easily been a Crows vs Swans granny.

For the sake of all the Adelaide fans on the board, let's not bring up the topic of dubious free kicks in that game.

 

[vonn]

Let's just not play anymore games - history has already dictated the result.

 

[captain peanut]

2012 hawks vs Crows a prime example that this is bullshit. Hawks were let's say, extremely lucky to win that Prelim.

A favourable bounce or a dubious free going to adelaide inside of Hawthorn and it could just have easily been a Crows vs Swans granny.

Yeah, or the hawks could just have kicked straight and won by 8 goals easing down

 

[caitsith01]

Not necessarily. Of recent times, the top two have been clearly above third and fourth. Hence that outcome.

Exactly - the teams who win those games tend to be the two best by a fair margin in a given year.

The same 'wisdom' as applies to the "first to 100" rule (in the vast majority of cases the team that is first to 100 is winning by a fair bit so of course they tend to win).

 

[GuzzLG]

In summary: The past 7 years can be used to predict the next infinity years.

 

[The Gong]

yes ten years ago

no QF loser even made GF last 7 years let alone win the flag.

its cut throat week 1

You can't invoke "history" and then selectively choose which part of history supports your argument. Three QF losers went on to win the flag in the past 11 years. That's recent history as far as I'm concerned so your initial premise is very flawed.

 

[Pessimistic]

Second and third are by definition closer together than first and fourth.

If the third team ca roll secong, they are in with a shout

"You realise youve cost us the game" springs to mind

 

[shintemaster]

Getting a bit sick of these threads acting as if the finals series is a complete waste of time. Whether it not you think something is a foregone conclusion, let the premier PROVE it. That's what it's about. One of these days a team is going to triumph after four finals games and it's going to be glorious.

I hope so and not just for the obvious reason that North are going to fall outside the top 4 this year. I actually think a win from a team placed 5-8 would not only be very exciting for the competition, but would also reinvigorate the comp as a whole. The last 10-15 years have been one long succession of priority picks, compensations, draft tinkering and strategic losing. The concept of a team winning from any finals position being realistic would be great for the competition IMHO.

 

[Leg End]

Yeah, or the hawks could just have kicked straight and won by 8 goals easing down

So if you don't kick, handball, run, pass straight, that's not pressure/choking/bad play, that's bad luck?
Please acknowledge that you understand how stupid your comment was.

 

[Nankervis brothers]

If Geelong beat Hawthorn in the QF I would still back Sydney or Freo against them in a PF

Should Geelong beat Hawthorn in the QF it is very unlikely they would play Sydney, as Sydney will almost certainly win their QF and be in the other PF. It would more than likey be a PF against Fremantle or Port, and it would be played at the G. That would make it even money, IMO.

 

[Dan26]

And remember, if Collingwood had kicked one more goal in the 2007 Preliminary Final, they would have gone on to with the premiership from 6th, after a 13 win H&A season and a percentage of 102%.

One day, someone will hot form at the right time, and do it from outside the top-4.

 

[Nankervis brothers]

One day, someone will hot form at the right time, and do it from outside the top-4.

Agree, it will happen eventually. But it will be a massive anomaly.

 

[Cobbler]

The two winners of the qualifying final will be this years grand finalists.

Sydney/Fremantle vs Hawthorn/Geelong

So Port out of the 4?

I'd be generally interested in how many outside the 4 play in a prelim.

I could easily see any of Port, Freo or North winning and knocking someone out in straight sets.

Interesting month and a bit ahead!

 

[Dan26]

Agree, it will happen eventually. But it will be a massive anomaly.

Think how many close week-2 semi finals there have been, where the losing Qualifying finalist has JUST won, by a very small margin.

West Coast by 3 over Carlton in 2011
Bulldogs by 5 over Sydney in 2010
Collingwood by 5 over Adelaide in 2009
Sydney by 3 over Geelong in 2005

And there have been at least 5 others decided by between one and two goals.

Of those above matches, I reckon Geelong would have gone on to win the premiership in 2005 if they had won that game.

And I think Carlton would have been some good chance in the 2011 Prelim against Geelong. Carlton had some good performances against the cats at the MCG a couple of years ago, and would had the same "nothing to lose mentality" that Collingwood had in their 2007 Prelim, except that Carlton in 2011 were much, much better than Collingwood in 2007.

An out of form Collingwood at the end of 2011 would have struggled to beat Carlton on Grand Final day.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

If Cats lose to Hawks, I can see us going out in strait sets. The loser of Freo/Swans I think can still make the GF as a bare minimum.