Top 8 locked in

Status
Not open for further replies.

Masto

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 19, 2009
6,515
3,381
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
Lets say both Pies and Tigers are only a 20% chance to win (statisically overstating it) and WC has a 60% chance to win .

The odds on all 3 happening (Pies and Tigers losing and WC winning) is roughly 25%.

I'd put the odds of Richmond beating Sydney in Sydney at about 2-3%. I'd put the odds of Collingwood beating Hawthorn at about 5-10%. I think 60-65% is about right for us. All up I think its about 50/50 we make it, maybe just under when we take Adelaide into account.
 

Cobbler

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 7, 2014
9,013
18,298
AFL Club
Fremantle
GC have nothing to play for. Winning to finish 9th or 10th will be of no value to them.

Eagles in a canter, Adelaide in a bigger canter.

Eagles to get through on percentage.

The Port - Freo game massive for potential derbies etc.
 

Bobblefighter

All Australian
Aug 23, 2014
667
1,036
AFL Club
Richmond
Yeah basically your no chance. I wouldn't be getting your hopes up. But don't worry, you can still finish 9th. :)

It's more giving an heavily depleted Pies side a better chance (4x times more likely) against the Hawks than us against the Swans. Yes, your opinion and all, but you can't blame him for questioning your reasons.
 
Lets say both Pies and Tigers are only a 20% chance to win (statisically overstating it) and WC has a 60% chance to win .

The odds on all 3 happening (Pies and Tigers losing and WC winning) is roughly 25%.
Uh, that would be a 73% chance of happening (80 + 80 + 60 = 220)
 

Bobblefighter

All Australian
Aug 23, 2014
667
1,036
AFL Club
Richmond
Uh, that would be a 73% chance of happening (80 + 80 + 60 = 220)

No it wouldn't. If WC was given a 60% chance to win, why would the odds be higher if you also had to take Richmond and Collingwood into account? If you need other factors to come to fruition, the odds have to drop.

so it would be 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.6, which comes out to a 38.4% chance of that happening.
 

Gizza

Premiership Player
Apr 29, 2008
3,788
2,504
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
No it wouldn't. If WC was given a 60% chance to win, why would the odds be higher if you also had to take Richmond and Collingwood into account? If you need other factors to come to fruition, the odds have to drop.

so it would be 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.6, which comes out to a 38.4% chance of that happening.
Haha, it's like no one else in this thread did high school maths.
 

Halftimehero

Cancelled
10k Posts
Jun 26, 2012
11,951
10,901
AFL Club
Essendon
If it makes it any clearer for people the odds on Sportsbet of Swans, Hawks and Eagles all winning next week are $2.03.
 
No it wouldn't. If WC was given a 60% chance to win, why would the odds be higher if you also had to take Richmond and Collingwood into account? If you need other factors to come to fruition, the odds have to drop.

so it would be 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.6, which comes out to a 38.4% chance of that happening.
Oh wow, that's the second time this week I've completely ****ed up a simple maths problem :oops:. I'm usually pretty good at maths
 
May 19, 2004
5,812
4,185
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
Yeah basically your no chance. I wouldn't be getting your hopes up. But don't worry, you can still finish 9th. :)


Might need to work on your basic comprehension.
No team almost ever in AFL footy or any two outcome event is 2-3% chance. Especially when top spot is likely locked in for them and they'll rest players.

Furthermore, its very doubtful we'll finish ninth. We would need the '2-3% chance' of beating swans to come off, and pies to beat hawks, but pies to grow their percentage by 8%- in one game, also likely more as we will likely get a % boost from the saints.
 
Jul 19, 2005
14,271
10,466
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
No it wouldn't. If WC was given a 60% chance to win, why would the odds be higher if you also had to take Richmond and Collingwood into account? If you need other factors to come to fruition, the odds have to drop.

so it would be 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.6, which comes out to a 38.4% chance of that happening.

Well s**t your right. I used 0.4 instead of 0.6.
 

Bobblefighter

All Australian
Aug 23, 2014
667
1,036
AFL Club
Richmond
Well s**t your right. I used 0.4 instead of 0.6.

He did make it confusing, posting the percentages of all teams winning, but making you have to swap around Richmond's and Collingwood's percentages around from 20% to 80% while leaving WCE's percentage alone to figure out the percentage of them reaching the 8.
 

Bobblefighter

All Australian
Aug 23, 2014
667
1,036
AFL Club
Richmond
only one you're getting, Swans to use R23 as a ego booster heading in finals 123-56 (30 points are junk time goals)

Oh, you're short-sighted if you think I haven't seen more than one minor victory before now.

OUR DESTINY IS IN OUR HANDS! Yay!

So if we lose the last round, we can't just look at other teams and say that we could have made it if not for them, we have to look at ourselves for once! No more pretending that everyone else is the problem!
 
Apr 7, 2012
18,188
13,947
Sydney
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Coney Island, GWS, The Exers!
Oh, you're short-sighted if you think I haven't seen more than one minor victory before now.

OUR DESTINY IS IN OUR HANDS! Yay!

So if we lose the last round, we can't just look at other teams and say that we could have made it if not for them, we have to look at ourselves for once! No more pretending that everyone else is the problem!

I hope and i'm being serious I hope hardwick comes to play this time. none of that sideways kicking s**t, your teams just not polished enough to try and be hawthorn. it's not a slight against your mob either there's no team in the league as smooth with the boot as the hawks. Just roll the dice is all i ask instead of that percentage s**t hardwick was trialing last time we met.
 

Bobblefighter

All Australian
Aug 23, 2014
667
1,036
AFL Club
Richmond
I hope and i'm being serious I hope hardwick comes to play this time. none of that sideways kicking s**t, your teams just not polished enough to try and be hawthorn. it's not a slight against your mob either there's no team in the league as smooth with the boot as the hawks. Just roll the dice is all i ask instead of that percentage s**t hardwick was trialing last time we met.

I hope Hardwick tries to be a bit more manic, and uses a bit more speed in his plan, but he loves the Hawks game plan, and tries to make the team fit that mold. It works against a lot of teams, but yeah, I agree, there's not enough polish to make it work against you guys. It's not like we can't be competitive against you guys, we proved it last time we met, we just need to keep a good 4-quarter effort instead of dying in the ass and end up playing a close game.
 
Apr 7, 2012
18,188
13,947
Sydney
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Coney Island, GWS, The Exers!
I hope Hardwick tries to be a bit more manic, and uses a bit more speed in his plan, but he loves the Hawks game plan, and tries to make the team fit that mold. It works against a lot of teams, but yeah, I agree, there's not enough polish to make it work against you guys. It's not like we can't be competitive against you guys, we proved it last time we met, we just need to keep a good 4-quarter effort instead of dying in the ass and end up playing a close game.

oh you will be competitive i just think it has limited potential in developing your list because the hawks themselves are already moving on from it. The hawks have modified theirs with run and pace only using it to "Reload" if you will. I think you're a better team when you don't worry about the pretty kicking game becomes so much tougher against a physical strong midfield.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back